Name: 特斯拉股價暴跌--埃隆-馬斯克陷入全面恐慌 (Tesla Stock is IMPLODING - Elon Musk goes into Full Panic)
Uploaded: 2025-08-15T17:50:04.000Z
Duration: 19 min 3 s

Tesla has been one of the worst performing stocks in the last 6 months.

特斯拉是過去 6 個月中表現最差的股票之一。

In fact, it has probably been the worst performing stock, and it's doing so bad that it seems like by the end of the year, the price of Tesla stock is going to be zero.

事實上，特斯拉可能是表現最差的股票，它的表現如此糟糕，以至於到今年年底，特斯拉股票的價格似乎將為零。

And that raises a lot of questions for Tesla investors.

這給特斯拉投資者帶來了很多問題。

How exactly did it lost over 50% of its value in just 6 months?

它究竟是如何在短短 6 個月內貶值 50%以上的？

埃隆-馬斯克真的會毀掉特斯拉嗎？

I don't think there is a single stock in the market that has been hit as much as Tesla.

我認為市場上沒有一隻股票像特斯拉一樣受到如此大的打擊。

On the other hand, it's supposed to be the other way around because Elon Musk right now is one of the most powerful people on the planet, he is the closest person to president Trump and people expected that when he is going to become president Trump, Elon Musk's Tesla is going to soar and will worth not just 1 trillion dollars but 2, 3, it will become the most valuable company on the planet earth.

另一方面，情況應該恰恰相反，因為埃隆-馬斯克現在是這個星球上最有權勢的人之一，他是特朗普總統最親近的人，人們預計，當他成為特朗普總統後，埃隆-馬斯克的特斯拉公司將飛速發展，價值將不僅僅是 1 萬億美元，而是 2、3 萬億美元，它將成為地球上最有價值的公司。

But something went wrong, so let's try to find out what exactly has happened in this video and also figure out what is next for Tesla stock.

但是出了點問題，所以讓我們試著找出這段視頻中到底發生了什麼，並弄清楚特斯拉股票的下一步走勢。

If you are ready, give this video a thumbs up and let's dive right into it.

如果您準備好了，請為這段視頻豎起大拇指，讓我們直接進入主題。

Just by looking at the graph, you can clearly see that it has been a complete rollercoaster.

只要看一下圖表，你就會清楚地看到，這完全是一場雲霄飛車。

Back at the peak, it has reached almost 500 dollars per stock, but right now it is being traded around 224 dollars.

在最高峰時，每隻股票曾達到近 500 美元，但現在的交易價格約為 224 美元。

The first thing that we have to do in order to find out what is happening with Tesla is to find out its true valuation.

要弄清特斯拉到底發生了什麼，我們首先要做的就是找出它的真實估值。

If we understand the true valuation of the company, then we can figure out what exactly the stock is headed to.

如果我們瞭解了公司的真實估值，那麼我們就能知道該股究竟會走向何方。

Now we cannot go into every single metric, but we are going to take only one basic metric to find out if the stock is overvalued or undervalued, and that will help us to determine where the stock is headed to, that will help us to figure out whether the stock is going to rise or it's going to fall or maybe it is fairly valued at the price that it is currently being traded.

現在，我們不能詳述每一個指標，但我們將只用一個基本指標來確定股票價值是否被高估或低估，這將幫助我們確定股票的走向，幫助我們弄清楚股票是會上漲還是會下跌，或者它目前的交易價格是否估值合理。

Now one of the basic metrics is of course PE ratio, and a lot of people have probably heard about that.

市盈率當然是基本指標之一，很多人可能都聽說過。

A PE ratio is a very simple metric where how much investors are willing to pay for every dollar that a company is earning.

市盈率是一個非常簡單的指標，表示投資者願意為公司賺取的每一美元支付多少錢。

So if the PE ratio is for example 25, then investors are paying 25 dollars for every dollar that a company earns.

舉例來說，如果市盈率是 25，那麼公司每賺取 1 美元，投資者就要支付 25 美元。

That leads a lot of people to wonder, why am I overpaying by 25 times for every dollar that the company is making.

這讓很多人不禁要問：為什麼公司每賺 1 美元，我就要多付 25 倍的錢。

And the logic behind it is that this company in the foreseeable future is going to grow much bigger and will make much more money, therefore the dollar that the company is earning is worth far more than the dollar that I have in my pocket.

這背後的邏輯是，這家公司在可預見的未來會發展得更大，賺的錢也會更多，是以公司賺的那一美元要比我口袋裡的那一美元值錢得多。

And we have different kind of ranges for different kind of industries, when it comes for example to auto companies, then we have a PE ratio of 5 to 10, maybe 15 in the best case scenario.

對於不同的行業，我們有不同的市盈率範圍，比如說汽車公司，我們的市盈率是 5 到 10，最好的情況可能是 15。

When it comes to technology, it's something between 15 to 30.

說到技術，大概在 15 到 30 之間。

Now the question is that, what is the PE ratio of Tesla?

現在的問題是，特斯拉的市盈率是多少？

And that means that investors are overpaying 110 dollars for every dollar that Tesla is earning.

這意味著，特斯拉每賺 1 美元，投資者就多付 110 美元。

And that is after the crash that Tesla has experienced.

而這還是在特斯拉經歷崩潰之後。

It's not that Tesla is at it's peak, if you go to it's peak, probably the PE ratio was something like 900 to a dollar or 1000 to a dollar, that was insane.

這並不是說特斯拉正處於巔峰，如果你去看看它的巔峰時期，市盈率可能是 900 比 1 美元或 1000 比 1 美元，那太瘋狂了。

Anybody with basic understanding of investing and finance would tell you that, that was an extremely overvalued stock.

任何一個對投資和金融有基本瞭解的人都會告訴你，那是一隻被極度高估的股票。

But that's not the only thing that we want to pay attention to, what we want to find out that, if we actually give it a proper PE ratio to Tesla, what could be it's real price today.

但這並不是我們要關注的唯一問題，我們想知道的是，如果我們給特斯拉一個合適的市盈率，它現在的真實價格會是多少。

Now in order to find that out, we have to first of all take the PE ratio and we have to multiply it by the EPS.

現在，為了弄清這個問題，我們必須首先用市盈率乘以每股收益。

Now and that will give us the price of the stock.

現在，我們就可以得到股票的價格。

Now EPS is earnings per share, we are going to take the total earnings of the company and we will divide it by the number of outstanding shares and that is going to be our EPS.

EPS 即每股收益，我們將公司的總收益除以已發行股票的數量，這就是我們的 EPS。

If we take our PE ratio and we will multiply it by the EPS, we will get the current stock price.

如果我們用市盈率乘以每股收益，就能得出當前的股價。

Earnings per share is 2 dollars and 4 cents, I have the graph right over here, you can literally check the earnings per share for Tesla for it's entire history.

每股收益是 2 美元 4 美分，我這裡有圖表，你可以查看特斯拉整個歷史上的每股收益。

So if we are taking 2 dollars of EPS and we will multiply it by the current PE ratio, we are getting 224 dollars and that is pretty much the price that Tesla is being traded right now.

是以，如果我們用 2 美元的每股收益乘以當前的市盈率，就可以得到 224 美元，這差不多就是特斯拉現在的交易價格。

But now, let's do something very interesting.

但現在，讓我們來做一件非常有趣的事情。

Let's give Tesla a fair PE ratio as it's industry, and that is 25.

讓我們給特斯拉一個公平的行業市盈率，那就是 25。

Because anything more than 25 is most likely overvalued even for a tech company unless it's a startup that has a lot of huge aspirational dreams to achieve something huge.

因為即使是科技公司，超過 25 美元的估值也很可能過高，除非它是一家懷揣著實現巨大夢想的初創公司。

Exactly, that's how Tesla positions itself.

But anyways, let's take a PE ratio of 25 multiplied by the EPS that we have which is a little over 2 dollars and that will give us 51 dollars per share.

但不管怎樣，讓我們用 25 的市盈率乘以 2 美元多一點的每股收益，得出每股 51 美元。

So at fair valuation, if we take just one metric, which is PE ratio in this case, Tesla shouldn't worth more than 51 dollars per stock, but the price right now is around 230 dollars or probably 235 dollars.

是以，在合理估值的情況下，如果我們只用一個指標，即本例中的市盈率，特斯拉每股價值不應超過 51 美元，但現在的價格約為 230 美元或可能是 235 美元。

So if you are wondering why on earth did Tesla stock has crashed from 500 dollars to as little as 230 dollars, well, let me tell you something, it's supposed to crash much more than that, it's supposed to go to 50 dollars.

如果你想知道為什麼特斯拉的股價會從 500 美元跌到 230 美元，那麼讓我告訴你，它應該跌得更厲害，應該跌到 50 美元。

But wait a second, Tesla isn't in a position that Apple is, for example, Tesla is still in that position where it has a lot of potential to grow.

但等一下，特斯拉的處境並不像蘋果那樣，例如，特斯拉仍處於有很大發展潛力的位置。

They are trying to make an argument that we are still a little company that is going to grow significantly over the years and that is why a 25 PE ratio doesn't apply to us.

他們試圖提出的理由是，我們仍然是一家小公司，在未來幾年內還會大幅增長，是以 25 的市盈率對我們並不適用。

So let's take something a little more than that.

所以，讓我們來看看比這更多一點的東西。

If you look at the PE ratio of Nvidia, it's around 40.

如果你看一下 Nvidia 的市盈率，大約是 40。

And some people say that Nvidia is overvalued.

So let's take it slightly more than that and give it a PE ratio of 50.

是以，我們把它的市盈率略高於這個數字，定為 50。

At that PE ratio, the price of Tesla stock should be 81 dollars.

按照這個市盈率，特斯拉股票的價格應該是 81 美元。

Which means that the price right now is still massively overvalued.

這意味著現在的價格仍然被嚴重高估。

Do you see why people are not, why professional investors are not freaking out why Tesla stock has crashed?

你明白為什麼人們沒有、為什麼專業投資者沒有對特斯拉股價暴跌感到恐慌了嗎？

So the question is that, how much Tesla should be earning in order to justify the current stock price.

那麼問題來了，特斯拉應該賺多少錢才能證明目前的股價是合理的。

If we don't want Tesla to be overvalued at all, then we will take a PE ratio of 25.

如果我們根本不希望特斯拉被高估，那麼我們就會把市盈率定為 25。

And that means that they need an EPS of 10 dollars in order to justify the current price.

這意味著，他們需要 10 美元的每股收益才能證明目前的價格是合理的。

Their current earnings are 2 dollars and 4 cents.

他們目前的收入是 2 美元 4 分。

Which means that they have to grow their earnings 5 times in order to justify their price.

這意味著，它們的盈利必須增長 5 倍才能證明其價格合理。

Right now, their earnings are a little over 7 billion dollars.

目前，他們的收入略高於 70 億美元。

Which means that they have to be earning 35 billion dollars in order to justify the price that they have right now after it has crashed by over 50 percent.

這意味著，他們必須賺到 350 億美元，才能證明他們現在的價格是合理的，因為他們的價格已經下跌了 50%。

你知道特斯拉的估值有多高嗎？

But again, we are going to be a bit more generous with Elon Musk, we are going to be a bit more generous with Tesla investors because I think I will get bombarded with negative comments from people who have invested in Tesla.

不過，我們還是要對埃隆-馬斯克寬容一點，對特斯拉的投資者寬容一點，因為我想我會受到投資特斯拉的人的負面評論的轟炸。

Let me tell you something, I am also an investor in Tesla.

告訴你吧，我也是特斯拉的投資者。

At PE ratio 50, the earnings per share should be something around 4.5 in order to justify the current price.

按市盈率 50 計算，每股收益應在 4.5 左右，這樣才能證明目前的價格是合理的。

And that means that they have to double their earnings and earn at least almost 15 billion dollars.

這意味著他們的收入必須翻番，至少要賺近 150 億美元。

And that leads a lot of people to ask the question, why on earth then, the Tesla stock being so overvalued, it still has grown so much to almost 500 dollars per share.

這讓很多人不禁要問，特斯拉的股價被高估了這麼多，但它仍然增長到每股近 500 美元，這究竟是為什麼呢？

Like think about it, if the market is filled with so many smart, intelligent investors, and its very easy to find out its true valuation, well, maybe not that easy, but any great investor would know that.

想想看，如果市場上有這麼多聰明睿智的投資者，那麼要找出市場的真實估值就非常容易了，也許沒那麼容易，但任何偉大的投資者都會知道這一點。

Why on earth people still kept buying Tesla stock even though they knew that its overvalued stock.

為什麼人們明知特斯拉股票價值被高估，卻仍然不斷購買？

In fact, if you look at the data, you will find out that there are actually hedge funds, wall street investors who poured millions, tens of millions of dollars into Tesla stock.

事實上，如果你看一下數據，就會發現實際上有對沖基金、華爾街投資者向特斯拉股票投入了數百萬、數千萬美元。

Why do they do that when they know that Tesla is overvalued?

既然他們知道特斯拉估值過高，為什麼還要這麼做？

And the answer to that question is, the way that Elon Musk is being paid.

這個問題的答案就是，埃隆-馬斯克的薪酬方式。

Elon Musk is not getting a direct paycheck for his position to be at Tesla.

埃隆-馬斯克在特斯拉的職位並不直接領取薪水。

His paycheck is directly tied to the performance of Tesla.

他的薪水與特斯拉的業績直接掛鉤。

So we have different kind of KPIs, Key Performance Indicators.

是以，我們有不同的 KPI（關鍵績效指標）。

If Tesla is going to achieve certain milestone, then Elon Musk is going to get paid a certain amount of money.

如果特斯拉要達到某個里程碑，那麼埃隆-馬斯克就會得到一筆錢。

Or he will be able to receive certain amount of shares because he achieved those indicators.

或者說，因為他達到了這些指標，就能獲得一定數量的股份。

And one of the examples that I will give you will illustrate everything to you.

我要舉的一個例子就能說明一切。

There was a 10 year plan from 2018 to 2028 and there were 12 milestone for Tesla to achieve.

從 2018 年到 2028 年的 10 年計劃中，特斯拉要實現 12 個里程碑。

If you will be able to achieve this milestone for Tesla, we are holding Tesla shares.

如果您能為特斯拉實現這一里程碑，我們將持有特斯拉股票。

If Tesla capitalization is going to go to 650 million dollars or billion dollars in this case, then our shares are going to grow.

如果特斯拉的市值達到 6.5 億美元或 10 億美元，那麼我們的股票就會增長。

If you can take company to that milestone, if you can take company to become so huge, then you will be able to buy 101 million Tesla shares at the current price.

如果你能把公司帶到那個里程碑，如果你能把公司變得如此龐大，那麼你就能以目前的價格購買 1.01 億股特斯拉股票。

So if the current price is for example 10 dollars or 100 dollars and then Tesla stock goes to 500 dollars, then suddenly when he achieved that goal, Elon Musk will be able to exercise his stock option and buy Tesla shares at 100 dollars and then sell them at an open market for 500 dollars.

是以，如果目前的價格是 10 美元或 100 美元，而特斯拉的股價漲到 500 美元，那麼當他實現這一目標時，埃隆-馬斯克就可以行使股票期權，以 100 美元的價格買入特斯拉股票，然後在公開市場上以 500 美元的價格賣出。

But because Tesla went through multiple stock splits, and a stock split is basically when you have a stock price actually going so high, then the company decides to split that stock.

但是，由於特斯拉經歷了多次股票拆分，而股票拆分基本上是指當你的股價實際漲得很高時，公司決定拆分股票。

So for example, if the price of the stock is reaching 1000 dollars and then the company is going to go for a stock split 2 to 1, then each stock will be divided into 2 stocks and each stock will worth 500 dollars.

舉例來說，如果股票價格達到 1000 美元，然後公司將進行 2 比 1 的股票分割，那麼每隻股票將被分割成 2 只股票，每隻股票價值 500 美元。

Nothing fundamentally changed, but the number of stocks in the market simply has increased and that makes the stock much more liquid in the financial system or in the stock market.

沒有什麼根本性的變化，只是市場上的股票數量增加了，這使得股票在金融體系或股市中的流動性大大提高。

So if you actually do the math for the stock splits, then the current price is going to be 15 dollars that Elon Musk should be able to buy the stocks of Tesla.

是以，如果你真的計算了股票分割，那麼目前的價格將是埃隆-馬斯克能夠購買特斯拉股票的 15 美元。

This is when you start to understand why Tesla stock has grown so much.

這時候，你就會明白為什麼特斯拉的股票會增長如此之快。

The motivation of Elon Musk is not to literally make a lot of money for Tesla.

埃隆-馬斯克的動機並不是要為特斯拉賺大錢。

The motivation for Elon Musk in order to get the company to a position where he will get his stock compensations.

埃隆-馬斯克（Elon Musk）的動機是讓公司達到他能獲得股票補償的地位。

Again, I am not trash talking Tesla, I am not trash talking Elon Musk, but I am simply explaining the logic behind it.

我再次重申，我不是在說特斯拉的壞話，也不是在說埃隆-馬斯克的壞話，我只是在解釋它背後的邏輯。

And Elon Musk understands how to grow a market capitalization better than anyone else.

埃隆-馬斯克比任何人都更瞭解如何擴大市值。

Because if you look at the market, you see, when you are getting into the market, you are paying for potential future profits.

因為如果你看看市場，你就會發現，當你進入市場時，你是在為未來的潛在利潤買單。

It's not about today, it's about the future.

這不是今天的問題，而是未來的問題。

And the future isn't always guaranteed, yes, there are investments that are pretty much guaranteed, so you can go and buy a property and invest in real estate.

未來並不總是有保障的，是的，有一些投資是基本有保障的，所以你可以去購買房產，投資房地產。

But how much can you possibly get from real estate, 6 percent, 7 percent, maybe, best case scenario, you will get 10 percent, maybe slightly more than that.

但是，你能從房地產中得到多少呢？6%、7%，也許，最好的情況是，你能得到 10%，也許略高於這個數字。