Name: "大多數人不知道未來會發生什麼"--沃倫-巴菲特的最後警告 ("Most People Have No Idea What Is Coming" – Warren Buffett's Last WARNING)
Uploaded: 2025-08-12T18:23:17.000Z
Duration: 9 min 39 s

The entire stock market is crushing and there is one guy who is not surprised at all.

整個股市都崩潰了，而有一個人卻一點也不驚訝。

This guy was preparing for a stock market disaster for the last 2 years.

這傢伙在過去兩年裡一直在為股市災難做準備。

情態副詞

And he wasn't just preparing with words, he was massively selling every stock he has in his portfolio.

他不只是在口頭上做準備，還在大規模拋售他投資組合中的所有股票。

If you look at Warren Buffett, the entire 2024, he spent the entire year literally just selling as much stocks as he can possibly do.

如果你看看沃倫-巴菲特（Warren Buffett），整個 2024 年，他都在儘可能多地拋售股票。

And he was one of the largest holders in Apple.

他是蘋果公司最大的股東之一。

And Apple stock was at the top, the valuation of Apple reached like 3.6 or 3.7 trillion dollars back at the peak of 2024.

而蘋果股票在 2024 年達到頂峰時，其估值達到 3.6 或 3.7 萬億美元。

And he was like selling billions of dollars.

Just last year, he sold like 75 billion dollars just worth of Apple stocks.

就在去年，他賣出了價值 750 億美元的蘋果股票。

And people thought that the guy is simply getting old and that's why he is just trying to sell as much as possible, he is just preparing himself for a retirement.

人們認為，這傢伙只是老了，所以才想儘可能多地出售，他只是在為退休做準備。

But everybody was wrong because he was preparing the entire Berkshire Hathaway for a financial disaster.

但所有人都錯了，因為他是在為整個伯克希爾哈撒韋公司的金融災難做準備。

And I made a video about his annual letter to the shareholders and he said that he is worried about the United States, he is worried about the debt, he is worried about the political landscape of the United States.

我製作了一個關於他每年致股東信的視頻，他說他對美國感到擔憂，他對債務感到擔憂，他對美國的政治格局感到擔憂。

As if the entire world was making money in the stock market and nobody could actually just stop for a moment and just look far into the future.

就好像全世界都在股票市場上賺錢，沒有人能真正停下來，遠眺未來。

And when you look at Apple stock right now that has crashed by 27 percent, remember all this time, Warren Buffett spent simply selling as much as possible, so basically he saved himself dozens of billions of dollars.

當你看到蘋果股票現在已經暴跌 27% 的時候，請記住，巴菲特在這段時間裡只是儘可能多地拋售股票，所以基本上他為自己節省了數百億美元。

If he could actually wait it until this year and he started selling, he wouldn't make as much money as he did last year.

如果他真的能等到今年開始銷售，他就不會像去年那樣賺那麼多錢了。

Isn't it genius that he predicted that Trump is going to win the presidency and then he predicted that Trump is going to start a trade war and then he predicted that he is going to start massive tariffs against the rest of the world that are going to cause massive stock market crash just like its happening right now.

他預言特朗普將贏得總統大選，然後又預言特朗普將發動貿易戰，接著又預言他將對世界其他國家徵收大規模關稅，從而導致大規模股市崩盤，就像現在發生的一樣，這難道不是天才的預言嗎？

And the stock market crash that's happening right now is just the beginning, imagine what's coming in the next couple of weeks or maybe in the next couple of years.

現在發生的股市崩盤僅僅是個開始，想象一下未來幾周，甚至未來幾年會發生什麼吧。

Because Trump wants to reshape the entire global world order, especially the trade order and that could mean that a lot of these companies are going to lose billions of dollars and Apple, where he was one of the largest investors in that company, now has to reshape its entire business model and start manufacturing their iPhones in the United States in order to avoid the 34 percent tariff that Trump has imposed on everything that comes from China.

因為特朗普想要重塑整個全球世界秩序，尤其是貿易秩序，這可能意味著很多公司將損失數十億美元，而蘋果公司（他曾是該公司最大的投資者之一）現在不得不重塑整個商業模式，開始在美國生產 iPhone，以避免特朗普對所有來自中國的產品徵收 34% 的關稅。

Like iPhones, 90 percent of all iPhones right now are being manufactured in China and their prices are going to significantly rise in the United States.

就像 iPhone 一樣，目前 90% 的 iPhone 都在中國生產，而它們在美國的價格將大幅上漲。

And these are not just iPhones, these are the Macbooks, these are the iPads or anything that Apple basically manufactures.

這些不僅僅是 iPhone，還有 Macbook、iPad 或任何蘋果公司生產的產品。

He also massively sold a lot of Bank of America stocks, and that's insane because he was selling right here and right now the stock is down by like 20 percent, probably more than that and you can clearly see that.

他還大量拋售了美國銀行的股票，這太瘋狂了，因為他就在這裡拋售，現在股價下跌了 20%，可能還不止，你可以清楚地看到這一點。

Maybe by the end of the year, the Bank of America and Apple, both of them will end up losing at least half of their value and Apple will go to 2 trillion dollar valuation, imagine from 3.7 trillion dollars to 2 trillion dollars and you are perfectly timing the market.

也許到今年年底，美國銀行和蘋果公司最終都會損失至少一半的價值，而蘋果公司的估值將達到 2 萬億美元，想象一下，從 3.7 萬億美元到 2 萬億美元，你完美地把握了市場時機。

And that's how genius Warren Buffet is, because his investing strategy isn't based on reacting to market events, but his business strategy or investing strategy is to master the fundamentals and take what's happening around the stock market and make an analysis that is much farther than the immature investors are actually doing.

沃倫-巴菲特就是這樣的天才，因為他的投資策略不是基於對市場事件的反應，而是他的商業策略或投資策略是掌握基本面，並對股市周圍發生的事情進行分析，這比那些不成熟的投資者實際做的要遠得多。

So he was preparing for 2025 back in 2024, just like when he was preparing for the 2008 financial crisis.

是以，他早在 2024 年就開始為 2025 年做準備，就像他為 2008 年金融危機做準備一樣。

And back then, he was when the crisis hit, he was like with billions of dollars and he started buying all of these companies at penis.

危機爆發時，他身家數十億美元，開始大肆收購這些公司。

And right now, Warren Buffet is sitting on 324 billion dollars worth of cash.

而現在，沃倫-巴菲特坐擁價值 3240 億美元的現金。

Nobody has as much cash as Warren Buffet.

沒有人比巴菲特擁有更多的現金。

And if things continue the way that Trump is actually keeping them, Apple is literally going to hit the rock bottom.

如果事情繼續按照特朗普的方式發展下去，蘋果公司真的會跌入谷底。

Apple is literally going to go to 2 trillion dollars, 1.5 trillion dollars.

蘋果公司的市值將達到 2 萬億美元或 1.5 萬億美元。

And that's when Warren Buffet literally jump in and buy Apple stocks massively and make again billions of dollars.

這時，沃倫-巴菲特（Warren Buffet）跳了出來，大舉買入蘋果股票，再次賺取數十億美元。

He is going to buy Apple stocks in 2025 or in 2026, depends on when this madness is going to end, as if you are buying Apple stocks back in 2014, back in 2015, when Apple was just skyrocketing and becoming the most valuable company in the world.

他將在 2025 年或 2026 年買入蘋果股票，這取決於這種瘋狂何時結束，就好像你在 2014 年、2015 年買入蘋果股票一樣，那時蘋果剛剛躥升，成為全球最有價值的公司。

And what's insane is that he took all of that money and he bought a lot of treasury bills.

更瘋狂的是，他拿著這些錢買了很多國庫券。

Treasury bills are government bonds, and he focused on buying 6-month government bonds.

國庫券是政府債券，他主要購買 6 個月的政府債券。

So you took all of that money, you buy government bonds that pay your interest rate.

所以，你拿著所有的錢，購買政府債券，支付你的利息。

But the yields of government bonds have gone from around 5.5% back when Warren Buffet was buying them to around 4.1%.

但政府債券的收益率已從巴菲特購買債券時的 5.5% 左右降至 4.1% 左右。

And the reason behind it is that because of the market crash right now, a lot of investors pulling out their money from the stock market and investing it in the safe havens.

這背後的原因是，由於目前的市場崩潰，很多投資者從股市撤出資金，將其投資於避風港。

But since the demand for treasury bills are rising dramatically, as obviously the yields are going to go down, and nobody is going to get as much returns as Warren Buffet.

但由於對國庫券的需求急劇上升，收益率顯然會下降，沒有人會像巴菲特那樣獲得那麼多回報。

Because Warren Buffet was buying those treasury bills when no one is actually buying them, and that's when the yields were much higher, that's when the yields were around 5.5%.

因為沃倫-巴菲特是在沒人買國庫券的時候買的，那時候的收益率要高得多，收益率在 5.5%左右。

Right now, the yields are significantly lower than that.

現在，收益率明顯低於這個水準。

This is the warning that Warren Buffet gave everybody last year.

這是沃倫-巴菲特去年向所有人發出的警告。

He literally just hinted slightly on it, but most investors did not take it seriously.

他只是稍微暗示了一下，但大多數投資者並沒有當真。

And that's the problem with most investors.

這就是大多數投資者的問題所在。

Everybody is greedy, everybody is trying to make as much money as possible right now, and nobody is actually thinking about the next opportunity.

每個人都很貪婪，每個人都想在當下儘可能多地賺錢，沒有人真正考慮下一個機會。

And it's really insane that the guy is almost 100 years old and he's still thinking long term and he's still thinking to take advantage out of the next crisis instead of making as much money as possible today.

這個人都快 100 歲了，還在考慮長遠的問題，還在考慮從下一次危機中獲利，而不是在今天儘可能多地賺錢，這真的是太瘋狂了。

And that's the investing strategy that you have to change in yourself.

這就是你必須改變自己的投資策略。

That's the mentality that you should have in the market.

這就是你在市場上應該有的心態。

Because everybody jumps into the market, and I want to make as much money as possible right now, today, when the market is growing.

因為每個人都跳入市場，而我想在市場增長的今天，現在就儘可能多地賺錢。

And then the market is crushes, and everybody panics, and everybody starts selling their  And at the end of the day, 90% of all stock market investors are losing money, while the top 10% gets richer, while everybody else gets poorer.

到最後，90% 的股市投資者都在虧損，而前 10%的人變得更富有，其他人變得更貧窮。

You are maybe 20, 30, 40 years old, and you are not as patient as Warren Buffet who is almost 100 years old.

你可能只有 20、30 或 40 歲，而且不像巴菲特那樣有耐心，他已經快 100 歲了。

Maybe this is the time to actually appreciate his patience, appreciate his long-term strategy and start acting the same way.

也許現在是時候真正欣賞他的耐心，欣賞他的長期戰略，並開始採取同樣的行動了。

He even hinted at the fact that the stability of the dollar is in danger, and when the stability of the dollar is in danger, the entire economy of the United States is in danger.

他甚至暗示，美元的穩定性面臨危險，而當美元的穩定性面臨危險時，整個美國的經濟都會面臨危險。

However, the dollar is not going to crash overnight, if anything is going to happen to the dollar, any kind of devaluation is going to happen, it's going to take years if not decades.

然而，美元不會在一夜之間崩潰，如果美元要發生任何事情，任何形式的貶值都會發生，這將需要數年甚至數十年的時間。

Now while everybody is massively going to sell their stocks, Warren Buffet is going to take his $324 billion worth of cash and he will start massively buying stocks.

現在，當所有人都在大舉拋售股票時，沃倫-巴菲特卻要拿著價值 3240 億美元的現金，開始大舉買入股票。

And these stocks, a year from now, two years from now, are going to shoot to the roof, and Warren Buffet's net worth is going to go to what, $200 billion, $300 billion, and he certainly yet again is going to become one of the richest people in the world.

而這些股票，一年後，兩年後，將一飛沖天，沃倫-巴菲特的淨資產將達到 2,000 億或 3,000 億美元，他肯定會再次成為世界上最富有的人之一。

And that's the mentality that you actually should have in your mind, that is how you actually make money in the stock market, when you are patient, when you master the fundamentals, when you master the investing strategy, and you are not rushing.

當你有耐心，當你掌握了基本面，當你掌握了投資策略，當你不急於求成時，這才是你真正應該有的心態，這才是你在股市中真正賺錢的方式。

And this is right now, is probably one of the greatest opportunities for anybody to take investing seriously, because we don't know how far or how long this crisis is going to last.

現在可能是任何人認真對待投資的最好機會之一，因為我們不知道這場危機會持續多久。

If you look at what JP Morgan says, if you look at what every other economist expects, the United States is about to hit a recession, and just recently, the chairman of the fed made it clear that the United States expects massive inflation because of those tariffs.

如果你看看摩根大通的說法，如果你看看其他所有經濟學家的預期，美國即將陷入衰退，而就在最近，美聯儲主席明確表示，由於這些關稅，美國預計將出現大規模通脹。

The Federal Reserve did not expect what Trump is about to do, and Trump launched the greatest trade war and is going to shoot prices to the roof.

美聯儲沒有預料到特朗普即將採取的行動，特朗普發動了最大規模的貿易戰，並將把物價推向頂峰。

The current stock market crash isn't going to stop instantly, because now companies have to diversify their entire business models, they have to not simply just get out of China just like they did back during the first Trump presidency when he started the trade war, they cannot possibly simply shift or move their manufacturing to another country, they have to move it back to the United States, or they have to rebuild their entire business models.

當前的股市暴跌並不會立即停止，因為現在企業必須實現整個商業模式的多元化，它們不能像特朗普首任總統期間發動貿易戰時那樣簡單地撤出中國，它們不可能簡單地將製造業轉移或遷移到其他國家，它們必須將製造業遷回美國，或者它們必須重建整個商業模式。

I am not sure how exactly that's going to be, one way maybe it's going to be that Apple is going to produce the iPhones for the United States in the United States, but for the rest of the world, they are going to manufacture iPhones keep in China, because that is where you can actually minimize or lower down your costs as much as possible.

我不清楚具體會是怎樣，一種可能是蘋果將在美國生產 iPhone，但對於世界其他地區，他們將在中國生產 iPhone，因為在中國可以最大限度地減少或降低成本。

If you bring back the entire manufacturing of iPhone to the United States, and then you ship it from the United States to the rest of the world, it doesn't make sense, and if you look at the sales of Apple, 50% of it actually comes from the rest of the world and not the United States, so it makes sense to change your entire business model where what you sell in the US will be built in the US, while everything else will be built outside the United States.

如果你把 iPhone 的整個製造過程帶回美國，然後再從美國運往世界其他地方，這是說不通的。如果你看一下蘋果公司的銷售額，50% 實際上來自世界其他地方，而不是美國，是以改變整個商業模式是有意義的，在美國銷售的產品將在美國製造，而其他所有產品都將在美國以外製造。

And that might be the strategy that every company is going to follow, but I am sure that different companies are going to be very creative with their manufacturing, with the way they deal with their businesses, and some of these companies will come out extremely victorious and their stock prices are going to shoot to the roof, so make sure that you do not miss this opportunity.

這可能是每家公司都會採取的策略，但我相信，不同的公司在生產和經營方式上都會非常有創意，其中一些公司會取得巨大的勝利，股價也會一飛沖天，所以一定不要錯過這個機會。

This is the opportunity that Warren Buffett was waiting and he is going to make a ton of money out of it.

這是巴菲特一直在等待的機會，他將從中賺得盆滿缽滿。

That's it for today, thanks for watching and I will see you in the next one.

今天就到這裡，感謝您的收看，我們下期再見。