Name: 六月將出現大崩盤--股市將再次崩盤 (Massive Crash Ahead in June - The Stock Market Will Crash Again)
Uploaded: 2025-08-02T17:59:58.000Z
Duration: 12 min 21 s

A massive stock market crash is coming in June.

6 月份，一場大規模的股市崩盤即將來臨。

轉承詞

And that's because of Donald Trump's announcement that he is going to impose a 50 percent tariff on the entire European Union.

這是因為唐納德-特朗普宣佈將對整個歐盟徵收 50% 的關稅。

基礎被動語態

And as Trump himself says that, European Union was created to take advantage out of the United States.

正如特朗普自己所說，歐盟的成立就是為了從美國身上佔便宜。

The European Union is the largest trading partner of the United States, much larger than Canada, Mexico, or even China where there was a huge trading balance between the two countries.

歐盟是美國最大的貿易伙伴，比加拿大、墨西哥甚至中國都要大得多。

And the trade between the United States and the European Union is almost a trillion dollars, which makes it the largest trading partner in the world.

美國和歐盟之間的貿易額接近一萬億美元，是世界上最大的貿易伙伴。

So any kind of a trade war between these two continents is going to have devastating implications on the entire stock market.

是以，這兩大洲之間的任何形式的貿易戰都將對整個股市產生破壞性影響。

So here in this video, let's explore what are the chances of this trade war to have serious implications on the stock market, which stocks are going to suffer, which stocks are going to grow, and how long this trade war is going to last.

是以，在這段視頻中，我們將探討這場貿易戰對股市產生嚴重影響的可能性有多大，哪些股票會受到影響，哪些股票會增長，以及這場貿易戰會持續多久。

So if you are ready, give this video a thumbs up and let's get right into it.

所以，如果你準備好了，請為這段視頻豎起大拇指，讓我們馬上進入正題。

It's true that the United States spent hundreds of billions of dollars helping and supporting the European continent, but it wasn't out of generosity.

美國確實花費了數千億美元幫助和支持歐洲大陸，但這並非出於慷慨。

After world war 2 where most of these European countries were entirely decimated and destroyed, the United States was afraid that they will be under the influence of the Soviet Union, so it was much better for the US to provide all of these loans to these countries and help them to rebuild them.

第二次世界大戰後，這些歐洲國家大多被徹底摧毀，美國擔心它們會受到蘇聯的影響，是以美國向這些國家提供了所有這些貸款，幫助它們重建。

And in exchange, the United States got political allies, trade partners, and countries that are under the influence of the United States and not the Soviet Union.

作為交換，美國得到了政治盟友、貿易伙伴以及受美國而非蘇聯影響的國家。

Eventually, European countries created the European bloc, and today their economy is almost as large as the economy of the United States, and they can stand up to the United States, China, and Russia.

最終，歐洲國家創建了歐洲集團，如今其經濟規模幾乎與美國經濟規模相當，可以與美國、中國和俄羅斯抗衡。

In fact, if you take it at the purchasing power parity, then the GDP of the European Union is almost as large as the United States.

事實上，如果按購買力平價計算，歐盟的國內生產總值幾乎與美國相當。

So bullying the European Union is not going to work just like the United States bullied the UK into signing such a horrible trade deal.

是以，欺負歐盟是行不通的，就像美國欺負英國簽署瞭如此可怕的貿易協議一樣。

I still can't believe that they have signed that.

我仍然不敢相信，他們竟然簽了這個字。

But the real question is that, is the European Union actually taking advantage of the United States just like China did over the last 20 to 30 years.

但真正的問題是，歐盟是否真的像中國在過去二三十年所做的那樣，利用了美國的優勢。

The United States sold to the European Union 347 billion dollars or euros worth of products.

美國向歐盟出售了價值 3 470 億美元或歐元的產品。

On the other side, European Union sold to the United States 503 billion euros worth of products.

另一方面，歐盟向美國出售了價值 5030 億歐元的產品。

So that leads to both countries with a deficit of 156 billion dollars.

是以，兩國的赤字都達到了 1560 億美元。

So European Union is literally selling to the United States over 150 billion euros worth of products that they are buying from the United States.

是以，歐盟實際上是在向美國出售價值超過1500億歐元的產品，而這些產品都是從美國購買的。

It means that Trump is right and there is a huge trade imbalance and huge tariffs must be imposed in order to correct this problem.

這意味著特朗普是對的，存在著巨大的貿易不平衡，必須徵收鉅額關稅才能糾正這一問題。

Because countries don't simply sell to each other cars, engines, and trucks, there are also services, such as banking services, digital products.

因為各國之間不僅僅是出售汽車、發動機和卡車，還有服務，如銀行服務、數字產品。

What do you think Apple is selling besides iPhone?

除了 iPhone，你認為蘋果還在賣什麼？

How about Google that sells hundreds of billions of dollars worth of ads to the entire world?

向全世界銷售價值數千億美元廣告的谷歌又如何呢？

So if we consider services, in 2023, the European Union imported 427 billion dollars worth of services from the United States, while they sold to the United States 318 billion euros worth of services.

是以，如果我們考慮服務業，2023 年，歐盟將從美國進口價值 4270 億美元的服務，同時向美國出售價值 3180 億歐元的服務。

That means that the European Union purchased from the United States over 108 billion euros worth of services than they sold to the United States.

這意味著，歐盟從美國購買的服務價值超過 1080 億歐元，超過了他們賣給美國的服務價值。

If you take services into account, suddenly it seems like they are almost buying from the United States as much as they are selling to the United States.

如果把服務也考慮在內，突然間，他們從美國買的東西和賣給美國的東西幾乎一樣多。

Sure, the EU is not buying as many American cars as Americans are buying BMWs, Mercedes, Volvos, and Volkswagens, but the European Union is also not selling to the United States digital products such as what Meta and Alphabet is selling in the European Union.

當然，歐盟購買的美國汽車沒有美國人購買的寶馬、奔馳、沃爾沃和大眾汽車多，但歐盟也沒有向美國銷售 Meta 和 Alphabet 在歐盟銷售的數字產品。

But let's be fair, even if you count all the numbers, there is still a trading balance of 48 billion dollars.

但公平地說，即使算上所有數字，仍有 480 億美元的交易餘額。

The total trade between the EU and the US is over a trillion dollars.

歐盟和美國之間的貿易總額超過一萬億美元。

And you can fix it by tweaking the system slightly, not by imposing a 50% tariff.

只要稍微調整一下制度就能解決這個問題，而不是徵收 50%的關稅。

And secondly, the US is acting like the big brother in these relationships and is trying to project some soft power.

其次，美國在這些關係中扮演著老大哥的角色，試圖投射一些軟實力。

So if you can't swallow 48 billion dollars worth of trade deficit with your most important trading partner, then what kind of soft power do you have?

那麼，如果你連與最重要的貿易伙伴之間價值 480 億美元的貿易逆差都無法吞下，你還有什麼軟實力可言？

But the question is that, will that crush the stock market in the US?

但問題是，這會壓垮美國股市嗎？

If you take a look at the entire market in the United States, the stock market, top 10 companies represent almost if not more than a quarter of the entire equity market.

縱觀美國整個股票市場，排名前 10 位的公司幾乎佔整個股票市場的四分之一，甚至更多。

So companies from Apple to Amazon to Nvidia, all of them combined represent almost 17.8 trillion dollars.

是以，從蘋果公司到亞馬遜，再到英偉達，所有這些公司加起來幾乎代表了 17.8 萬億美元。

And a huge chunk of their sales comes directly from the European Union.

他們的銷售額中有很大一部分直接來自歐盟。

Apple, 26% of their total sales or over a hundred billion dollars comes directly from EU, Microsoft 29%, Amazon 22%, Alphabet 30%, Meta 24% and so on and so forth.

蘋果公司總銷售額的 26% 或超過千億美元直接來自歐盟，微軟 29%，亞馬遜 22%，Alphabet 30%，Meta 24%，等等。

So if the United States is imposing a 50% tariff on EU, and then EU retaliates by imposing a 50% on everything that comes from the EU, and that includes services as well, what do you think is going to happen to the revenue of these companies that represents almost a quarter of the entire stock market in the US?

是以，如果美國對歐盟徵收 50%的關稅，然後歐盟進行報復，對來自歐盟的所有產品徵收 50%的關稅，其中也包括服務，你認為這些公司的收入會發生什麼變化，而這些公司的收入幾乎佔美國整個股票市場的四分之一？

It will reflect on their balance sheets, on their financial statements, which means that it will reflect on their stock prices and their stock prices are going to go down significantly.

這將反映在它們的資產負債表上，反映在它們的財務報表上，這意味著將反映在它們的股票價格上，而它們的股票價格將大幅下跌。

Tesla might not be hit a lot because Tesla produces their cars in Germany because they have these gigafactories.

特斯拉可能不會受到很大沖擊，因為特斯拉在德國生產汽車，因為他們有這些千兆工廠。

How about Meta that sells, they're literally selling hundreds of billions of dollars worth of ads to multiple businesses.

Meta 的銷售情況如何？他們正在向多家企業銷售價值數千億美元的廣告。

I would say millions of businesses across the entire European Union.

我想說的是，整個歐盟有數百萬家企業。

You impose a 50% tariff, there is a competitor that is going to get into the game and Meta is going to lose the entire EU market forever.

如果徵收 50%的關稅，就會有競爭對手加入競爭，梅塔公司將永遠失去整個歐盟市場。

And if that's the case with the largest companies in the US, what do you think is going to happen with much smaller companies where they have a huge chunk of their revenue coming from the EU.

如果美國最大的公司都是如此，那麼你認為規模更小的公司會怎樣，因為它們的大部分收入都來自歐盟。

But these tariffs are not going to have any kind of immediate impact.

但這些關稅不會產生任何直接影響。

Even if they impose the tariffs on 1st of June, it's not going to instantly have impact on the businesses, but that's not how investors think.

即使他們在 6 月 1 日徵收關稅，也不會立即對企業產生影響，但投資者並不是這麼想的。

If I as an investor believe that Amazon's sales are going to plunge because of these tariffs, then that is going to be reflected, not in the next quarter, but maybe by the end of the year, maybe by next year.

如果作為投資者，我認為亞馬遜的銷售額會因為這些關稅而暴跌，那麼這將會反映出來，不是在下個季度，而是可能在今年年底，也可能在明年。

But I want to avoid those losses, which is why I am going to sell my Amazon stocks right now in order to avoid those losses, which is why there is going to be an oversupply of those stocks in the market, and a weak demand is going to lead those stock prices to plunge.

但我想避免這些損失，這就是為什麼我現在要賣掉我的亞馬遜股票，以避免這些損失，這就是為什麼市場上這些股票會供過於求，而需求疲軟會導致這些股票價格暴跌。

That's how investors believe and that's how investors act usually.

這就是投資者的信念，也是投資者通常的行為方式。

Which is why even if they are going to come up to some kind of agreement a few months from now, the stock market most likely is going to have some kind of an impact.

這就是為什麼即使他們在幾個月後達成某種協議，股市也很可能會產生某種影響。

There might be a correction of 5%, 7%, maybe 10%.

可能會有 5%、7%，甚至 10%的修正。

But on the other side, we have to understand that investors already understand how Trump works.

但另一方面，我們必須明白，投資者已經瞭解特朗普的運作方式。

Yes, Trump can come out and give some huge announcements about some kind of huge tariffs, but on the other side, there might be an agreement next week, take with China.

是的，特朗普可以站出來大肆宣揚某種鉅額關稅，但另一方面，下週可能會與中國達成協議。

There has been tariffs up to 245%, but now tariffs are posed for 90 days and there are exceptions for smartphones, electronics, computers, tablets, and almost everything that comes from China.

以前的關稅高達 245%，但現在關稅的假定期限為 90 天，而且智能手機、電子產品、電腦、平板電腦以及幾乎所有來自中國的產品都有例外。

So investors are very cautious and they expect something like that to happen with the European Union, that's why they might not be rushing.

是以，投資者非常謹慎，他們預計歐盟會發生類似的事情，這就是為什麼他們可能不會急於出手。

Even if there is going to be a correction, that correction might not be huge.

即使會出現修正，修正幅度可能也不會很大。

On the other side, we have to understand that the EU is not going to simply back down because they don't see a problem.

另一方面，我們必須明白，歐盟不會因為沒有發現問題就簡單地退讓。

Yes, there is a 48 billion dollar trade deficit, but we can fix it with some tweaks and not by imposing such draconian tariffs on each other.

是的，現在有 480 億美元的貿易赤字，但我們可以通過一些調整來解決，而不是相互徵收如此嚴厲的關稅。

While the EU has huge tariffs on agricultural products because they are protecting their farmers, they are having almost a 20% tariff on ethanol and a list of other agricultural products that makes it harder for American farmers to enter the European Union's market.

雖然歐盟對農產品徵收鉅額關稅是為了保護本國農民，但他們對乙醇和一系列其他農產品徵收近 20% 的關稅，使美國農民更難進入歐盟市場。

But on the other side, there are zero tariffs on financial services that JP Morgan sells.

但另一方面，摩根大通銷售的金融服務是零關稅。

There are zero tariffs on digital services that Alphabet and Meta sells.

對 Alphabet 和 Meta 出售的數字服務實行零關稅。

是以，他們不認為這有什麼問題。

But Trump is solely focused on physical products, especially agricultural products.

但特朗普只關注實物產品，尤其是農產品。

But then the EU can hit the United States in the back with a 50% tariff on all the services that are being sold.

但這樣一來，歐盟就可以對美國出售的所有服務徵收 50%的關稅。

And frankly speaking, services worth a lot more than agricultural products.

坦率地說，服務的價值遠遠高於農產品。

So it might be far better for the United States to simply lift all of these tariffs and subsidize farmers in the US, and that could be a far better option.

是以，對美國來說，乾脆取消所有這些關稅並補貼美國農民，可能是更好的選擇。

While I do believe that there is going to be a deal reached between the two countries, it's going to take some time because the EU is not going to back down.

雖然我相信兩國之間會達成協議，但這需要一些時間，因為歐盟不會退讓。

And frankly speaking, based from what Trump is talking about the EU, I think he literally believes that the EU owes the United States a lot and they have been taking advantage of the United States.

坦率地說，從特朗普談論歐盟的內容來看，我認為他確實認為歐盟欠美國很多，他們一直在佔美國的便宜。

But that was the political will of the United States and not the European Union because they wanted the EU to be under the influence of the United States.

但這是美國的政治意願，而不是歐盟的政治意願，因為他們希望歐盟受到美國的影響。

So no matter how bad the crash is going to get, I am not going to sell my stocks because I believe that this is going to be a temporary correction.

是以，無論暴跌會變得多麼嚴重，我都不會拋售我的股票，因為我相信這只是暫時的修正。

In fact, I believe that this might be literally one of the greatest times to buy because it's literally pump and dump.

事實上，我認為現在可能是最適合購買的時機之一，因為這簡直就是抽水和拋售。

You have to understand that the EU has a lot of leverage over the United States.

你必須明白，歐盟對美國有很大的影響力。

Right now they are buying a lot of energy from the United States.

現在，他們正從美國購買大量能源。

So by imposing a 50% on energy products on the United States, they can literally turn around and say, Russia, we missed your gas and oil, please bring all of your gas and oil to the European Union and they will stop buying the American oil and gas, which is a huge problem.

是以，如果對美國的能源產品徵收 50%的關稅，他們就可以反過來說，俄羅斯，我們想念你們的天然氣和石油，請把你們的天然氣和石油都運到歐盟來，他們就不會再購買美國的石油和天然氣了，這是一個巨大的問題。

It will cost the United States much more than they could potentially make in agricultural products selling to the EU.

美國為此付出的代價將遠遠超過他們向歐盟出售農產品可能賺取的利潤。

Second thing, they can clear the path for Chinese tech giants to enter the European market and that could have a long-term influence because once they enter the European market, they will have a serious competition with Facebook, they will have a serious competition to Alphabet and Amazon, and that's not something that you can wipe out easily.

第二件事是，他們可以為中國科技巨頭進入歐洲市場掃清道路，這可能會產生長期影響，因為一旦他們進入歐洲市場，他們將與 Facebook 展開激烈競爭，與 Alphabet 和亞馬遜展開激烈競爭，而這不是你能輕易消滅的。

Right now they have an upper hand, but if they clear the path for Chinese tech giants, it's going to be a disaster for those companies, and that's something I believe is not going to happen.

現在他們佔了上風，但如果他們為中國科技巨頭掃清了道路，對這些公司來說將是一場災難，我相信這不會發生。

他們會一直持有這張牌，直到最後。

It seems like this is literally like a pump and dump that happens on the level of the government that the entire White House is literally pumping and down the entire market and that is what that is an opportunity for you, that is an opportunity for me to buy some of these stocks at a bargaining price and then profit enormously.

看來，這簡直就是政府層面上的抽水和傾銷，整個白宮都在抽水，整個市場都在下跌，這對你來說是個機會，對我來說是個機會，以討價還價的價格買入其中一些股票，然後大賺一筆。

Now if you have been part of our academy, you would have seen that and you would have prepared yourself for this and you would have taken advantage.

如果你是我們學院的一員，你就會看到這一點，你就會為此做好準備，你就會利用這一點。

This is not the first time that you could take advantage, literally the last 3 to 4 months have been some of the best periods that you could have invested and made a lot of money.

這已經不是第一次了，在過去的 3 到 4 個月裡，是您可以投資並賺大錢的最佳時期。

If you have been part of our academy, you would have seen that and you would have already made a bunch of money.

如果你是我們學院的一員，你就會看到，你已經賺了一大筆錢。

For those who are interested to join our academy, there is a link in the description of this video and a comment that is going to be pinned.

如果您有興趣加入我們的學院，這段視頻的描述中有一個鏈接，您也可以在評論中加入我們的學院。

You can check the link and find out more.

您可以查看鏈接，瞭解更多資訊。