Name: 沃倫-巴菲特剛剛發出了一個強有力的資訊 (Warren Buffett Just Sent a Powerful Message)
Uploaded: 2025-07-27T18:27:38.000Z
Duration: 15 min 33 s

基礎被動語態

This is one of the worst crises the United States has ever faced in its 250-year-old  And when Warren Buffett was asked about it, he made it clear that it can turn into a great disaster.

當沃倫-巴菲特（Warren Buffett）被問及此事時，他明確表示，這可能會變成一場巨大的災難。

情態副詞

If you have a central bank that is bowing to the will of Congress, either directly or indirectly through some of the various mechanisms, it would be a disaster.

如果中央銀行直接或間接地通過各種機制向國會的意志低頭，那將是一場災難。

In fact, according to Warren Buffett, this was one of the main reasons behind the Great Recession of 2008.

事實上，沃倫-巴菲特認為，這是 2008 年經濟大衰退的主要原因之一。

Over the last few months since Donald Trump has taken office, he has continuously criticized the chairman of the Fed.

唐納德-特朗普上任幾個月來，不斷責備美聯儲主席。

He thrown words, he called him names, and he wants the Fed to lower down the interest rates.

他擲地有聲，他罵他，他希望美聯儲降低利率。

And he does not understand why Europe has cut rates 10 times already while the United States hasn't cut the rates a single time.

他不明白為什麼歐洲已經降息 10 次，而美國卻一次都沒有降息。

Back at the end of the last year, experts were expecting the Fed to lower down interest rates.

早在去年年底，專家們就預計美聯儲會降低利率。

However, nothing like that has happened, and if the Fed will lower down interest rates under the pressure of the White House, it can turn into a catastrophe or a disaster, at least according to Warren Buffett.

然而，這樣的事情並沒有發生過，如果美聯儲在白宮的壓力下降低利率，就會變成一場災難，至少巴菲特是這麼認為的。

So let's try to answer a couple of questions.

所以，讓我們試著回答幾個問題。

Why Warren Buffett is so worried about the Fed?

Why does he believe that this could break the entire US economy?

為什麼他認為這會破壞整個美國經濟？

And why Donald Trump is so obsessed about the chairman of the Fed?

唐納德-特朗普為何對美聯儲主席如此著迷？

If you are ready, give this video a thumbs up and let's get right into it.

如果您準備好了，請為這段視頻豎起大拇指，讓我們開始吧。

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are the two corporations that are backed by the government but supposed to be independent were created to make it much easier for you to get a mortgage. 30-year mortgages are very risky, especially for banks that give them for the next 30 years.

房利美（Fannie Mae）和房地美（Freddie Mac）是兩家由政府支持但應該是獨立的公司，它們的成立是為了讓您更容易獲得抵押貸款。30 年期抵押貸款風險很大，尤其是對那些提供未來 30 年抵押貸款的銀行而言。

What's going to happen in 30 years from now?

So the bank is taking a very huge risk, which is why it doesn't want to take a risk for the next 30 years.

是以，銀行正在冒著非常巨大的風險，這也是為什麼它不想在未來 30 年冒風險的原因。

However, this is possible because the bank can take that mortgage and sell it to these corporations since they are backed by the government, which is why banks such as JP Morgan, Chase, or even much smaller banks than them often provide a 30-year mortgage, which is the most popular type of mortgage in the US.

然而，這是有可能的，因為銀行可以將抵押貸款出售給這些公司，因為它們是由政府支持的，這就是為什麼摩根大通、大通等銀行，甚至比它們小得多的銀行經常提供 30 年期抵押貸款的原因，這也是美國最流行的抵押貸款類型。

These two corporations will take these mortgages, bundle them together under mortgage-backed securities and will sell them to investors.

這兩家公司將把這些抵押貸款捆綁在一起，作為抵押貸款支持證券出售給投資者。

Investors will gladly buy these securities because they have an assumption or there is an assumption that house prices will always go up and government is backing these two corporations, which makes these securities essentially risk-free.

投資者很樂意購買這些證券，因為他們有一個假設，或者說有一個假設，即房價會一直上漲，而且政府為這兩家公司提供支持，這使得這些證券基本上沒有風險。

This is why 30-year mortgages exist in the US.

這就是美國存在 30 年期抵押貸款的原因。

However, something fundamentally changed in the early 2000s when the government decided to encourage these corporations to start loaning or buying more riskier assets or riskier mortgages.

然而，2000 年代初，當政府決定鼓勵這些公司開始貸款或購買風險更高的資產或抵押貸款時，情況發生了根本性的變化。

Before providing you with a mortgage, the bank looks at your background, whether you are financially responsible, do you have a stable job, do you have any kind of savings, and the less riskier you are, the lower will be your mortgage rate.

在為您提供抵押貸款之前，銀行會考察您的背景，看您是否有經濟責任感，是否有穩定的工作，是否有任何形式的儲蓄，您的風險越小，您的抵押貸款利率就越低。

On the other side, if you don't have a stable job, if you don't have any kind of savings, and by looking at your credit history, it seems like you are not financially responsible, the banks usually won't give you a mortgage.

另一方面，如果你沒有穩定的工作，沒有任何積蓄，而且從你的信用記錄來看，你似乎在經濟上不負責任，銀行通常不會給你提供抵押貸款。

However, since the government encouraged these two corporations to make sure that every American has a house, they signaled to the banks that they are ready to buy even riskier mortgages, which is why these banks started providing very risky mortgages to people who cannot possibly afford them, because they know that they can take them, turn around and sell them to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

然而，既然政府鼓勵這兩家公司確保每個美國人都有房子，它們就向銀行發出信號，準備購買風險更大的抵押貸款，這就是為什麼這些銀行開始向那些不可能負擔得起的人提供風險極大的抵押貸款，因為它們知道，它們可以接受這些貸款，然後轉手賣給房利美和房地美。

These two corporations will take very good mortgages and very risky mortgages, mix them together and bundle them under one security and sell them to corporations.

這兩家公司會把很好的抵押貸款和風險很高的抵押貸款混在一起，捆綁在一個證券下，然後賣給公司。

And they did it primarily because the government encouraged them to do so.

他們這樣做主要是因為政府鼓勵他們這樣做。

And this was primarily the main reason why the 2008 great recession happened.

而這正是 2008 年大衰退發生的主要原因。

Because once we realized that we have given out too many risky loans, too many risky mortgages, and people began to default on them, investors took a very deep look and realized that the entire housing market is totally inflated and if it wasn't for the government's action, it wouldn't be this bad and the entire system has collapsed.

因為一旦我們意識到，我們發放了太多的高風險貸款、太多的高風險抵押貸款，而人們開始違約，投資者就會非常深刻地審視並意識到，整個房地產市場完全被誇大了，如果不是政府的行動，情況不會這麼糟糕，整個系統已經崩潰了。

But if these two corporations were fully independent and weren't encouraged by the government to buy those risky loans, we would not have the 2008 financial crisis.

但是，如果這兩家公司是完全獨立的，沒有政府鼓勵它們購買這些高風險貸款，我們就不會有 2008 年的金融危機。

And that takes us to the current problem that we have right now.

The Fed Reserve is an independent entity even though that it's part of the government.

美聯儲是一個獨立的實體，儘管它是政府的一部分。

The chairman of the Fed is appointed by the president of the United States.

However, they must be approved by the senate.

不過，它們必須得到參議院的準許。

So the entire government works together to appoint the head of the Fed who is going to govern the Fed.

是以，整個政府共同任命美聯儲主席，由他來管理美聯儲。

The chairman of the Fed and the people who run the Fed have full authority to do what they want.

美聯儲主席和掌管美聯儲的人完全有權為所欲為。

It doesn't matter what the president wants.

It doesn't matter what the congress wants.

The independence of the Fed is what makes the Fed Reserve such a unique central bank.

美聯儲的獨立性使其成為獨一無二的中央銀行。

In fact, any central bank should be entirely independent from the will of the president.

事實上，任何中央銀行都應完全獨立於總統的意志。

These two people are accountable to the entire world. 57% of global reserve currencies are held in US dollars, or around almost 13 trillion dollars.

這兩個人要對全世界負責。全球儲備貨幣的 57% 是美元，約合 13 萬億美元。

And if those central banks across the globe will no longer believe in the independence of the Fed, they will start getting rid of their dollars because they don't know whether the dollar will hold its value.

如果全球央行不再相信美聯儲的獨立性，他們就會開始拋售美元，因為他們不知道美元能否保值。

Secondly, the US bond market worth 51 trillion dollars.

其次，美國債券市場價值 51 萬億美元。

And 37 trillion dollars of that belongs to the US government.

其中 37 萬億美元屬於美國政府。

Out of that loan, 25% is being owned by foreign entities or foreign countries such as China that holds 800 billion dollars of US debt, Japan holds around 1.2 trillion dollars of US debt, and 55% of that debt is being held by the public.

在這些貸款中，25%為外國實體或外國所擁有，如中國持有 8000 億美元的美債，日本持有約 1.2 萬億美元的美債，55%的債務由公眾持有。

So Fed's main objective is price stability or keeping the value of the dollar.

是以，美聯儲的主要目標是穩定物價或保持美元幣值。

Even though there is always some kind of inflation and dollar keeps devaluing anyways every single year, but if that devaluation is 2% annually, then it's understandable.

儘管每年都會有通貨膨脹，美元也會不斷貶值，但如果每年貶值 2%，那也是可以理解的。

But because the Fed is independent, everybody across the globe believes in the independence of the Fed and the value of the dollar and they keep getting the dollars as a reserve currency and using the dollar as the global currency for trade and also buying the US government debt.

但是，由於美聯儲是獨立的，全球每個人都相信美聯儲的獨立性和美元的價值，他們不斷獲得美元作為儲備貨幣，使用美元作為全球貿易貨幣，還購買美國國債。

But why Trump wants lower interest rates?

但為什麼特朗普希望降低利率呢？

First of all, lower interest rates is going to create faster GDP growth.

首先，降低利率會加快國內生產總值的增長。

More money will be flowing into the economy, getting a mortgage will be much easier, borrowing money will be much easier, and that will inflate the economy.

更多的資金將流入經濟，獲得抵押貸款將更加容易，借錢也將更加容易，這將使經濟膨脹。

And if you are the president, that is the only thing that you want.

如果你是總統，這就是你唯一想要的。

A faster economic growth is what every president strives to achieve.

更快的經濟增長是每位總統都在努力實現的目標。

Secondly, the government is running a deficit, a 2 trillion dollar deficit.

其次，政府的財政赤字高達 2 萬億美元。

And one way to fix that deficit isn't to cut costs, which you can certainly always do, but instead of cutting costs, how about we start making more money.

解決赤字問題的一個辦法不是削減成本，當然你可以一直這樣做，但與其削減成本，不如我們開始賺更多的錢。

And if we lower down interest rates, the economy grows faster and the income is going to grow and we will be able to balance the budget over time.

如果我們降低利率，經濟增長就會加快，收入就會增加，我們就能長期平衡預算。

Thirdly, every single percentage costs the government hundreds of billions of dollars.

第三，每一個百分比都會使政府損失數千億美元。

Now think about it this way, the government has like 37 trillion dollars of debt which is a lot of money and it pays interest on that.

現在想想，政府有 37 萬億美元的債務，這是一筆不小的數目，而且還要為此支付利息。

Now 1% on 37 trillion dollars is 370 billion dollars.

現在，37 萬億美元的 1%是 3 700 億美元。

This year and next year together, the government will have to refinance 20 trillion dollars of debt.

今明兩年，政府將需要為 20 萬億美元的債務進行再融資。

And it will refinance it at the current interest rates.

它將以當前的利率進行再融資。

If we lower down interest rates, then less money will be allocated and paid into interest payments and the government will have more money for border security, for infrastructure projects or any other projects that Donald Trump has in front of himself, including expanding the military and building a much larger military than the US has right now.

如果我們降低利率，那麼分配和支付給利息的資金就會減少，政府就會有更多的資金用於邊境安全、基礎設施項目或唐納德-特朗普（Donald Trump）面前的任何其他項目，包括擴軍和建立一支比美國現在規模大得多的軍隊。

I don't even know how you can have a much larger military, even though this is literally the world's largest military that has ever existed in history, but that's a story for another time.

我甚至不知道你怎麼能擁有一支規模更大的軍隊，儘管這確實是歷史上存在過的世界上規模最大的軍隊，但這是另一個故事了。

Donald Trump is also right that other central banks have lowered down their interest rates.

唐納德-特朗普也說對了，其他央行已經降低了利率。

The UK has lowered down interest rates even this year.

The European central banks have been even more aggressive than that and had multiple cuts already, including this year as well.

歐洲央行甚至比這更積極，已經多次減息，包括今年。

They went from as high as 4.5% last year to as low as a little 2%.

它們從去年的高達 4.5% 降到了最低的 2%。

That is probably what Donald Trump wants in the US.

這也許正是唐納德-特朗普在美國想要的。

At 2% interest rate, the US will probably have half of the interest payments that it's having right now.

如果利率為 2%，美國的利息支出可能只有現在的一半。

Because according to the recent reports, with the current rates that we have with the Fed, the interest payments are going to be around 1.1 trillion dollars by the end of the year.

因為根據最近的報道，按照美聯儲目前的利率，到今年年底，利息支出將達到 1.1 萬億美元左右。

But if we cut the rates to a little over 2%, then interest payments will instantly go to around 500 to 600 billion dollars, which will allow the government to be much more flexible with its budget.

但是，如果我們把利率降到 2%多一點，那麼利息支出將立即減少到 5000 億至 6000 億美元左右，這將使政府的預算更加靈活。

So why did they lower the interest rates in the first place?

那麼，他們當初為什麼要降低利率呢？

You see, if you look at this country's economies, you suddenly realize something.

你看，如果你看看這個國家的經濟，你會突然意識到一些事情。

Unemployment in the UK has been surging since 2022, and it's over 5% right now.

自 2022 年以來，英國的失業率一直在飆升，目前已超過 5%。

And the British economy is suffering tremendously.

而英國的經濟正在遭受巨大損失。

There are so many problems with the British economy.

They barely signed a humiliating trade deal with the United States.

他們勉強與美國簽署了一份羞辱性的貿易協議。

They don't know how to actually get the economy out of the crisis.

他們不知道如何真正讓經濟走出危機。

And it's very clear that probably by next year maximum, the UK will be in a recession.

很顯然，到明年最大限度，英國將陷入經濟衰退。

So if we want to avoid that recession, then we have to start lowering down interest rates now.

是以，如果我們想避免經濟衰退，就必須從現在開始降低利率。

And they haven't even lowered them as much as the European Central Bank, because the UK is still struggling with the inflation, which is even higher than the US inflation.

他們甚至沒有像歐洲中央銀行那樣下調利率，因為英國仍在與通脹作鬥爭，而英國的通脹率甚至高於美國。

The same thing applies with the European countries.

Take a look at Germany, which is the largest economy in the European Union.

Their unemployment rate has grown from around 5% to as high as 6.3%.

他們的失業率從 5%左右上升到 6.3%。

Secondly, Europe is facing a lot of challenges in front of them.

First of all, they no longer buy cheap Russian guys, and they have exchanged it for or replaced it with expensive American gas that is being shipped from the United States to the European Union, including Germany, that created a lot of inflation.

首先，他們不再購買廉價的俄羅斯天然氣，而是換成了昂貴的美國天然氣，這些天然氣從美國運往歐盟，包括德國，造成了大量通貨膨脹。

That forced a lot of factories to close down, which caused unemployment to spike.

這迫使許多工廠倒閉，導致失業率飆升。

They're facing a security problem with their eastern borders.

他們面臨著東部邊境的安全問題。

They're facing so many economic challenges that unemployment keeps rising.

他們面臨諸多經濟挑戰，失業率不斷攀升。

And if they don't lower down interest rates, then the entire European Union is going to face a very serious recession in the foreseeable future.

如果他們不降低利率，那麼在可預見的未來，整個歐盟都將面臨非常嚴重的經濟衰退。

In fact, I believe that a recession is imminent in the next two years, and it will be much worse than the US recession.

事實上，我認為未來兩年經濟衰退迫在眉睫，而且會比美國經濟衰退嚴重得多。

In fact, the US economy has actually been growing tremendously over the last five years.

事實上，在過去五年中，美國經濟一直在大幅增長。

However, if you look at the European economies, they have been suffering since then.

然而，如果你看看歐洲的經濟，它們從那時起就一直在受苦。

Another thing to consider is that European economies actually have much less debt than the United States.

另一個需要考慮的問題是，歐洲經濟體的債務實際上比美國少得多。