Name: 輕鬆賺錢即將到來......切勿犯這 5 個錯誤 (Easy Money Coming SOON… Do Not Make These 5 Mistakes)
Uploaded: 2025-07-25T18:51:34.000Z
Duration: 11 min 7 s

Donald Trump has reshaped the entire structure of the global economy by moving the focus of the United States from free trade into isolation policies.

唐納德-特朗普將美國的重心從自由貿易轉向孤立政策，從而重塑了全球經濟的整個結構。

程度副詞

This is something that the US did not experience in almost around a hundred years.

這是美國近百年來從未經歷過的。

基礎被動語態

In fact, Donald Trump was inspired by William McKinley.

事實上，唐納德-特朗普受到了威廉-麥金利的啟發。

William McKinley built his entire political brand on raising the tariffs to protect American jobs, wages, and industries, so that foreigners cannot come to the United States and take out the industries from US manufacturers, so that we can bring the jobs, raise the wages, and make America great again.

威廉-麥金利將自己的整個政治品牌建立在提高關稅上，以保護美國人的就業、工資和產業，這樣外國人就無法來到美國，從美國製造商手中奪走產業，這樣我們就能帶來就業，提高工資，讓美國再次偉大。

I mean, no offense, Donald Trump has himself multiple times mentioned that his favorite word on the vocabulary is tariffs, and he was inspired by William McKinley, and he does not understand why other presidents did not follow this strategy.

我的意思是，無意冒犯，唐納德-特朗普本人曾多次提到，他最喜歡的詞彙是關稅，他受到了威廉-麥金利的啟發，他不明白為什麼其他總統沒有遵循這一策略。

Trump's tariffs shook the entire global economy, because the entire focus of the United States since 1940s was that we have to reduce the tariffs as much as we can, and we also have to convince other countries so that they could also reduce their tariffs and free trade will dominate the entire world.

特朗普的關稅動搖了整個全球經濟，因為自 20 世紀 40 年代以來，美國的整個焦點就是我們必須儘可能降低關稅，我們還必須說服其他國家，讓他們也能降低關稅，自由貿易將主宰整個世界。

無論如何，關稅從來都不是有效的。

There were times where tariffs were the main source of government's revenue back in the And if you think that we can get rid of the income tax and replace it with tariffs, then you are delusional.

如果你認為我們可以取消所得稅，用關稅取而代之，那你就是痴心妄想。

America imports around 3.2 trillion dollars worth of goods alone, if we impose on average around 20% tariffs on them, then the government can earn around 650 billion dollars.

僅美國進口的商品價值就約為 3.2 萬億美元，如果我們平均對這些商品徵收約 20% 的關稅，那麼政府就可以賺取約 6500 億美元。

That sounds like a huge number in the beginning, but it will quickly shrink over time and dry up the government's budget.

這個數字在開始時聽起來很大，但隨著時間的推移會迅速縮小，並會耗盡政府的預算。

Because as exporting to the United States will become less profitable because there is a 20% tariff, that 3.2 trillion dollars will quickly go to 2 trillion dollars, 1.5 trillion dollars, eventually 1 trillion dollars, and so on and so forth.

因為向美國出口的利潤會因為 20% 的關稅而降低，3.2 萬億美元會很快變成 2 萬億美元、1.5 萬億美元，最終變成 1 萬億美元，如此循環往復。

So the government's revenue is going to dry up.

On the other side, when you have 160 million taxpayers who consistently pay income tax and payroll tax, that's much more sustainable for the US budget.

另一方面，如果有 1.6 億納稅人持續繳納所得稅和工資稅，美國預算的可持續性就會大大提高。

On top of that, there is nothing that can be fully produced domestically in the United States.

除此之外，美國國內也沒有什麼可以完全生產的產品。

Screens are often produced in South Korea, rare earth minerals are being imported from China, and a lot of chips are being manufactured in Taiwan.

篩網通常在韓國生產，稀土礦石從中國進口，大量芯片在臺灣製造。

So good luck producing anything fully domestically in the United States.

所以，祝美國國內能生產出完全國產的產品。

And that's why the entire market crashed so much.

這也是整個市場崩潰嚴重的原因。

But the real question is that, why is the market growing again?

但真正的問題是，為什麼市場會再次增長？

China has confirmed Trump's announcement that they have came with a trade agreement with China.

中國已證實特朗普宣佈他們已與中國達成貿易協定。

Even though that we still don't know the details of this agreement, at least as of the time of this recording, by looking at the history of Trump's deals, we can assume that it's not going to be very different.

儘管我們還不知道這份協議的細節，至少在錄音時還不知道，但從特朗普的交易歷史來看，我們可以推測它不會有太大的不同。

You see, this is not the first trade war that Donald Trump has started against China.

要知道，這已經不是唐納德-特朗普對中國挑起的第一場貿易戰了。

The first one was back in 2017 or 2018, and it lasted for much longer.

第一次是在 2017 年或 2018 年，持續的時間更長。

The accusations against China were pretty similar, that China does not buy enough from the United States, and they are not protecting US intellectual property.

對中國的指責大同小異，都說中國沒有從美國購買足夠的產品，也沒有保護美國的知識產權。

China agreed to buy 200 billion dollars more of US goods in over 2 years, and also strengthen intellectual property to protect American companies and their rights in China, and allow American companies to deeply integrate into China, especially the financial services.

中國同意在兩年內多購買 2000 億美元的美國商品，同時加強知識產權保護，保護美國公司及其在中國的權利，允許美國公司深度融入中國，尤其是金融服務。

The problem with the first trade agreement was that, it was not like a formal agreement, it was simply commitment from China.

第一份貿易協定的問題在於，它不像是一份正式協定，而僅僅是中國的承諾。

Nothing exactly was signed, so China wasn't obligated to do that, unless they would actually simply honor their word.

雙方並沒有簽署任何確切的協議，是以中國沒有義務這樣做，除非他們真的會信守諾言。

Secondly, China was already the largest trading partner of the United States, and as Chinese economy began to grow, they kept buying more from the United States.

其次，中國已經是美國最大的貿易伙伴，隨著中國經濟開始增長，他們不斷從美國購買更多的商品。

At the end of the day, they did not fill this commitment, and secondly, yes, they actually bought slightly more from the United States.

最後，他們沒有履行這一承諾，其次，是的，他們實際上從美國購買了略多的東西。

But that was already the trend of China buying from the United States, that every single year they would slightly buy a bit more from the US than they did from previous years.

但這已經是中國從美國購買商品的趨勢，即每一年他們從美國購買的商品都會比前幾年多一點。

So even if Trump did not start this trade war against China, even if he did not impose those high tariffs, China would have done that anyways.

是以，即使特朗普沒有挑起這場針對中國的貿易戰，即使他沒有徵收那些高額關稅，中國無論如何也會這麼做。

Secondly, many analysts believe that the Fed is about to cut the interest rates, even though that it seems not like that entirely.

其次，許多分析師認為美聯儲即將降息，儘管看起來並不完全如此。

You see, the Fed has a very long history of sending mixed signals to the market, because the Fed understands its power, it knows that the market is going to react accordingly, so it wants to send those mixed signals.

你看，美聯儲向市場發出混合信號的歷史由來已久，因為美聯儲瞭解自己的力量，知道市場會做出相應的反應，所以它希望發出這些混合信號。

On one side, people think that the Fed will cut the rates, on the other side, people are not, do not understand what the Fed is planning to do.

一方面，人們認為美聯儲會降息，另一方面，人們並不瞭解、不明白美聯儲打算做什麼。

And that confusion in the market leads to unexpected decisions by the Fed.

市場的混亂導致美聯儲做出意想不到的決定。

Back in 2020, when everybody thought that inflation got out of hand, the Fed did not hike the interest rates.

早在 2020 年，當所有人都認為通脹已經失控時，美聯儲並沒有加息。

事實上，美聯儲一直等到了 2021 年。

And throughout the entire 2021, as everybody was thinking that inflation is getting out of hand, when the Fed will hike the rates, it only happened in the first half of 2022.

而在整個 2021 年，當所有人都認為通脹已經失控，美聯儲將在何時加息時，加息卻只發生在 2022 年上半年。

The same thing happened back in 2024, nobody thought that in 2024 that the Fed will lower interest rates.

同樣的事情也發生在 2024 年，沒有人認為美聯儲會在 2024 年降息。

And then suddenly, at the end of 2024, on 18th of December, the Fed lowered the rates by 25 basis.

然後在 2024 年底，即 12 月 18 日，美聯儲突然將利率下調了 25 個基點。

And right now, as if everybody expects that the Fed will keep the rates high in order to tackle inflation and wait for more clarity from the White House policies, maybe suddenly, it might be in July, it might be in September or October.

而現在，似乎每個人都期望美聯儲將保持高利率以應對通脹，並等待白宮政策的進一步明朗化，也許會突然發生，也許會在 7 月，也許會在 9 月或 10 月。

And because we know the history of the Fed, the market overall has this positive reaction that cut rates are coming for a fact and that will create a lot of easy money for the market, which has the potential to boost the stock market, and investors are simply preparing themselves to capitalize on this opportunity.

由於我們瞭解美聯儲的歷史，市場整體上有一種積極的反應，認為降息即將到來是事實，這將為市場創造大量寬鬆的資金，從而有可能提振股市，而投資者只是在為抓住這個機會做準備。

But here is the biggest mistake that most people usually make.

但大多數人通常會犯一個最大的錯誤。

When prices begin to rise, that will attract a lot of people, because it creates this kind of an environment that people start believing that the market will continue to grow.

當價格開始上漲時，就會吸引很多人，因為這會創造一種環境，讓人們開始相信市場會繼續增長。

It's very difficult to sit and watch how everybody is making money while you are not in the market, so you jump in and you want to start investing as well.

當你不在市場中時，你很難坐視所有人都在賺錢，所以你也想參與進來，開始投資。

Now, media coverage does its role as well, because it creates this sentiment in the market that everything will continue to grow, and as more people begin to buy more stocks in the stock market, it will create this self-fulfilling prophecy of keeping the markets to grow.

現在，媒體報道也發揮了它的作用，因為它在市場上製造了這樣一種情緒，即一切都將繼續增長，隨著越來越多的人開始在股市上購買更多的股票，它將創造這種自我實現的預言，使市場繼續增長。

But there are professional investors in the market, they know how things work.

但是，市場上有專業的投資者，他們知道如何運作。

The moment it hits the top, it is going to crash, because those investors who know how and it's time to sell their stocks, and the market crashes.

一旦觸頂，市場就會崩潰，因為那些投資者知道如何賣出他們的股票，市場就會崩潰。

Now, the exact opposite effect will happen here again.

現在，完全相反的效果又將在這裡發生。

People will start cutting their losses, they will instantly sell their stocks.

人們會開始減少損失，立即拋售股票。

That will be followed by the negative media coverage that will keep threatening people that the stock market could crash further.

隨之而來的是媒體的負面報道，不斷威脅人們股市可能會進一步崩盤。

And to minimize your losses and be on the safe side, you start selling your stocks.

為了儘量減少損失，也為了安全起見，你開始拋售股票。

Selling stocks will create the self-fulfilling prophecy of crashing the market further.

拋售股票會造成自我實現的預言，使市場進一步崩潰。

The best example I can give you is bitcoin.

我能舉出的最好例子就是比特幣。

Every time everyone is excited about bitcoin, the bitcoin price starts growing dramatically, and then when it grows by 300%, 500%, then the people who bought bitcoin initially, or the people who know how the market works, they start massively selling.

每當大家對比特幣感到興奮時，比特幣的價格就會開始大幅上漲，然後當價格上漲 300%、500% 時，最初購買比特幣的人，或者那些瞭解市場運作的人，就會開始大量拋售。

Then everybody else who is not very good at the stock market or at investing in anything, they will start selling as well and the market crashes.

然後，其他不擅長股市或任何投資的人也會開始拋售，市場就會崩潰。

I am not saying that you should avoid the stock market and you should not start investing now, but these are some of the best lessons that I have learned over the 10 years that I have been in the stock market and carefully watching some of the best investors out there.

我並不是說你應該回避股市，也不是說你現在就不應該開始投資，但這些是我在股市中10年來所獲得的一些最好的經驗，也是我仔細觀察一些最優秀的投資者所獲得的經驗。

Number one, fortunes are made when the market crashes.

第一，當市場崩潰時，財富就會產生。

Fortunes are never made when the stock market is growing.

在股市增長時，永遠不會有財富。

Yes, when the market is growing and you hear the news that some people made a fortune.

是的，當市場增長時，你會聽到有人發財的消息。

But they made it because they took action when the market crashed, not when the market is growing.

但他們之所以成功，是因為他們在市場崩潰時採取行動，而不是在市場增長時。

The market is growing is simply a result of what they did when the market is crushed.

市場的增長只不過是他們在市場崩潰時所做的事情的結果。

Yes, you can still invest and you can still make some money if you are smart about it, but you are not going to make a fortune out of it.

是的，你仍然可以投資，如果你聰明的話，你仍然可以賺到一些錢，但你不會是以而發大財。

Secondly, prepare yourself for the next opportunity.

其次，為下一次機會做好準備。

And if you look at the history of the market, it consistently fluctuates.

如果你看看市場的歷史，它一直在波動。

There are huge market crashes and then there are like small market crashes.

有巨大的市場崩潰，也有類似小規模的市場崩潰。

所以，無論如何，市場都會崩潰。

Over time, over a long period of time, the trajectory is very clear that the market keeps growing.

隨著時間的推移，在很長一段時間內，市場持續增長的軌跡非常明顯。

So the best time to start buying is when the market crashes and not right now when the market is growing.

是以，開始購買的最佳時機是市場崩潰的時候，而不是現在市場增長的時候。

But here is one thing that you have to keep in mind.

And this is the third thing that you have to keep in mind.

If you are dollar cost averaging, then stick to your own strategy.

如果是平均成本法，那就堅持自己的策略。

Dollar cost averaging is consistently buying the exact same stocks that you plan to do over a long period of time.

平均美元成本法是指在很長一段時間內持續購買你計劃購買的完全相同的股票。

Let's say every single month you drop a thousand dollars or 500 bucks on the S&P 500.

比方說，你每個月在標準普爾 500 指數上投入一千美元或五百美元。

Yes, you're not going to buy the stock when it's at its lowest point every single time.

是的，你不會每次都在股票最低點時買入。

And you're not going to buy the stocks or you will buy the stocks sometimes when it's at its peak.

你不會買股票，或者有時你會在高峰期買股票。

但總的來說，你會得到平均分。

And historically, we know that you can make anything between 8 to 10% anyways.

而從歷史上看，我們知道，無論如何，你都能賺到 8%到 10%。

And timing the market is impossible anyways.

無論如何，把握市場時機是不可能的。

However, it doesn't mean that you should not buy stocks when the market crashed and the market is presenting you really great stocks at a huge discount.

但是，這並不意味著在市場崩潰時你就不應該購買股票，市場會以巨大的折扣向你展示真正的好股票。

So as we're entering this period where the market keeps growing due to the reasons that I have explained in this video, I want you to be very careful.

是以，當我們進入這個由於我在視頻中解釋的原因而導致市場持續增長的時期時，我希望你們要非常小心。

And if you haven't made your first hundred thousand dollars in the stock market yet, then make sure to check the first link in the description of this video.

如果你還沒有在股市中賺到第一筆十萬美元，那麼一定要查看本視頻描述中的第一個鏈接。

That's it for today, thanks guys for watching and I will see you in the next one.

今天就到這裡，感謝各位的收看，我們下期再見。