Name: 雷-達里奧準備迎接 1929 年那樣的大崩盤 (Ray Dalio is Preparing For A Crash Like 1929)
Uploaded: 2025-07-23T18:49:35.000Z
Duration: 18 min 35 s

形容詞最高級

The big beautiful bill just passed the senate and Ray Dalio, one of the most legendary investors out there, issued a final warning.

美麗的大法案剛剛在參議院獲得通過，最富傳奇色彩的投資者之一雷-達里奧（Ray Dalio）發出了最後的警告。

to 不定詞

Because it is going to have a very serious implication on the national debt and at the end of the day, it's the average American who is going to pay the national debt, who is going to pay the price for that.

因為這將對國債產生非常嚴重的影響，而最終，將為國債買單的是普通美國人，將為此付出代價的是普通美國人。

過去簡單式

In fact, even prior to the big beautiful bill, the United States was on an unsustainable debt level.

事實上，即使在美麗的大法案之前，美國的債務水準也是不可持續的。

It printed trillions of dollars back during the great recession, during the pandemic and every crisis since then.

在大衰退期間、大流行病期間以及此後的每一次危機中，它都印製了數萬億美元。

And now supposed to be the period where the United States is going to pay off its debt.

現在應該是美國償還債務的時期。

But it seems like with the big beautiful bill, that's not happening.

但是，有了這個漂亮的大法案，似乎就不會出現這種情況了。

And according to the chairman of the Fed himself, the United States will never pay off its debt.

美聯儲主席本人也認為，美國將永遠無法償還債務。

So here in this video, let's try to figure out how the big beautiful bill supposed to solve the national debt problem and how it's going to impact you.

是以，在這段視頻中，讓我們試著瞭解一下這個美麗的大法案應該如何解決國債問題，以及它將對你產生怎樣的影響。

The US is already on a trajectory of overspending.

In fact, in the next 20 to 50 years, it seems like revenues will never catch up with the expenses of the US government, which means that the national debt is only going to worsen.

事實上，在未來 20 到 50 年內，美國政府的收入似乎永遠趕不上支出，這意味著國債只會越來越多。

But when you have so much debt, such as 37 trillion dollars or any kind of debt, there are two ways to fix that problem.

但是，當你有如此多的債務，比如 37 萬億美元或任何形式的債務時，有兩種方法可以解決這個問題。

The first one is the hard and the second one is an easy way.

第一種方法比較難，第二種方法比較簡單。

The hard way is the best way to solve any kind of debt problem.

艱難的方式是解決各種債務問題的最佳途徑。

If you have ever been in debt, you know how to solve the problem.

如果你曾經欠過債，你就會知道如何解決問題。

You work super hard, you save as much money as you can and you pay off your debt, until you bring your debt levels to sustainable levels, let's say where 5 to 10 percent of your income shouldn't go on the interest payments.

你要超級努力地工作，儘可能多地存錢並償還債務，直到你的債務水準達到可持續的水準，比方說，你收入的 5%至 10%不應該用於支付利息。

If it's more than that, you are in trouble.

如果超出這個範圍，你就有麻煩了。

If you are making 50 thousand dollars and then 20 thousand dollars are simply interest payments, then you are in a serious problem.

如果你的收入是 5 萬美元，而其中 2 萬美元只是利息支出，那麼你的問題就嚴重了。

However, the United States will take the absolutely different path.

然而，美國將走絕對不同的道路。

And that's based on the big beautiful bill and what exactly Donald Trump has said.

而這一切都建立在美麗的大法案和唐納德-特朗普所說的基礎之上。

The first way is to lower down the interest rate.

When you lower down interest rate, the cost of servicing the debt is going to go down and you are going to have winners on one side and losers on the other side.

當你降低利率時，還本付息的成本就會下降，一邊是贏家，一邊是輸家。

If you have borrowed, let's say 100 thousand dollars, a 10% interest rate, then every year you have to make a 10 thousand dollar payment.

如果你借了 10 萬美元，利率是 10%，那麼每年你必須支付 1 萬美元。

But if we lower down the cost of servicing that debt from 10% to 5%, suddenly you only have to pay 5 thousand dollars to service that debt.

但是，如果我們把還本付息的成本從 10%降到 5%，那麼突然之間，你只需要支付 5000 美元就可以還本付息了。

Yes, but the person who lent you that money is a loser right now.

是的，但借給你錢的人現在是個失敗者。

He is making significantly less money than he used to in the past.

Now imagine if he actually lent you the money in the beginning at 5% interest rate, but now he is going to simply make 1% interest rate.

現在試想一下，如果他一開始以 5%的利率借給你錢，但現在他只想賺取 1%的利率。

He is an absolute loser because he is not even going to make as much as inflation.

他絕對是個失敗者，因為他的收入甚至不及通貨膨脹率。

The second way to solve the crisis with the debt is to weaken the currency.

解決債務危機的第二個辦法是削弱貨幣。

And that means that we are going to make the dollars much less valuable than they are right now.

這意味著我們將使美元的價值大大低於現在的價值。

And again, just like any other circumstances, it is going to have a winner and it is going to have a loser.

同樣，就像任何其他情況一樣，有贏家，也有輸家。

Now if you look at the price of the gold over time, for example, back in 2000, it used to cost 269 dollars per ounce.

現在，如果你看看一段時間以來的黃金價格，例如，早在 2000 年，黃金的價格為每盎司 269 美元。

如今，它的價格約為 3400 美元。

Now let's ask the question is that, what exactly has happened to gold over time?

現在，讓我們問一個問題：隨著時間的推移，黃金究竟發生了什麼？

Was it such a great investment that the price of gold has skyrocketed in such a short period of time?

黃金價格在如此短的時間內暴漲，這是否就是一項偉大的投資？

What actually happened is that the value of the dollar over this period of time has gone so down that the price of gold had to adjust to the new value of the dollar.

實際情況是，在這段時間裡，美元貶值嚴重，黃金價格不得不根據美元的新價值進行調整。

Every single year you go to the grocery store and prices have increased.

每年你去雜貨店買東西，價格都在上漲。

And every single year, even though that you make as much money as you used to in the past, you can buy less things.

每一年，即使你掙的錢和過去一樣多，你能買的東西卻越來越少。

That's what we mean when the value of the dollar has gone down.

If you have borrowed 37 trillion dollars in US dollars, suddenly you devalue the currency that you have today, it is also going to devalue the entire 37 trillion dollars, which means that now it's much easier to pay off the 37 trillion dollars.

如果你用美元借了 37 萬億美元，突然間你讓今天的貨幣貶值，那麼這 37 萬億美元也會全部貶值，這意味著現在償還這 37 萬億美元要容易得多。

Let's say that you borrowed 100 thousand dollars from your friend 30 years ago.

假設 30 年前你向朋友借了 10 萬美元。

Is it easier for you to pay that 100 thousand dollars in debt, assuming that there is no any kind of interest?

假設沒有任何利息，你是否更容易償還這 10 萬美元的債務？

And who controls the value of the dollar?

That's what the fed and the government do.

So if they can artificially devalue the value of the dollar, suddenly, even though it's 37 trillion dollars, it is going to be a lot easier to pay.

是以，如果他們能人為地使美元貶值，那麼，即使是 37 萬億美元，支付起來也會突然變得容易得多。

But there are going to be losers, the people who lend their money to the US government.

但也會有輸家，那就是把錢借給美國政府的人。

And it's already happening, according to Donald Trump himself, that the dollar is too valuable and it's overvalued, that's why we have to devalue it.

根據唐納德-特朗普本人的說法，美元太值錢了，被高估了，所以我們必須讓它貶值。

And over the last 6 months, it has already gone down by 13% at least compared to Europe.

而在過去 6 個月裡，與歐洲相比，至少已經下降了 13%。

Now, devaluing the dollar has a benefit, because it's going to make American exports much more  If you produce something in America and then you sell it, let's say in China or Japan, they are going to buy it with their own local currencies.

現在，美元貶值有一個好處，因為它將使美國的出口量大大增加。如果你在美國生產某種產品，然後把它賣到中國或日本，他們會用本國貨幣購買。

But to buy it, they have to buy American dollars.

但要購買，他們必須購買美元。

So if you are going to devalue the dollar, suddenly buying stuff from America is going to be much cheaper, which means that demand for American goods are going to increase, which means that America is going to export much more goods and services, which means that the economy is going to grow over time.

是以，如果美元貶值，從美國買東西就會突然便宜很多，這意味著對美國商品的需求會增加，這意味著美國會出口更多的商品和服務，這意味著經濟會長期增長。

So there is a logic behind it if you are trying to grow the economy or the GDP by focusing on exports alone.

是以，如果僅靠出口來實現經濟或國內生產總值的增長，這背後是有道理的。

On the other side, it is going to make Americans much weaker.

另一方面，這會讓美國人變得更加軟弱。

Now, you are still going to make the exact same 100 thousand dollars.

現在，你仍將賺取完全相同的 10 萬美元。

You have money in your bank account, in your savings account, let's say 100 or 200 thousand dollars, and that's a lot of money.

你的銀行賬戶和儲蓄賬戶裡有一筆錢，比方說 10 或 20 萬美元，這是一筆不小的數目。

But now, those 200 thousand dollars can buy a lot less things, because in relation to foreign currencies, the US dollar just got significantly weaker.

但現在，這 20 萬美元能買的東西少了很多，因為相對於外幣而言，美元剛剛大幅走弱。

And the US every year imports around 4 trillion dollars in goods and services.

美國每年進口約 4 萬億美元的商品和服務。

And most of the things have some kind of pots that are being imported from the rest of the world, which means that inflation in the US is going to keep growing because you simply devalue the currency.

而大多數東西都有某種從世界其他地方進口的鍋，這意味著美國的通貨膨脹會持續增長，因為你只需讓貨幣貶值。

Simply because buying things from other countries will become more expensive.

原因很簡單，因為從其他國家購買東西會變得更加昂貴。

But there is another implication of lowering interest rates and weakening the currency.

但是，降低利率和削弱貨幣還有另一個含義。

When you lower down the cost of debt, that means that the people who loan their money are suddenly going to get much lower returns out of their investments.

當你降低債務成本時，這就意味著借錢的人從投資中獲得的回報會突然大大降低。

When you are going to go and buy a car and you want to take money from the bank, which means that you are borrowing that debt, you are borrowing that debt from somewhere, right?

當你要去買車時，你想從銀行借錢，這意味著你要借債，你要從某個地方借債，對嗎？

And the bank is borrowing it from someone else, which means that from one side we have investors who keep their money in the bank, on the other side we have people who are borrowing that money from the bank.

銀行從別人那裡借錢，也就是說，一邊是把錢存在銀行的投資者，另一邊是向銀行借錢的人。

If there are no people on the other side who are ready to loan their money to the bank and to you, then you have no place to take that money from.

如果另一方沒有人願意把錢借給銀行和你，那麼你就無處取錢。

If you want to borrow money from me, and I am not willing to give you money or lend you money, then you won't have that money at all, or vice versa.

如果你想向我借錢，而我不願意給你錢或借錢給你，那麼你就根本拿不到錢，反之亦然。

That's why if lenders on one side are not going to get enough decent returns on their investments, then they are not going to lend their money to the banks, which means that banks will not have the money to lend it to you, which means that the entire financial system could collapse.

這就是為什麼如果一方的貸款人無法從投資中獲得足夠體面的回報，那麼他們就不會把錢借給銀行，這意味著銀行將沒有錢借給你，這意味著整個金融體系可能崩潰。

Of course, that is an exaggeration and hypothetical example of how things could possibly be, but if you are a lender and if you are loaning money and you are not getting even enough returns that is above inflation rate, then what's the point of lending that money to the bank or to anyone else.

當然，這只是一個誇張和假設的例子，但如果你是貸款人，如果你貸出的錢連高於通貨膨脹率的足夠回報都得不到，那麼你把錢貸給銀行或其他人又有什麼意義呢？

I would rather take that money and invest it somewhere else that is going to provide me with a decent return that is higher than inflation.

我寧願把這筆錢拿去投資到其他地方，讓我獲得比通脹率更高的體面回報。

So if you want lending to be accessible, then the rate that the lenders are going to get out of their investments should be at least slightly higher than the rate of inflation.

是以，如果你希望貸款是可獲得的，那麼貸款人從其投資中獲得的利率至少應略高於通貨膨脹率。

So who are the people who are loaning their money to the US government?

那麼，把錢借給美國政府的都是些什麼人呢？

Of course, at number one, we have the federal reserve.

當然，排在第一位的是聯邦儲備局。

But the fed cannot consistently keep lending money to the US government.

但美聯儲不可能持續不斷地向美國政府貸款。

Because every time that the fed lends it, it creates direct inflation, because that's direct printing of money, which is why the government has to borrow that money from someone else.

因為美聯儲每次放貸都會造成直接的通貨膨脹，因為那是直接印鈔，所以政府必須向別人借錢。

And that somewhere else could possibly be, for example, foreign governments, such as Japan, China, and the UK, who are the major holders of the US debt.

其他地方可能是外國政府，比如日本、中國和英國，它們是美國債務的主要持有者。

And if they don't get enough return on their investments, they will no longer keep loaning their money to the US government.

如果他們的投資得不到足夠的回報，他們就不會再繼續把錢借給美國政府。

Do you see that it can create a problem for the US government in the future that they won't be able to borrow money from them since they won't be making enough returns and it won't make economic sense for them?

你是否認為這會給美國政府帶來麻煩，因為美國政府無法從他們那裡借到錢，因為他們無法獲得足夠的回報，這對他們來說沒有經濟意義？

Now you simply have to ask yourself, would you loan your money to anybody that is extremely unprofitable where they will manipulate the rates and they will artificially lower them down to benefit themselves and not benefit you at all?

現在，你只需捫心自問，你會把錢借給那些無利可圖的人嗎，他們會操縱利率，人為地降低利率，讓他們自己受益，而對你毫無益處？

You would only loan your money to somebody you know that is going to be safe and profitable at the same time.

你只會把錢借給一個你知道既安全又有利可圖的人。

Pension funds are also major lenders to the US government.

養老基金也是美國政府的主要貸款人。

So for example, you have a social security trust fund that is investing in treasury bills.

例如，你有一個投資於國庫券的社會保障信託基金。

And the point of social security isn't to earn a profit for themselves, but rather it's a system to make sure that the seniors have a certain type of income for them to pay for day-to-day expenses.

而社會保障的意義並不在於為自己賺取利潤，而是一種確保老年人有一定收入來支付日常開支的制度。

And social security works in such a way that they take the money from the people who are working and then they pay the seniors.

社會保障的運作方式是，他們從工作的人那裡拿錢，然後再支付給老年人。

But at the same time, they invest a portion of that money and based on that interest, they can pay off the pensions.

但與此同時，他們會將其中的一部分資金用於投資，並根據利息償還養老金。

However, if you lower down the interest rates, then those pension funds are not going to earn enough in order to pay the pensions.

但是，如果降低利率，那麼這些養老基金就無法賺取足夠的收益來支付養老金。

Imagine you have the entire social security system that has 1 trillion dollars in assets and they will invest in US treasury bills.

試想一下，整個社會保障體系擁有 1 萬億美元的資產，而他們將投資於美國國庫券。

而現在，他們正在從中賺取 5%的利潤。

So 5% on a trillion dollars is 50 billion dollars.

是以，一萬億美元的 5%就是 500 億美元。

Which means that every year they make 50 billion dollars and they can pay off 50 billion dollars in pension.

也就是說，他們每年賺 500 億美元，就可以支付 500 億美元的養老金。

Suddenly, if you lower down that from 5% let's say to 1%, now the pension funds are only making 1%, which is 10 billion dollars.

突然之間，如果把這個比例從 5%降到 1%，現在養老基金只賺 1%，也就是 100 億美元。

So you cut their budget from 50 billion dollars to 10 billion dollars, which means that the pension funds won't have enough money to pay off the seniors, which can again collapse the system.

是以，你將他們的預算從 500 億美元削減到 100 億美元，這意味著養老基金將沒有足夠的錢來償還老年人的養老金，這可能會再次導致系統崩潰。

So when you are solving the debt problem, by lowering down the interest rates, you are decentrifying the people to loan their money to the government of the United States.

是以，當你通過降低利率來解決債務問題時，你就是在分散人們借給美國政府的錢。

Like why would you loan your money to the government of the US knowing that you are not going to get good returns.

比如，明知不會有好的回報，為什麼還要把錢借給美國政府？

字幕列表影片播放

雷-達里奧準備迎接 1929 年那樣的大崩盤 (Ray Dalio is Preparing For A Crash Like 1929)

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crisis

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