Name: 美國正冒著巨大的風險... (America Is Taking a Huge Risk Right Now…)
Uploaded: 2025-07-18T18:59:53.000Z
Duration: 16 min 8 s

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如果失敗，美國經濟將萬劫不復。

to 不定詞

The president of the United States wants to fire the chairman of the Fed because he is not lowering down interest rates and it's costing the government hundreds of billions of dollars.

美國總統想要解僱美聯儲主席，因為他沒有降低利率，這讓政府損失了數千億美元。

If he succeeds at that, it is going to lead to such a catastrophe that most people cannot even comprehend right now.

如果他這樣做成功了，將會導致一場大多數人現在都無法理解的災難。

And I'm not trying to put words in his mouth.

He literally said that he wants to fire him because he had one job and he failed at that job.

他簡直就是在說，他想解僱他，因為他只做過一份工作，而他在那份工作上失敗了。

And that job is to lower down interest rates.

And if you think that I am exaggerating when I say that it can lead to such a huge catastrophe, let me explain what exactly is happening.

如果你認為我說這會導致如此巨大的災難是誇大其詞，那麼請允許我解釋一下到底發生了什麼。

The US economy has grown faster than any other economy in history.

美國經濟的增長速度超過了歷史上任何其他經濟體。

European economies has also grown alongside the US but they have tumbled over time.

歐洲經濟也曾與美國同步增長，但隨著時間的推移而下滑。

Even the Chinese economy that's supposed to overtake the United States couldn't actually catch up with the US and now it's slowing down.

即使是本應超越美國的中國經濟，實際上也無法趕上美國，而且現在還在放緩。

And it seems like in the next 30 to 40 years, the United States economy will stay at the top.

在未來的 30 到 40 年裡，美國的經濟似乎將一直保持領先地位。

One of the main reasons why the US economy grew so fast compared to others is because of debt.

與其他國家相比，美國經濟增長如此之快的主要原因之一就是債務。

If it wasn't for the national debt of 37 trillion dollars, the US wouldn't be such a powerful economy today.

如果沒有 37 萬億美元的國債，美國今天就不會成為如此強大的經濟體。

It sounds a bit controversial but it makes sense when you watch the intuant video.

這聽起來有點爭議，但看了直觀的視頻後就明白了。

We have a good debt and we have a bad debt.

我們有一筆好債，也有一筆壞債。

A good debt is the kind of debt that makes you money.

好債務就是能讓你賺錢的債務。

If you borrow 1 million dollars, a 2% interest rate for example, and then you can invest it in your own business and get a rate of return of 10% then you are making 8% returns which is a great business.

如果你借了 100 萬美元，比如利率為 2%，然後你可以將其投資於自己的企業，並獲得 10%的回報率，那麼你就能獲得 8%的回報，這是一筆很好的生意。

Let's say you borrow 1 million dollars, a 2% servicing that debt is 20 thousand dollars but your business makes 10% which means that you are making 100 thousand dollars but the cost of servicing the debt is 20 thousand dollars.

比方說，你借了 100 萬美元，還本付息的 2% 是 2 萬美元，但你的企業賺了 10%，這意味著你賺了 10 萬美元，但還本付息的成本是 2 萬美元。

You borrow the money, you pay back the money after a year and you pay the 20 thousand dollars when you have earned 100 thousand dollars.

你借錢，一年後還錢，當你賺到 10 萬美元時再還 2 萬美元。

And 80 thousand dollars of that is going to be your pure profit.

其中 8 萬美元將是你的純利潤。

There is no reason not to borrow that kind of debt.

The second type of debt are the bad debt.

These are the types of debt that don't actually make you any kind of money.

這類債務實際上不會給你帶來任何收益。

Imagine you go and get a car loan and buy yourself a car.

想象一下，你去申請汽車貸款，給自己買了一輛車。

A car is a depreciating asset, it loses value over time, and it doesn't actually get you a real return.

汽車是一種貶值資產，它會隨著時間的推移而貶值，實際上並不能給你帶來實際的回報。

Yes, it's great to have a fancy car but if you have actually borrowed to buy that car then you have to continue paying interest on that debt.

是的，擁有一輛高級轎車固然很好，但如果你確實是借錢買的車，那麼你就必須繼續為這筆債務支付利息。

The second type of bad debts are the credit card debts.

People usually use credit cards in order to go to fancy restaurants, buy stuff that they cannot possibly afford.

人們通常使用信用卡去高級，上等餐廳吃飯，買他們根本買不起的東西。

Yes, it might actually feel great to go to fancy restaurants but now you have to pay a 25% interest rate on that debt.

是的，去高級餐廳吃飯的感覺可能真的很棒，但現在你必須為這筆債務支付 25% 的利息。

You might take a loan and go and have a vacation with your wife.

你可以貸款和妻子一起去度假。

It feels great, you can say that it's an investment in myself but now you have to pay back that debt plus interest and that debt is not making you any kind of money.

這感覺很好，你可以說這是對自己的投資，但現在你必須償還債務和利息，而債務並沒有給你帶來任何收益。

So what kind of debt the United States has been borrowing all this time that made it such a great economy?

那麼，美國一直以來借的是什麼債，使其經濟如此發達？

On one side, the United States has been borrowing money to build infrastructure.

一方面，美國一直在借錢建設基礎設施。

You build the roads, bridges, railway, planes, and everything.

你們建造道路、橋樑、鐵路、飛機和一切。

All that makes Americans more productive, Americans start building more businesses, working harder, they pay more taxes, and the US GDP grows to the largest GDP humanity has ever seen in its entire history.

所有這一切使美國人的生產力更高，美國人開始建立更多的企業，更加努力地工作，繳納更多的稅收，美國的國內生產總值增長到人類有史以來最大的水準。

Or you build technologies by investing in businesses.

或者通過投資企業來建立技術。

Those technologies start revolutionizing the way we live, the way we work, and makes us more productive, we make more money, and the US economy grows.

這些技術開始徹底改變我們的生活方式和工作方式，提高我們的生產力，讓我們賺更多的錢，促進美國經濟增長。

Or you build the largest military, and in the process, you might build some of the great technologies, such as GPS, it was an invention of the US military.

或者你建立了最大的軍隊，在這個過程中，你可能會建立一些偉大的技術，比如全球定位系統，它是美國軍方的發明。

Can you imagine the world today without GPS?

你能想象沒有 GPS 的當今世界嗎？

We would not have smartphones, we would not have google, and we would not have even the internet without the GPS.

沒有 GPS，我們就沒有智能手機，沒有谷歌，甚至沒有互聯網。

On the other side, there are bad debts the government can actually get as well.

另一方面，政府實際上也可以獲得一些壞賬。

For example, paying you to stay at home because there is some kind of a crisis outside your homes.

例如，因為外面發生了某種危機而付錢讓你們呆在家裡。

And that's what happened in 2020 and 2021.

這就是 2020 年和 2021 年的情況。

Or borrow money to run programs that are not profitable and are not making America wealthier.

或者借錢來運行那些無利可圖、無法讓美國變得更富裕的項目。

Or start wars that makes absolutely no sense but you want to start that war because you simply want to start these wars.

或者發動完全沒有意義的戰爭，但你想發動那場戰爭，因為你就是想發動這些戰爭。

So over time, America started taking really bad debts that actually got it to the position that it's right now.

是以，隨著時間的推移，美國開始揹負真正的壞賬，這實際上使它陷入了現在的境地。

The problem is that when that debt gets out of control, if you run a slow debt or a small debt, it's fine.

問題是，當債務失去控制時，如果你的債務運行緩慢或債務規模較小，就不會有問題。

The United States right now is going through a huge debt collapse.

美國目前正在經歷一場巨大的債務崩潰。

On one side, the government is spending around 7 trillion dollars.

一方面，政府支出約 7 萬億美元。

On the other side, it is actually earning 5 trillion dollars, which leaves it with almost like 1.9 trillion dollars of deficit.

另一方面，它實際上賺取了 5 萬億美元，這使得它幾乎有 1.9 萬億美元的赤字。

This year it's going to be like 2.1 trillion dollars.

And the projection is that this number is going to continue rising.

And the US is now in a position where it actually took too many bad debts and very few good debts.

而美國現在的情況是，它實際上揹負了太多的壞賬，而只有很少的好賬。

And these bad debts are incurring a lot of interest and it cannot possibly pay off all of this interest.

而這些壞賬產生了大量利息，它不可能還清所有利息。

So, if you do the math, mathematically, the United States will run out of business very very soon.

是以，從數學角度來看，美國很快就會破產。

On one side, you can take the hard way and fix this problem.

一方面，你可以採取強硬手段解決這個問題。

So you're running a huge military, cut the military.

所以你要管理一支龐大的軍隊，削減軍費。

You have social programs, cut the social programs.

你有社會計劃，那就削減社會計劃。

Instead of spending 7 trillion dollars, you're going to spend 5 trillion dollars because you're earning 5 trillion dollars.

你不用花 7 萬億美元，而是要花 5 萬億美元，因為你賺了 5 萬億美元。

You might also raise taxes because you want to pay a portion of your debt.

您也可能因為想償還部分債務而提高稅收。

It's very simple but it's very very difficult.

Imagine on one side you have a politician who will come and say, listen, when I get elected I will raise your taxes and I will cut your benefits.

試想一下，有一方的政客會說，聽著，當我當選後，我會提高你們的稅收，削減你們的福利。

Because on the other side, you will always have somebody who will say, when I get elected I will cut taxes and increase government benefits.

因為在另一方，總會有人說，等我當選後，我會減稅並增加政府福利。

That's the person who is going to get all the votes.

And that's exactly what happened for example in the last election.

And now we have the big beautiful bill that is going to worsen this entire situation and the deficit is going to grow much farther and the revenues are going to fall.

現在，我們又有了一個美麗的大法案，它將使整個局勢更加惡化，赤字將進一步增加，收入將下降。

I'm not saying what is good or what is bad, I'm simply telling you basic math.

我不是在說什麼是好，什麼是壞，我只是在告訴你基本的數學知識。

You don't have to be a genius to understand this.

你不必是天才也能明白這一點。

And there is an easy way to solve this problem.

有一個簡單的方法可以解決這個問題。

And it seems like the United States will take this path, at least based on everything that we see right now.

至少從我們現在看到的一切來看，美國似乎會走這條路。

And this is the path that Ray Dalio for example calls that How Countries Go Broke.

這就是雷-達里奧所說的 "國家如何破產 "之路。

In fact, that's the title of his recent book, How Countries Go Broke.

事實上，這正是他最近出版的新書《國家如何破產》的書名。

I would actually recommend everybody to go and read that book.

In order to understand how that works, we have to understand slightly how the system works.

為了瞭解其工作原理，我們必須略微瞭解一下該系統的工作原理。

On one side we have the White House and we have the Congress.

These are the people who manage the budget of the United States.

These are the people who decide how much taxes the government will raise and how much spending the government will have.

這些人決定著政府將增加多少稅收，以及政府將有多少開支。

What kind of government programs the government will have.

政府將制定什麼樣的政府計劃。

How much are we going to spend on that military?

是以，他們的工作就是管理預算。

On the other side you have the Federal Reserve that's supposed to be kind of part of the government but it's independent.

另一方面，美聯儲應該是政府的一部分，但它是獨立的。

And it's really great that it's independent because the job of the Fed is to maintain the stability of the country or the currency by managing the supply of money.

美聯儲的工作是通過管理貨幣供應來維持國家或貨幣的穩定，是以美聯儲的獨立非常重要。

If the Fed will be part of the government, then the government will simply force the Federal Reserve to print as much money as they want in order to fill the budget.

如果美聯儲將成為政府的一部分，那麼政府就會迫使美聯儲隨心所欲地印製鈔票，以填補預算。

And because the Fed is independent, this allows the US government to borrow as much money as possible.

由於美聯儲是獨立的，這使得美國政府可以儘可能多地借錢。

So on one side, when the government runs a deficit, like in this case you see over here, it creates a government bond and sells it in the market.

是以，一方面，當政府出現赤字時，就像你在這裡看到的這種情況，政府會發行政府債券並在市場上出售。

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美國正冒著巨大的風險... (America Is Taking a Huge Risk Right Now…)

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