Name: 世界大戰就是這樣開始的"，美國對伊朗的戰爭可能引發另一場戰爭 w/ Wolff 教授 (‘This is How World Wars Start,’ U.S. War on Iran Could Spark Another w/ Prof. Wolff)
Uploaded: 2025-06-23T13:43:35.000Z
Duration: 12 min 2 s

are facing the risk of a third world war.

正面臨著第三次世界大戰的危險。

反身代名詞

And I want everyone to ask themselves the question, for what?

我希望每個人都捫心自問，為什麼？

There were scheduled to be negotiations between the United States and the Iranians, agreed to by the United States and the Iranians, last Sunday.

美國和伊朗之間原定於上週日進行談判，美國和伊朗方面對此表示同意。

They were getting geared up for these negotiations to try diplomatically to resolve this.

他們正在為談判做準備，試圖通過外交途徑解決這一問題。

Colin Powell, remember him many, many years ago, the first black secretary of state, if I remember correctly.

科林-鮑威爾，還記得很多很多年前的他，如果我沒記錯的話，他是第一位黑人國務卿。

We're talking 2004, 20 years ago, was asked the question, is Iran developing a nuclear war that we have to worry about?

我們說的是 2004 年，20 年前，有人問了這樣一個問題：伊朗是否正在發展一場我們必須擔心的核戰爭？

And if you look up this business about a nuclear war, it has been going on for at least 20 years.

如果你查一查核戰爭這回事，它已經持續了至少 20 年。

They didn't develop one in those 20 years.

在這 20 年裡，他們沒有開發出一個。

You keep doing that, and then no one will believe you.

你再這樣下去，就沒人會相信你了。

And most of the world doesn't believe it now either.

現在世界上大多數人也不相信這一點。

Israel has wanted to bomb Iran for many years, particularly Mr. Netanyahu.

以色列多年來一直想轟炸伊朗，特別是內塔尼亞胡先生。

I won't go into here, although everyone ought to.

這裡我就不多說了，不過大家都應該知道。

What are you doing if you're a country of 7-8 million Jewish members of Israel?

如果你是一個擁有 700-800 萬以色列猶太成員的國家，你在做什麼？

Israel is already warring on the people of Gaza and causing itself unspeakable damage for years to come.

以色列已經在向加沙人民開戰，並在未來數年給自己造成難以言表的傷害。

Why would you open a second war in another place, this time with someone who can fight back, which the Palestinians in Gaza could scarcely do?

你為什麼要在另一個地方發動第二場戰爭，而這一次的對手是能夠反擊的人，加沙的巴勒斯坦人幾乎做不到這一點？

This is self-destructive, unless Mr. Netanyahu can count on the United States coming in.

這是自我毀滅，除非內塔尼亞胡先生能指望美國介入。

And if that were to happen, then where will Russia go?

如果發生這種情況，俄羅斯將何去何從？

This is how World War I and II got going, when one country invaded another, and then the alliances were called in.

第一次世界大戰和第二次世界大戰就是這樣打起來的，一個國家侵略另一個國家，然後結盟。

And the fact that there might be this much chance that Iran is somewhere near nuclear weapons, by this point, how much difference does that make?

而事實上，伊朗可能有這麼大的機會接近核武器，這一點又有多大區別呢？

There are probably 20 countries that have some kind of nuclear weapons program.

大概有 20 個國家擁有某種核武器計劃。

我們知道，俄羅斯、中國都有。

這是一個時間問題，而不是是否的問題。

We are being led down the garden path by people whose decision-making is off.

我們正被那些決策失誤的人引向花園小徑。

The United States has gotten together with all kinds of dictators around the world, non-dictators around the world, seeming not to care what they were, except for internal publicity.

美國與世界各地形形色色的獨裁者、非獨裁者走到了一起，除了內部宣傳之外，似乎並不在乎他們是什麼人。

And we're in bed with some who aren't dictators.

我們和一些不是獨裁者的人同流合汙。

We are protecting our interests, which is a polite way of saying we are taking care of the big oil companies who have interests around the world, and the big large corporations who have interests around the world.

我們是在保護我們的利益，這是一種禮貌的說法，我們是在照顧在世界各地都有利益的大石油公司，以及在世界各地都有利益的大公司。

And that means supporting governments, whether they're dictators or not, that are friendly to American business, and smashing governments that are unfriendly.

這意味著要支持對美國企業友好的政府，無論它們是否是獨裁者，並摧毀不友好的政府。

Indeed, the only change that has happened is the change since Vietnam.

事實上，唯一發生的變化是自越南以來的變化。

And that change is one that has to be spoken of honestly.

而這種變化是必須坦誠面對的。

The enemy was the Communist Party of Indochina, of Vietnam.

敵人是越南的印度支那共產黨。

現在，這個國家就是這樣運轉的。

And the Communist Party of Vietnam is now in charge of the government.

A lesson was drawn from that, which is that even if you're the biggest, richest, most militarily developed country in the world, and you go to war against one of the poorest countries in the world, Vietnam, at that time, you can be defeated.

從中得出的一個教訓是，即使你是世界上最大、最富有、軍事最發達的國家，但如果你對當時世界上最貧窮的國家之一越南開戰，你也有可能被打敗。

And one of the ways you get defeated is that your own people back home become upset by the dead soldiers coming home, by all that that implies, all the pain, all the suffering of the people who are hurt, or killed, or wounded, or driven to suicide, which a large number of our soldiers were from that time.

被打敗的方式之一就是，你自己家鄉的人民會因為死去的阿兵哥回家而感到不安，因為這意味著所有的痛苦，所有受傷、被殺、受傷或被迫自殺的人的痛苦，而我們當時的許多阿兵哥就是這樣。

So the idea came, can we in the future try to minimize the American losses, the American involvement?

於是就有了這樣的想法：我們今後能否儘量減少美國人的損失，減少美國人的參與？

Can we, to be blunt with you, can we find other people to fight our wars for us?

直截了當地說，我們能找到其他人替我們打仗嗎？

And that's what we're living through now.

We got the Ukrainians to fight the Russians since February of 2022.

自 2022 年 2 月起，我們就讓烏克蘭人與俄羅斯人作戰。

They're losing, but not American troops, not very many.

他們在損失，但不是美軍，不是很多。

And now we have Israel trying to do the same for us in Iran.

而現在，以色列試圖在伊朗為我們做同樣的事情。

Now, Ukraine is a small country, and it turns out Russia isn't.

現在，烏克蘭是一個小國，而事實證明俄羅斯並不小。

And it turns out that Ukraine, even with the support of the United States militarily and monetarily, and Europe, still can't win.

事實證明，即使有美國和歐洲在軍事和金錢上的支持，烏克蘭仍然無法獲勝。

That ought to teach another lesson, which it will, although we're not talking about that now.

這應該再給我們上一課，雖然我們現在不談這個，但它會的。

And Israel attacking Iran, there we go again, somebody else doing what we would like to see done.

以色列攻擊伊朗，我們又來了，別人做了我們希望看到的事情。

And Mr. Trump, with his usual waffling back and forth, is moving in that direction, at least as of what the news is that I can study now, not quite yet decided whether to commit American troops.

而特朗普先生，以他一貫的來回搖擺不定的態度，正在朝著這個方向前進，至少就我現在所能瞭解到的消息而言，他還沒有完全決定是否要投入美軍。

And let me say, as an American citizen, born here, lived here all my life, worked here all my life, to this minute, Iran is a bigger, more powerful country than Vietnam was.

讓我說，作為一個美國公民，我在這裡出生，在這裡生活了一輩子，在這裡工作了一輩子，直到現在，伊朗是一個比越南更大、更強大的國家。

And this is not going to be anything like the make-believe comic book discussions we have.

這和我們在漫畫書中的虛構討論完全不同。

And let me remind everyone as well, there are treaties, mutual defense treaties, that we know of between Iran and Russia, and then again between Russia and China.

我還要提醒大家，我們知道伊朗和俄羅斯之間有條約，有共同防禦條約，俄羅斯和中國之間也有條約。

We're really going to risk a war whose outcome is the end of all of us, of the civilization we've created, if we're not literally wiped out as a species, we will be driven backwards in time in a way that ought to make everyone stop and sit down.

我們真的要去冒一場戰爭的風險，而戰爭的結果將是我們所有人的滅亡，我們所創造的文明的滅亡，如果我們不是真的作為一個物種被消滅的話，我們將在時間的長河中倒退，而這種倒退的方式應該讓每個人都停下來坐下來。

Last thing, as recently as March of this year, Tulsi Gabbard, as the head of our intelligence operations in this country, responded to questions in the Congress by saying there was no immediate danger that Iran would even have a nuclear weapon, let alone the capacity to use it.

最後，就在今年 3 月，作為我國情報部門負責人的圖爾西-加巴德在回答國會的提問時說，伊朗甚至不存在擁有核武器的直接危險，更不用說使用核武器的能力了。

And let's remember, if Iran did that, it would be alone.

我們要記住，如果伊朗這樣做，它將是孤軍奮戰。

It would be at risk of damage far beyond anything Israel could or would do.

它所面臨的破壞風險將遠遠超出以色列能夠或將要做的任何事情。

Afterwards, Mr. Trump contradicted her, and as do the people Mr. Trump has around him, she immediately said, oh no, she and he are on the same page, even though literally they said the opposite.

之後，特朗普先生反駁了她，就像特朗普先生身邊的人一樣，她馬上說，哦，不，她和他是站在同一條戰線上的，儘管字面上他們說的正好相反。

So we don't know anymore that we know that there's a tariff or not, because when he says it, it's one thing.

是以，我們不再知道是否存在關稅，因為當他說出來時，那是一回事。

他現在會做什麼，我們不得而知。

By the way, it is a peculiar kind of torture of the Iranian people, of the Israeli people, and of the American people, to have questions that are vital to our survival in the hands of an individual who has demonstrated his instability over and over again.

順便說一句，把關係到我們生死存亡的問題交到一個一再證明自己不穩定的人手中，這是對伊朗人民、以色列人民和美國人民的一種特殊折磨。

What we accept as a people tells you that either Mr. Trump is extraordinarily skilled in this up and down roller coaster, or the American people are extraordinarily passive in the face of it.

作為一個民族，我們所接受的事實告訴你，要麼特朗普先生在這種上上下下的雲霄飛車中異常熟練，要麼美國人民在這種雲霄飛車面前異常被動。