Name: 伊朗是否即將擁有核武器？| 英國廣播公司新聞 (Is Iran close to having nuclear weapons? | BBC News)
Uploaded: 2025-06-19T10:53:24.000Z
Duration: 2 min 59 s

情態副詞

Israel says its attacks on Iran are necessary to stop what it calls imminent production of a nuclear weapon, but Tehran insists its nuclear program is only for civilian purposes.

以色列稱，對伊朗的攻擊是阻止其所謂的即將生產核武器所必需的，但德黑蘭堅稱其核計劃僅用於民用目的。

Well, our analysis editor, Ross Atkins, along with the team at BBC Verify, have taken a look at what we know about Iran's nuclear program.

我們的分析編輯羅斯-阿特金斯（Ross Atkins）與英國廣播公司（BBC）的核查團隊一起，對我們所瞭解的伊朗核計劃進行了分析。

Benjamin Netanyahu's warnings about Iran go back a long way.

本雅明-內塔尼亞胡對伊朗的警告由來已久。

They hope will reach the eastern seaboard of the United States within 15 years.

他們希望能在 15 年內到達美國東部沿海地區。

Weeks away from having the fissile material for an entire arsenal of nuclear bombs.

只差幾周，我們就能獲得製造整個核武庫的裂變材料。

Iran could produce a nuclear weapon in a very short time, it could be a year, it could be within a few months, less than a year.

伊朗可以在很短的時間內生產出核武器，可能是一年，也可能是幾個月，甚至不到一年。

But there are questions about whether that's the case.

Israel says it's targeted two of Iran's nuclear facilities, Natanz and Isfahan.

以色列稱，它已將伊朗的兩個核設施--納坦茲和伊斯法罕--作為目標。

It hasn't said if it's targeted another called Fordo.

它還沒有說是否針對另一個叫 Fordo 的人。

And Iran acknowledges that Fordo and Natanz produce enriched uranium, which can be used in power plants and nuclear weapons.

伊朗承認，福爾多和納坦茲生產濃縮鈾，可用於發電廠和核武器。

Iran though says its nuclear program is peaceful.

伊朗稱其核計劃是和平性質的。

On this, the global nuclear watchdog has raised concerns about the growth of Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium, and it says it can't verify Iran's intentions are entirely peaceful because of a lack of cooperation.

對此，全球核監察機構對伊朗高濃縮鈾儲備的增長表示擔憂，並稱由於缺乏合作，無法證實伊朗的意圖完全是和平的。

But it found no proof of a systematic effort to move into a nuclear weapon.

但是，它沒有發現任何證據證明有人在有計劃地製造核武器。

Or there's the US, in March, its director of National Intelligence said, the US continues to assess that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon.

美國國家情報總監在三月份表示，美國繼續評估伊朗沒有在製造核武器。

But on that, President Trump has now said this.

但在這方面，特朗普總統現在說了這樣一句話。

Okay, what she said, I think they were very close to having.

好吧，她說的，我覺得他們很接近了。

He gave no evidence to support that claim.

他沒有提供任何證據來支持這一說法。

And all of this follows the 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and the US, the UK and others.

而這一切都是在伊朗與美國、英國和其他國家達成 2015 年核協議之後發生的。

In return for sanctions relief, Iran agreed to limit its enrichment of uranium to civilian purposes.

作為制裁減免的回報，伊朗同意將其鈾濃縮活動限制在民用目的範圍內。

But in 2018, President Trump pulled the US out of the deal, calling it disastrous.

但在 2018 年，美國總統特朗普將美國從該協議中撤出，稱其為災難性的。

US sanctions returned, and Iran, which had stuck to the terms of the deal, began to breach them, and that's continued.

美國的制裁捲土重來，遵守協議條款的伊朗開始違反協議，而且這種情況一直持續。

Since then, Iran has significantly increased the number of centrifuges it operates to enrich uranium.

此後，伊朗大幅增加了用於濃縮鈾的離心機數量。

It has significantly increased its stockpiles of uranium.

For its part, Israel is widely believed to have nuclear weapons, though it refuses to confirm or deny this and hasn't signed the UN nuclear non-proliferation treaty.

就以色列而言，人們普遍認為它擁有核武器，但它拒絕證實或否認這一點，也沒有簽署聯合國核不擴散條約。

And as we watch this conflict, we know of Iran's threats and hostility towards Israel, that it doesn't recognize its right to exist.

當我們觀察這場衝突時，我們知道伊朗對以色列的威脅和敵意，它不承認以色列的生存權。

And we know Israel wants regime change in Iran.

我們知道以色列希望伊朗政權更迭。

But Israel's justification for these attacks is that it faces an imminent and existential threat from Iran's nuclear program.

但以色列發動這些襲擊的理由是，它面臨著伊朗核計劃迫在眉睫的生存威脅。

So far that doesn't match publicly available evidence or expert assessments.

到目前為止，這與公開的證據或專家評估並不相符。

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