Name: "大事即將來臨......沒有人準備好" (“Something Big Is Coming… And No One Is Ready”)
Uploaded: 2025-06-17T18:28:31.000Z
Duration: 11 min 39 s

程度副詞

China and the United States are on the brink of signing a trade agreement that will put an end to a trade war that almost wiped out the global trade.

中國和美國即將簽署一項貿易協定，結束幾乎摧毀全球貿易的貿易戰。

情態助動詞 B1

An American icon, Apple, dangerously came close to witness their business evaporate, Nike almost had to triple their prices to survive, and Walmart might start to shut down store after store just to stay afloat.

美國的標誌性企業--蘋果公司險些目睹自己的業務蒸發，耐克公司幾乎不得不將價格提高三倍才能生存，沃爾瑪可能開始關閉一家又一家商店以維持生計。

進階形容詞比較級句型

It started with the United States, but the moment China responded, it spiraled out of control, and tariffs reached as high as 245 percent.

一開始是美國，但中國一回應，情況就失控了，關稅高達 245%。

While the deal isn't yet signed by President Trump and Chairman Xi, Trump's tweets can actually give us a glimpse of hope of what the final deal could actually look like.

雖然特朗普總統和習主席尚未簽署協議，但特朗普的推文實際上讓我們看到了最終協議的希望。

On paper, it looks like a big win for Trump, a 55 percent tariff on all Chinese goods and just 10 percent tariff on American exports.

從紙面上看，特朗普似乎大獲全勝，對所有中國商品徵收 55% 的關稅，而對美國出口商品僅徵收 10% 的關稅。

But remember, things aren't always what they seem.

但請記住，事情並不總是表面看起來那樣。

So let's try to figure out how the final deal most likely is going to look like, what opportunities does it present, and how you can use it to profit from the stock market.

是以，讓我們試著搞清楚最終交易最有可能是什麼樣子，會帶來什麼機會，以及如何利用它從股市中獲利。

If you are ready, give this video a thumbs up and let's get right into it.

如果您準備好了，請為這段視頻豎起大拇指，讓我們開始吧。

This chart perfectly illustrates what's wrong between the two nations.

這張圖表完美地說明了兩國之間的問題所在。

It's by far the biggest economic imbalance in modern history.

這是現代史上迄今為止最大的經濟失衡。

Every year, hundreds of billions of dollars will flow out of the United States to pay for Chinese goods, everything from computers and electronics to clothes and furniture.

每年，數千億美元將流出美國，用於購買中國商品，從電腦和電子產品到服裝和傢俱，應有盡有。

And when Donald Trump took the presidency in 2016, his first priority was to fix this chart.

而當唐納德-特朗普在 2016 年就任總統時，他的首要任務就是修復這張圖表。

Trump struck first, slapping tariffs on 34 billion dollars worth of Chinese goods that entered the United States and accused China of unfair trade practices and theft of intellectual property.

特朗普先下手為強，對進入美國的價值 340 億美元的中國商品加徵關稅，並指責中國採取不公平貿易做法和竊取知識產權。

Beijing immediately retaliated to the United States by imposing tariffs on American cars, soybeans and other agricultural products.

北京立即對美國進行報復，對美國汽車、大豆和其他農產品徵收關稅。

After a few rounds of retaliation, the two countries came together and signed an agreement.

在幾輪報復之後，兩國走到一起，簽署了一項協議。

While Beijing started buying more from the United States, the problem is far from being fixed.

雖然中國政府開始從美國購買更多商品，但問題遠未得到解決。

The trade imbalance is still enormous between the two countries.

兩國之間的貿易不平衡仍然十分嚴重。

And Trump's second trade war is not going to fix the problem.

而特朗普的第二次貿易戰並不能解決問題。

The main problem isn't that Chinese companies are selling in the United States.

主要問題不在於中國公司在美國銷售。

But it's American companies who want to build their products in China.

但正是美國公司希望在中國製造產品。

Even before Trump, Chinese smartphones were subject to 20% tariff entering the United States.

即使在特朗普上臺之前，中國智能手機進入美國也要徵收 20% 的關稅。

而中國的電動汽車面臨著 100%的關稅。

The United States mostly imports from China smartphones, batteries and computers.

美國主要從中國進口智能手機、電池和電腦。

Most of the smartphones are being imported by Apple to make sure that your latest iPhone is available every single September.

大多數智能手機都是由蘋果公司進口的，以確保每年 9 月都能買到最新款的 iPhone。

Most of the computers are being imported by American companies such as Dell, HP and of course Apple.

大部分電腦由美國公司進口，如戴爾、惠普，當然還有蘋果。

And batteries are being sourced by EVs of the United States such as Tesla and GM to make sure that your Model 3 is available whenever you want it.

特斯拉和通用汽車等美國電動汽車公司正在採購電池，以確保您的 Model 3 隨時可用。

So most of the Chinese imports are not being made by Chinese companies, but rather by American companies to make sure that their business is viable in the United States.

是以，大部分中國進口商品並非由中國公司生產，而是由美國公司生產，以確保其業務在美國的可行性。

On the other hand, United States can offer China much, besides soybeans and crude oil.

另一方面，除了大豆和原油，美國還能為中國提供很多東西。

And you can't buy as much soybeans in order to compensate for the iPhones, simply for the fact that soybeans aren't worth as much as iPhones or computers or Mac or even batteries.

你不可能買那麼多大豆來彌補 iPhone 的損失，原因很簡單，大豆沒有 iPhone、電腦、Mac 甚至電池值錢。

If a US company will come up with a smartphone, you can bet your money that there is a Chinese competitor on the horizon.

如果一家美國公司將推出智能手機，那麼你可以打賭，中國的競爭對手就在地平線上。

Apple once led the Chinese market, but Chinese competitors took over and Apple slipped to a third place overtaken by Huawei and Vivo.

蘋果公司曾一度領跑中國市場，但中國競爭對手後來居上，蘋果公司滑落到第三位，被華為和 vivo 超越。

The same thing is happening in the EV market.

Tesla once dominated the Chinese market, now being overtaken by BYD.

特斯拉曾在中國市場佔據主導地位，如今已被比亞迪超越。

The US can't manufacture most of the products cheaper than China.

美國生產的大部分產品都無法比中國便宜。

So the only way to fix this chart or this problem is for American consumers to deny themselves affordable Chinese goods in favor of more expensive American alternatives.

是以，要解決這一圖表或這一問題，唯一的辦法就是美國消費者拒絕購買價格低廉的中國商品，轉而購買價格更高的美國替代品。

It might not be a problem for the top 10% of Americans who are making a lot of money, but it is going to make significantly poorer the bottom 50% of Americans who are making on average around 20 thousand dollars a year.

對於收入最高的 10%的美國人來說，這可能不是問題，但對於年收入平均在 2 萬美元左右的收入最低的 50%的美國人來說，這將使他們變得更加貧窮。

Which means that most Americans are going to get poorer.

這意味著大多數美國人會變得更窮。

But it seems like America is not going to take that approach and is not going to stop trading with China.

但美國似乎不會採取這種做法，也不會停止與中國的貿易。

至少唐納德-特朗普是這麼說的。

Donald Trump boasted on his social media that China is going to give the United States instant access to the rare earth minerals.

唐納德-特朗普在其社交媒體上吹噓說，中國將讓美國立即獲得稀土礦。

But rare earth minerals aren't actually that rare.

The United States has plenty of these rare earth minerals to meet the domestic demand from defense to smartphones to computers for decades to come.

美國擁有大量的稀土礦，可以滿足未來幾十年從國防、智能手機到計算機的國內需求。

But extracting them and processing them is where the challenge is to make them profitable.

但是，如何提取和加工它們，才是使它們有利可圖的挑戰所在。

Which is why most of the companies in the US are not willing to take that risk.

這就是為什麼美國的大多數公司都不願意冒這個險。

Because it's not a profitable industry to begin with.

因為這本來就不是一個有利可圖的行業。

On the other hand, China is willing to get its hands dirty and produce those minerals at a loss.

另一方面，中國也願意弄髒自己的手，虧本生產這些礦產。

So the final deal will most likely look like a victory for Trump on one hand.

是以，一方面，最終協議很可能看起來像是特朗普的勝利。

On the other side, there are going to be exceptions for Chinese smartphones, computers, and most importantly, rare earth minerals.

另一方面，中國的智能手機、電腦以及最重要的稀土礦產品也會有例外。

China does not mind supplying the United States with as much rare earth minerals the United States wants.

美國想要多少稀土礦，中國就提供多少。

Anyways, it wasn't a problem in the first place.

不管怎麼說，這本來就不是問題。

Only through massive economies of scale and massive production, China can turn this unprofitable industry sustainable.

只有通過大規模經濟和大規模生產，中國才能使這一無利可圖的行業實現可持續發展。

If China will stop supplying the United States with rare earth minerals, it will force America to get into this industry as a matter of national security, or it will create opportunities for other countries.

如果中國停止向美國供應稀土礦，這將迫使美國出於國家安全考慮進入這一行業，或者為其他國家創造機會。

So the only way is to keep supplying the world to make this industry profitable for China.

是以，唯一的辦法就是繼續向世界供貨，讓這一產業為中國帶來利潤。

So if the United States can't beat China on prices, and the US is not willing to stop trading with China, what exactly the United States is getting out of this deal?

那麼，如果美國不能在價格上擊敗中國，而美國又不願意停止與中國的貿易，那麼美國究竟能從這筆交易中得到什麼呢？

Well, by looking at Trump's second tweet, we might actually have a glimpse of hope of what exactly is happening.

那麼，通過特朗普的第二條推特，我們或許真的能看到一絲希望，知道到底發生了什麼。

President Xi and I are going to work closely to open up China to American trade.

習主席和我將密切合作，推動中國對美國貿易的開放。

China heavily restricts foreign companies to operate in China.

中國嚴格限制外國公司在華經營。

While American icons such as GM, Apple, and Tesla have presence in China, the Chinese government blocks those firms to take full advantage out of the market from China.

雖然通用汽車、蘋果和特斯拉等美國標誌性企業在中國都有業務，但中國政府卻阻止這些企業充分利用中國市場。

BYD received 3.7 billion dollars in subsidies from the government that allowed it to undercut prices and dominate the EV market in China.

比亞迪從政府獲得 37 億美元的補貼，從而得以壓低價格，在中國電動車市場佔據主導地位。

Some of the Google services are entirely blocked in China.

谷歌的一些服務在中國完全被屏蔽。

And Facebook wasn't even allowed to enter China in the first place.

而 Facebook 甚至一開始就不被允許進入中國。

And these are just some of the examples that restrict American companies to take full advantage out of the Chinese market.

這些只是限制美國公司充分利用中國市場的部分例子。

Losing China is going to cost the United States enormously, but in 5 to 10 years, the market is going to adapt and China is going to be replaced.

失去中國會讓美國付出巨大代價，但 5 到 10 年後，市場會適應，中國會被取代。

On the other hand, losing the United States is going to slow down Chinese progress for decades to come.

另一方面，失去美國將在未來數十年拖慢中國的進步。

So this is how the only reasonable and feasible agreement between the two countries would look like.

這就是兩國之間唯一合理可行的協議。

A victory on paper for Trump, so that Republicans are going to secure the midterm election that will happen next year, but includes exceptions for most Chinese goods to enter the United States tariff-free, from smartphones to computers, in exchange for softer rules for American corporations.

對特朗普來說，這是一場紙面上的勝利，這樣共和黨就能確保明年中期選舉的勝利，但其中也包括對大多數中國商品免徵關稅的例外情況，從智能手機到電腦，以換取對美國公司更寬鬆的規定。

That would open new doors for American corporations.

這將為美國公司打開新的大門。

They will be able to take advantage out of the market where 1.4 billion people are consumers, which means that in the next couple of years, most of the American companies will be able to at least double their sales, and that will reflect in their stock prices.

這意味著，在未來幾年裡，大多數美國公司的銷售額將至少翻一番，這將反映在它們的股票價格上。

Stock prices are a reflection of how much the companies are earning, and tapping a market with over a billion people is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for most of the companies that would allow them to at least double if not triple their stock prices.

股票價格反映了公司的盈利情況，而開拓一個擁有十多億人口的市場，對大多數公司來說都是千載難逢的機會，這將使它們的股票價格至少翻一番，甚至三番。

For example, China often requires for US companies to share their proprietary technology with local competitors if they want to sell to them, and that limits sales of companies such as Qualcomm, because sharing their designs with a local competitor risks their intellectual property to be stolen by them, and that limits their sales.

例如，中國經常要求美國公司如果要向當地競爭對手銷售產品，就必須與他們分享專有技術，這就限制了高通等公司的銷售，因為與當地競爭對手分享設計有可能被他們竊取知識產權，這就限制了他們的銷售。

But if the Chinese government is going to soften that rule or entirely restrict it, that means that Qualcomm now can sell more of their chips to local companies such as Xiaomi and Huawei, and that was going to boost their profits, which is going to reflect in their stock prices.

但如果中國政府將放寬或完全限制這一規定，這就意味著高通現在可以向小米和華為等本土公司出售更多芯片，這將提高他們的利潤，從而反映在股價上。

In 2024, Starbucks planned to open 800 new stores all across China.

2024 年，星巴克計劃在全中國新開 800 家門店。

But due to local permit requirements, from land use to safety approvals, they only could open around 600, because those approvals take 6 to 12 months to launch a single store.

但由於當地從土地使用到安全審批等方面的許可要求，他們只能開設約 600 家店，因為這些審批需要 6 到 12 個月的時間才能啟動一家店。

But a local competitor, Lakin Coffee, which is favored by the local government, could open 2,500 stores.

但當地的競爭對手拉肯咖啡卻受到了當地政府的青睞，可以開設 2500 家門店。

So softening the rules and making the approvals much easier for the US companies, that could allow Starbucks to open extra 1,000 stores every year in China, and that will add an additional 500 million dollars in profits for the company, which is going to reflect on their stock prices.

是以，放寬規定，讓美國公司更容易獲得準許，可以讓星巴克每年在中國多開 1000 家門店，這將為公司增加 5 億美元的利潤，這將反映在他們的股票價格上。

These are just a few examples of how US companies can profit out of this deal.

這些只是美國公司如何從這筆交易中獲利的幾個例子。

In fact, if you give it a very close look, you'll find out that every US company has an opportunity to profit out of it, but it doesn't mean that all of them are going to  When the two superpowers are quietly changing the rules of the game, those who are paying close attention will find themselves ahead of everyone else.

事實上，如果你仔細觀察，就會發現每家美國公司都有機會從中獲利，但這並不意味著所有公司都會這樣做 當這兩個超級大國正在悄然改變遊戲規則時，那些密切關注的公司會發現自己走在了其他人的前面。

The challenge is of course to know where to look and find out what actually matters in those deals.

當然，我們面臨的挑戰是要知道去哪裡找，並找出這些交易中真正重要的東西。

Of course, it's not enough to simply read the headlines, you have to analyze the companies behind them and find out which of these companies are best positioned to profit out of this deal.

當然，僅僅閱讀標題是不夠的，還必須分析標題背後的公司，找出其中哪些公司最有可能從這筆交易中獲利。

So investing in the right stocks right now means taking advantage of one of the greatest opportunities that is in front of us.

是以，現在投資正確的股票就意味著要抓住我們面前最大的機遇之一。

But according to a survey, most Americans view investing as gambling.

但根據一項調查，大多數美國人認為投資就是賭博。

With over 4000 stocks being traded in the US stock market, it is overwhelming to find the good stock.

美國股市上有 4000 多隻股票在交易，要找到好股票實在是太難了。

But there is always a reason why one stock rises over the other.

但一隻股票的上漲總是有原因的。

And a skilled investor reads the market just like a skilled pilot reads the sky.

熟練的投資者對市場的解讀就像熟練的飛行員對天空的解讀一樣。

He knows that a turbulence is coming before it hits.

在動盪來臨之前，他就已經知道。

So if you want to know how I approach this, which stocks I am following and watching, and which stocks I would bet my money on, you can find out more checking the first link in the description.

是以，如果你想知道我是如何處理這個問題的，我正在跟蹤和關注哪些股票，以及我會在哪些股票上下注，你可以查看說明中的第一個鏈接瞭解更多資訊。

Thanks guys for watching and see you in the next one.