Name: 美國參議院對俄羅斯及其貿易伙伴實施嚴厲制裁的法案草案中有哪些內容？ (What's in a US Senate draft bill to impose stiff sanctions on Russia and its trading partners?)
Uploaded: 2025-06-17T17:32:34.000Z
Duration: 19 min 49 s

Russia is continuing its war against Ukraine.

俄羅斯正在繼續對烏克蘭發動戰爭。

U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened to impose harder sanctions, but seems to be waiting.

美國總統唐納德-特朗普曾威脅要實施更嚴厲的制裁，但似乎還在等待。

In the Senate, there is a draft bill to impose secondary sanctions on Russian energy exports – 500 percent tariffs on countries importing oil, gas, petroleum, and uranium.

在參議院，有一項對俄羅斯能源出口實施二級制裁的法案草案--對進口石油、天然氣、石油和鈾的國家徵收 500% 的關稅。

Our guest is Edward Fishman, a senior research scholar at Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy.

我們的嘉賓是哥倫比亞大學全球能源政策中心的高級研究學者愛德華-菲什曼（Edward Fishman）。

He served as Russia and Europe sanctions lead and as a member of the policy planning staff at the U.S. Department of State during the Obama administration.

在奧巴馬政府期間，他曾擔任美國國務院俄羅斯和歐洲制裁負責人以及政策規劃人員。

To begin with, why do you think is Donald Trump so reluctant to impose harder sanctions against Russia?

首先，您認為唐納德-特朗普為何不願對俄羅斯實施更嚴厲的制裁？

For some reason, Donald Trump has decided that more sanctions on Russia is going to stop Putin from being serious about negotiations.

出於某種原因，唐納德-特朗普認為對俄羅斯實施更多制裁就能阻止普京認真談判。

The thing that I highlight in my foreign affairs article that came out recently is that this is very different from Trump's approach to really every other country.

我在最近發表的外交事務文章中強調的一點是，這與特朗普對待其他國家的態度截然不同。

When it comes to China, he's shown no compunction about imposing tariffs on China at the same time as he's negotiating a trade deal.

在談到中國時，他毫不猶豫地在談判貿易協議的同時對中國徵收關稅。

With respect to Iran, he's been imposing significant sanctions on Iran at the same time that he's pursuing a nuclear deal.

在伊朗問題上，他在尋求達成核協議的同時，也在對伊朗實施重大制裁。

So in virtually every other instance, Trump believes that coercion and diplomacy are compatible.

是以，幾乎在所有其他情況下，特朗普都認為脅迫和外交是相容的。

But for some reason, with respect to Russia, he considers them mutually exclusive.

但出於某種原因，對於俄羅斯，他認為這兩者是相互排斥的。

And I think that that policy so far has not yielded very many results.

我認為，這項政策迄今為止並沒有取得多少成果。

So hopefully he's about to change course.

Let's take a deep dive into your article on the foreign policy that you've just mentioned.

讓我們深入瞭解一下您剛才提到的外交政策方面的文章。

So you are arguing that Donald Trump should learn from the Obama administration.

所以你認為唐納德-特朗普應該向奧巴馬政府學習。

Well, we shall not discuss that he actually doesn't like the Democrats and is very unlikely to take an example from Obama or Biden.

好吧，我們不討論他實際上不喜歡民主黨，也不太可能以奧巴馬或拜登為榜樣。

But anyway, your idea is take Iran sanctions as an example.

但無論如何，你的想法是以制裁伊朗為例。

So I think there are interesting parallels between the situation with respect to Russia's sanctions today and the situation on Iran sanctions in the first year of Obama's presidency.

是以，我認為今天制裁俄羅斯的形勢與奧巴馬就任總統第一年制裁伊朗的形勢之間存在著有趣的相似之處。

Similar to Trump today, Obama, when he came into the White House in 2009, wanted to reach out a hand to Iran, a bitter adversary.

與今天的特朗普相似，奧巴馬在 2009 年入主白宮時，也希望向伊朗這個勁敵伸出援助之手。

But very few people in the American political spectrum believe that Obama's diplomacy would work.

但在美國政治光譜中，很少有人相信奧巴馬的外交策略會奏效。

He spent about the first six to 12 months of his presidency pursuing negotiations with

他在擔任總統的頭六到十二個月裡，一直在與以下各方進行談判

When those negotiations failed, a bipartisan supermajority in Congress, so both Republicans and Democrats, including Obama's own allies, teamed up to pass tougher and tougher sanctions against Iran over the next several years.

當這些談判失敗後，國會兩黨的超級多數，是以共和黨和民主黨，包括奧巴馬自己的盟友，在接下來的幾年裡聯手通過了對伊朗越來越嚴厲的制裁。

These sanctions were really important because they really created a serious threat of secondary sanctions.

這些制裁非常重要，因為它們確實造成了二次制裁的嚴重威脅。

They made it very clear to banks around the world that if they were transacting with Iran, that they would face cutoff from the U.S. financial system.

他們向世界各地的銀行明確表示，如果他們與伊朗進行交易，他們將面臨被美國金融系統切斷業務的風險。

The most important of these sanctions, though, Roman, come in 2011, at the very end of the year, when Congress passes a law that imposes secondary sanctions on anyone that's transacting with the central bank of Iran, paying Iran basically for its oil sales, with the exception that if you reduce your purchases of Iranian oil every six months and only pay money into escrow accounts that can be used for humanitarian trade, then you have an exception from the sanctions.

不過，羅曼，這些制裁中最重要的是在 2011 年，也就是今年年底，美國國會通過了一項法律，對任何與伊朗中央銀行進行交易、向伊朗支付石油銷售款項的人實施二級制裁，但如果你每六個月減少一次對伊朗石油的購買，只將錢存入可用於人道主義貿易的託管賬戶，那麼你就可以免受制裁。

And this was the critical sanction because it drove down Iran's oil sales by about 60% in 18 months, and it locks up almost $100 billion of Iran's oil revenues in overseas escrow accounts.

這是一項至關重要的制裁，因為它使伊朗的石油銷售量在 18 個月內下降了約 60%，並將伊朗近 1 000 億美元的石油收入鎖定在海外代管賬戶中。

So what's your suggestion for the Russia sanctions?

那麼，你對制裁俄羅斯有何建議？

Because as far as I understand, you don't believe that that bill, as we know it, will ever be implemented.

因為據我所知，你不相信我們所知的那項法案會得到實施。

It seems too hard, or it would have too hard an effect on the world economy.

這似乎太難了，或者說對世界經濟的影響太大了。

Yeah, look, I think the Graham-Blumenthal bill is a very welcome enterprise.

是的，聽著，我認為格雷厄姆-布盧門撒爾法案是一項非常受歡迎的事業。

I think the congressmen are doing the right thing in terms of putting pressure on the administration.

我認為議員們向政府施壓的做法是正確的。

But as written, the bill will never be implemented because what it threatens is 500% tariffs on any country that's buying any energy from Russia at all.

但按照目前的規定，該法案將永遠無法實施，因為它威脅要對任何從俄羅斯購買能源的國家徵收 500% 的關稅。

So that would mean that China or India or the European Union, which is still buying liquefied natural gas from Russia, or Japan, which is still buying energy from Russia, would face 500% tariffs by the US if they continued.

是以，這意味著中國、印度或仍在從俄羅斯購買液化天然氣的歐盟，或仍在從俄羅斯購買能源的日本，如果繼續購買，將面臨美國 500% 的關稅。

And to me, that threat is just not credible because we already saw Trump couldn't even sustain 145% tariffs on China for even a few weeks.

在我看來，這種威脅根本不可信，因為我們已經看到，特朗普甚至無法在幾周內維持對中國徵收 145% 的關稅。

So the idea that he's going to impose 500% tariffs on all these countries just doesn't strike me as plausible.

是以，他要對所有這些國家徵收 500% 關稅的想法在我看來並不靠譜。

So I think if this bill were to be passed as written, the likeliest outcome is that

是以，我認為，如果該法案以書面形式獲得通過，最可能的結果是

Trump would simply invoke a national security waiver and not implement that part of the bill.

特朗普只需援引國家安全豁免權，不執行該法案的這一部分。

So what I think is urgent right now is I think it's important for the Trump administration to come to the table with Congress and negotiate something that is more practical and that actually could build significant leverage over Putin.

是以，我認為現在的當務之急是，特朗普政府必須與國會坐到談判桌前，談判一些更實際、更能對普京產生重大影響的問題。

I think you've got to go back and look at that really successful Iran example from 2011 and 2012.

我認為，你必須回頭看看 2011 年和 2012 年伊朗的成功例子。

Just like Russia today, Iran at the time was a major oil exporter.

就像今天的俄羅斯一樣，伊朗當時也是一個主要的石油出口國。

They're selling two and a half million barrels of oil on international markets each day.

他們每天在國際市場上銷售 250 萬桶石油。

And similar to today, there were real fears in Washington that imposing sanctions on Iranian oil could cut oil supplies to the market and lead to a spike in prices and maybe even worsen inflation.

與今天類似，華盛頓也確實擔心，對伊朗石油實施制裁可能會減少市場石油供應，導致價格飆升，甚至可能加劇通貨膨脹。

That has been why, for instance, Joe Biden was so reluctant to impose oil sanctions on

這也是喬-拜登不願對美國實施石油制裁的原因。

What the Iran sanctions did, though, were so intelligent about them.

不過，制裁伊朗所做的一切是如此明智。

One is they didn't tell countries that they had to stop buying Iranian oil completely overnight.

一是他們沒有告訴各國必須在一夜之間完全停止購買伊朗石油。

They said, you just have to bring down your purchases.

And so what this did is it created sort of a glide path in which countries like China and India and Turkey, the same countries right now buying Russian oil, could reduce their purchases of Iranian oil every six months.

是以，這就創造了一種滑行路徑，使中國、印度和土耳其等國家，也就是現在購買俄羅斯石油的國家，可以每六個月減少一次對伊朗石油的購買。

And it sent a signal to other market participants, like shale producers in the United States, to pump more oil to keep the market balanced.

這也向其他市場參與者（如美國的頁岩油生產商）發出了一個信號，即增加石油產量以保持市場平衡。

And then the second part of it, Roman, was that it said that you could only pay for Iranian oil if it goes into these escrow accounts that could only be used for humanitarian transactions.

第二部分，羅曼，是說只有把石油存入只能用於人道主義交易的代管賬戶，才能為伊朗石油付款。

This could easily be applied right now to China, where you could tell Chinese banks that if they're going to pay for Russian oil, they have to pay into a Russian bank account in China, and that the funds can only be released to buy consumer goods from China.

這一點現在就可以很容易地應用到中國，你可以告訴中國的銀行，如果他們要支付俄羅斯的石油，就必須把錢打入俄羅斯在中國的銀行賬戶，而且這些資金只能用於購買中國的消費品。

They can't be released to buy drones or military equipment or any other components that could be used for Putin's war machine.

不能讓他們購買無人機、軍事裝備或任何其他可用於普京戰爭機器的部件。

Let's imagine that your suggestion will be implemented.

讓我們設想一下，您的建議是否會得到實施。

So there will be sanctions, and countries buying Russian energy products will have to reduce the amount, and it will be reviewed every six months.

是以將實施制裁，購買俄羅斯能源產品的國家必須減少數量，並且每六個月進行一次審查。

And then the revenues will stay in those countries.

The money will stay, but Russia can buy some goods there, like medical supplies or food or whatever.

錢會留下來，但俄羅斯可以在那裡購買一些商品，比如醫療用品或食品什麼的。

How do you think China will react, since you've mentioned China?

既然您提到了中國，您認為中國會作何反應？

China is a major buyer of Russian oil and other Russian energy products.

中國是俄羅斯石油和其他能源產品的主要買家。

But also Europe, because Europe is still buying Russian LNG gas.

但也包括歐洲，因為歐洲仍在購買俄羅斯的液化天然氣。

Yeah, I think both China and Europe would comply.

是的，我認為中國和歐洲都會遵守。

Europe is obviously the easier case, because the Europeans already have a goal of cutting themselves off from Russian energy entirely by 2027.

歐洲顯然更容易，因為歐洲人已經制定了在 2027 年之前完全切斷與俄羅斯能源聯繫的目標。

So in some ways, all this regime would do is just give them a further incentive to hit their goals.

是以，從某種程度上說，這一制度所能做的只是進一步激勵他們去實現自己的目標。

China, of course, is the hardest part of this puzzle, because the Chinese are not at all party to the sanctions regime.

當然，中國是這個難題中最難的部分，因為中國根本不是制裁制度的一方。

What I will note is the same was true for the Iran sanctions in 2011-2012, and the Chinese did comply.

我要指出的是，2011-2012 年對伊朗的制裁也是如此，而中國確實遵守了制裁。

And I think there are two reasons for that.

The first is there's a real threat of secondary sanctions.

首先，確實存在二次制裁的威脅。

If Congress is coming and saying that you will be sanctioned unless you comply with these terms, these big Chinese banks actually will have to cut off from the dollar and cut off from the US financial system if they don't comply.

如果美國國會來了，說除非你遵守這些條款，否則你將受到制裁，那麼這些中國大銀行如果不遵守這些條款，實際上將不得不切斷與美元的聯繫，切斷與美國金融體系的聯繫。

And Chinese banks historically have shown very, very serious caution about violating

而中國的銀行歷來都非常、非常謹慎地對待違規行為。

Even today, China relies on the dollar for 70% of its cross-border payments externally.

即使在今天，中國對外跨境支付的 70% 也依賴美元。

So China is still heavily dependent on the dollar.

是以，中國仍然嚴重依賴美元。

The second reason, though, that I think is just as important is Chinese companies would actually have a positive incentive to comply.

不過，我認為同樣重要的第二個原因是，中國公司實際上會有積極的動機來遵守規定。

They would actually not just be a stick, but also a carrot.

實際上，它們不僅是大棒，也是胡蘿蔔。

Because if you think about it, if payments for Russian oil have to stay in China, they can't go anywhere else, that means that every single dollar that Chinese refineries are paying for Russian oil has to be recycled into the Chinese economy.

因為仔細想想，如果為俄羅斯石油支付的款項必須留在中國，不能流向其他任何地方，這就意味著中國煉油廠為俄羅斯石油支付的每一美元都必須回收到中國經濟中。

It has to be used by Russia to buy imports from China.

俄羅斯必須用這筆錢從中國購買進口產品。

So the Chinese will like this, because if anything, it will actually wind up boosting

是以，中國人會喜歡這樣做，因為如果有的話，這實際上會促進

And by the way, the same logic applies to India and Turkey as well.

順便說一句，同樣的邏輯也適用於印度和土耳其。

Do you think that the risks are manageable because the Russian share of oil on the world market is greater than that of Iran?

您認為風險是可控的嗎，因為俄羅斯在世界市場上的石油份額大於伊朗？

I don't want to by any means suggest that this will be easy.

Russia is producing more than twice the amount of oil today than Iran was in the period that

今天，俄羅斯的石油產量是伊朗的兩倍多。

But what I would note today is that back then, oil prices were well above $100 a barrel.

但我今天要指出的是，當時的油價遠高於每桶 100 美元。

We had an incredibly tight oil market in 2011, 2012.

2011 年和 2012 年的石油市場異常緊張。

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美國參議院對俄羅斯及其貿易伙伴實施嚴厲制裁的法案草案中有哪些內容？ (What's in a US Senate draft bill to impose stiff sanctions on Russia and its trading partners?)

significant

tough

determine

pursue