Name: 美國正在犯一個大錯誤，而且比你想象的要嚴重得多 (America is Making a Big Mistake, and It’s Far Worse Than You Expect)
Uploaded: 2025-06-17T16:43:12.000Z
Duration: 14 min 12 s

October 1929, the stock market crashed by 48%.

程度副詞

While the market bounced back slightly after that, the crisis remained very painful for the US economy.

雖然市場在那之後略有反彈，但危機對美國經濟來說仍然非常痛苦。

President Hoover raised the average tariff by 60% on over 20,000 goods that entered the United States in an attempt to protect US industries and prevent the US economy from a collapse.

胡佛總統將進入美國的 2 萬多種商品的平均關稅提高了 60%，試圖保護美國工業，防止美國經濟崩潰。

But that plan backfired because other quickly began to raise their tariffs as well, and trade began to shrunk.

但這一計劃適得其反，因為其他國家很快也開始提高關稅，貿易開始萎縮。

The trade between Europe and the United States dropped by 70%.

歐洲和美國之間的貿易額下降了 70%。

The global trade halted, and the US economy got into a much worse crisis than it was prior to that.

全球貿易停滯，美國經濟陷入了比之前更嚴重的危機。

If it wasn't for tariffs, the United States would got out of the great depression much faster, and it wouldn't have lasted for over 10 years.

如果沒有關稅，美國會更快地走出大蕭條，而大蕭條也不會持續 10 多年。

Tariffs certainly did not create the great depression, but tariffs certainly worsened the situation.

關稅當然不是大蕭條的始作俑者，但關稅肯定會使情況惡化。

While the United States has signed a deal with the UK, and it's about to sign a deal with the second world's largest economy, China, the United States is on a new era, on a new path that is going to be very similar to 1930s, an era of high tariffs.

雖然美國已經與英國簽署了協議，而且即將與世界第二大經濟體中國簽署協議，但美國正處於一個新時代，走上一條與20世紀30年代非常相似的新道路，一個高關稅的時代。

Although the arguments for tariffs are very logical and they make sense to a certain extent, imposing tariffs are going to usher a new era for the United States, and they are going to put the United States on a path of self-destruction.

儘管徵收關稅的理由非常合乎邏輯，在一定程度上也是合理的，但徵收關稅將使美國進入一個新時代，並將使美國走上自我毀滅的道路。

Free trade and eliminating tariffs is what made the United States the most powerful economy in history.

自由貿易和取消關稅使美國成為歷史上最強大的經濟體。

It's the reason why the United States is the largest economy and why the US dollar is the global reserve currency.

這也是美國成為最大經濟體、美元成為全球儲備貨幣的原因。

Even if we remove the reciprocal tariffs, the United States made it clear that the 10% baseline tariff is not going to go anywhere, and that could be the last nail in the coffin in the end of the US dollar to beat the global reserve currency.

即使我們取消互惠關稅，美國也明確表示，10% 的基準關稅是不可能取消的，這可能是美元擊敗全球儲備貨幣的最後一顆釘子。

This is Toyota Camry, one of the best-selling cars in American history.

這就是豐田凱美瑞，美國曆史上最暢銷的汽車之一。

This is the car that you often see in the streets of New York, California, or any other state.

這就是你經常在紐約、加利福尼亞或其他州的街道上看到的汽車。

In fact, you have not seen that car in London or maybe even in any European city.

事實上，你在倫敦，甚至在任何歐洲城市都沒見過這種車。

So why is Toyota is all over the place, while the Malaysian car is barely being seen outside Malaysia?

那麼，為什麼豐田汽車遍佈各地，而馬來西亞汽車在馬來西亞境外卻鮮有人問津呢？

Japan has 0% tariff on most passenger cars, while Malaysia on the other side has a 30% tariff on all the cars that import into Malaysia and extra tariffs on other cars.

日本對大多數乘用車徵收 0% 的關稅，而馬來西亞則對進口到馬來西亞的所有汽車徵收 30% 的關稅，並對其他汽車徵收額外關稅。

You see, an average Japanese adult, goes to a dealership to buy a car, he is presented with multiple options.

你看，一個普通的日本成年人去車行買車，會有多種選擇。

So he sees a BMW, a Ford, and a Toyota, and he starts weighing his options.

於是，他看中了寶馬、福特和豐田，開始權衡自己的選擇。

He wants to get the best deal, the cheapest car for the best possible value.

他想買到最划算的車，買到最物美價廉的車。

And if Toyota wants to undercut Ford, BMW, and Mercedes, then Toyota has to offer a very good quality for a much cheaper price.

如果豐田想壓倒福特、寶馬和奔馳，那麼豐田就必須以更便宜的價格提供非常好的品質。

So the Japanese adult is going to buy a Toyota.

所以，日本成年人要買豐田車。

Now, take this exact example and compare it to a Malaysian counterpart.

現在，請將這個確切的例子與馬來西亞的對應例子進行比較。

When a young adult in Malaysia goes to a dealership to buy a car, he is also presented with the exact same options.

馬來西亞的年輕人去車行買車時，也會遇到完全相同的選擇。

A Ford, a Mercedes, BMW, and a Camry, and a local competitor, which is Proton in this case.

一輛福特、一輛奔馳、一輛寶馬和一輛凱美瑞，以及一個在地競爭對手，在這種情況下就是寶騰。

But because there is a 30% tariff on all cars imported to Malaysia, all other foreign cars are made 30% artificially more expensive, which makes the local car much cheaper.

但是，由於馬來西亞對所有進口汽車徵收 30% 的關稅，所有其他外國汽車的價格都被人為地提高了 30%，這使得在地汽車的價格便宜了很多。

And that means that the local competitor Proton does not have to be efficient in their prices, they don't have to produce better cars, because regardless of what happens, their prices are cheaper than foreign cars because of this tariff, which means that they will continue having sales, which means that they don't have to innovate.

這意味著在地競爭對手寶騰無需提高價格效率，無需生產更好的汽車，因為無論發生什麼，他們的價格都會因為關稅而比外國汽車便宜，這意味著他們將繼續保持銷量，這意味著他們無需創新。

That business model works within the entire Malaysia.

這種商業模式在整個馬來西亞都行得通。

But on the global stage, the Malaysian car is going to lose the competition on Toyota, because Toyota is much more efficient, their prices are much more affordable, and they are much more reliant.

但在全球舞臺上，馬來西亞汽車將在與豐田汽車的競爭中敗下陣來，因為豐田汽車的效率更高，價格更實惠，依賴性更強。

And that's why Toyota Camry is the best-selling car in America, while the Malaysian Proton is not sold anywhere else outside Malaysia, because nobody would choose that car over Toyota Camry.

這就是為什麼豐田凱美瑞是美國最暢銷的汽車，而馬來西亞的寶騰汽車在馬來西亞以外的任何地方都沒有銷售，因為沒有人會選擇這款車而不是豐田凱美瑞。

South Korea, which is a country with almost 0% tariffs on all cars, has some of the best car brands in the world.

韓國是一個幾乎對所有汽車徵收 0% 關稅的國家，擁有世界上最好的汽車品牌。

Kia and Hyundai, you can see them in the streets of America and London and anywhere else.

起亞和現代，你可以在美國、倫敦和其他任何地方的街道上看到它們的身影。

Now compare that to Tata Motors, which is an Indian brand.

現在將其與印度品牌塔塔汽車進行比較。

India is one of the most largest countries in the world and one of the largest economies in the world.

印度是世界上最大的國家之一，也是世界上最大的經濟體之一。

And yet, Tata cars are not seen anywhere else outside India.

然而，在印度以外的任何地方都看不到塔塔汽車。

They cannot even compete with South Korea, because India has almost a 100% tariff on their cars, which makes their local cars incompetitive on the global stage.

他們甚至無法與韓國競爭，因為印度對他們的汽車徵收幾乎 100%的關稅，這使得他們的本土汽車在全球舞臺上沒有競爭力。

So by imposing a 10% tariff on everything that enters the US and reciprocal tariffs on those countries, America is going to make its own industries less competitive on the global stage.

是以，通過對進入美國的所有商品徵收10%的關稅，並對這些國家徵收對等關稅，美國將使本國產業在全球舞臺上的競爭力下降。

Yes, they will continue selling in the American market, but on the global stage, compared to German cars and South Korean cars and Japanese cars, they will start falling behind and they will start losing competition, because they don't have an incentive to be more innovative, they don't have an incentive to lower down their prices, they don't have the incentive to improve their quality, because Japanese cars, German cars, and other cars in the US will artificially be made more expensive with those tariffs.

是的，它們將繼續在美國市場銷售，但在全球舞臺上，與德國汽車、韓國汽車和日本汽車相比，它們將開始落後，開始失去競爭優勢，因為它們沒有動力去提高創新能力，沒有動力去降低價格，沒有動力去提高質量，因為日本汽車、德國汽車和美國的其他汽車都會因為這些關稅而人為地變得更加昂貴。

In the short run, it is going to boost the American car industry, but in the long run, they will start falling behind, and American cars will lose competition to German and Japanese cars even further.

從短期來看，這將促進美國汽車工業的發展，但從長遠來看，他們將開始落後，美國汽車在與德國和日本汽車的競爭中將進一步敗下陣來。

以波音公司和空中客車公司為例。

Boeing is an American company, Airbus is an European company.

波音是一家美國公司，空客是一家歐洲公司。

And Boeing has been losing the competition to Airbus no matter what metric you look at.

而波音公司在與空中客車公司的競爭中，無論從哪個指標來看，都一直處於下風。

Airbus has proven to be much safer than Boeing, at least in recent years, especially with what's with MUX.

事實證明，空客比波音安全得多，至少在最近幾年是這樣，特別是在 MUX 方面。

If given a choice, American airlines will now be choosing Airbus over Boeing, because Airbus proved to be much safer than Boeing.

如果有選擇的話，美國的航空公司現在會選擇空中客車而不是波音，因為事實證明空中客車要比波音安全得多。

But when you are imposing a 10% tariff on everything that enters the US, and that includes Airbus planes, what message does that send to American airlines?

但是，當你對所有進入美國的商品徵收 10%的關稅時，其中包括空客飛機，這向美國航空公司傳遞了什麼資訊？

They will start buying Boeing planes that are less than Airbus, because Airbus planes are much more expensive now.

他們將開始購買比空中客車便宜的波音飛機，因為空中客車飛機現在要貴得多。

In fact, Boeing can even raise their prices slightly to take the best advantage out of these tariffs.

事實上，波音公司甚至可以略微提高價格，以充分利用這些關稅。

What that is going to do to Boeing is that it's not going to incentivize them to improve their planes, make them more safer, make them cheaper, because they can still get orders from American airlines since they are being protected by the 10% tariff and maybe even reciprocal tariffs that are going to be much higher than that.

這將對波音公司造成的影響是，這不會激勵他們改進飛機，使其更安全、更便宜，因為他們仍然可以從美國航空公司獲得訂單，因為他們受到 10%關稅的保護，甚至可能會有比這更高的對等關稅。

Yes, in the United States, their business model is going to keep working.

是的，在美國，他們的商業模式將繼續發揮作用。

American airlines will continue ordering less competitive Boeing planes.

美國航空公司將繼續訂購競爭力較弱的波音飛機。

But on the global stage, people do not judge like that.

但在全球舞臺上，人們不會這樣評判。

They will start buying less expensive, much better, much safer Airbus planes compared to Boeing planes.

與波音飛機相比，他們將開始購買價格更低、性能更好、更安全的空中客車飛機。

While Boeing is going to make some money in the short run, in the long run, it is going to lose the competition on the global stage.

雖然波音公司在短期內會賺到一些錢，但從長遠來看，它將在全球競爭中敗下陣來。

Apply this logic to every other industry.

將這一邏輯應用於其他所有行業。

And in 10 to 15 years from now, American companies are going to start losing competition to European companies and Chinese companies.

10 到 15 年後，美國公司將在與歐洲公司和中國公司的競爭中敗下陣來。

But some people might say, well, there are countries who are protecting their industries by imposing tariffs.

但有些人可能會說，有些國家通過徵收關稅來保護本國的工業。

那就讓他們去傷害自己的產業吧。

Why is the United States should follow their mistakes, especially when the United States is the leader of the free world and leader of capitalism.

為什麼美國要重蹈他們的覆轍，尤其是美國是自由世界的領導者和資本主義的領導者。

Now another argument for tariffs is that, well, other countries are subsidizing their industries which are undercutting prices in the market.

現在，支持關稅的另一個理由是，其他國家正在補貼本國的產業，而這些產業正在壓低市場價格。

Which is why the United States has imposed these tariffs in order to protect American industries.

這就是為什麼美國要徵收這些關稅，以保護美國工業。

Well, let's take that argument and break it down.

好吧，讓我們把這個論點分解一下。

Elon Musk is the richest person in the world with a net worth of almost half a trillion dollars.

埃隆-馬斯克是世界上最富有的人，淨資產近 5 萬億美元。

Because Tesla dominates the EV market in the United States.

因為特斯拉主導著美國的電動汽車市場。

There isn't a single car company that would even come close to Tesla.

沒有一家汽車公司能與特斯拉相提並論。

But if you look at China, Tesla is far behind BYD.

但放眼中國，特斯拉遠遠落後於比亞迪。

And BYD cars are as good as Tesla if not better.

比亞迪汽車與特斯拉不相上下，甚至更好。

And they are sold at the fraction of a price of Tesla.

而且它們的售價只有特斯拉的幾分之一。

And a lot of people in the US are complaining about the quality of cars made by Tesla.

在美國，很多人都在抱怨特斯拉汽車的品質。

Yeah, they are great in some sense because they are electrical, but they cost as much as BMWs and Mercedes.

是的，從某種意義上說，它們很不錯，因為它們是電動的，但它們的價格卻不亞於寶馬和奔馳。

If I am paying as much as Mercedes and BMW, why am I not getting the exact same quality?

如果我花的錢和奔馳、寶馬一樣多，為什麼我得不到完全一樣的品質？

The United States has imposed a 100% tariff on all EVs that enter from China.

美國對所有從中國進口的電動汽車徵收 100%的關稅。

Get rid of this 100% tariff that the United States imposed in order to protect Tesla and other EV manufacturers in the United States, and the US market will be filled with $10,000 EVs that will be imported from China.

取消美國為保護特斯拉和美國其他電動汽車製造商而徵收的100%關稅，美國市場上將充斥著從中國進口的1萬美元電動汽車。

Don't you want a $10,000 EV that is going to be as good as Tesla?

難道你不想要一輛與特斯拉一樣出色的 1 萬美元電動汽車嗎？

But that is going to impact negatively Tesla.

但這將對特斯拉產生負面影響。

Because Tesla will no longer be able to sell their cars at that price.

因為特斯拉將無法再以這個價格銷售汽車。

Either they are going to improve the quality and match the quality of Mercedes and BMW, or they will have to lower down their prices in order to compete with BYD.

要麼提高質量，與奔馳和寶馬相媲美；要麼降低價格，與比亞迪競爭。

But Elon Musk will not be the richest man in the world anymore.

但埃隆-馬斯克將不再是世界首富。

So frankly speaking, it's the tariffs that the United States imposed are protecting Tesla, which is making Elon Musk the richest person in America or in the world.

是以，坦率地說，美國徵收的關稅是在保護特斯拉，而特斯拉正讓埃隆-馬斯克成為美國或世界上最富有的人。

But some people might say, it's not fair because BYDs are being subsidized by the Chinese government.

但有些人可能會說，這不公平，因為比亞迪得到了中國政府的補貼。

Well, imagine for a moment, what does that basically mean?

想象一下，這基本上意味著什麼？

The Chinese government is using Chinese taxpayers in order to subsidize the car that you will buy.

中國政府利用中國納稅人的錢來補貼您將要購買的汽車。

So basically, the Chinese government is taking money from Chinese taxpayers and paying for a portion of the car that you are going to buy.

是以，從根本上說，中國政府從中國納稅人那裡拿錢，為你將要購買的汽車支付一部分費用。

But the government of the United States is saying, no, you are not going to get that cheap car.

但美國政府卻說，不，你們不可能買到那麼便宜的車。

If you are going to get it, you will pay double the price and half of that money is going to go to the government of the United States.

如果你要得到它，你將付出雙倍的代價，其中一半的錢將歸美國政府所有。

Now imagine an alternative scenario, where the US government will keep the 100% tariff.

現在設想另一種情況，美國政府將保留 100%的關稅。

Yes, Tesla will continue to dominate the EV market in the United States, and they will still be profitable.

是的，特斯拉將繼續主導美國的電動汽車市場，而且他們仍將盈利。

But outside the United States, they will be kicked by BYD.

但在美國之外，它們將被比亞迪踢出局。

They have been already overtaken in China.

And recently, they are already losing competition in Europe.

最近，它們在歐洲的競爭中已經敗下陣來。

And BYD is outselling Tesla in the entire European Union, and frankly speaking, probably across the entire world.

在整個歐盟，比亞迪的銷量超過了特斯拉，坦率地說，可能還超過了整個世界。

America is making a huge mistake by imposing a 10% baseline tariff.

美國徵收 10%的基準關稅是一個巨大的錯誤。

And reciprocal tariffs are going to make the entire situation much worse than it is right now.

對等關稅會使整個局勢比現在更糟。

They might raise some in the short run for the government, but in the long run, the damage to American companies is irreparable.

短期內，這些措施可能會為政府帶來一些收益，但從長遠來看，對美國公司造成的損失是無法彌補的。