Name: 自動駕駛汽車的兩種截然相反的未來 (The Two Opposite Futures of Self-Driving Cars)
Uploaded: 2025-05-30T01:57:55.000Z
Duration: 12 min 24 s

過去簡單式

So, a couple weeks ago, I clicked on this video that just blew my mind.

幾周前，我點擊了這段視頻，它讓我大吃一驚。

to 不定詞

即將開始我的第一次無人駕駛之旅

Okay, this guy's name is Kyle, and he's calling for a ride.

Kyle is the CEO of the company that makes these cars, but this isn't just some private company demo.

凱爾是製造這些汽車的公司的首席執行官，但這並不是什麼私人公司的演示。

Dozens of people across San Francisco are calling for rides and finding nobody else inside.

舊金山各地有數十人呼叫搭車，卻發現車內空無一人。

I'll admit, you know I'm an optimist, but I was getting a little bit cynical about self-driving cars.

我承認，你知道我是個樂觀主義者，但我對自動駕駛汽車有點憤世嫉俗。

Like, it does feel like every few years they say that self-driving cars will be here in another few years.

就像每隔幾年他們就會說自動駕駛汽車再過幾年就會出現一樣。

But after watching this video, I wondered, are they finally here?

但看完這段視頻後，我在想，他們終於來了嗎？

So I took a deep dive into that question over the past few months.

是以，在過去幾個月裡，我深入研究了這個問題。

Not just into driverless taxis, but also all of the other driverless stuff that I'd heard about, trying to piece together the big picture here.

我不僅研究無人駕駛計程車，還研究我聽說過的其他無人駕駛技術，試圖拼湊出一幅全景圖。

I actually ended up in San Francisco interviewing Kyle himself.

實際上，我在舊金山採訪了凱爾本人。

It's very clear that this is something different.

The answer that I found to whether self-driving cars are actually here is yes.

對於自動駕駛汽車是否真的到來，我找到的答案是肯定的。

They just don't look like what I thought.

It's not that single go-anywhere sci-fi version.

它不是那種隨處可見的科幻版。

It's actually two very different approaches, two competing ideas of what the near future of self-driving might look like, fighting it out on the road.

這實際上是兩種截然不同的方法，是對不遠的將來自動駕駛技術的兩種相互競爭的想法，它們在道路上展開了激烈的較量。

And our lives are about to look very different, depending on who wins.

而我們的生活將截然不同，這取決於誰能獲勝。

I live in New York, but all of those self-driving cars, they're in San Francisco, so that's where I've gotta go.

我住在紐約，但那些自動駕駛汽車都在舊金山，所以我得去那裡。

This conversation isn't about some binary switch from us driving cars to cars just driving themselves.

這場對話並不是關於從我們駕駛汽車到汽車自動駕駛的二元轉換。

It's more like this, a long road from one to the other with a lot of messy middle.

更像是這樣，從一個到另一個的路很長，中間有很多亂七八糟的東西。

And we've been driving down this road for decades.

Back in the mid-1900s, we got basic cruise control, where you could set a speed.

早在 20 世紀中期，我們就有了基本的巡航控制系統，可以設定車速。

And in the early 2000s, we got help from our cars in key moments, like emergency braking.

本世紀初，我們在緊急制動等關鍵時刻得到了汽車的幫助。

And then we got more continuous support, like lane centering or adaptive cruise control.

然後，我們還獲得了更多的持續支持，比如車道居中或自適應巡航控制。

It would match the car in front of you, right?

它會與你前面的車相匹配，對嗎？

And as we got farther down this road, we started to see where we were headed more clearly.

隨著我們在這條路上越走越遠，我們開始更清楚地看到我們的方向。

And we began to categorize the journey into levels of self-drivingness.

我們開始將旅程劃分為不同的自駕級別。

These are the levels you might hear about today.

這些是您今天可能會聽到的級別。

Level two is newer, like highway piloting systems.

第二級比較新，比如高速公路駕駛系統。

This is where we are now with the limit of most cars we can easily buy.

這就是我們現在能輕易買到的大多數汽車的極限。

With all of the levels that we've gotten to so far, humans are still very much in charge.

到目前為止，我們已經達到的所有級別中，人類在很大程度上仍然是主宰者。

但隨著我們的地位越來越高，也許就沒那麼重要了。

The idea is that we'd first just be monitoring the car, and then it would be fully in charge, but only in certain situations or areas.

我們的想法是，我們先對汽車進行監控，然後由它全權負責，但僅限於某些情況或區域。

And then the last level would be cars in charge anywhere, anytime.

最後一個層次是隨時隨地掌管汽車。

I knew that we were here, and that lots of companies were working hard on these.

我知道我們就在這裡，而且很多公司都在努力開發這些產品。

But those self-driving taxis, the ones that are already picking people up, they're here.

但那些自動駕駛計程車，那些已經在接人的計程車，它們已經來了。

Now that you know the levels and where we are now, here's the really key thing to understand about where we're headed.

現在，您已經知道了我們現在的水準和所處的位置，下面就是我們要了解的真正關鍵所在。

A lot of the headlines that I see are about the effort to get to that last sci-fi level.

我看到的很多頭條新聞都是關於為達到最後一個科幻級別所做的努力。

Like, I don't know how long level five is gonna take, but a lot of the predictions kind of seem like bullshit.

我不知道第五級需要多長時間，但很多預測看起來都是扯淡。

Instead, the interesting fight right now is actually just within the level we're already on.

相反，現在有趣的戰鬥其實就在我們已經身處的這個層面上。

Full self-driving, but within constraints.

完全自動駕駛，但有限制條件。

For example, training vehicles to drive anywhere that doesn't have too much complexity, like just on highways.

例如，訓練車輛在任何不太複雜的地方（如高速公路）行駛。

Or in more complex areas, but they have to be trained there.

或者在更復雜的領域，但他們必須在那裡接受培訓。

You can't just drop them into a new city.

你不能把他們扔到一個新城市。

In other words, the fight for the future of self-driving isn't just happening this way.

換句話說，未來的自動駕駛之爭並不只是這樣發生的。

And that's the fight I want to talk about.

I'm about to go interview the CEO of Cruise, and I'm gonna take a not-self-driving car to get there because it's really hard to get into one of those self-driving cars.

我馬上要去採訪 Cruise 公司的首席執行官，我將乘坐一輛非自動駕駛汽車去那裡，因為要進入一輛自動駕駛汽車真的很難。

The company I'm going to visit, Cruise, is an example of one of the two big visions for how to use self-driving cars within our current level.

我將要參觀的 Cruise 公司，就是在我們目前的水準上如何使用自動駕駛汽車的兩大願景之一的一個例子。

To understand these visions, you have to understand the two big divides within the big picture of self-driving cars.

要理解這些願景，就必須瞭解自動駕駛汽車大背景下的兩大分歧。

不那麼複雜的情況，但在任何地方？

Or more complex, but geographically constrained?

或者更復雜，但受地理條件限制？

不同的公司正在各自開展工作。

I know I introduced him as just like this guy, but Kyle is a really big deal.

我知道我介紹他的時候說他就像這個人，但凱爾真的是個大人物。

I've seen the video of you getting into the driverless car on the public street for the first time.

我看過你第一次在公共街道上坐進無人駕駛汽車的視頻。

That was the first time, and so I was pretty nervous.

那是第一次，所以我非常緊張。

What have you learned from the results of that test so far?

到目前為止，您從測試結果中學到了什麼？

The things we're learning are all the weird nuances between humans and machines that we take for granted.

我們正在學習的東西是人類和機器之間所有奇怪的細微差別，而這些細微差別被我們認為是理所當然的。

Do you want to tell me what's the most interesting?

So sometimes people use this service to come home from restaurants or even bars.

是以，有時人們會利用這項服務從餐館甚至酒吧回家。

Maybe you have a few drinks and that makes you sleepy, and so we've had multiple people fall asleep.

也許你喝了幾杯酒就會犯困，所以我們已經有多人睡著了。

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自動駕駛汽車的兩種截然相反的未來 (The Two Opposite Futures of Self-Driving Cars)

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