You're taking people who are not 12 years old, un-teach them their incentive structures, their reward structures, everything that they did to get to the point of being smart enough, good enough, talented enough to get a job with you.

你把那些還不到 12 歲的孩子們帶入你的公司，不教他們激勵結構、獎勵結構，不教他們為了足夠聰明、足夠優秀、足夠有才華而在你這裡找到工作所做的一切。

Now forget everything you've learned.

現在，忘掉你學到的一切吧。

You're going to try something new.

你要嘗試新的東西。

That must be the single hardest thing you have to deal with.

這一定是你必須面對的最困難的事情。

Exactly right.

完全正確。

You are one of the high priests of being human is hard.

你是 "做人很難 "的大祭司之一。

Managing our psychology is hard.

管理我們的心理很難。

Everything we're talking about, it's not the technology.

我們所說的一切，都與技術無關。

Yeah.

是啊

It's the personal stuff.

這是個人問題。

It's working on ourselves and practicing a set of habits that are really easy to describe, but are very hard to practice because they're not what's encouraged in the rest of the world.

這是對自己的鍛鍊，也是對一套習慣的實踐，這些習慣說起來簡單，但實踐起來卻非常困難，因為它們並不是世界上其他地方所鼓勵的。

Astro, I'm a huge fan of yours.

阿童木，我是你的超級粉絲。

So the, the fact that you're here and we're doing this together is just sheer joy and thrill for me.

所以，你在這裡，我們一起做這件事，對我來說就是純粹的快樂和激動。

You do what are affectionately known in the rest of the world as moonshots.

你們所做的事情在世界上其他地方被親切地稱為 "登月"。

The organization formerly known as Google X, now X not to be confused with formerly known as Twitter X, two different organizations, but Google

該組織前身為 Google X，現在的 X 不要與前身為 Twitter X 的組織混淆，這是兩個不同的組織，但 Google

X used to be the secret lab at Google where they would attempt to do what are known as moonshots, which is crazy outlandish ideas that only a company with the resources and brainpower of Google could do, were you there from the very beginning?

X 曾經是谷歌的祕密實驗室，他們會在那裡嘗試進行所謂的 "登月計劃"，也就是隻有谷歌這樣資源豐富、人才濟濟的公司才能做到的瘋狂離奇的想法，你從一開始就在那裡嗎？

I was.

我曾經是

So what happened was that the founders of Google were thinking about what became Google X, even for several years before it existed, they recruited someone whose name was Sebastian Thrun to run the place as they were starting to get it up and running.

於是，谷歌的創始人在谷歌 X 出現之前的幾年裡，就開始考慮如何將其發展成為谷歌 X，他們招募了一個名叫塞巴斯蒂安-特倫（Sebastian Thrun）的人來管理這個地方。

This was almost 15 years ago now.

這幾乎是 15 年前的事了。

And they asked him if he wanted a co-founder, he and I had known each other for a long time and had been looking for an opportunity to work together.

他們問他是否想成為聯合創始人，他和我認識很久了，一直在尋找合作的機會。

I was running a hedge fund in San Francisco at the time, and Sebastian came and asked me, would you like to come do this thing?

當時我在舊金山經營一家對沖基金，塞巴斯蒂安來問我，你願意來做這件事嗎？

And I said, no, because I was really dedicated to my investors.

我說，不，因為我對我的投資者真的很盡心。

And then he came and asked me again.

然後他又來問我。

And so I went to my board of directors and I said, okay, I'm going to say no again, but before I do, I just want to hear that you're all as serious, but what we're doing is I am.

於是我去找我的董事會，我說，好吧，我要再次拒絕，但在拒絕之前，我只想聽聽你們的意見，你們都是認真的，但我們正在做的是我認真的。

And they said, what are you crazy Astro?

他們說，你瘋了嗎，阿童木？

Go do that.

去吧

We got this covered.

我們能搞定

Like, so I made my CTO at that hedge fund, the CEO, and I came and helped start Google X.

於是，我讓我在對沖基金的首席技術官兼首席執行官來幫助創辦谷歌X。

Okay.

好的

So now, now let's get into the real nitty gritty.

現在，讓我們進入真正的細枝末節。

Thank you for that.

謝謝你。

But here, let's get into the real nitty gritty because I think what every company writes on its fake values list that's written on the wall.

但在這裡，讓我們進入真正的細枝末節，因為我認為每家公司在其虛假價值觀清單上所寫的內容都是寫在牆上的。

And I say fake because, you know, I know exactly what you mean.

我說 "假 "是因為，你知道，我完全明白你的意思。

It's just a list of stuff on a wall, but they all have innovation, right?

這只是牆上的一張清單，但它們都有創新，不是嗎？

Which I think is funny because every company thinks they're innovative, but most companies are not.

我覺得這很有趣，因為每家公司都認為自己很有創新精神，但大多數公司都不是。

And even companies that say we, even the companies that are, that are driving to innovation, the innovations that they're thinking of are, I think, fair to say, even if they're a good, small in comparison to the stuff that you're doing over at X and have always done just so that people understand some of the size of the thinking that's happening there.

即使是那些說我們正在推動創新的公司，他們所考慮的創新，我認為，公平地說，即使是很好的創新，與你在 X 公司所做的事情相比，也是很小的，而且一直在做，只是為了讓人們瞭解那裡正在發生的一些思考的規模。

Just to, just so we can contextualize it, give a couple of the brands that have spun off that people might know that came out of, that came out of this brilliant lab.

為了讓我們能更好地理解這一點，請列舉幾個人們可能知道的、從這個出色的實驗室衍生出來的品牌。

Sure.

當然。

So some ones that people may be familiar with Google brain, which started at X was the, arguably the original epicenter of what is now this modern day explosion of deep learning.

人們可能對谷歌大腦並不陌生，它始於 X 公司，可以說是現代深度學習爆炸式發展的最初中心。

And it was the first place where really large networks were industrialized.

這也是第一個真正實現大型網絡工業化的地方。

Essentially.

從本質上講

So a year or two after we did that, it was going so well.

就這樣，我們做了一兩年後，一切都很順利。

In that particular case, we chose to move Google brain back to Google.

在這種特殊情況下，我們選擇將谷歌大腦移回谷歌。

We decided that was the best way to harvest the value that was coming from that thing.

我們決定，這是收穫該產品價值的最佳方式。

Let me use one or two examples to show you the breadth.

讓我舉一兩個例子來說明其廣泛性。

Yeah.

是啊

We started something which internally was called chauffeur a long time ago.

很早以前，我們就開始了一項內部稱為 "司機 "的工作。

It was our exploration into self-driving cars.

這是我們對自動駕駛汽車的探索。

That project has grown up.

該項目已經成長起來。

It's graduated from X.

它已經從 X 畢業了。

It's now a standalone business inside the alphabet family called Waymo.

它現在是字母表家族中的一個獨立業務，名為 Waymo。

And so if you go to San Francisco, now you can get a ride from Waymo cars and it's a transportation as a service experience, there's just no one sitting in the front seat and you don't even need to be whitelisted, you just download the app, order a car.

是以，如果你去舊金山，現在你可以搭乘 Waymo 汽車，這是一種運輸即服務的體驗，前座上沒有人，你甚至不需要白名單，只需下載應用程序，訂購一輛汽車。

It appears, it takes you around.

它會出現，帶你四處轉轉。

I think for listeners of yours who've tried it before, it's really exciting for the first four or five minutes.

我想，對於以前試過的聽眾來說，前四五分鐘真的很刺激。

And then it's boring.

然後就沒意思了。

And that's awesome.

這真是太棒了。

I've had friends who've taken Waymo's in San Francisco and I was like, what's it like as if it's the first time on a plane and they're all like, yeah, whatever.

我有朋友在舊金山乘坐過 Waymo 的飛機，我就問他們，這是第一次坐飛機，感覺怎麼樣？

It's a, it's a, it's an Uber without a driver.

這是一個，這是一個，這是一個沒有司機的 Uber。

And that is the highest compliment that I can imagine.

這是我能想象到的最高讚美。

Cause inside of Waymo over this 14 year arc, we had to first solve all the safety problems.

因為在 Waymo 內部，在這 14 年的時間裡，我們必須首先解決所有的安全問題。

But then we had to solve like, Hey, let's make sure we don't make the driver inside seasick now that it's safe for people outside the car.

但後來我們不得不解決這樣的問題：嘿，既然車外的人已經安全了，我們就得確保不會讓車內的駕駛員暈船。

And then there were all these like third order effects, like the body language of the car.

然後還有一些三階效應，比如汽車的肢體語言。

We don't realize that little things that we do when we're driving signal to people like, Hey, I'm going to merge now.

我們沒有意識到，我們開車時做的一些小事，都在向別人發出信號，比如：嘿，我要併線了。

No, really like leave me some space.

不，給我留點空間

All of these things, it turns out we have to get good at like, where are you going to drop someone off when they're, you know, they're arriving somewhere.

所有這些事情，原來我們必須得到很好的像，你要去哪裡下車的人，當他們，你知道，他們到達的地方。

There's so many things.

有很多事情。

It's sort of an AI hard problem.

這是一個人工智能難題。

It's been an incredible ride.

這是一次不可思議的旅程。

And the fact that it's boring is the largest compliment we could ever get.

而 "無聊 "是對我們最大的褒獎。

I never thought about that.

我從沒想過這個問題。

But so of course that wasn't on the list of problems to solve till we were actually out in the world.

當然，這並不在我們要解決的問題清單上，直到我們真正走向世界。

And people are saying, that's what, this is the thing we really care about.

人們說，這就是我們真正關心的事情。

Okay, great to know.

好的，很高興知道。

And then we can go solve that.

然後我們就可以去解決這個問題了。

Now, everybody wishes they were more innovative.

現在，每個人都希望自己更有創新精神。

And, and I think leaders everywhere are trying to quote unquote, get their people to be more innovative.

而且，我認為世界各地的領導者都在努力讓他們的員工更具創新精神。

What have you learned after 15 years at being at X that, that you didn't know before, but is part of the real formula?

在 X 公司工作 15 年後，你學到了什麼以前不知道，但卻是真正公式的一部分？

Like, is it, is it how you hire?

比如，你是如何招聘的？

Is it, is it the culture?

是因為文化嗎？

Like, what is it specifically that you do that lets people dream big, but also like know how to make that stuff?

比如，你的工作是什麼，既能讓人們實現遠大夢想，又能讓他們知道如何製作這些東西？

Like, how do you, how do you get innovation out of people?

比如，你怎樣才能讓人們創新？

So let me take a step back and make sure that we're all like on the same page about what we're trying to do.

所以，請允許我退一步，確保我們大家對我們要做的事情的想法是一致的。

So that when I describe how we're trying to do it, it makes sense.

這樣，當我描述我們是如何努力做到這一點時，就能說得通了。

So what we call a moonshot has three basic parts.

是以，我們所說的 "登月計劃 "有三個基本部分。

Number one, there has to be a huge problem in the world that you want to solve that you want to make go away.

首先，世界上必須有一個你想解決、想讓它消失的巨大問題。

Number two, there has to be some kind of science fiction sounding product or service that you're proposing that we would make that however unlikely it is you, we could actually make it, get it to work, get it to be cheap enough, whatever.

第二，必須有某種聽起來像科幻小說的產品或服務，而你提出的這種產品或服務，無論你覺得可能性有多小，我們都能真正做出來，讓它發揮作用，讓它足夠便宜，等等。

If we could make it, we can agree.

如果我們能做到，我們就能達成一致。

It would probably make that problem with the world go away.

這可能會讓世界的問題消失。

Yeah.

是啊

And then you have to have a proposal of some breakthrough technology for how we can take at least a run at making that thing.

然後，你還必須提出一些突破性技術的建議，讓我們至少有機會製造出這種東西。

That's sort of at least an order of magnitude better than the solutions that are currently out there.

這比目前的解決方案至少好一個數量級。

If you have those three things, we would call that a moonshot story hypothesis.

如果你具備這三點，我們就稱之為 "登月故事假設"。

You're probably wrong, but it's cool by itself.

你可能錯了，但它本身很酷。

Once you get to that stage, then the question is how fast, how cheaply can we verify that you're wrong so we can get onto the next thing?

一旦到了這個階段，問題就是我們能以多快的速度、多低的成本來證實你是錯的，從而進入下一個階段？

Cause in the early days, they all sound crazy.

因為在早期，他們聽起來都很瘋狂。

We can't pre-pick which ones are the right ones.

我們無法預先選擇哪些是正確的。

So the best we can do is just be better than other people at filtering the ideas.

是以，我們所能做的就是比別人更好地過濾想法。

That's what we try really hard to be good at.

這就是我們努力要做好的事情。

And so if you, Simon worked at X and you come up with the teleportation proposal and you have like, Hey, I think I have a way of making teleportation work, and here's this crazy idea.

如果你，西蒙，在X公司工作 你提出了遠程傳送的建議 你就會說，嘿，我想我有辦法讓遠程傳送成功 這個想法很瘋狂

If we can try it, but it's going to take four years and $10 million before we find out if we're on the right track, nope, not interested, but if you say, Hey, crazy idea, here's how great it would be for the world if it worked.

如果我們可以試一試，但要花上四年時間和一千萬美元才能知道我們是否走對了路，那就沒興趣，但如果你說，嘿，這個想法很瘋狂，如果成功了，對世界有多大好處。

I know that it's probably not going to work, but I think we can learn something for a few tens of thousands of dollars in the next month or two.

我知道這很可能行不通，但我認為在接下來的一兩個月裡，我們可以用幾萬美元學到一些東西。

Oh yeah.

哦，是的。

You've got our attention.

你引起了我們的注意。

I don't care how unlikely it is.

我不在乎可能性有多小。

If we can learn for that cheap and that fast.

如果我們能學得這麼便宜、這麼快的話。

So that's the game we're playing is churning through ideas, throwing most of them away for good reasons with evidence.

所以，我們現在玩的遊戲就是不斷地提出各種想法，然後有理有據地拋棄其中的大部分。

And so the most fundamental thing we're doing is playing the long game and trying to have really high amounts of audacity.

是以，我們要做的最基本的事情就是玩長期遊戲，並努力做到膽大心細。

So we're willing to go on these unlikely journeys, but then with equally high levels of humility, knowing right from the beginning that it's probably not going to work and being able to be sanguine enough about it, that we can be proud of going on the journey and then proud of turning off the journey when it turns out it's not the right journey instead of resisting that reality or going through a long grieving process when it turns out not to be the right thing to do.

是以，我們願意踏上這些不可能的旅程，但同時也懷著同樣高度的謙卑，從一開始就知道這很可能行不通，並能對此保持足夠的樂觀，以至於我們可以為踏上旅程而感到自豪，也可以在發現這不是正確的旅程時為放棄旅程而感到自豪，而不是在發現這不是正確的事情時抵制現實或經歷漫長的悲傷過程。

And so all of the cultural work at X is about trying to help people get from this sort of gambler's mentality of innovation over into this card counting mentality of innovation, where we can feel together as a community, supporting each other in this process where we are passionate about being dispassionate.

是以，X 公司的所有文化工作都是為了幫助人們從這種賭徒式的創新心態轉變為這種算牌式的創新心態，在這個過程中，我們可以感受到作為一個群體的團結，相互支持，在這個過程中，我們熱情而又冷靜。

We pursue each of these ideas, hoping it will work, but also realistic that most of them won't and hungry to discover where we're wrong.

我們追求每一個想法，希望它能奏效，但也現實地認識到大多數想法都不會奏效，我們渴望發現自己錯在哪裡。

This is a big deal and it's worth repeating.

這是一件大事，值得反覆強調。

And you said it, which is moving from a gambler's mentality to a card counting mentality, which I think is a great way of putting it.

你說過，要從賭徒心態轉變為算牌心態，我認為這是一個很好的說法。

Most innovation, especially in big companies, happens where somebody comes up with ideas or a group of people come up with ideas, some executive who has to sign off on it, wants the ROI, wants to know what the bet is.

大多數創新，尤其是大公司的創新，都是某個人或一群人想出點子，某個高管簽字同意，想要投資回報率，想知道賭注是什麼。

Maybe there's a couple and they pick what they think is going to be the best bet.

也許有一對夫婦，他們會選擇他們認為最合適的人選。

And if it fails, it probably takes too long.

如果失敗了，那可能是時間太長了。

They write it off and then they repeat that, that system.

他們將其一筆勾銷，然後又重複這個系統。

And it doesn't produce high quantities of great innovation.

它也不會產生大量偉大的創新。

And as you said, you might hit it now and then, but it is a gambling.

正如你所說，你可能會偶爾擊中它，但這是一種賭博。

It was a little bit of luck or a lot of luck that it worked in the first place.

當初能成功，是運氣好，還是運氣不好？

Exactly.

沒錯。

Whereas what you're doing is you're creating a mentality of, of trying, not just evaluating on paper and taking bets.

而你所做的，是創造一種嘗試的心態，而不只是紙上評估和下注。

And you're allowing the reality of, is this possible or not to dictate if we go forwards or not?

你是否允許 "這是否可能 "這一現實來決定我們是否前進？

So egos kind of aren't really involved.

是以，這並不涉及自我。

You don't really have camps being pitted against each other that my idea is better than your idea because the data will prove whether it's viable or not.

你不會真的讓陣營之間互相攻擊，說我的想法比你的想法好，因為數據會證明它是否可行。

And I assume that it makes people much more cooperative that you're all trying to help each other, make your ideas work because nobody's going to be rewarded because you're not gamblers.

我想這也會讓大家更加合作，因為你們都想互相幫助，讓自己的想法行得通，因為沒有人會因為你們不是賭徒而得到回報。

What you described is our aspirational state.

你所描述的就是我們的理想狀態。

The actual work that's going on here.

這裡正在進行的實際工作。

And you've spent time here at the moonshot factory.

你在月球工廠待過。

So, you know, what I'm talking about is trying to get our way step by step towards that aspiration because you're right.

所以，你知道，我所說的是努力一步步實現我們的願望，因為你說得對。

And it sounds great.

聽起來很不錯。

It's really hard for us to do because that's not what the rest of the world has encouraged us to be like since we were six years old, the rest of the world, if I say, I don't know what the answer is to your question, or I say your idea is better than mine.

這對我們來說真的很難做到，因為從我們六歲開始，世界上的其他人就鼓勵我們要這樣，如果我說，我不知道你的問題的答案是什麼，或者我說你的想法比我的好，世界上的其他人就不會這樣鼓勵我們。

And we can all agree abstractly that that's the right way for us to be in that the best innovation factory would have those kinds of characteristics.

我們都可以抽象地同意，這才是我們應該走的正確道路，最好的創新工廠應該具備這些特點。

But that is not how you jack up your career in almost all of the world.

但是，在幾乎所有的世界上，這都不是你提升事業的方式。

So getting the culture to reinforce all of these pieces that are aligned with the audacity, with the humility, with taking long time horizons, part of the problem is we train particularly engineers, but arguably other traits, other skills, too, if you're making version 17 of some satellite, I'm sure you know what you're doing.

是以，讓企業文化強化所有這些與膽識、謙遜、長遠眼光相一致的部分，部分問題在於我們培養的尤其是工程師，但也可以說是其他特質、其他技能，如果你正在製作某個衛星的第 17 版，我相信你知道自己在做什麼。

And so you just want to be left alone for two years so you can make the next version and you can pretty much predict what's going to make the next version better.

是以，你只想靜靜地待上兩年，這樣你就可以製作下一個版本，而且你幾乎可以預測到什麼會讓下一個版本變得更好。

And it's going to be incremental.

這將是一個漸進的過程。

It's not going to be radically better.

不會有根本性的改善。

If we're shooting over the horizon, the temptation is there in all of us to say, give me enough people, enough money, enough time and leave me alone.

如果我們在地平線上射擊，我們每個人都會受到誘惑，說：給我足夠的人，足夠的錢，足夠的時間，讓我一個人待著吧。

Let me build it right.

讓我把它建好。

The first time I get that temptation, the smarter people are, the more that temptation is, is high in us.

我第一次受到這種誘惑，越是聰明的人，這種誘惑就越大，在我們心中的地位就越高。

But when we're shooting over the horizon, you don't even know if you're going in the right direction.

但當我們在地平線上射擊時，你甚至不知道方向是否正確。

So how fast you head there is like, not the question.

所以，你以多快的速度趕往那裡並不是問題。

It's like being able to work the sextant that's important, not how fast you row in your boat.

就像六分儀的操作能力才是最重要的，而不是你在船上劃得有多快。

So what I love about this is, I mean, so I know that we call moonshots moonshots because, you know, we always like, we could put a man on the moon, but we can't dot, dot, dot.

所以，我喜歡的是，我的意思是，我知道我們把 "登月計劃 "稱為 "月球計劃"，因為，你知道，我們總是喜歡，我們可以把人送上月球，但我們不能點、點、點。

Like, I get it.

比如，我明白了。

It's like that we landed somebody on the moon in 1969, 1969 for heaven's sakes.

就像我們在 1969 年讓人登上月球一樣，1969 年，看在上帝的份上。

But the fact that we landed a man on the moon in 1969 is one of, it is the great things to point to of, of human ingenuity, um, uh, that we use as a, as a point of reference, but your description, and though that's true, it's your description of those three characteristics that define how X, uh, goes about pursuing ideas.

但是，1969 年人類登上月球的事實是人類智慧的偉大之處之一，嗯，嗯，我們把它作為一個參考點，但你的描述，雖然這是事實，但你對這三個特徵的描述才是 X 如何追求想法的定義。

It's, it seems to mirror exactly what they did back, back in the sixties when Kennedy challenged everybody, which was, it had to be for some greater good.

這似乎與六十年代肯尼迪挑戰所有人時的做法如出一轍，必須是為了某種更大的利益。

And in his speech, his, his, his man to the moon speech, he says, you know, in order to serve mankind, in order to do something great to, to advance the human race forwards, he literally talks about why we're doing this, the audacity that we're going to put a person on the moon and bring them back again safely.