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  • Translator: Joseph Geni Reviewer: Morton Bast

    Chris Anderson(作家,以長尾理論著名) 詢問我是否可以將過去25年來

  • Chris Anderson asked me if I could put the last 25 years

    對抗貧窮的運動濃縮成10分鐘的TED講座。

  • of anti-poverty campaigning into 10 minutes for TED.

    一個英國人竟然要求一個愛爾蘭人長話短說。

  • That's an Englishman asking an Irishman to be succinct.

    (笑聲)

  • (Laughter)

    我說 : " Chris啊,除非有奇蹟發生 。"

  • I said, "Chris, that would take a miracle."

    他說 : " BONO,這不是一個展現你彌賽亞情結的好時機嗎? "

  • He said, "Bono, wouldn't that be a good use of your messianic complex?"

    所以,我來了。

  • So, yeah.

    然後我又想,讓我們把涵蓋的時空超越25年吧。

  • Then I thought, let's go even further than 25 years.

    讓我們回到基督誕生以前,也就是三千年以前,

  • Let's go back before Christ, three millennia,

    回到那個,我心目中正義的腳步

  • to a time when, at least in my head, the journey for justice,

    和對抗不公平及貧困的正要啟程的時代。

  • the march against inequality and poverty really began.

    三千年以前,

  • Three thousand years ago,

    文明正要開始在尼羅河畔孕育,

  • civilization just getting started on the banks of the Nile,

    某些奴隸,以猶太裔的牧羊人為例,

  • some slaves, Jewish shepherds in this instance,

    我想他們渾身都是羊糞的味道吧,

  • smelling of sheep shit, I guess,

    對著坐在至高王位上的法老宣稱 :

  • proclaimed to the Pharaoh, sitting high on his throne,

    ‘ 吾皇,我們的地位是和你一樣的 ’

  • "We, your majesty-ness, are equal to you."

    然後法老回說 " 喔,你們錯了 "

  • And the Pharaoh replies, "Oh, no.

    "你,你們這些可悲的下人,一定是在開玩笑吧。"

  • You, your miserableness, have got to be kidding."

    然後他們就說了 " 不!不! 根據我們的聖書所說,

  • And they say, "No, no, that's what it says here

    事實就是如此。 "

  • in our holy book."

    場景切到我們這個世紀,同一個國家,同一個金字塔,

  • Cut to our century, same country, same pyramids,

    不同的人們正在散播同樣關於平等的思想

  • another people spreading the same idea

    而這次根據的是不同的書。

  • of equality with a different book.

    這一次的書,叫做臉書。

  • This time it's called the Facebook.

    群眾聚集在解放廣場上,

  • Crowds are gathered in Tahrir Square.

    他們將虛擬的社交網路轉化為實際的行動,

  • They turn a social network from virtual to actual,

    這好像是在為21世紀重開機一樣。

  • and kind of rebooted the 21st century.

    先不說前陣子的阿拉伯之春過後,

  • Not to undersell how messy and ugly

    我們低估了接踵而來的混亂和醜陋,

  • the aftermath of the Arab Spring has been,

    更不用說我們高估了科技在其中扮演的角色,

  • neither to oversell the role of technology,

    但這些事給了我們希望,

  • but these things have given a sense of what's possible

    當老邁的金字塔權力體系,

  • when the age-old model of power, the pyramid,

    由上而下反轉過來,把人民拉到塔頂,

  • gets turned upside down, putting the people on top

    然後現代法老們被丟到底端去。

  • and the pharaohs of today on the bottom, as it were.

    這同時也告訴我們,像資訊以及傳播

  • It's also shown us that something as powerful

    這樣強而有力的東西,可以挑戰不平等的體制。

  • as information and the sharing of it can challenge inequality,

    因為"真相",就像人民,

  • because facts, like people,

    都希望不受拘束,而當他們不受到限制時,

  • want to be free, and when they're free,

    目光所及之處,皆是自由,

  • liberty is usually around the corner,

    就連最窮的窮人也是如此。

  • even for the poorest of the poor --

    真相可以對犬儒主義

  • facts that can challenge cynicism

    和冷漠所導致的惰性提出質疑,

  • and the apathy that leads to inertia,

    真相告訴我們什麼是可行的,而且

  • facts that tell us what's working and,

    更重要的是,什麼是不可行的,所以我們可以去修正它,

  • more importantly, what's not, so we can fix it,

    如果我們傾聽並關心真相時,它是有助於我們

  • facts that if we hear them and heed them could help us

    去應對納尓遜·曼德拉 (前南非總統)在2005年

  • meet the challenge that Nelson Mandela made

    所提出的挑戰。

  • back in 2005,

    當他請求我們成為一個偉大的世代,

  • when he asked us to be that great generation

    去糾正人類最糟糕的錯誤,

  • that overcomes that most awful offense to humanity,

    也就是極端的貧窮,

  • extreme poverty,

    真相建立了一個強而有力的態勢。

  • facts that build a powerful momentum.

    所以我就想,忘了搖滾歌劇吧

  • So I thought, forget the rock opera,

    忘了我過去所發下的豪語吧。

  • forget the bombast, my usual tricks.

    真相,是現今唯一能放聲歌唱的,

  • The only thing singing today would be the facts,

    因為我被內心的純真環繞著。

  • for I have truly embraced by inner nerd.

    自此,我已不再是搖滾巨星。

  • So exit the rock star.

    我轉變成以證據為基礎的社會運動份子,也就是真相運動者。

  • Enter the evidence-based activist, the factivist.

    因為真相告訴我們的

  • Because what the facts are telling us

    是那又長又慢的路程,

  • is that the long, slow journey,

    人類通往平等那又長又慢的路程,

  • humanity's long, slow journey of equality,

    實際上正在加快腳步。

  • is actually speeding up.

    看看我們已經達成了什麼。

  • Look at what's been achieved.

    看看這組資料所展現的圖片。

  • Look at the pictures these data sets print.

    自從公元2000年以來,自從這個千禧年以來,

  • Since the year 2000, since the turn of the millennium,

    世界上多了八百萬個接受高效抗逆轉錄病毒療法

  • there are eight million more AIDS patients

    的愛滋病患者。

  • getting life-saving antiretroviral drugs.

    瘧疾 : 在非洲撒哈拉南邊八個國家

  • Malaria: There are eight countries in sub-Saharan Africa

    的死亡率已經下降了75%。

  • that have their death rates cut by 75 percent.

    五歲以下的小孩死亡人數,五歲以下的小孩,

  • For kids under five, child mortality, kids under five,

    每年的數目已下降了265萬人次。

  • it's down by 2.65 million a year.

    這代表每天有7,256個幼童被拯救。

  • That's a rate of 7,256 children's lives saved each day.

    (掌聲)

  • Wow. Wow. (Applause)

    讓我們先暫停一下,說真的,然後想一想

  • Let's just stop for a second, actually, and think about that.

    在過去的一週以來,你有在任何地方看到任何事,

  • Have you read anything anywhere in the last week

    它的重要性能沾上這個數字的邊的嗎?

  • that is remotely as important as that number? Wow.

    這是天大的好消息。讓我抓狂的是

  • Great news. It drives me nuts

    絕大多數的人似乎不知道這個消息。

  • that most people don't seem to know this news.

    每天有超過七千個小孩存活。這裡是其中的兩位。

  • Seven thousand kids a day. Here's two of them.

    這是Michael 和 Benedicta,

  • This is Michael and Benedicta,

    他們能活下來的主要原因,

  • and they're alive thanks in large part

    要感謝醫生 Patricia Asamoah ,她真的很了不起,

  • to Dr. Patricia Asamoah -- she's amazing --

    還有Global Fund, 你們全都資助過它,

  • and the Global Fund, which all of you financially support,

    不論是有意還是無意。

  • whether you know it or not.

    Global Fund 提供了抗逆轉錄病毒的藥,

  • And the Global Fund provides antiretroviral drugs

    這可以阻止擁有HIV的母親把病毒傳給小孩。

  • that stop mothers from passing HIV to their kids.

    這樣神奇的事不是無來由的自己發生的,

  • This fantastic news didn't happen by itself.

    它是被爭取來的,它是社會運動的訴求,

  • It was fought for, it was campaigned for,

    它是科技創新的目的。

  • it was innovated for.

    而這個好消息催生了更多的好消息,

  • And this great news gives birth to even more great news,

    因為歷史的潮流是如此的。

  • because the historic trend is this.

    生活在那勞筋苦骨、心力交瘁

  • The number of people living in back-breaking,

    的極端貧窮的人數已經下降了,

  • soul-crushing extreme poverty has declined

    從1990年佔全球人口的百分之43,

  • from 43 percent of the world's population in 1990

    到2000年的百分之33,

  • to 33 percent by 2000

    再到2010年的百分之21。

  • and then to 21 percent by 2010.

    掌聲鼓勵一下

  • Give it up for that. (Applause)

    只剩一半,只剩一半。

  • Halved. Halved.

    現今,這比率還是徧高,還是有太多的人

  • Now, the rate is still too high -- still too many people

    不必要的喪失了他們的生命。

  • unnecessarily losing their lives.

    還有許多工作要去完成。

  • There's still work to do.

    但這是令人心碎。令人刻骨銘心的事。

  • But it's heart-stopping. It's mind-blowing stuff.

    如果你每天生活的總花費少於1.25美金,

  • And if you live on less than $1.25 a day,

    如果你生活在那樣貧困的環境,

  • if you live in that kind of poverty,

    這就不只單單是一個數據而已。

  • this is not just data.

    這是你生命的所有。

  • This is everything.

    如果你是那種想要把最好的都留給孩子的父母,而我也是其中一員

  • If you're a parent who wants the best for your kids -- and I am --

    那這項快速的過渡時期是將絕望帶往希望的道路

  • this rapid transition is a route out of despair and into hope.

    猜猜看,如果這條道路繼續延伸下去,

  • And guess what? If the trajectory continues,

    那麼那些每天生活費只有1.25美金的人

  • look where the amount of people living on $1.25 a day

    到2030年會變成多少呢?

  • gets to by 2030.

    這不可能吧?可能嗎? (簡報顯示為零)

  • Can't be true, can it?

    這是數據告訴我們的。如果這條道路有持續走下去的話

  • That's what the data is telling us. If the trajectory continues,

    我們會達到,哇,零的區域。

  • we get to, wow, the zero zone.

    對於像我們這樣的數據統計人員來說,

  • For number-crunchers like us,

    這是非常性感的區域,

  • that is the erogenous zone,

    現在來說,這樣子的整理數據

  • and it's fair to say that I am, by now,

    讓我的性慾都被激起了。

  • sexually aroused by the collating of data.

    所以虛擬的消除這些生活費在每天1.25美元以下

  • So virtual elimination of extreme poverty,

    極端貧窮的人,

  • as defined by people living on less than $1.25 a day,

    是有被調整過的,理所當然的,是從1990為基準線的通貨膨脹所致。

  • adjusted, of course, for inflation from a 1990 baseline.

    我們當然喜歡基準線

  • We do love a good baseline.

    多麼的驚人

  • That's amazing.

    現在,我知道你們其中一些人覺得這樣的進展

  • Now I know that some of you think this progress

    只發生在亞洲或拉丁美洲

  • is all in Asia or Latin America or

    或模範(model)國家像是巴西,

  • model countries like Brazil --

    而有誰不喜歡巴西的模特兒(model)呢?

  • and who doesn't love a Brazilian model? --

    但看看非洲薩哈拉南邊。

  • but look at sub-Saharan Africa.

    這裡有10個一系列的國家,某些人稱呼它們為獅子群,

  • There's a collection of 10 countries, some call them the lions,

    它們在過去的十年來得到了

  • who in the last decade have had a combination

    加起來是百分之百的債務取消,

  • of 100 percent debt cancellation,

    獲得三倍的援助,和增加十倍的FDI

  • a tripling of aid, a tenfold increase in FDI --

    也就是境外直接投資。

  • that's foreign direct investment --

    這讓國內的資源,也就是當地貨幣,翻了兩翻。

  • which has unlocked a quadrupling of domestic resources -- that's local money --

    當它們被妥善運用時,也就是良好的管理,

  • which, when spent wisely -- that's good governance --

    讓小孩的死亡率減少了三分之一,

  • cut childhood mortality by a third,

    學業完成率也增加了變成兩倍,

  • doubled education completion rates,

    他們同時也將極端貧窮人口減半了。

  • and they, too, halved extreme poverty,

    而在這樣的速率下,這十個國家也將到達零的領域。

  • and at this rate, these 10 get to zero too.

    這些獅子的驕傲

  • So the pride of lions

    就是這概念最好的佐證。

  • is the proof of concept.

    而這樣子會有各式各樣的好處。

  • There are all kinds of benefits to this.

    我來舉個例子,你們再也不用

  • For a start, you won't have to listen

    去理會一個像學耶穌跳躍且難以忍受的人,也就是本人我。

  • to an insufferable little jumped-up Jesus like myself.

    這樣如何? (掌聲)

  • How about that? (Applause)

    那2028,2030年呢? 它們很快就會來了。

  • And 2028, 2030? It's just around the corner.

    我的意思是,那大概是再三次的滾石樂團再見演唱會之後。

  • I mean, it's about three Rolling Stones farewell concerts away.

    (笑聲) 我希望。我也這麼希望。

  • (Laughter) I hope. I'm hoping.

    這會讓我們看起來都很年輕。

  • Makes us look really young.

    那為什麼我們並沒有很興奮地期待這件事呢?

  • So why aren't we jumping up and down about this?

    這麼說好了,機會是存在的,但危機也潛藏在之中。

  • Well, the opportunity is real, but so is the jeopardy.

    我們在承認可以做到這件事之前,

  • We can't get this done until we really accept

    我們無法完成這件事。

  • that we can get this done.

    看看這個圖表。

  • Look at this graph.

    這叫做惰性。這就是我們如何搞砸這件事的。

  • It's called inertia. It's how we screw it up.

    而下一個東西真的很美妙

  • And the next one is really beautiful.

    它叫做態勢。

  • It's called momentum.

    這是讓我們能夠扭轉歷史

  • And it's how we can bend the arc of history

    使它朝向零的領域的原因。

  • down towards zero,

    只要去做那些我們知道有效的事就行了。

  • just doing the things that we know work.

    惰性對抗態勢。

  • So inertia versus momentum.

    其中潛藏著危機,當然,

  • There is jeopardy, and of course,

    你靠得越近舊傷得越重。

  • the closer you get, it gets harder.

    我們知道目前阻擋在我們前面的阻礙,

  • We know the obstacles that are in our way

    而這是艱難的時刻。

  • right now, in difficult times.

    事實上,你們國家的首都,正處於艱難的時刻,

  • In fact, today in your capital, in difficult times,

    其中某些看管國家金庫的人,

  • some who mind the nation's purse want to cut

    想要刪減像是Global Fund這樣拯救生命的計畫。