Name: 房地產市場到底發生了什麼事？！ (WTF Just Happened To The Housing Market?!)
Uploaded: 2026-03-25T21:37:25.000Z
Duration: 16 min 6 s

For the first time in almost 20 years, the housing market has started to fall.

將近 20 年來，房地產市場第一次開始下跌。

47 out of the top 50 cities are getting weaker, listing prices are now lower than they were in 2024, and

前 50 個城市中有 47 個正在走弱，掛牌價格比 2024 年還要低，而且

over the last few weeks, searches for "can't sell a house" and "help with mortgage" just hit an all-time record high.

過去幾週，「賣不掉房子」和「抵押貸款求助」的搜尋量創下歷史新高。

Now, seriously, if you don't believe me, home sellers are now outnumbering home buyers by more than 600,000.

說實話，如果你不相信我，現在房屋賣家比購房者多出 60 萬人以上。

Mortgage rates are quickly going back up,

and the average home is now taking the longest time to sell in over a decade.

平均一間房子現在賣出的時間是十多年來最長的。

That's why we need to talk about exactly what's happening throughout the entire housing market, how higher interest rates are completely destroying demand across the country, where prices are headed throughout the rest of the year, and

這就是為什麼我們要好好聊聊整個房地產市場到底發生了什麼事，高利率是如何徹底摧毀全國的需求，以及價格在今年剩下時間的走向，還有

then finally my own thoughts about what's going on.

最後是我自己對於現況的看法。

Because real talk, this is exactly the type of market where some of the best deals could be made, if you know what to look for.

說實話，這正是那種如果你知道該找什麼，就能做出最划算交易的市場。

Although before we start, if you appreciate videos like this where we just cover the facts and I literally cite every single source in the pinned comment of this video, it would mean the world to me if you hit the like button or subscribe if you haven't done that already.

不過在我們開始之前，如果你喜歡這種只講事實、我會在影片的置頂留言裡引用所有來源的影片，請幫我按讚或訂閱，這對我意義重大。

I know it's annoying for me to ask all the time,

but it costs you $0 down and as a thank you for doing that, here's a picture of a snail.

但這對你來說是零成本，而且作為感謝，這裡有一張蝸牛的照片。

also a big thank you to Rocket Money for sponsoring this video, but more on that later.

另外也要非常感謝 Rocket Money 贊助這支影片，但之後再詳談。

All right, now in terms of where we currently stand, I've got to say the numbers are pretty wild.

好了，就目前我們的情況來說，我得說這些數字真的很驚人。

所以我們先從 2026 年的價格開始。

First of all, it's important to realize that any time you see one of these dramatic headlines about the housing market, most of the data is already outdated by the time you see it.

首先，很重要的一點是，任何時候你看到關於房地產市場的戲劇性標題，大部分的數據在你看到的時候都已經過時了。

For example, the headlines today are often based on deals that were agreed to weeks or even months ago under completely different conditions than what buyers and sellers are currently facing.

舉例來說，今天的頭條新聞通常是基於幾週甚至幾個月前達成的交易，當時的條件跟買家和賣家目前面臨的狀況完全不同。

Like, you might see that home prices were up 0.3% from a year ago,

像是，你可能會看到房屋價格比一年前上漲了 0.3%，

but that data was pulled in December and doesn't take into account rising mortgage rates, price cuts, and

但這些數據是在十二月擷取的，並沒有考慮到抵押貸款利率的上升、降價，以及

Because those are the signals that actually tell you where the housing market is headed.

因為這些才是真正能告訴你房地產市場走向的訊號。

And when it comes to that, as of right now, mortgage rates are back to their highest level in three months.

說實話，就目前情況來看，抵押貸款利率回到了三個月來的最高點。

37% of home builders are dropping their price by an average of 6%,

37% 的房屋建造商正在降價，平均降幅為 6%，

and as a result, homes are taking the longest to sell in over a decade.

結果就是，房屋銷售時間創下十多年來最長紀錄。

Of course, it's important to mention that not all markets are created equal.

當然，很重要的一點是，並非所有市場都一樣。

Because while sellers are panicking in places like Miami, where there's 197% more sellers than buyers, or Austin at 124%, other areas are seeing the exact opposite.

因為雖然像邁阿密（賣家比買家多 197%）或奧斯汀（多 124%）等地的賣家正在恐慌，但其他地區卻出現了完全相反的情況。

Cities like Milwaukee and Newark still have more buyers than sellers, pushing prices higher.

像密爾瓦基和紐華克這些城市，購房者還是比賣家多，推升了房價。

So the real question is, why is that happening?

所以真正的問題是，為什麼會這樣呢？

Well, home prices are currently growing the fastest where they're the most affordable compared to incomes.

嗯，目前房價漲得最快的地方，是相對於收入來說最負擔得起的區域。

And when you could still buy a house throughout the Upper East Coast for around $400,000, it's going to attract a lot more people to the point where prices creep up.

而且當你發現上東岸的房子還能以大約 40 萬美元買到時，這自然會吸引更多人，房價也會隨之悄悄上漲。

Although in terms of the largest increase to home prices in 2026, it's probably not what you're expecting,

雖然就 2026 年房價最大的漲幅而言，可能跟你預期的不一樣，

So here's the thing, even though oil prices seem completely unrelated to the housing market, in reality there's a lot more of a connection than most people think.

事情是這樣的，即使油價看起來跟房地產市場完全沒關係，但實際上，它的關聯性比大多數人想像的還要大。

For example, when oil is pushed above $100 a barrel and people pay more than $5 for a gallon of gas, investors demand higher returns on long-term bonds, which pushes up the yield of the 10-year Treasury, and

例如，當油價漲破每桶 100 美元，汽油一加侖要價超過 5 美元時，投資人會要求長期債券有更高的報酬，這會推升 10 年期國債的殖利率，

mortgage rates rise right alongside with it.

This is why today the market has begun to price in the chance of a rate hike occurring as soon as April.

這就是為什麼今天市場已經開始預期，最快可能在四月就會升息。

And if this happens, affordability is fi all right, to put this into perspective, a 1% increase in mortgage rates generally reduces a buyer's purchasing power by 10%.

如果真的這樣，購房能力就全完了。打個比方，抵押貸款利率每增加 1%，購房者的購買力通常就會減少 10%。

So a $500,000 home at 6% would have the same affordability as a $450,000 home at 7%, suggesting that the higher mortgage rates go, the more home prices will need to fall to balance it out.

所以，一棟 6% 利率的 50 萬美元房屋，其購房能力相當於一棟 7% 利率的 45 萬美元房屋。這表明，抵押貸款利率越高，房價就越需要下跌來平衡。

But that's still not the entire picture, because there's one more impact of higher oil prices,

但這還不是全部，因為油價上漲還有另一個影響，

Like, to give you an idea of how severe this is, aluminum is up 39% over the last year, steel is up 20%.

舉個例子，鋁價在過去一年上漲了 39%，鋼價上漲了 20%，就知道情況有多嚴重了。

And that cost doesn't just get absorbed by the builder, it gets passed on to the buyer.

而這個成本不會只由房屋建造商吸收，它會轉嫁給購房者。

Look, all of that is to say that higher oil prices immediately affect home affordability.

總之，這一切都說明瞭油價上漲會直接影響購房能力。

And when that happens, we see two outcomes.

當這種情況發生時，我們會看到兩種結果。

One, buyers wind up paying more for a home due to higher rates during a time where affordability is already impacted, or two, prices have to come down accordingly to compensate.

第一種是，購房者在購房能力已經受影響的情況下，因為利率上升而支付更高的房價；或者第二種是，房價必須隨之下降來彌補。

And if you want to hear something crazy, this is where the math gets absurd.

如果你想聽個瘋狂的，這就是數學變得荒謬的地方。

At today's 6.25% mortgage rate, buying the median-priced home of $398,000 with 20% down is going to give you a monthly payment of $1,954 a month before property taxes, insurance, maintenance, repairs, which is probably another $500 to $800 a month on top of that.

以目前 6.25% 的抵押貸款利率來看，購買中位價 398,000 美元的房屋，頭期款 20%，每個月的還款金額是 1,954 美元，這還不包含房產稅、保險、維護和修繕費用，這些加起來可能還要多 500 到 800 美元。

But in order to qualify for that home, you need to make $106,000 a year, which means the average American family is already $23,000 short.

但要符合購房資格，你每年需要賺 106,000 美元，這表示一般的美國家庭已經短少了 23,000 美元。

That's why if we see a 25 basis point increase in mortgage rates, which to put things simply is just one quarter of 1%, an additional 1.4 million potential buyers would be priced out of the market immediately.

這就是為什麼，如果我們看到抵押貸款利率上升 25 個基點，簡單來說就是 0.25%，會有額外 140 萬潛在的購房者會立即被市場淘汰。

And this gets actually way worse when you look at the income requirements.

當你看到收入要求時，情況會變得更糟。

When rates were at 4.22%, you'd need to make $67,000 a year to qualify.

利率是 4.22% 的時候，你每年需要賺 67,000 美元才能符合資格。

At 5.22%, you'd need to make $75,000 a year.

22% 的時候，你每年需要賺 75,000 美元。

At today's rate of 6.22%, that's $84,000 a year.

以今天的 6.22% 利率來看，就是每年 84,000 美元。

And at 7.22%, you'd need to make $93,000 a year.

而 7.22% 的話，你每年需要賺 93,000 美元。

This is also the reason that home prices don't just instantly fall.

這也是為什麼房價不會瞬間下跌的原因。

取而代之的是，房屋賣家乾脆不賣了。

市場交易量減少，整個市場就僵住了，

and we don't really notice the cracks forming until it's too late.

而我們往往要等到太遲了，才會注意到裂痕正在形成。

So in terms of what's expected to happen over the next year, which markets are most impacted, and

所以，關於接下來一年預期會發生什麼事、哪些市場受到的影響最大，

my own thoughts about what's going on, you're going to want to hear this.

以及我對目前情況的看法，你絕對會想聽聽看。

Although before we go into that, I've got to say the people who wind up getting the best opportunities at the biggest discounts are usually the ones who get really good at one thing,

不過在我們深入探討之前，我必須說，那些最終能獲得最大折扣和最好機會的人，通常是那些在某件事上做得非常出色的人，

and that would be tracking your expenses.

Recently I went through my subscriptions and canceled anything I haven't used in the last few months.

最近我檢視了我的訂閱項目，取消了過去幾個月沒用到的東西。

So with maybe 10 minutes' worth of work, I was able to save about $100 a month.

只花了大概 10 分鐘的時間，我就省下了每月約 100 美元。

And one of the ways that I was able to do this so quickly is with our sponsor, Rocket Money.

而我之所以能這麼快做到這一點，其中一個方法就是透過我們的贊助商 Rocket Money。

For those unaware, Rocket Money is a personal finance app that allows you to cancel unwanted subscriptions, track your spending across accounts,

對於還不知道的朋友，Rocket Money 是一款個人理財 App，讓你取消不想要的訂閱項目，追蹤你所有帳戶的花費，

and build a budget that actually works all in one place.

並在同一個地方建立一個真正有效的預算。

Plus, what makes them so unique is that they don't just show you the numbers, they actually help you save,

此外，讓他們如此獨特的地方是，他們不只顯示數字，還能實際幫助你省錢，

For example, when I connect my accounts, it's automatically able to pull all of my recurring charges into one simple list.

舉例來說，當我連結我的帳戶時，它就能自動將我所有的定期扣款匯整成一個簡單的清單。

From there I was able to see charges that I've completely forgotten about.

從那裡我看到了我完全忘記的扣款項目。

And instead of tracking them down myself one by one, I was able to handle everything from within the app in just a couple taps.

而且不用我自己一個一個去追蹤，我只要在 App 裡動動手指，就能一次搞定。

And if you want to potentially save even more, Rocket Money could help you lower your bills from cable to phone to internet and more.

如果你想省下更多錢，Rocket Money 可以幫你降低有線電視、電話、網路等帳單。

So instead of spending time on hold or bouncing back and forth with customer service, you could have their team work on your behalf to try to lower the rate for you.

所以，與其花時間在電話線上等待，或跟客服來回溝通，你可以讓他們的團隊為你爭取更低的費率。

This is why Rocket Money has helped save its customers up to $740 a year when you use all of the app's premium features.

這也是為什麼 Rocket Money 透過使用 App 的所有進階功能，已幫助客戶每年省下高達 740 美元。

And they've also saved customers up to $880 million in canceled subscriptions.

而且他們也為客戶取消了高達 8.8 億美元的訂閱服務。

So if you want to take control of your finances, just head to rocketmoney.com/graham to try it out for free and unlock even more features with premium.

所以如果你想掌控你的財務，就到 rocketmoney.com/graham 免費試用，並透過 premium 解鎖更多功能。

Or the link is down below in the description.

Again, that is rocketmoney.com/graham with the link down below.

再次強調，網址是 rocketmoney.com/graham，連結就在下方。

Thank you so much, and now let's get back to the video.

非常感謝，現在讓我們回到影片。

All right, so in terms of the housing market, which areas are impacted the most,

好的，關於房地產市場，哪些地區受到的影響最大，

and what this means for the rest of the year, let's discuss the absolute boogeyman of home prices,

以及這對今年接下來的影響，讓我們來談談房屋價格的頭號大敵，

所以，大多數人搞錯的地方在這裡。

They just see the headline number, read that median prices have increased another 0.3% over the last year,

他們只看到頭條數字，讀到中位數價格在過去一年又上漲了 0.3%，

and think, "Oh, this proves that home prices only keep going higher." Except when you account for inflation of 2.4%, that home didn't actually get more expensive.

然後就覺得，「喔，這證明瞭房價只會一直漲。」但如果你把 2.4% 的通貨膨脹算進去，房子其實並沒有變貴。

Instead, it lost 2.1% in terms of purchasing power,

事實上，以購買力來說，它還貶值了 2.1%，

and that is what's now becoming incredibly common throughout the United States.

而這現在正變得在美國各地非常普遍。

To put that in context, for the first time in years, wages growing at 3% to 4% in 2026 is actually outpacing home price growth, and

說到這個，在 2026 年，幾年來首次出現了薪資成長 3% 到 4% 竟然超過了房價漲幅，

the difference between what you earn and what a home costs is finally beginning to narrow.

而且你賺的錢和你買房的成本之間的差距，終於開始縮小了。

Now, in terms of what economists call this, it's a real-terms correction.

現在，經濟學家稱之為「實質購買力修正」。

And so far it's the healthiest way for an overpriced market to normalize.

到目前為止，這是房價過高的市場正常化的最健康方式。

Like, instead of a dramatic 30% crash that wipes out decades of equity, home prices just trade sideways while incomes begin to improve.

就像，與其來個戲劇性的 30% 大跌，讓你幾十年的資產瞬間蒸發，不如房價持平，同時收入開始改善。

No one panics, no one's forced to sell, it just flatlines while incomes gradually improve.

沒有人恐慌，沒有人被迫賣房，它只是持平，同時收入逐漸改善。