Name: 聯合航空CEO談「需求、油價和TSA排隊」！ (United Airlines CEO on Demand, Oil Prices and TSA Lines)
Uploaded: 2026-03-25T21:37:28.000Z
Duration: 10 min 18 s
Description: 【看影片學英語】數萬部 YouTube 影片，搭配英漢字典即點即查，輕鬆掌握單字發音與用法，長久累積看電影不必再看字幕。

I am here in Los Angeles with the CEO of United Airlines, Scott Kirby.

我現在在 Los Angeles，身邊是 United Airlines 的執行長 Scott Kirby。

There is an incredible airline behind us, there are incredible exhibits here.

我們身後有很棒的航空公司，這裡也有很棒的展覽。

過去簡單式

We would be talking about all these new planes that United just bought,

我們本來要聊聊 United 剛買的這些新飛機，

but instead the world has sent some other things.

但沒想到世界送來了別的東西。

I really want to start with this question of how you plan for the future, with a backdrop that is probably the most uncertain for airlines in particular since COVID.

我真的很想從這個問題開始，在一個對航空公司來說，大概是自 COVID 以來最不確定的背景下，你們是如何規劃未來的？

Well, thanks for having me, Lisa, and I love the United blue, but.

謝謝妳邀請我，Lisa，我很喜歡 United 的藍色，但是。

You know, really the way we plan is being prepared in advance.

其實，我們規劃的方式就是事先做好準備。

And when we came out of COVID, I made a commitment to our employees.

當我們從 COVID 走出來時，我對我們的員工做了一個承諾。

I was going to do everything possible to put United in a position where we never again furlough employees, which has happened over decades multiple times at United.

我會盡一切努力，讓 United 處於一個永遠不會再讓員工休無薪假的狀態，這在 United 過去幾十年裡發生了好幾次。

And to do that, we knew there was some industry crisis to come.

我們知道要做到這一點，產業裡一定會有危機出現。

I didn't know what it was that would eventually come,

but we're carrying triple the cash on the balance sheet that we had pre-COVID.

但我們現在手上的現金是 COVID 之前的兩倍。

We've moved to the top of the industry in terms of margins,

我們的獲利能力已經位居產業之冠，

and we have the best credit rating that we've had in over 30 years.

而且我們的信用評級是 30 多年來最好的。

And what that does is give us the financial resources to look to the other side of the crisis, to continue investing in airplanes like this, to continue a full-speed investing in the future while we make tactical adjustments in the short term,

這樣做能給我們財務資源，讓我們能度過危機，繼續投資像這樣的飛機，在短期做出戰術調整的同時，全速投資未來，

but have the financial resources that we can look through the crisis to the recovery on the other side.

並擁有財務資源，讓我們能看穿危機，迎接另一邊的復甦。

Last week we heard from American, we heard from Delta.

上週我們聽了 American 和 Delta 的說法。

They were talking about even upgrading their forecasts for the year, saying that consumer demand was so strong it could overcome whatever short-term shock this is.

他們甚至在談論上調今年的預測，表示消費者需求非常強勁，足以克服任何短期的衝擊。

Why do you think it's not going to be that short-term and not that moderate?

你為什麼認為這不會是短期的，也不會那麼溫和？

So first, I have to say I say exactly the same thing about demand.

所以首先，我必須說，我對需求的看法完全一樣。

The top ten booking weeks of the year have all been in 2026 so far.

今年預訂量最高的前十週，到目前為止都落在 2026 年。

So demand is incredibly strong right now.

But I do think that oil prices are I think they're higher for longer.

但我認為油價會是「高價更久」。

It's reasonable for us to plan for that regardless, because the downside is pretty limited.

無論如何，我們為此做規劃是合理的，因為潛在的下行風險相當有限。

We leave a little bit of demand on the table by not flying quite as much this summer.

我們今年夏天沒有飛那麼多班次，等於是讓了一些需求流失。

But it gives us more optionality on the other side for the recovery.

但這讓我們在復甦的另一端有更多選擇。

And so we're really focused on what the recovery is going to look like.

所以我們非常專注於復甦會是什麼樣子。

And I think our forecast of oil going to 175 and staying through up to 100 through the end of next year is reasonable.

我認為我們預測油價會漲到 175，並在明年底前維持在 100 以上是合理的。

I hope it's better, and there's a good chance it's better.

我希望會更好，而且很有可能變得更好。

And planning and preparing for that really lets us come out stronger as we go through it and on the other side.

規劃和準備這些，真的能讓我們在經歷過程中和結束後變得更強大。

You've talked about how you're cutting about 5% of capacity, in particular in the Middle East and some of the routes there, in order to reduce capacity, preserve margins.

你提到你們正在削減約 5% 的產能，特別是在中東和一些航線上，以減少產能、維持利潤。

Or if prices go even higher, do you expect that to actually be an even bigger cut to capacity?

如果油價再漲，你們預期這會造成更大的減產嗎？

We'll watch and see what happens, particularly with demand.

我們會持續觀察，看看會發生什麼事，特別是需求方面。

If our forecast of fuel prices is correct, then my guess is there's going to be an impact to the economy as well.

如果我們對油價的預測是準確的，那我想這也會對經濟產生影響。

And I hope not, but we'll watch that as it goes along.

我希望不會，但我們會持續關注事態發展。

But what we're doing right now really is taking out flying that is pretty marginal, even in good times.

但我們現在做的，其實是取消一些即使在景氣好的時候，利潤也很微薄的班機。

And when oil prices double, it would lose money.

而且油價翻倍的話，就會虧錢。

And so there's just no point in flying flights that are going to lose money that can't cover the cost of fuel.

所以飛那些會虧錢、無法負擔燃料成本的班機，真的沒有意義。

We'll be nimble and see what happens with prices and demand.

我們會保持彈性，觀察油價和需求的變化。

The Middle East has been an area of expansion for a while.

I know that a number of the airlines have really been moving heavily into the region.

我知道有些航空公司確實大力進軍這個區域。

Are you adjusting any of your thinking longer term as a result of the conflict and potentially how long it could go on?

你會因為這場衝突以及它可能持續多久，而調整任何長期的想法嗎？

But I would guess that when this is over, that places like Dubai come back 100%.

但我猜測，等這一切結束後，像杜拜這樣的地方會百分之百回來。

But I would bet on Dubai for the long term.

Going forward, you've talked about how you want to take advantage of this time, how you see this as a crisis not unlike what we saw during the pandemic,

展望未來，你曾談到想如何利用這段時間，你認為這是一場危機，跟我們在疫情期間看到的不一樣，

and that you'd be even interested in potentially picking up some assets.

而且你甚至有興趣可能收購一些資產。

So first, I don't think it's a crisis like COVID, but it's going to be a stress event.

所以首先，我不認為這是像 COVID 那樣的危機，但它會是一場壓力事件。

That's the word I use more, is stress event for the industry if our fuel forecast is right.

我比較常說的是，如果我們的燃料預測準確，這對產業來說會是一場壓力事件。

But it's nowhere near the magnitude of what happened in COVID.

但這跟 COVID 發生時的規模完全不能比。

And in a stress event like that, I want us to be we start in the strongest position.

在這種壓力事件下，我希望我們能處於最強勢的地位開始。

I want us to be consistently ahead of the curve.

Every time there's something happening, I want us to be first, let everyone else follow.

每次有什麼事情發生，我都希望我們是第一個，讓其他人跟隨。

And if we when we're doing that, you know, it's and others take longer to adjust, it is going to amp up the stress on them.

當我們這樣做的時候，你知道，如果其他人需要更長時間來調整，這會加劇他們的壓力。

Many of them start with weak income statements, weak balance sheets.

他們很多人一開始的損益表、資產負債表就很弱。

And we'll be there to pick up some of those assets,

而且我們也會在那裡接手一些資產，

But we'll be there to pick up some of those assets as we go through the crisis.

在危機期間，我們也會在那裡接手一些資產。

Wholesale acquisition of a company or just piece by piece?

是整間公司收購，還是零散地收購？

Going forward, I'm curious also, there's been questions about hedging against oil prices.

接下來，我也很好奇，關於對沖油價的問題一直都有人問。

I know a lot of the airlines have really moved away from that because it hasn't been profitable.

我知道很多航空公司已經遠離這種做法了，因為這並不賺錢。

Delta has a refinery investment that has helped somewhat to offset some of these costs.

Delta 有煉油廠的投資，這在某種程度上幫助抵銷了一些成本。

Do you have any plans around that in any capacity?

You know, it's we're so big, it's hard to effectively hedge.

你知道，我們公司規模太大，很難有效避險。

如果我們嘗試避險，就會影響整個市場。

It's really hard to hedge the crack spread.

要對沖油價價差真的非常困難。

You know, oil prices have gone up, the crack spread has gone up even more.

你知道，油價上漲，油價價差漲得更多。

I actually tried to do a deal with Adnoc years ago when I was at American,

我以前在 American Airlines 的時候，幾年前其實有試著跟 Adnoc 談一筆交易，

and it foundered over a force majeure clause where they wanted for it would have just been a swap.

結果因為一個不可抗力條款而告吹，他們想要的其實只是一個交換。

Foundered over a force majeure where they said, well, we need a force majeure.

因為一個不可抗力條款而告吹，他們說，嗯，我們需要一個不可抗力。

And I said, well, that's the whole point.

如果荷姆茲海峽關閉了怎麼辦？

That's when I want your hedge, and you can't get out of it.

那時候我就需要你的避險，你卻逃不掉。

So it's just really hard for us to hedge.

所以對我們來說，避險真的非常困難。

Meanwhile, if this were the only crisis you'd be dealing with, probably you'd be watching this clearly,

同時，如果這只是你唯一要面對的危機，你大概會看得清楚，

There is also this question around all of the scenes that we see in social media, etc., of TSA lines getting longer and longer.

還有社群媒體上我們看到的，像是 TSA 隊伍越來越長的這些畫面，也有這個問題。

Have you noticed people missing their flights?