Name: Paul Sankey 談伊朗戰爭、荷姆茲海峽風險與能源價格飆升！ (Paul Sankey on Iran War, Hormuz Risks and Energy Price Spike)
Uploaded: 2026-03-23T21:40:07.000Z
Duration: 5 min 21 s
Description: 【看影片學英語】數萬部 YouTube 影片，搭配英漢字典即點即查，輕鬆掌握單字發音與用法，長久累積看電影不必再看字幕。

First, I'd love to get your reaction to President Trump saying right now there have been some good talks with Iran, how you think this will affect the situation, the market, and

首先，我很想聽聽您對川普總統說目前與伊朗進行了一些良好會談的看法，您認為這將如何影響局勢、市場以及

轉承詞

Well, I think it's obviously it's driven everyone crazy, quite frankly, because, you know, it was a very rough Friday for people who are trying to trade the market already with two conflicting Truth Social posts from the president.

嗯，坦白說，這顯然讓每個人都抓狂了，因為你知道，對於那些已經在交易市場的人來說，上週五非常艱難，因為總統發布了兩個相互矛盾的 Truth Social 貼文。

Obviously, we went through the weekend under the enormous threat that there would be attacks on energy infrastructure in Iran, which the Iranians then said would lead to the counterattack against the desalination plants in the Gulf, which is terrifying because obviously that becomes a humanitarian crisis very quickly if that would happen.

顯然，我們度過了一個週末，面臨著伊朗能源基礎設施將遭到攻擊的巨大威脅，而伊朗則表示這將導致對海灣地區海水淡化廠的反擊，這非常可怕，因為顯然如果發生這種情況，很快就會變成一場人道危機。

So this was all the context of this morning there being an announcement, which in some ways was a true taco insofar as the president is now talking about negotiating.

所以這就是今天早上發布公告的所有背景，在某些方面這是一個真正的轉折，因為總統現在正在談論談判。

所以這本身就是一個積極的發展。

And also, of course, suspending the bombing, according to him.

而且，根據他的說法，也暫停了轟炸。

And again, that's what we've been looking for, really, is just let's just start by stopping bombing.

再說一次，這確實是我們一直在尋找的，就是讓我們先停止轟炸。

we don't know really the full truth, there's reports that Israel is bombing today.

我們並不真正知道全部真相，有報導稱以色列今天正在轟炸。

And of course, there's been various different messages coming from Iran along the lines of either there's been no negotiations or there are some negotiations in Pakistan.

而且，當然，伊朗方面傳來了各種不同的訊息，有的說沒有談判，有的說在巴基斯坦有一些談判。

You know, we don't really honestly know what's going on.

說真的，我們不太清楚到底發生了什麼事。

So with all that going on, what is the market mispricing about this crisis?

所以，在所有這些情況下，市場對這場危機的定價錯在哪裡呢？

Well, the Chevron CEO this morning said that basically there isn't enough information to price things correctly, but

嗯，雪佛龍的執行長今天早上說，基本上沒有足夠的資訊來正確定價，

at the moment the futures strip looks too low.

但目前期貨曲線看起來太低了。

I think the problem here is that there's such a devastating economic impact that it's very hard to believe that we'll sustain very high prices because what you're effectively going to do is crush a lot of these Asian economies.

我認為這裡的問題是，這會造成非常嚴重的經濟衝擊，很難相信我們會維持非常高的價格，因為你實際上會摧毀很多亞洲經濟體。

You're already crushing the Gulf economies by the day, and

你已經每天都在摧毀海灣經濟體了，

so the demand impact could be very negative from all of this.

所以這一切都可能對需求造成非常負面的衝擊。

So it's hard to outright state that, yes, you should be buying longer-term oil simply because we could be into a global depression type situation.

所以很難直接斷定說，是的，你應該買進長期原油，因為我們可能會陷入全球性蕭條的局面。

You know, you just talked a little bit about big oil CEOs.

你剛剛談到了大型石油公司的執行長們。

What do you think they are communicating to the White House right now during all of this uncertainty?

在這一切充滿不確定性的時刻，你認為他們現在跟白宮溝通的訊息是什麼？

Above all, don't mess with the free market for US energy.

最重要的是，別去幹擾美國能源的自由市場。

So the big message that they're going to send very strongly is don't ban exports of crude, don't ban exports of products.

所以他們會強烈傳達的訊息是，不要禁止原油出口，不要禁止產品出口。

Let's, you know, at least leave our market open for free trading because obviously with the Straits of Hormuz being shut, if you were to directly intervene in the market, such as banning gasoline exports, there would be a short-term major gain in terms of reducing the gasoline price, but

我們至少要讓我們的市場保持自由交易，因為顯然荷姆茲海峽被關閉了，如果你直接幹預市場，像是禁止汽油出口，短期內確實能降低汽油價格，

you're just adding a further level of distortion and uncertainty to the market.

但你只是為市場增加了更多扭曲和不確定性。

Do you envision the Straits really ever getting back to what we've known?

你覺得荷姆茲海峽真的能回到我們過去所知的樣子嗎？

I think this is because this is the first time it's ever been shut, it's a structural change because it's identified what is a major Achilles heel in terms of the potential to actually stop shipping.

我認為這是因為這是它第一次被關閉，這是一個結構性的改變，因為它指出了在阻止運輸方面潛在的一個重大致命弱點。

Up to now, you'd always thought, well, it'd be hard to stop shipping because you can't put a chain across the Strait.

到目前為止，你總以為，嗯，阻止運輸很難，因為你無法在海峽上架起鏈條。

But what the Iranians unfortunately have demonstrated is that just by threats alone, they can shut the Straits, and

但伊朗人不幸證明的是，僅憑威脅，他們就能關閉海峽，

therefore that risk has been introduced to the market as an ongoing structural risk.

並且是以，這個風險已經進入市場，成為一個持續的結構性風險。

With all this risk and all of everything that we have seen, what do you think this effect do you think this will have over big oil's investments appetite in the Middle East?

考量到所有這些風險以及我們所見的一切，你認為這對大型石油公司在中東的投資意願會有什麼影響？

Well, up until a month ago, they were getting excited about reinvesting in the Middle East, and

嗯，就在一個月前，他們還對在中東重新投資感到興奮，

they were actually praising President Trump for the openness that they were finding when they went to the Middle East in terms of investment.

而且他們實際上還讚揚川普總統，因為他們在中東投資時發現了開放的機會。

A good example would be Chevron getting into Iraq again on better terms.

一個很好的例子就是雪佛龍以更好的條件重返伊拉克。

Now, unfortunately, because of what we're saying about the Straits of Hormuz being structurally denigrated in terms of a much higher risk investment environment, we think that we're going to have to go to more domestic energy across the world.

現在，不幸的是，因為我們看到荷姆茲海峽的結構性風險增加，投資環境變得更加危險，我們認為全球將不得不轉向更多國內能源。

It's going to be domestic gas and oil production to the extent that people can develop it.

這將是國內的油氣生產，在人們能夠開發的範圍內。

And that should fundamentally alter the amount of investment that goes into the Middle East and also how much, for example, domestic energy infrastructure is invested in.

這應該會從根本上改變進入中東的投資金額，以及例如國內能源基礎設施的投資金額。

With all of this going on, what's your expectation for Venezuela getting other US oil companies to go to work there?

在所有這些情況下，你預期委內瑞拉能讓其他美國石油公司去那裡工作嗎？

Yeah, I think that's an obvious Western Hemisphere obviously benefits from any uncertainty in the Middle East.

是的，我認為這對西半球來說是顯而易見的，中東的任何不確定性都會讓西半球受益。

And the general situation in Venezuela is, you know, while uncertain, certainly being promoted by Chevron as one in which they're fairly aggressively planning to expand production and invest.

而委內瑞拉的總體情況，你知道，雖然不確定，但雪佛龍正積極推動在那裡擴大生產和投資。

And as time passes, I think you'll see more investment in Venezuela because it is such a huge resource so close to the US Gulf refiners.

隨著時間的推移，我認為你會看到更多對委內瑞拉的投資，因為它擁有巨大的資源，而且離美國墨西哥灣的煉油廠非常近。

So, you know, I think they are getting into it as we speak, and

所以，你知道，我認為就在我們說話的同時，他們已經開始行動了，

I think they will continue to do so assuming the security situation stays okay, which seems to be the case.

我認為他們會繼續這樣做，前提是安全局勢保持良好，而目前似乎確實如此。

But again, the CEO of Chevron this morning at the plenary session was saying that it's just going to take time in terms of the ability to really redevelop what has been a sector that's been chronically underinvested and mismanaged for basically 20 years now.

但話說回來，雪佛龍的執行長今天在全體會議上表示，由於這個行業基本上二十年來一直被長期忽視和管理不善，要真正重新開發它需要時間。

And so these things just can't be turned on overnight.

所以這些事情不可能一蹴可幾。

So to answer your question, I would say more of a '27 and beyond change, but

所以，回答你的問題，我會說大概是 2027 年以後的改變，

one which has enormous potential is absolutely no question.

但這絕對有巨大的潛力，這一點毫無疑問。

By some measures, as we all know, that Venezuela has the largest undeveloped oil reserves in the world.

我們都知道，從某些指標來看，委內瑞拉擁有世界上最大的未開發石油儲量。