Name: 德國為何需要新的產業策略？| The Dip Podcast (Why Germany needs a new industrial strategy | The Dip Podcast)
Uploaded: 2026-03-17T16:59:41.000Z
Duration: 14 min 9 s

程度副詞

The question is, will German car manufacturers keep losing market share until they are out of the market entirely or will it stabilize?

問題是，德國汽車製造商會一直失去市場佔有率直到完全退出市場，還是會穩定下來？

You do see some movement in the past year, some efforts to start to turn the ship, but

過去一年確實看到了一些動靜，一些扭轉局勢的努力，但是

In particular, Germany has a huge demographic problem.

特別是，德國面臨嚴重的人口結構問題。

We actually need far more skilled workers than Germany can provide.

我們實際需要的技術工人遠超過德國能提供的數量。

Germany's biggest potential in the labor market is female employment.

德國在勞動力市場最大的潛力在於女性就業。

The problem is not so much the cost side as the innovation side.

問題不在於成本方面，而在於創新方面。

Germany was once known as an industrial power powerhouse in Europe, but

德國曾經是歐洲的工業強國，但是

key sectors, including auto manufacturing, have been struggling for years.

關鍵行業，包括汽車製造，多年來一直面臨困境。

The latest figures show a drop in profits.

So for more we turn to our DW business colleague, Steven Beardsley.

所以，更多內容我們請教 DW 的商業同事 Steven Beardsley。

Well, I mean, there's a couple things going on in 2025 that are worth noticing.

嗯，有幾件事值得注意，關於 2025 年。

One is that Chinese sales have fallen dramatically.

You also saw strategy shifts, including big ones.

你也看到戰略上的轉變，而且是很重大的轉變。

Porsche, for example, basically 5 billion euros write off after it changed its strategy from pure electrification, going back from that step, saying we're going to have combustion engine models as well.

舉例來說，Porsche 在改變了純電動化的策略後，基本上是減記了 50 億歐元，他們從那一步退了回來，表示我們也會推出燃油引擎的車款。

That of course costs its parent company, Volkswagen.

這當然也讓它的母公司 Volkswagen 付出了代價。

We've known about these issues facing the carmakers for a while.

我們早就知道汽車製造商面臨這些問題了。

So why can't they seem to really get it together?

那為什麼他們似乎就是無法真正整合起來呢？

I mean, I think again, you have some special effects in 2025 that weren't expected.

我認為，2025 年又出現了一些意想不到的特殊情況。

That also makes it difficult to ship to China for examp and to supply certain markets.

這也讓出口到中國以及供應特定市場變得困難。

That also created a lot of consternation and uncertainty for these companies and that ate into their bottom lines.

這也讓這些公司感到非常不安和不確定，進而影響了他們的營收。

The bigger issue really is China though, and that's something that they can't really control.

更大的問題其實是中國，這是他們無法真正控制的。

The economy in China is down and you had a number of carmakers, Mercedes and Porsche, really stand out that really wanted to sell luxury to China.

中國的經濟正在下滑，而且有許多汽車製造商，像是 Mercedes 和 Porsche，非常想將豪華車賣到中國。

Again, you do see some movement in the past year, some efforts to start to turn the ship, but

再說一次，過去一年確實看到了一些動靜，一些努力開始要扭轉局面，但是

Okay, so that was why they couldn't turn it around.

好的，所以這就是他們為什麼無法扭轉局面的原因。

But casting our eye to this year, can they turn it around?

但是放眼今年，他們能夠扭轉局面嗎？

How crucial is 2026 to these German car brand brands?

2026 年對這些德國汽車品牌有多重要？

2026 will tell us a number of things about how these companies are positioning themselves and how new offerings will appeal.

2026 年會告訴我們很多關於這些公司如何定位自己，以及新產品的吸引力。

There are some things to like when we look at the European market, which of course German automakers want to really Defend as they see more competition coming from China home turf.

歐洲市場有一些值得關注的地方，德國汽車製造商當然想全力捍衛，因為他們看到越來越多來自中國本土的競爭。

We've had new releases from Mercedes, from BMW and Volkswagen, I should say they're making those steps.

Mercedes、BMW 和 Volkswagen 都推出了新車款，我應該說他們正在採取這些措施。

They're going to produce more vehicles, more models that we're going to see outcome, we're going to see come out just for China because that's what we see as a diversion of the Chinese and the European markets.

他們將生產更多車輛、更多車型，我們將看到這些車型推出，專為中國市場推出，因為我們看到中國和歐洲市場正在分化。

They're working with Chinese, with Chinese partners there, collaborating to make something that's more exciting for that market.

他們與中國夥伴合作，共同打造更吸引人的產品。

So of course, the carmakers are just one part of this story.

所以，當然，汽車製造商只是這故事的一部分。

It's an issue which affects the entire German industrial sector and therefore the economy as a whole.

這是一個影響整個德國工業部門，進而影響整體經濟的問題。

So Marcel Fradscher, president of the German Institute for Economic Research in Berlin, can join us now to tell us a little bit more.

來自柏林德國經濟研究所的所長 Marcel Fradscher，現在可以加入我們，告訴我們更多細節。

Marcel, it looks like German industrial production has slumped significantly.

Marcel，看起來德國的工業生產大幅下滑了。

Is this just a blip or is this a sign of broader decline?

這只是一時的現象，還是更廣泛衰退的跡象？

This has been an ongoing process at least since 2019.

這是一個持續進行的過程，至少從 2019 年開始。

So for the past six, seven years, particularly the automotive sector, but also other sectors.

所以過去六、七年來，特別是汽車業，但也包括其他產業。

Though we have to be aware, Germany has a fairly large industrial sector and not all sectors are affected equally, but

不過我們必須意識到，德國的工業部門相當龐大，並非所有產業都受到相同影響，但

the automotive sector is particularly strongly affected.

Against this background, do you see the crisis, for example, that's happening in Iran right now, the effect on energy prices as something which could significantly weigh on Germany's economy as it tries to get out of this slump.

在這樣的背景下，你認為目前在伊朗發生的危機，例如對能源價格的影響，會顯著拖累德國經濟，讓它難以擺脫低迷嗎？

Because one of the big issues that industry complains about is the high cost of energy in Germany.

因為產業抱怨的大問題之一是德國的能源成本很高。

Yes, it will have a big impact on the German economy, partly because Germany is highly dependent on energy imports of gas and oil, not necessarily from the Middle east, but

是的，這將對德國經濟產生重大影響，部分原因是德國高度依賴天然氣和石油的能源進口，不一定是來自中東，而是

And as market prices all over the world are rising, it's hitting Germany hard, harder than others.

而且隨著全球市場價格都在上漲，這對德國造成的衝擊比其他國家更嚴重。

Also because we have a fairly large energy intensive industry in Germany.

也因為德國有相當龐大的能源密集型產業。

And so one mechanism is precisely higher energy cost, a faster increase.

所以其中一個機制就是能源成本更高，漲得更快。

Then let's put say in China or the United States.

那麼，我們來看看中國或美國。

And that puts German industries at an additional disadvantage.

這讓德國的產業處於額外的劣勢。

And we've seen, for example, with the carmakers in Germany the effect that all of this is having.

而且我們也看到了，例如德國的汽車製造商，這一切所造成的影響。

Certainly it's the most prominent example to people who don't look into the details of the German economy.

對於那些不深入瞭解德國經濟細節的人來說，這無疑是最顯著的例子。

We heard from Steve earlier that VW's profit has shrunk significantly.

我們稍早聽 Steve 說，Volkswagen 的利潤大幅縮水。

So what does it tell you that Europe's biggest carmaker is operating on margins thinner than a supermarket chain?

那麼，歐洲最大的汽車製造商的利潤率比連鎖超市還薄，這對你說明瞭什麼？

But first of all, the, the profits by Volkswagen have halved.

不過首先，Volkswagen 的利潤減半了。

You could say a company in crisis that still makes 9 billion profits a year is not so bad, right?

你可以說一家還能年賺 90 億的公司，其實狀況不算太糟，對吧？

I mean they're still making profits and they still have plenty of liquidity.

我的意思是，他們還是有賺錢，而且流動性也很充裕。

The point here is that Volkswagen doesn't have, has really problem of innovation, so it's losing market shares.

重點是 Volkswagen 在創新方面有很大的問題，所以正在失去市場佔有率。

The profit margins on the regular cars with combustion engine are going down.

Volkswagen is trying to cut costs and has been doing so already.

Volkswagen 正在努力削減成本，而且已經在這麼做了。

So the problem is not so much the cost side as the innovation side.

所以問題不在於成本方面，而在於創新方面。

And we all know Chinese, American, South Korean companies are moving ahead on electric cars and battery technologies and German car manufacturers are left behind.

我們都知道中國、美國、韓國的公司在電動車和電池技術方面突飛猛進，而德國汽車製造商卻落後了。

So the challenge is not short term, the challenge is long term.

所以挑戰不是短期的，而是長期的。

And as I said on the profits and liquidity position, it's still fully in the hands of German automotive makers to turn the tide and become competitive again.

而且就像我說的，在利潤和流動性方面，德國汽車製造商仍然完全有能力扭轉局勢，重新恢復競爭力。

The carmaker decline, that's been a story in Germany for quite a while and we know the ingredients here, right?

汽車製造商的衰退，這在德國已經是個持續一段時間的故事了，我們也知道這裡的要素是什麼，對吧？

It's increased Chinese competition, high energy prices.

包括中國競爭加劇、能源價格高漲。

These are increasing the cost of making German cars.

這些都增加了德國汽車的製造成本。

The high energy prices that is there, there are many factors here.

能源價格高漲這件事，這裡有很多因素。

So is there any remedy in your view or do we just have to accept that the German car industry is in its decline era?

所以，在你來看有什麼解決辦法嗎？還是我們只能接受德國汽車工業正處於衰退時期？

Well, you know, from an economic point of view, companies, industries often go away.

嗯，你知道的，從經濟學的角度來看，公司、產業經常會興衰起落。

The German automotive sector has had spectacularly good times between let's say the late 90s and 2018, 2019, increasing sales, capturing market share elsewhere in the world.

德國汽車業在 90 年代末到 2018、2019 年之間，經歷了非常輝煌的時期，銷售額不斷增長，在全球其他地方也佔據了市場份額。

The key point is the automotive sector worldwide is growing as Chinese consumers, in particular Indian and other consumers are becoming, becoming richer and want to buy car.

關鍵在於全球汽車產業正在成長，特別是中國、印度和其他國家的消費者變得越來越富裕，想買車。

So over the long term, that's still a growth sector.

所以從長遠來看，這仍然是一個成長中的產業。

And the question is, will German car manufacturers keep losing market share until they're out of the market entirely, or will it stabilize?

Or will they turn the tide and actually manage to regain their competitive advantage?

還是他們會扭轉局勢，設法重新獲得競爭優勢？

And as I said, German automotive companies have been too slow in adopting new technologies, both electric cars, battery technologies as well as autonomous driving.

就像我說的，德國汽車公司在採用新技術方面太慢了，包括電動車、電池技術以及自動駕駛。

That will be the next challenge and that will be probably a much bigger challenge to the automotive sector than the E mobility.

這將是下一個挑戰，而且對汽車產業來說，這可能會比電動化是個更大的挑戰。

When you put it that way, it almost makes the problem sound worse that there's a pie that's growing and even still the German slice of it is shrinking.

這麼說來，問題聽起來更糟了，明明有個不斷成長的大餅，德國的份額卻還在縮小。

It makes me think of the people who have these jobs which were once considered quite safe jobs here in Germany because more than half of German business associations are expected to cut jobs in 2026.

這讓我想起那些曾經在德國被認為相當穩定的工作，因為預計超過一半的德國商業協會將在 2026 年裁員。

How bad could the unemployment picture get here?

這裡的失業情況到底會有多嚴重？

Especially when we're Talking about industry and autos and the like.

特別是當我們談論到工業和汽車等產業時。

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德國為何需要新的產業策略？| The Dip Podcast (Why Germany needs a new industrial strategy | The Dip Podcast)

potential

struggle

strategy

term