Name: 轟炸伊朗不會帶來勝利，只有外交途徑才能達成：美國前將領 (Bombing Iran won’t bring victory, only diplomacy can: Former US general)
Uploaded: 2026-03-08T21:33:33.000Z
Duration: 4 min 48 s

Bring in Mark Kimmet, who's a retired American general and a former Assistant Secretary for Political Military affairs, joins us now from Washington, D.C.

歡迎來自華盛頓特區的退休美國將軍、前政治軍事事務助理國務卿 Mark Kimmet。

Mark Kimmet，很高興您能加入我們。

As you see, what is Iran hoping to achieve with the strategy that it's conducting?

您認為伊朗這次的策略，是希望達成什麼目標呢？

Well, I think the easiest way to think about it is look at Ukraine and Russia.

嗯，我認為最簡單的理解方式，就是看看烏克蘭和俄羅斯。

Right now, Russia is conducting a strategic bombing campaign and as we've known for months and months, they're trying to really degrade the will of the people, who in turn will then pressure their country's leadership to try to stop the war.

現在俄羅斯正在進行戰略轟炸行動，而且我們已經知道好幾個月了，他們試圖削弱人民的意志，進而施壓其國家領導層來試圖停止戰爭。

It does not seem at this point that that is happening.

但目前看來，這似乎並沒有發生。

The resolve of the Israeli people seems to be quite strong.

以色列人民的決心似乎相當堅定。

Okay, and what about its attacks on its regional neighbours, particularly in the Gulf?

好的，那關於伊朗攻擊區域鄰國，特別是海灣地區，又是怎麼回事呢？

It is clear that the regional countries did not want to be drug into this war.

顯然，區域國家並不想被捲入這場戰爭。

They are being forced to make a choice in this war, although public opinion is less important in those countries.

他們在這場戰爭中被迫做出選擇，儘管在這些國家，公眾輿論的重要性相對較低。

Nonetheless, the pressure on the leadership demonstrated through the press, through social media, they hope to have an impact on turning those countries leadership around and, and

儘管如此，透過媒體和社群媒體對領導層施加的壓力，他們希望能夠影響這些國家的領導層，

either completely telling the American forces to leave or at least being neutral on the war, or even worse, potentially asking the countries in the region for the Americans to either not fly or leave the country at worst.

要麼完全要求美國軍隊撤離，要麼至少在這場戰爭中保持中立，甚至更糟的是，可能會要求區域國家讓美國不要飛越或最糟情況是撤離該國。

All right, from the US Point of view, they say it's going better than expected and plenty more is to come.

好的，從美國的觀點來看，他們說情況比預期中好，而且還有更多行動即將展開。

From what you see, is it going as well as the United States might expect?

以你所見，情況有像美國預期的那麼好嗎？

軍事上，進展非常、非常順利。

They're plinking the targets that they have.

They've demonstrated the capability of the United States military and the ability to just put sheer volume on Iran.

他們展現了美國軍隊的能力，以及能對伊朗施加巨大數量的攻擊。

However, as I said a number of times before on other outlets, this reminds me of my Vietnam years when we thought body counts were going to lead to victory.

然而，正如我之前在其他場合多次說過的，這讓我想起越戰時期，那時我們認為殺敵數量會帶來勝利。

I don't see how knocking out these targets are in any way going to lead to victory.

我不認為摧毀這些目標能在任何方面帶來勝利。

And that's the concern that has been expressed throughout the world.

這也是全世界都表達過的擔憂。

Okay, on this question of boots on the ground, which Donald Trump is not ruling out, there's this issue of more than 400 kilos of enriched uranium somewhere in Iran.

好的，關於地面部隊這個問題，川普並沒有排除可能性，但還有一個問題，就是伊朗境內有超過 400 公斤的濃縮鈾。

And one presumes that neither Israel nor the United States will end this without getting their hands on that.

而且我們可以推測，以色列和美國都不會就這樣結束，而是會想辦法拿到那些濃縮鈾。

And that would entail sending people in, right?

Well, it doesn't necessarily have to be done with boots on the ground.

嗯，不一定非得靠地面部隊才能完成。

Let's hope that this entire war ends at the diplomatic table, that both sides either understand that we're not going to win this by bombing each other into the stone Age that it's eventually there's going to be have to be some sitting down at the diplomatic table to hash out the issues that they were working on a couple of weeks ago.

我們希望這場戰爭能在外交談判桌上結束，雙方都明白我們無法透過互相轟炸到石器時代來獲勝，最終還是得坐上外交談判桌，來解決幾週前他們還在處理的問題。

Although I would suspect that the Americans will make that cost of coming back to the diplomatic table much higher.

雖然我猜測美國會讓重返外交談判桌的代價變得更高。

But it is certainly the case that if this does end at the diplomatic table, there will need to be inspections, verifications of where that enhanced uranium is and clearly having that enhanced uranium handed over to either the Americans or another third country so that it can be removed from the Iranians hands.

但可以肯定的是，如果這場戰爭真的在外交談判桌上結束，就必須進行檢查和驗證，確認這些濃縮鈾在哪裡，並且很明顯地，要把這些濃縮鈾交給美國或另一個第三方國家，這樣才能從伊朗手中移除。

There's another factor, isn't there, as far as the United States is concerned that we've alluded to already in this, in this program that is the cost of war.

另外還有一個因素，對美國來說，我們在這個節目裡已經提到過的，那就是戰爭的成本。

And Politico is reporting that Republicans on Capitol Hill privately fear that Pentagon is spending closer to $2 billion a day, $2 billion a day on this and that somewhere down the line is going to have implications, right?

Politico 報導說，國會裡的共和黨人私下擔心，國防部每天的花費接近 20 億美元，每天 20 億美元，這在未來肯定會產生影響，對吧？

Well, it will be down the line because remember when you add those numbers together, those are sunk costs.

嗯，這確實會影響未來，因為請記得，當你把這些數字加起來，那些都是沉沒成本。

We have already bought this ammunition we've already paid for in our appropriations bill, the pilots, the soldiers, the sailors.

我們已經買了這些彈藥，我們已經在撥款法案裡支付了飛行員、阿兵哥、海軍的費用。

It's the cost of replacing those inventories that will be so expensive.

昂貴的是補充這些庫存的成本。

So a billion a day right now is not having an effect in future appropriations budgets.

所以目前每天 10 億美元，並不會影響未來的撥款預算。

That's Mark Kimmitt speaking just there from Washington D.C. thank you, sir.

剛才說話的是來自華盛頓特區的 Mark Kimmet，謝謝您，先生。

字幕列表影片播放

轟炸伊朗不會帶來勝利，只有外交途徑才能達成：美國前將領 (Bombing Iran won’t bring victory, only diplomacy can: Former US general)

significant

strategy

demonstrate

potentially