Name: 美元失控了？華盛頓對債券市場失去掌控！ (The Dollar is Losing Control As Washington Loses Control Over The Bond Market)
Uploaded: 2026-03-08T18:09:56.000Z
Duration: 12 min 39 s

The US national debt is getting out of control and we have to talk about it.

美國國債已經失控了，我們必須來聊聊這件事。

程度副詞

The Congressional Budget Office has just released their projection for the next 10 years.

國會預算辦公室剛公佈了未來十年的預測。

基礎被動語態

And the national debt is expected to cross $63 trillion by 2036.

預計到2036年，美國國債將突破63兆美元。

For comparison, that number today stands at $38.5 trillion, which is really enormous.

拿來比較一下，現在的數字是38.5兆美元，這真的非常龐大。

Which means that the US government will have to find somebody that will loan the US government about $25 trillion.

這表示美國政府必須找到人，願意借給美國政府大約25兆美元。

The US government does not pay off its debts.

美國政府並不會償還它的債務。

And that means that nobody actually knows how the government will raise another $25 trillion over the next 10 years.

這就代表，在未來十年內，沒有人確切知道政府要怎麼籌出另外25兆美元。

The national debt could be divided into two categories, the public debt and the intra governmental debt.

美國國債可以抽成兩類：公債和政府內部債務。

Intra governmental debt is when the government owes money to itself.

政府內部債務是指政府欠自己的錢。

So, so one government agency owes money to another government agency, even if we exclude that because it's impossible for the government to go broke when it owes money to itself.

所以，一個政府機構欠另一個政府機構錢，即使我們排除這一點，因為政府欠自己的錢不可能破產。

If you just take the public debt, the total public debt by 2036 is expected to cross $56 trillion and a debt to GDP ratio will be 120%.

如果只看公債，到2036年總公債預計將超過56兆美元，債務與GDP比率將達到120%。

And that's because the US national debt has has crossed a point where it will continue rising from now onwards exponentially.

這是因為美國國債已經越過一個點，從現在開始將指數級增長。

Just like when you start investing, it is really difficult in the beginning, but

就像你剛開始投資時，一開始真的很難，但是

the moment you hit $1 million in your investments, your million dollars are going to grow exponentially.

一旦你的投資達到100萬美元，你的100萬美元將會指數級增長。

But the same thing happens when you owe debt.

但欠債時也會發生同樣的事情。

So the real question at the end of the day is that how the government can raise so much money.

所以，歸根究底，真正的問題是政府如何籌集這麼多錢。

There are three major types of categories who buy the US national debt.

Foreign countries and foreign companies often invest in the United States because they make a lot of money in the US So if you are a Japanese business doing business in the United States and you made so much money, you plan to grow your business in the U.S.

外國和外國公司經常投資美國，因為他們在美國賺了很多錢。所以如果你是一家在日本經營的美國公司，賺了很多錢，並計劃在美國擴展業務。

so you're going to take a portion of your money and you're going to buy the US Treasuries because if you keep them in US dollars, there is inflation.

所以你會拿出部分資金來購買美國國庫券，因為如果把錢放在美元裡，會有通貨膨脹。

Your money loses value, which is why you are going to buy U.S.

你的錢會貶值，這就是為什麼你會購買美國國庫券。

treasuries and consistently receive interest from the U.S. government.

並持續從美國政府那裡獲得利息。

About 15 years ago, around half of the entire U.S.

大約在15年前，美國的整個國債中，大約有一半是由外國和外國公司持有的。

national debt was owned by the foreign countries and foreign companies.

今天，這個數字已經驟減到不到30%。

Today, that number has plummeted to less than 30%.

所以光看這張圖，你就可以看到這個數字會持續下降。

So just by looking at this chart alone, you can see that this number will continue falling down.

而且，外國和外國公司對美國債務的興趣越來越小。

And, and foreign countries and foreign businesses have less and less appetite in the US debt.

Maybe because they don't trust the United States.

而且因為唐納·川普成功地破壞了美國與許多其他國家的關係，包括美國最親密的盟友，以及持有大量美國國債的國家。

And because Donald Trump had successfully ruined United States relationships with many other countries, including the closest allies of the United States, including the countries that own a lot of the US national debt.

I don't think they trust the United States more now.

我認為他們現在對美國的信任度並沒有增加。

他們對美國的信任度可能大大降低了。

So we can't actually expect foreign countries to buy more.

所以我們其實不能期待外國會買更多。

The second category or the type of investors in the US Debt are Americans.

第二類或說美國債務的投資者是美國人。

If you want to operate a bank in the U.S. you must buy U.S.

如果你想在美國經營銀行，你必須購買美國

treasuries, because U.S. treasuries are considered safe haven assets.

國庫券，因為美國國庫券被視為避險資產。

So if you're a bank, you must have these investments just in case.

所以如果你是銀行，你必須持有這些投資，以防萬一。

If depositors will come back asking for their money, you.

存款戶回來要求領錢的時候，你。

You can easily turn U.S. treasuries into cash and pay your depositors.

你可以輕鬆地將美國國庫券轉成現金，然後支付給你的存款戶。

Besides banks, we also have hedge funds and pension funds.

除了銀行之外，我們還有避險基金和退休基金。

They invest in wide variety of type of assets.

他們投資各種不同類型的資產。

A portion of that goes into the stock market, maybe the real estate.

其中一部分會進入股票市場，也可能是房地產。

But because US Dollars or the US Treasuries are considered safe haven assets, you must invest a portion of your investments into safe haven assets as long as they pay you an interest rate or a yield that is higher than inflation.

但因為美元或美國國庫券被視為避險資產，你必須將一部分的投資投入避險資產，只要它們支付給你的利率或報酬率高於通膨。

So if inflation is 3%, then you're expecting maybe 3.5 to 4.5% from the US government.

所以如果通膨是 3%，那麼你預期美國政府可能會給你 3.5% 到 4.5%。

The third major investor in the US debt is the Federal Reserve.

第三個美國債務的主要投資者是聯邦準備理事會。

Unlike the first two types of investors, the Federal Reserve is part of the US Government, but

和前兩種類型的投資者不同，聯邦準備理事會是美國政府的一部分，但

And the job of the Fed is to stabilize the U.S. economy.

而聯準會的工作就是穩定美國經濟。

And when the Fed buys the U.S. treasuries, it does not do that from earning money.

而聯準會購買美國國庫券，並不是用賺來的錢。

So every time you hear the news that the Fed has purchased U.S.

所以每次你聽到新聞說聯準會購買了美國

treasuries, you have to understand the most important thing that the Federal Reserve just now has printed money and bought the U.S.

國庫券，你都要知道最重要的一件事，就是聯準會剛剛印了錢，然後買了美國

treasuries or gave a loan to the U.S. government.

國庫券，或是借了錢給美國政府。

美元在市場上就像其他商品一樣，價值來自於稀缺性。

dollar in the market is treated like any other commodity and its value derives from its scarcity.

所以拿黃金和沙子來做個例子。

It's filled outside and nobody cares about it because there is just so much of it.

外面到處都是沙子，沒人會在意，因為它實在太多了。

But you don't see much gold outside because it's scarce.

但是你很少看到黃金出現在外面，因為它很稀少。

So the Federal Reserve manipulates the value of the dollar through scarcity.

所以聯準會透過稀缺性來操控美元的價值。

But what happens when the Fed throws more dollars into the economy?

但是，當聯準會往經濟體注入更多美元時，會發生什麼事？

Of course, the scarcity of the dollar plummets will, which means that your dollars are going to worth a lot less.

當然，美元的稀缺性會暴跌，這意味著你的美元價值會大幅降低。

So since the inception of the Fed, the Federal Reserve has increased its balance sheet.

所以，自從聯準會成立以來，它就一直在擴大資產負債表。

Now it has about $6.6 trillion worth of assets.

現在它的資產價值大約有 6.6 兆美元。

About $2 trillion of that are mortgage backed securities.

其中大約有 2 兆美元是抵押貸款支持證券。

Because the Federal Reserve has also been subsidizing the housing market.

因為聯準會也一直在補貼房地產市場。

And about $4.6 trillion of that are the U.S. treasuries.

其中大約有 4.6 兆美元是美國國庫券。

So the Federal Reserve owns about $4.6 trillion of the U.S. debt.

所以聯準會持有大約 4.6 兆美元的美國國債。

If you look at the projection of the CBO, you will see that over the next 10 years that number is going to grow from $4.6 trillion to $9.5 trillion.

如果你看國會預算辦公室的預測，你會發現未來十年這個數字會從 4.6 兆美元成長到 9.5 兆美元。

Since the inception of the Federal Reserve up until today, the the Federal Reserve has purchased or gave a $4.6 trillion loan to the US government or printed this much money and threw it into the economy.

從聯準會成立到現在，聯準會購買了或借給美國政府 4.6 兆美元的貸款，或是印了這麼多錢丟進經濟體裡。

But within just the next 10 years, between 2026 and 2036, it is going to double that.

但光是未來十年，也就是 2026 到 2036 年之間，它就會翻倍。

So that number is going to cross $9.6 trillion according to this estimate.

所以根據這個估計，這個數字將會突破 9.6 兆美元。

What is going to happen to the value of your dollars, to the value of your savings, to your wages when the Federal Reserve is going to double the amount of dollars in the economy?

當聯準會要將經濟體中的美元數量翻倍時，你的美元價值、你的儲蓄價值、你的薪資會發生什麼事？

This sounds like it's not going to happen.

But if you literally just pull out the chart and you see how much the dollar loss of its value since the Federal Reserve was created, you can see that it already lost like 97% of its value.

但如果你真的拿出圖表，看看自從聯準會成立以來，美元損失了多少價值，你會發現它已經損失了大概 97% 的價值了。

So the fact that it's going to lose another 50% of its value over the next 10 years is not a surprise at all.

所以，未來十年內再損失 50% 的價值，一點也不讓人意外。

Because this is just one tiny part of the entire problem.

因為這只是整個問題中很小的一部分。

treasuries, especially 30 year government bonds, there are going to be higher mortgage rates.

美國國庫券，特別是 30 年期政府公債，房貸利率會更高。

How are my mortgage rates related to the US Government borrowing money?

我的房貸利率跟美國政府借錢有什麼關係？

You see, the entire financial market is one huge bazaar.

你知道，整個金融市場就像一個超大的市集。

That means that investors are looking for better deals.

這表示投資人會尋找更好的交易。

The lower the risks, the lower are going to be the returns.

The higher the rates, the higher are going to be the returns.

Because the US Government is the safest investments in the world.

因為美國政府是全世界最安全的投資。

Because it's considered a safe haven asset.

Which is why the U.S. treasuries offer the lowest yields in the market.

這也是為什麼美國國庫券提供市場上最低的殖利率。

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美元失控了？華盛頓對債券市場失去掌控！ (The Dollar is Losing Control As Washington Loses Control Over The Bond Market)

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