Name: 學習分析的未來：Bryan Alexander 專訪完整版！ (Learning Analytics Futures: Bryan Alexander – Full Interview)
Uploaded: 2026-03-03T12:00:09.000Z
Duration: 26 min 1 s

Brian Alexander is our guest interviewee today.

布萊恩·亞歷山大是我們今天的受訪嘉賓。

I have with me Rebecca Ferguson and Kristi Kitto.

我身邊有蕾貝卡·佛格森和克莉絲蒂·奇託。

And we will be talking with Brian today about the future of learning analytics.

今天我們要和布萊恩聊聊學習分析的未來。

We'd like to ask you who you are and, and

why you think we are talking with you today.

你覺得我們今天為什麼要跟你聊。

Well, I don't know if I can help you with the second part, but

嗯，我不知道我能不能幫你回答第二個問題，但是

That means that I help people think more creatively and strategically about the future.

這代表我幫助人們更有創意、更有策略地思考未來。

My specific focus is the future of higher education.

我專注的領域是高等教育的未來。

I write scholarly books like here's one, my most recent one, over my shoulder.

我會寫學術書籍，就像這本，我最新的書，就在我身後。

I teach classes at Georgetown University and get into all kinds of trouble.

我在喬治城大學教課，也會惹上各種麻煩。

我追蹤大約 95 條不同的趨勢線。

The impacting future, the future of higher education.

這些趨勢線影響著未來，影響著高等教育的未來。

And some of them include learning analytics, everything from big data to AI.

其中有些包含學習分析，從大數據到 AI 都有。

So that, that last part may be why you invited me here.

所以，最後這部分可能就是你邀請我來的原因。

That is in fact why we why we invited you.

So when you think about education, the education field, and

所以當你想到教育，想到教育領域，

I know in particular you have interest in higher education, but

我知道你特別關注高等教育，但是

you know, learning analytics crosses both higher ed and k12.

學習分析橫跨了高等教育和 K12。

So please feel free to speak to both if you wish.

所以如果你願意，請隨時暢所欲言。

But where do you see education heading in 10 years overall or focusing on learning analytics?

那麼，你認為教育在未來 10 年的整體走向，或者聚焦在學習分析的走向會是如何？

整體來說，你認為它會走向何方？

Depending on how we do things, higher education in the United States may shrink a bit.

這取決於我們如何做，美國的高等教育可能會稍微萎縮。

That is, we may have overbuilt our academic institutions for the demand that we will actually experience.

也就是說，我們可能為實際將會面臨的需求，過度興建了學術機構。

And that demand may shrink as a result of demographics.

而這種需求可能會因為人口統計學的變化而萎縮。

It may shrink as a result of changing public attitudes towards higher education.

這可能會因為大眾對高等教育的態度轉變而萎縮。

And it may also be the impact of artificial intelligence in terms of demographics.

這也可能是 AI 在人口統計學方面造成的影響。

I mean, it's pretty clear right now that the human race is moving to a position where we have fewer and fewer kids and we live longer and longer lives.

我的意思是，現在很清楚，人類正走向一個孩子越來越少、壽命越來越長的局面。

A lot of higher education is still aimed at the traditional age 18 to 22 year old.

許多高等教育仍是針對傳統的 18 到 22 歲年齡層。

Now if the pronatalists like Orban in Hungary and Vance in the US suddenly waved magic wands and women just suddenly, just became pregnant tomorrow, that wouldn't have an impact on higher education for 19 years.

現在，如果像匈牙利的歐爾班和美國的範斯這些鼓勵生育者突然揮動魔杖，女性明天就突然懷孕了，這要在 19 年後才會對高等教育產生影響。

So I think for the next 10 years, that's one thing we have to bear in mind.

所以我認為，未來 10 年，這是我們必須牢記的一件事。

That is, higher education is increasingly unpopular.

也就是說，高等教育越來越不受歡迎。

People are increasingly skeptical of it for a wide range of reasons.

出於各種原因，人們對它越來越懷疑。

So in we have the Republican party and conservatives who think that higher education is a hotbed of fill in the blank, you know, Bolshevism, transgenderism, etc.

所以我們看到共和黨和保守派認為高等教育是滋生，你知道的，布爾什維克主義、跨性別主義等等的溫床。

But also there's a lot of nervousness about student debt.

但同時，大家對學生債務也感到非常緊張。

There's a sense that higher education is snooty or looks down at people.

大家覺得高等教育很跩，或者看不起別人。

And there's a sense that the labor market, higher education might not be the best guide to the labor market in terms of AI.

而且大家覺得，在AI方面，高等教育可能不是勞動市場的最佳指南。

It's quite possible that AI will simply make higher education look bad.

很有可能AI會讓高等教育看起來很糟糕。

That as AI improves in quality, that people may feel they can get a better and better experience from AI without having to go into debt.

隨著AI品質的提升，大家可能會覺得他們可以從AI獲得越來越好的體驗，而不用背負債務。

At the same time, since we have zero ability to control cheating in higher education due to AI, that it's possible that people will just start perceiving degrees to be of lower quality.

同時，由於我們完全無法控制AI在高等教育中的作弊問題，大家可能會開始覺得學位品質下降。

So I think with all those, I think we're heading to perhaps a shrunken sector.

所以我覺得，綜合以上這些，我們可能正走向一個萎縮的產業。

By shrunken I mean fewer students, fewer staff and faculty working there, perhaps fewer institutions as well.

我說的萎縮是指學生人數減少、教職員工減少，甚至可能機構也會減少。

I don't mean to be so grim and ominous sounding.

我不是故意要說得這麼悲觀或不祥。

I mean, I think there are a lot more going on.

我的意思是，我覺得還有很多其他事情正在發生。

But in terms of the big picture, I think that's there now.

但就大局來看，我認為現在就是這樣了。

That's if we do things, if we do things wrong, if on the other hand, if we double down on creative work in higher education, if we do more student centered work, if we take advantage of the technology, it's like, oh, I'll just pick one.

這是在我們做錯事的情況下，反過來說，如果我們在高等教育中加倍投入創意工作，做更多以學生為中心的工作，利用科技，就像，喔，我隨便挑一個。

If we can improve the higher education experience, then that may improve our reputation and improve our ability to keep going and doing what we're doing.

如果我們能改善高等教育的體驗，那麼這可能會提升我們的聲譽，並增強我們繼續做我們正在做的事情的能力。

Yeah, so I have a question about that because on the one hand I think that that's definitely a possibility in the Australian context and maybe in the American context, maybe, you know, generally.

是的，關於這一點我有一個問題，因為一方面我認為在澳洲的背景下，這絕對是可能的，在美國的背景下也可能是，你知道，普遍來說。

But actually, do you think those attitudes are prevailing globally?

但實際上，你認為這些態度在全球普遍存在嗎？

Well, I phrase this pretty precisely to speak to the US in part because I'm finishing up a book on the subject right now.

嗯，我這麼精確地措辭，部分是因為我現在正在寫一本關於這個主題的書，所以是針對美國的。

But I work globally and I work with schools everywhere from Scandinavia to Australia to Singapore to Russia.

不過我是在全球各地工作，從斯堪地那維亞、澳洲、新加坡到俄羅斯，我都跟學校有合作。

And I think it really varies from country to country.

The US really pushed the boundaries on student debt were way beyond anybody else.

美國在學生債務方面真的開創了先例，遠遠超過其他國家。

But Britain is also starting to experience both a decline in revenue for their institutions, including Russell Group schools, and

但英國也開始面臨機構收入下降的問題，包括羅素集團的學校，而且

they're also suffering from declining enrollment, partly the self inflicted wound of Brexit.

他們的註冊人數也在下降，這部分是脫歐造成的自傷。

Canada, for example, is now suffering a huge reduction in enrollment because the federal government there decided to drastically reduce international enrollment.

舉例來說，加拿大現在面臨註冊人數大幅減少，因為加拿大聯邦政府決定大幅削減國際學生的招生名額。

Canadian higher education really depended on international enrollment.

加拿大的高等教育非常依賴國際學生的註冊。

And so they are looking at program cuts across the country, especially in Ontario, now Australia.

所以他們現在全國都要考慮削減課程，尤其是在安大略省，還有澳洲。

You guys also depend heavily on international enrollment, especially from Asia, especially from China.

你們也很依賴國際學生的註冊，特別是來自亞洲，尤其是中國的。

Depend on quite a few things, including geopolitics.

這取決於很多因素，包括地緣政治。

If Trump heightens Cold War 2.0 and China decides to punish aukus nations for participating, we might see fewer students flow that way.

如果川普加劇第二次冷戰，而中國決定懲罰參與的澳英美聯盟國家，我們可能會看到較少學生流向那裡。

But also all these countries, you know, Australia, Britain, all of Europe, I mean, anywhere that has gone through development has gone through the demographic transition.

但還有所有這些國家，你知道的，澳洲、英國、整個歐洲，我的意思是，任何經歷過發展的國家都經歷了人口轉型。

The minute you give a society improved healthcare, improved public health, greater wealth, and

當你開始給予社會更好的醫療保健、更好的公共衛生、更大的財富，

especially once you give women more access to education, more access to the labor market, greater control over reproduction.

特別是當你給予女性更多接受教育、進入勞動市場的機會，以及對生育更大的掌控權時。

Once you do that, childbirth falls off a cliff in almost every single society.

一旦你這麼做了，幾乎所有社會的生育率都會急劇下降。

I mean, you can find a couple of exceptions.

我的意思是，你可以找到幾個例外。

Israel, there are a few communities in the west bank which are still producing kids.

在以色列，約旦河西岸有一些社群仍然在生育。

In the United States, there are some very, very conservative people in Utah that are still producing kids at scale otherwise.

在美國，猶他州有一些非常非常保守的人們仍然在大量生育，否則。

Which is why China, for example, is so terrified, because their, because their population is going through this massive transformation right now, which is why they are now no longer the most populous nation on earth.

這就是為什麼中國，例如，如此恐懼，因為他們，因為他們的人口正在經歷一場巨大的轉變，這就是為什麼他們不再是地球上人口最多的國家。

And you can see this happening throughout Scandinavia.

你可以看到這種情況在整個斯堪地那維亞地區發生。

Definitely in Russia, there's an argument which says that Putin made the huge attack on Ukraine because pretty soon they're just basically going to run out of young people to staff the army.

在俄羅斯絕對是這樣，有人認為普丁之所以對烏克蘭發動大規模攻擊，是因為很快他們就沒有年輕人可以來充實軍隊了。

I mean this, this transition is absolutely huge.

我的意思是，這個轉變是絕對巨大的。

But, but of course, every nation has different, you know, politics.

但是，但是當然，每個國家都有不同的，你知道，政治。

The minute we talk about, say France, the politics are out the window.

一旦我們談論，比如說法國，政治就拋諸腦後了。

Some countries have very strong national higher education ecosystems.

有些國家擁有非常強大的國家高等教育生態系統。

We don't have a national higher education ecosystem.

我們沒有國家級的高等教育生態系統。

You look at Latin America, you've got a long tradition of both combination of state funded and Catholic universities.

你看看拉丁美洲，他們有很長的傳統，結合了國家資助和天主教大學。

Just as a sideline in the U.S. i'm not sure about this globally, but in the U.S.

順帶一提，在美國，我不知道全球是不是這樣，但在美國，

catholic universities have been suffering a great deal, primarily because of the double whammy of childhood sex abuse scandals and decreasing religious belief in the United States.

天主教大學遭受了很大的苦，主要是因為童年性侵醜聞和美國宗教信仰下降的雙重打擊。

So a lot of Catholic universities I've talked to have said that they are instead focusing on social justice, which is part of their tradition.

所以我接觸過的許多天主教大學都說，他們現在正專注於社會正義，這也是他們傳統的一部分。

But it's different from saying they're Catholic universities.

但這跟說他們是天主教大學不一樣。

So I'd like to bring us to a discussion of data and algorithms and how that, you know, learning analytics is really, you know, reliant on data and algorithms and in terms of trying to improve educational outcomes.

所以我想把話題帶到數據和演算法的討論，以及學習分析如何真正依賴數據和演算法，來試圖改善教育成果。

So how do you think the use of data and algorithms in education is going to change in the next 10 years?

那麼，你認為未來十年，數據和演算法在教育上的使用會有什麼改變？

Well, there are, there are some things that look pretty stable and durable and some things that look pretty chaotic.

嗯，有些事情看起來相當穩定且持久，有些事情則看起來相當混亂。

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學習分析的未來：Bryan Alexander 專訪完整版！ (Learning Analytics Futures: Bryan Alexander – Full Interview)

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