Name: AI 崩潰的災難，比你想像的還要嚴重得多！ (The AI Collapse Is MUCH Worse Than You Think)
Uploaded: 2026-02-28T21:40:11.000Z
Duration: 15 min 25 s
Description: 【看影片學英語】數萬部 YouTube 影片，搭配英漢字典即點即查，輕鬆掌握單字發音與用法，長久累積看電影不必再看字幕。

And if you have any money in the markets whatsoever, you're going to want to hear this.

如果你手上有任何一塊錢在市場上，你絕對要聽聽這個。

Apparently the stock market is going to peak in October of 2026, and

據說股市將在 2026 年 10 月達到高峰，

then shortly after that, we're going to see a 40% decline.

然後不久之後，我們會看到下跌 40%。

Trillions of wealth is going to be wiped out in less than two years, and

數兆元的財富將在不到兩年內蒸發，

all of those safe mortgages will finally start falling into foreclosure.

而那些安全的房貸也終於會開始進入法拍。

Well, Citrini research just revealed what they believe is a realistic warning for our economy over these next few years.

嗯，Citrini research 剛公佈了他們認為對我們未來幾年經濟的實際警告。

而且我必須說，這真的很令人震驚。

Not just because it sounds dramatic, but because the logic is incredibly convincing.

不只是因為聽起來很戲劇化，而是因為它的邏輯非常令人信服。

That's why we need to talk about exactly what's happening, why some of the smartest people in the world believe that this has already begun to play out, how you could prepare today, and

這就是為什麼我們要來談談到底發生了什麼事，為什麼世界上一些最聰明的人相信這已經開始發生了，你今天可以如何準備，以及

whether or not this is something to be worried about.

Because I gotta say, the real risk isn't the market crash we see coming.

因為我得說，真正的風險並不是我們預見的市場崩盤。

It's that pressure builds quietly beneath the surface that nobody realizes until eventually something.

而是壓力在表面下悄悄累積，直到最後某個東西。

某個東西斷裂，大家才意識到。

Although, before we start, if you appreciate videos like this, where I've spent the entire day reading through dozens of articles like this, it would mean the world to me if you hit the like button or subscribed, if you haven't done that already.

不過，在我們開始之前，如果你喜歡這類影片，我花了一整天閱讀了數十篇像這樣的文章，如果你能按讚或訂閱（如果你還沒做的話），那對我來說意義重大。

Yes, this is probably my 900th time asking, and I am tired of it too.

是的，這可能是我第 900 次請求了，我自己也聽膩了。

But it does continue to help out the YouTube algorithm.

但這確實能持續幫助 YouTube 演算法。

And as a thank you for doing that, as promised, here's a picture of an ant.

而且為了感謝你這麼做，照承諾的，這裡有一張螞蟻的照片。

So thanks so much, and also a big thank you to Gemini for sponsoring this video.

所以非常感謝，也特別感謝 Gemini 贊助這支影片。

All right, so to bring you up to speed, all of this starts with the most controversial article that I have ever discussed, appropriately titled the 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis.

好的，為了讓你跟上進度，這一切都始於我討論過最富爭議的一篇文章，標題很貼切，叫做 2028 全球智慧危機。

So far, AI has helped push the stock market higher.

到目前為止，AI 已經幫助推升了股市。

Without it, we might already be in a recession.

如果沒有它，我們可能已經陷入衰退了。

And it's been one of the biggest drivers of growth across the entire economy.

而且它一直是整個經濟成長最大的驅動力之一。

What if it's all smoke and mirrors, designed to look good on paper while quietly extracting the wealth of everyday Americans?

萬一這一切都是煙霧彈，設計來讓紙面上看起來很漂亮，同時卻悄悄地榨取美國民眾的財富？

Well, that's the entire theory behind this paper, and it's quite interesting.

嗯，這就是這篇論文的全部理論，而且相當有趣。

The theory is that AI continues getting insanely good and extremely proficient.

這個理論是說，AI 會持續變得超級厲害、超級熟練。

All of a sudden, companies use it to replace their white collar workers like consultants, financial analysts, software engineers, the people who make up 50% of US employment and drive about 75% of all discretionary spending.

突然之間，公司就會用它來取代像是顧問、財務分析師、軟體工程師這些白領員工，他們佔了美國就業人口的一半，也帶動了約 75% 的可支配支出。

Well, those workers lose their jobs or see massive pay cuts.

嗯，這些員工就會失業，或是薪水大幅縮水。

They stop spending money, businesses see revenue decline.

他們就不再花錢，企業的營收就會下降。

This causes companies to invest even more in AI to cut their costs further.

這會導致公司投入更多 AI 來進一步降低成本。

More layoffs, repeat, we see less spending from workers and then it just spirals.

更多裁員，然後重複這個循環，我們看到員工的消費減少，然後就這樣不斷惡化下去。

So in terms of how this plays out and whether or not this could actually happen in the next few years, Citrini breaks it down into five phases, with the first being the software collapse.

所以，關於這一切會如何發展，以及這是否真的會在未來幾年發生，Citrini 將其分解為五個階段，第一個階段就是軟體崩潰。

At this point, AI coding gets so incredibly good that a single developer could replicate a mid market SaaS product in weeks.

在這個階段，AI 程式碼會變得超級厲害，一個開發者可以在幾週內複製一個中型 SaaS 產品。

So A, when a business is renewing a $500,000 annual software package, they'll start to ask themselves, what if we just built this ourselves to save the money?

所以，當一家公司要續訂一個每年 50 萬美元的軟體套裝時，他們會開始問自己，如果我們自己來做，是不是就能省下這筆錢？

This is going to start becoming even more apparent when we see phase two, Zero friction.

當我們看到第二階段「零摩擦」時，這一點會變得更加明顯。

Pretty soon AI agents will be able to handle everything.

很快地，AI 代理就能處理所有事情。

I'm talking shopping, insurance renewals, travel booking, tax prep, financial advice, even real estate transactions.

我說的是購物、保險續約、旅遊預訂、報稅、財務建議，甚至是房地產交易。

From that point onwards, commissions will be reduced from 2 1/2% down to under 1%.

從那時起，佣金將從 2.5% 降至 1% 以下。

And and agents will start routing payments through stablecoins instead of credit cards.

而且，代理人將開始透過穩定幣而不是信用卡來處理付款。

After all, why would a machine pay a 2 to 3% interchange fee when they could settle the transaction in seconds for a fraction of a penny?

畢竟，為什麼機器要支付 2% 到 3% 的交換費，而不是在幾秒鐘內以不到一分錢的成本完成交易？

This leads to phase three, the doom spiral.

這就進入了第三階段，「末日螺旋」。

This, unfortunately, according to them, is where things get really ugly.

不幸的是，根據他們的說法，這就是事情變得非常糟糕的時候。

Because displaced white collar workers don't just disappear.

因為被取代的白領勞工並不會就這樣消失。

Instead, the Salesforce manager making $180,000 loses his job and starts working for Uber at $45,000.

反之，年薪 18 萬美元的 Salesforce 經理失業了，開始以 4.5 萬美元的薪水為 Uber 工作。

From there, multiply that by hundreds of thousands of workers and all of a sudden you have a flood of highly qualified people entering the jobs market, competing with one another, pushing down wages for everybody.

從那裡開始，將這個數字乘以數十萬名員工，突然間，大量高素質人才湧入就業市場，彼此競爭，壓低了所有人的工資。

Like keep in mind the top 10% of earners drive more than 50% of all consumer spending in the US.

就像請記住，美國收入最高的 10% 人群貢獻了超過 50% 的總消費支出。

So when those people lose their jobs or see a 50% haircut in income, spending drops dramatically.

所以，當這些人失業或收入大幅縮水 50% 時，消費就會急劇下降。

That's why in Q2 of 2027, in this scenario, we are in a full blown recession.

這就是為什麼在這個情境下，我們會在 2027 年第二季陷入全面衰退。

And this means we'll see phase four, a private credit collapse.

這意味著我們將會看到第四階段，私人信貸崩潰。

Now for anyone who's not been following this, more than two and a half trillion dollars has been invested in software priced at valuations that assume that revenue never goes down.

現在，對於任何沒有關注這件事的人來說，超過 2.5 兆美元已經投資在軟體上，其估值假設營收永遠不會下降。

It was taken private for $10.2 billion backed by a $5 billion loan.

它以 102 億美元的價格被私人收購，其中 50 億美元是貸款。

However, once AI started replicating customer service without any humans, there's their entire business model started becoming obsolete.

然而，一旦 AI 開始複製客服功能而無需人類，他們的整個商業模式就開始變得過時。

These companies didn't raise money from private investors.

這些公司不是從私人投資者那裡籌集資金。

Instead, they bought life insurance companies to fund their deals.

相反地，他們收購了壽險公司來資助他們的交易。

So this impacts everyday retirement accounts, annuities, pensions, you name it, all wrapped their money into these deals that are now under pressure.

所以這會影響日常的退休帳戶、年金、終身俸，你說得出來的，所有這些資金都被捲入這些現在面臨壓力的交易中。

And if that continues and worsens, we'll finally see phase five.

如果情況持續惡化，我們終於會看到第五階段。

The the fact is, when white collar workers see a reduction of income or lose their job, they scale back.

事實是，當白領員工看到收入減少或失業時，他們就會縮減開支。

everyone has to sell at the exact same time, home prices begin to fall.

大家必須在同一時間賣房，房價就會開始下跌。

If they owe more on the home than what the home is worth, they end up going into foreclosure if they're not able to bridge the gap.

如果他們房子欠的錢比房子的價值還多，如果他們無法彌補差額，最終就會面臨法拍。

And if that sounds crazy, here's a line that really stuck out to me.

如果這聽起來很瘋狂，這有一句話真的讓我印象深刻。

2008 年的時候，這些貸款一開始就很有問題。

2028 年的時候，這些貸款一開始就沒問題。

The world just changed after the loans were written.

貸款寫好之後，世界就改變了。

Anyway, this scenario ends with the S&P 500 falling 38% to roughly 3,500, a level that we've not seen since before ChatGPT launched.

總之，這種情況的結局是 S&P 500 指數下跌 38%，來到大約 3,500 點，這是自從 ChatGPT 推出前我們就沒見過的水準。

所有主要都會區的房價都下跌了。

And the scariest part is that some of the world's smartest people already believe that some of this has begun to happen today.

最可怕的是，世界上一些最聰明的人已經相信，這些情況中的一些已經開始發生了。

So in terms of what this means for you and how this might realistically play out, here's what you came for.

所以，這對你意味著什麼，以及這可能會如何實際發展，這就是你想要的。

Although before we go into that, I gotta say it's worth zooming out and taking a look at what's happening throughout the markets.

不過，在我們深入探討之前，我得說，值得拉遠一點，看看整個市場正在發生什麼事。

Because nothing moves in a straight line anymore.

因為現在沒有什麼是直線前進的了。

On top of that, your cash is losing purchasing power, prices are going up, and

而且，你的現金購買力正在下降，物價上漲，

if you don't take steps to get ahead of this, you're going to fall behind.

如果你不採取措施來領先這一切，你就會落後。

That's why I think everyone should at least be trying to optimize their everyday spending without changing their lifestyle or trying to outsmart the market.

這就是為什麼我認為每個人都應該至少試著優化日常開銷，而不改變生活方式或試圖打敗市場。

And one of the ways I do this is actually with their sponsor, the Gemini credit card.

我做到這一點的方法之一，實際上是透過他們的贊助商 Gemini 信用卡。

With this, instead of my spending just disappearing into the abyss, I'm able to earn cryptocurrency back on everyday purchases.

有了這張卡，我的消費不會消失於無形，我可以在日常消費中賺取加密貨幣回饋。

So I could build a small allocation anytime I spend money without even thinking about it.

所以，我可以在花錢時隨時建立一小筆配置，甚至不用去想它。

Or in this case, you could earn up to 4% back on transportation, 3% on dining, 2% on groceries, and

或者在這個例子中，你可以在交通上賺取高達 4% 的回饋，餐飲 3%，雜貨 2%，

1% on everything else with no annual fee.

以及其他所有消費 1%，而且沒有年費。

All you gotta do is swipe your card like you would normally and that's it.

你所要做的就是像平常一樣刷卡，就這樣。

Plus, it comes in six unique stainless steel colors.

而且，它還有六種獨特的鋼製顏色。

You can get black, silver, silver, rose, gold, bitcoin, Orange XRP or the brand new Solana Edition.

你可以選擇黑色、銀色、玫瑰金、金色、比特幣、Orange XRP，或是全新的 Solana 版本。

Even better, you can check out more information on rates and fees down below in the description or see if you're eligible with no impact to your credit score.

更棒的是，你可以在下方的說明欄查看更多關於利率和費用的資訊，或者看看你是否符合資格，而且不會影響你的信用分數。

Without exaggeration, I've been using this card now for over a year and I've been able to earn Bitcoin back on everyday spending, like going to the gas station or going out to a restaurant or buying groceries.

毫不誇張地說，我已經用這張卡一年多了，而且我能在日常消費中賺取比特幣回饋，像是去加油站、去餐廳吃飯或買雜貨。

And if Bitcoin isn't your thing, you can also select for more than 50 other cryptocurrencies that you could switch to at any time.

如果比特幣不是你的菜，你也可以選擇超過 50 種其他加密貨幣，隨時都可以切換。

So so if you'd like to instantly earn Bitcoin or select from dozens of other cryptocurrencies, head to gemini.com graham or click the link down below in the description to learn more and sign up today.

所以，如果你想立即賺取比特幣或從數十種其他加密貨幣中選擇，請前往 gemini.com graham 或點擊下方說明欄的連結瞭解更多並立即註冊。

Again, that is gemini.com Graham with the link down below.

再說一次，網址是 gemini.com Graham，連結就在下方。

All right, now before we go over the counter arguments to this entire doomsday scenario and what you could do about it, I want to be fair because there are real data points today that suggest that all of this could actually be happening.

好的，在我們討論這個末日情境的所有反駁論點以及你可以怎麼做之前，我想公平地說，今天確實有一些數據點顯示這一切都可能真的發生。

For example, the CEO of Anthropic just went on record as saying that AI could wipe out nearly half of all entry level white collar jobs.

例如，Anthropic 的執行長就公開表示，AI 可能會消滅近一半的入門級白領工作。