Name: "I Just Turned $12 Into $200,000!" – WTF Is Happening To Investing?!
Uploaded: 2026-02-24T21:32:49.000Z
Duration: 17 min 11 s

Heads, you get to double your money, and tails, you lose everything.

Betting everything on a coin flip is obviously insane.

把所有籌碼壓在拋硬幣上，這當然很瘋狂

But a growing number of people are doing the financial equivalent of this every single day.

但越來越多人每天都在做財務上的相同事情

Not because they're dumb, but because playing it safe basically guarantees you fall behind.

不是因為他們笨，而是因為求穩，基本上就等於落後

This is why more and more young people aren't investing anymore.

這就是為什麼越來越多年輕人不再投資了

In fact, I just read a story about how one trader uses this strategy to pay his rent every month.

其實，我最近讀到一個故事，說有個交易員靠這個策略每個月付房租。

Others turn $12 into $100,000 or claim they've cracked a system that Wall street doesn't want you to know about.

其他人把 12 塊變成 10 萬美元，或是宣稱他們破解了一個華爾街不想讓你知的系統。

So with prediction markets now replacing investing for an entire generation, we need to talk about exactly what's going on.

所以，既然預測市場正在取代投資，成為一整代的選擇，我們就得好好聊聊到底發生了什麼事。

Why a tiny group is making millions if there's a strategy that actually works, and

為什麼一小群人能賺進數百萬，如果真的有管用的策略的話，而且

how the biggest mistake happens before money even touches the market.

為什麼在錢還沒進場前，就犯下了最大的錯誤。

Because once you're able to see this, you.

因為一旦你看懂了這一點，你。

You'll realize why 94% of people end up losing money.

你就會明白為什麼 94% 的人最後會賠錢。

Although, before we start, in the spirit of this video, I'll make you a deal.

不過，在我們開始之前，為了呼應這個影片的精神，我跟你做個交易。

And as a thank you for doing that, here's a picture of a koala.

另外，感謝你這麼做，這裡有一張無尾熊的照片。

And also, big thank you to surfshark VPN for sponsoring this video.

另外，也要非常感謝 Surfshark VPN 贊助這個影片。

All right, so before we talk strategy and why some people lose everything, we need to talk about the gambling loophole.

好了，在我們談論策略以及為什麼有些人會輸光之前，我們得先聊聊賭博的漏洞。

Legally, there's a very distinct difference between gambling and pretty prediction markets.

在法律上，賭博和預測市場有非常明確的區別。

And this new classification has opened up a brand new world where people can now invest based on who will win the Oscar for Best Picture if Trump says autism during the State of the Union, or I kid you not, if Juul will relaunch its mint flavor.

而這個新的分類開啟了一個全新的世界，人們現在可以根據誰會贏得奧斯卡最佳影片獎、川普在國情諮文時是否會說出「自閉症」，或者我沒騙你，Juul 是否會重新推出薄荷口味來投資。

Well, unlike gambling, which is a randomized payout structure fixed by the house, prediction markets operate under the premise of offering events based futures contracts, which provides a marketplace for two people to speculate on which event is more likely to occur.

嗯，跟賭博不同，賭博是由莊家固定隨機支付結構，而預測市場的運作前提是提供基於事件的期貨合約，為兩個人提供一個市場，用來推測哪個事件更有可能發生。

The thinking here is that because the value of the contracts moves with market sentiment, and

這裡的想法是，因為合約的價值會隨著市場情緒波動，而且

there's no fixed house edge, you're not betting against a casino.

沒有固定的莊家優勢，你不是在跟賭場對賭。

You're just trading against people who think that they know more than you do.

你只是在跟那些認為自己比你懂得多的人交易。

And at the end of the day, the entire purpose is to provide a financial hedge in the event a specific outcome actually happens.

說到底，整個目的就是在特定結果真的發生時，提供一個財務對沖。

For example, let's just say you wash cars for a living and you make no money anytime there's bad weather.

舉個例子，假設你靠洗車維生，只要天氣不好你就賺不到錢。

In this case, you could hedge your income by purchasing 2 cent contracts on the slim chance of snow.

在這種情況下，你可以買進兩分錢的合約來對沖你的收入，即使下雪的機會渺茫。

That way, if it doesn't snow, your business operates normally and you lose a small investment.

這樣一來，如果沒下雪，你的生意就正常營運，你只損失一小筆投資。

But if it does snow, you get a 50x return which is more than enough to offset your loss of income from washing cars.

但如果真的下雪了，你就能獲得 50 倍的回報，這足以彌補你洗車收入的損失。

Now apply that thinking towards any financial derivative in existence and you have prediction markets that are basically just gambling under the disguise of being event space futures contracts.

現在把這個想法套用在任何金融衍生性商品上，你就會發現預測市場基本上就是一種賭博，只是披著事件期貨合約的外衣。

Of course, in their defense call she responded by saying that people used to say grain futures were gambling before the Supreme Court approved them and said that they were ultimately needed for a hedging purposes.

當然，她辯護時回應說，以前人們也說穀物期貨是賭博，直到最高法院準許了它們，並說它們最終是為了避險目的而需要的。

But let's be real, most people aren't doing that.

但說實在的，大多數人並不是這樣做的。

Instead, you have traders that have turned 1,000 into $200,000 in just a few months, there are people you could supposedly follow who have a high success rate, and

取而代之的是，你看到有交易者在短短幾個月內將 1,000 美元變成 20 萬美元，有些人據說你可以關注他們，他們成功率很高，而且

others just buy the events with 99% probability to consistently profit.

其他人只是購買機率為 99% 的事件來穩定獲利。

However, as nice as that sounds, here's the reality.

然而，聽起來雖然很美好，但現實是這樣的。

One report allegedly shows that Kalshi users lose money even faster than sports gamblers, and

一份報導據稱顯示，Kalshi 上的用戶虧損的速度比體育賭徒還快，而且

once I started digging deeper, I realized that this was just the very beginning.

當我開始深入研究時，我意識到這才只是個開始。

So if you want to hear something crazy, let's talk about 2026 investing.

所以，如果你想聽點瘋狂的事，我們來聊聊 2026 年的投資。

Even though it sounds like these platforms should be used as a portfolio hedge, that's not what's happening.

儘管聽起來這些平臺應該被用作投資組合的避險工具，但實際上並非如此。

Instead, retail traders are pulling back from the stock market because it feels like a losing game.

不過，散戶投資人卻從股市退出了，因為感覺就像一場輸定的遊戲。

So instead of competing in a system that feels impossible to beat, more people are turning to all or nothing bets where it seems more transparent and easy to understand even if the odds aren't in their favor.

所以，與其在一個感覺不可能贏的系統裡競爭，越來越多人轉向了「全有或全無」的賭注，因為那樣看起來更透明、更容易理解，即使勝算不在他們這邊。

For example, surveys found that many young traders would rather bet on things like the Grammy winners or a pot TikTok ban than analyze a PE ratio.

舉例來說，調查發現許多年輕交易員寧願去賭葛萊美獎得主或 TikTok 是否會被禁，也不願去分析本益比。

Because at least with the Grammy winners, it's something they understand and comprehend, unlike a financial statement that they were never taught to read.

因為至少在葛萊美獎得主這方面，是他們理解和懂的東西，不像財務報表，他們從來沒學過怎麼看。

On top of that, in terms of where they're getting this money, as it turns out, betting dollars largely came from funds previously used for savings and long term investments, and

此外，關於他們從哪裡來的錢，結果發現，賭博的錢大部分來自原本用於儲蓄和長期投資的資金，而且

these numbers were way worse than I expected.

這些數字比我預期的還要糟得多。

For every $1 a household spent on betting, it put $2 less into investment accounts, with net investments falling by 14%.

每當一個家庭在賭博上花費 1 美元，就會減少 2 美元投入投資帳戶，淨投資額下降了 14%。

Now, the reason for this is pretty simple.

現在，這樣做的原因其實很簡單。

According to a Federal Reserve report, young adults are already a lot less likely to have retirement accounts or really any savings at all.

根據聯邦準備理事會的一份報告，年輕人本來就比較不可能擁有退休帳戶，或者說根本沒有任何儲蓄。

So with almost nothing to lose, high upside, low probability bets could start to feel rational in a world of perceived scarcity, regardless of how much money they stand to lose.

所以，在幾乎沒有東西可以輸的情況下，高風險、低機率的賭注，在這個感覺資源匱乏的世界裡，可能會讓人覺得是理性的選擇，不管他們實際上會損失多少錢。

To give you these exact numbers, 70% of polymarket traders lost money, while only 0.04% captured 70% of the profits.

為了提供這些確切的數字，70% 的 Polymarket 交易者賠錢，只有 0.04% 的人賺取了 70% 的利潤。

And even though Kalshi doesn't care whether you win or lose, they do get a small piece of trading volume, which has recently amounted to over a billion dollars in a single day.

而且，雖然 Kalshi 並不在乎你輸贏，但他們確實能從交易量中分到一小杯羹，最近一天就超過了十億美元。

This is why one analysis believes that the bottom quarter of Kalshi users lost about 28 cents of every dollar they bet, compared with about 11 cents per dollar on other online gambling sites.

這也是為什麼有一份分析認為，Kalshi 用戶中最低的四分之一，每賭一塊錢大約損失 28 美分，而其他線上賭博網站大約損失 11 美分。

Obviously, Kalsheet responded to this, calling the report extortion and flat out wrong.

顯然，Kalsheet 對此做出了回應，稱這份報告是勒索，而且完全錯誤。

But the analyst in question went on record to say that we stand for transparency, we stand for helping betters traders understand their activity across the platform, and

但該分析師公開表示，我們主張透明，我們主張幫助投注者瞭解他們在平臺上的活動，而且

無論如何，我們都支持我們的數據。

It's evident that when the same phone that holds a brokerage app also has events based contract trading, the mental barrier between investing and gambling pretty much evaporates into thin air.

很明顯，當一個同時擁有券商應用程式的電話，也提供基於事件的合約交易時，投資和賭博之間的心理界線幾乎就煙消雲散了。

And when you combine that with the fact that people are losing faith in the traditional investing system, compounding feels too slow and homeownership is out of reach.

再加上人們對傳統投資體系失去信心，複利感覺太慢，而且買房遙不可及。

High risk bets just start becoming more common.

高風險的賭注就變得越來越普遍。

And that's the thing that almost no one's talking about.

這也是幾乎沒有人在談論的事情。

So in terms of which traders are actually making money from this, if there's a system that works, and

所以就實際賺到錢的交易者來說，如果有一個系統有效，而且

how some traders consistently avoid losing money, here's where things get interesting.

有些交易者是如何持續避免虧損的，這就變得很有趣了。

Because once you see the data, you'll realize the winners are not who you think they are, and

因為一旦你看到數據，你就會發現贏家並不是你認為的那種人，而且

almost all of these are predetermined before you even place a bet.

幾乎所有這些都是在你下注之前就已經決定好了。

However, before we go into that, I find it interesting that some of the biggest risks right now aren't always shown on a chart.

不過，在我們深入探討之前，我發現一個有趣的現象是，現在一些最大的風險並不是總在圖表上顯示出來。

Some of them are invisible, like how much of your online activity is being tracked, sold or exposed, while everyone is distracted by price movements.

有些風險是看不見的，例如你的線上活動有多少被追蹤、販售或洩露，而大家卻被價格波動分散了注意力。

That is why I treat privacy the same way as I treat investing.

這也是為什麼我對待隱私的方式和我對待投資的方式一樣。

Minimize the downside, don't overcomplicate it, and automate the boring stuff.

將下檔風險降到最低，不要過度複雜化，並自動化無聊的事情。

This mindset is exactly why I use our sponsor Surfshark VPN all the time.

這種心態正是我為何總是使用我們的贊助商 Surfshark VPN 的原因。

For those unaware, they help keep your online activity secure and anonymous, whether you're tracking prices, logging into bank accounts or or just trying to browse the Internet without them knowing every detail of your personal information.

對於不熟悉的人來說，他們能幫助確保你的線上活動安全且匿名，無論你是追蹤價格、登入銀行帳戶，或是隻是想瀏覽網路而不讓他們知道你個人資訊的每一個細節。

Surfshark VPN is able to do this by encrypting your online data, protecting your personal information, masking your IP address, and

Surfshark VPN 透過加密你的線上資料、保護你的個人資訊、隱藏你的 IP 位址，並

preventing hackers from identifying your city, country and download history or I guess put more simply, a VPN is able to do this by swapping the real location of your device with a new one, giving you the ability to virtually travel anywhere around the world.

能防止駭客偵測到你的城市、國家和下載紀錄，或者更簡單地說，VPN 透過將你裝置的實際位置替換成新的位置來做到這點，讓你能夠虛擬地環遊世界。

Or I'm able to change locations to watch streaming shows that are only available in select countries.

或者我可以更改地點，觀看僅在特定國家/地區提供的串流節目。

Even better, Surfshark's CleanWeb feature also blocks ads, trackers, malware and phishing attempts, allowing you to surf the web safely.

更棒的是，Surfshark 的 CleanWeb 功能還能阻擋廣告、追蹤器、惡意軟體和網路釣魚嘗試，讓你安全地上網。

Plus, they don't track, store or monitor what you do online.

此外，他們不會追蹤、儲存或監控你在線上的活動。

This means there's no connection or activity logs so that you could rest assured your activity is private.

這表示沒有連線或活動紀錄，所以你可以放心你的活動是私密的。

Without exaggeration, there's never a reason not to use a VPN anytime you're online, which is pretty much all the time.

毫不誇張地說，你每次上網時，幾乎都是這樣，所以沒有理由不使用 VPN。

So if you want to get started, check out surfshark.com graham and use the code Graham at checkout to get an extra four months for free.

所以如果你想開始使用，請前往 surfshark.com graham，並在結帳時使用代碼 Graham，即可額外獲得四個月的免費使用。

They also have a 30 day money back guarantee, so there's no risk to try it out and just see what you think.

他們還有一個 30 天退款保證，所以試用看看沒有風險，看看你的想法。

Again, the link is down below in the description to get started.

再次強調，連結就在下方的說明中，方便你開始使用。

接著，我們就回到影片內容吧。

All right, now, before we talk about exactly who's making a fortune from prediction markets and which investors have the highest likelihood of making money, we need to talk about the gamification of investing.

好的，在我們討論究竟是誰從預測市場賺大錢，以及哪些投資人最有可能賺到錢之前，我們需要談談投資的遊戲化。

What's really interesting is that a few years ago, Robinhood was facing legal scrutiny for gamifying investing.

很有趣的是，幾年前 Robinhood 因為投資遊戲化而面臨法律審查。

And and according to legal filings, as well as interviews with current and former employees, they say that the app was built on what appears to be a Silicon Valley playbook of behavioral nudges and push notifications to draw investors towards risky trading, which happens to make Robinhood a lot of money.

根據法律文件以及現任和前任員工的訪談，他們表示這個 App 是根據矽谷的行為推動和推播通知的劇本打造的，目的是吸引投資人進行高風險交易，而這正好讓 Robinhood 賺進大把鈔票。

As proof of this, in the first three months of 2020, Robinhood users traded nine times as many shares as E trade customers and 40 times as many shares as Charles Schwab customers.

作為證明，在 2020 年的第一季，Robinhood 使用者交易的股票數量是 E trade 客戶的九倍，是 Charles Schwab 客戶的 40 倍。

They also bought and sold 88 times as many options contracts relative to the average account size.

相較於平均帳戶規模，他們買賣的選擇權合約數量也是 88 倍。

Now, in Robinhood's defense, they were the first brokerage out there to make investing fun.

當然，為 Robinhood 辯護的話，他們是第一家讓投資變得有趣的券商。

They got a lot of people interested in investing who otherwise wouldn't have cared, and

他們讓許多原本不在乎投資的人對投資產生興趣，而且

they were able to reduce the trading fees down to zero.

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"I Just Turned $12 Into $200,000!" – WTF Is Happening To Investing?!

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