Name: 日本大翻身！「失落的二十年」真的要結束了嗎？ (Japan’s Comeback: Why the “Lost Decades” May Finally Be Ending)
Uploaded: 2026-02-22T21:38:24.000Z
Duration: 12 min 11 s

That's a Japanese term meaning falling behind.

這是一個日文詞，意思是落後。

In 1980s, Japanese industry was the envy of the world in a variety of sectors such as automotive, electronics and steel.

在 1980 年代，日本的汽車、電子和鋼鐵等產業，是全世界稱羨的對象。

As a result, asset values went up, particularly here in Tokyo, where real estate values went sky high, supported by patient capital that did not demand a lot of returns.

結果，資產價值上漲，尤其是在東京，房地產價值飆升，背後有著耐心資本支持，這些資本並不要求高報酬。

The 1990s, though, saw that asset bubble burst.

然而，到了 1990 年代，資產保麗龍破裂了。

And when the Japanese government and Japanese banks did not step in aggressively, they took what was a lost decade and turned it into a lost three decades.

當日本政府和日本銀行沒有積極介入時，他們將原本的失去的十年，變成了失去的三十年。

Most people's expectation of Japan or business mindset of Japan is 30 years of stagnation.

大多數人對日本的期待，或是日本的商業思維，就是長達 30 年的停滯。

I think, you know, the recall the lost ages during decades, and

我想，大家應該還記得過去幾十年的黃金時期，

we do not have a substantial growth in Japan.

我們在日本沒有實質性的成長。

Japan faced the deflation for very, very long time.

Japan has been suffering from deflation for more than two decades.

In the late 80s, Japan's economy grew by as much as 6.7% a year, only to have that growth plummet for most of the next 30 years, hovering between 0 and 2% and contracting during the great financial crisis and the COVID pandemic, relegating what had been the third largest economy in the world to number four.

八零年代末期，日本經濟年成長率高達 6.7%，但接下來的三十年，成長率卻驟降，徘徊在 0% 到 2% 之間，並在金融海嘯和 COVID 疫情期間出現萎縮，讓原本世界第三大經濟體跌至第四。

As Germany surged past, the Nikkei stock market went 3:34 years without setting new highs.

隨著德國超越日本，日經股市指數長達 30 年未創新高。

Japanese government bond yields turned negative and stayed there for years.

日本政府債券殖利率轉為負值，並維持了好幾年。

But all that could now be changing as Japan emerges from those lost decades.

但隨著日本走出失去的十年，這一切可能都將改變。

今天在東京真是個美好的一天。

Mark Rowan is CEO of Apollo Global Management.

Mark Rowan 是 Apollo Global Management 的執行長。

And holding on to your cash or leaving your money into JGBs for the past 30 years has been fine because there's been no inflation.

過去三十年來，持有現金或將資金存放在日本政府債券中都沒問題，因為沒有通貨膨脹。

All of a sudden you have closer to 3% inflation, you have interest rates up for the first time, and

突然之間，通貨膨脹率接近 3%，利率也首次上升，

that savings is going to be deployed productively.

And now some of it has to go toward retirement.

現在其中一部分必須用於退休。

They will want better solutions for retirement, but

他們會想要更好的退休解決方案，但

some of it is just going to keep up with purchase price and purchasing power.

其中一部分只是為了跟上購買價格和購買力。

I think about what's happening in Japan and in Japan, they're going through generational change.

我想到日本正在發生的事，在日本，他們正在經歷世代變革。

And it's generational change in corporate governance.

It's in interest rates, it's in government policy.

這體現在利率上，也體現在政府政策上。

And in many ways they are the first of the Western democracies to face real aging retirement and high levels of government debt.

在許多方面，他們是西方民主國家中第一個面臨真正高齡化退休和高額政府債務的國家。

And what's happening here is totally different than people's expectation because most people's expectation of Japan or business mindset of Japan is 30 years of stagnation.

這裡發生的事情完全出乎人們的意料，因為大多數人對日本或日本的商業思維的預期是長達 30 年的停滯。

Today the thing that got things going again for Japan was ironically adversity.

ironic的是，讓日本重振旗鼓的，正是逆境。

As supply chains came under stress from the COVID shutdown.

由於 COVID 封鎖導致供應鏈承受壓力。

And a war in Ukraine put pressure on energy prices, a big problem for a country dependent on oil from abroad.

俄烏戰爭也對能源價格造成壓力，這對一個依賴國外石油的國家來說是個大問題。

With the supply chain breakdown, corporate has executes to transfer the price to the retail.

隨著供應鏈斷裂，企業不得不將價格轉嫁給零售商。

So now the the CPI started to suddenly, which has been 01 negative for a very long time, suddenly went up to almost 3%.

所以現在消費者物價指數開始突然上漲，這在很長一段時間內都是負的，現在突然升到了將近 3%。

如果她能達到第三名，那就很厲害了。

Agwaita is head of Asia Pacific for Apollo.

Agwaita 是 Apollo 的亞太區負責人。

So with the deflational environment, cash has been the king.

所以在通貨緊縮的環境下，現金為王。

But with the inflation at the close to 3%, cash is not the right assets to own.

不過現在通膨接近 3%，現金就不是適合持有的資產了。

實際上，它是最不該持有的資產。

So that has to put the pressure on a lot of people to think about things differently.

所以這一定會給很多人壓力，讓他們必須換個方式思考。

Even before the return of inflation, those responsible for Japanese markets were thinking differently, starting with Prime Minister Abe's call for market reform back in 2015.

甚至在通膨重現之前，負責日本市場的人們就已經在換個方式思考了，從安倍首相在 2015 年呼籲市場改革開始。

And it's true that for maybe a good decade, Japan did struggle in finding its way out of that banking crisis.

而且確實，日本可能花了好幾年才找到走出銀行危機的方法。

Maria Solis is director of the center for Asia Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution and author of Japan's Quiet Leadership.

Maria Solis 是 Brookings Institution 亞洲政策研究中心的主任，也是《Japan's Quiet Leadership》的作者。

But the fact is that we have overused the image of the last decades because this has not been a period where Japan has stood still and people refer to this period as 30 years.

但事實是，我們過度使用了「過去幾十年」這個說法，因為這段時間日本並非停滯不前，人們稱這段時期為 30 年。

And a lot has happened in the economy in the politics and international projection of Japan that actually shows that under currents of change have repositioned where Japan stands today.

而且日本的經濟、政治和國際影響力發生了很多事，實際上顯示了變革的暗流已經重新定位了日本今天的地位。

Some areas actually there was a lot of progress.

I think in the area of corporate governance, you do see important changes there.

我認為在公司治理方面，你確實看到了重要的改變。

I also believe that the notion of womenomics idea that Japan needed to create conditions for women not to have to choose between a career and a family raising a family.

我也認為，日本需要創造條件讓女性不必在事業和家庭之間做選擇的「女性經濟學」這個概念。

這些也都是非常、非常正面的。

So much so that Japan actually has a very high level of female labor participation.

日本女性勞動參與率非常高，就是因為這樣。

As much as Prime Minister Abe may have laid the groundwork for reform, the state of the economy did not demand the changes he wanted for that.

儘管安倍首相為改革奠定了基礎，但當時的經濟狀況並未要求他想要的改變。

他們需要 3% 的通貨膨脹才能啟動。

It has changed the politics, it has changed the main economic challenges that the country faces.

這改變了政治，也改變了國家面臨的主要經濟挑戰。

And I think in many ways it has redirected areas where reforms, reform is necessary now inflation has returned and there's a new prime minister in town, one who's just won a landslide victory and seeks to take Abenomics reform to a new level.

我認為在許多方面，這重新導向了需要改革的領域，現在通膨又回來了，而且新首相上任，他剛贏得了壓倒性的勝利，並尋求將安倍經濟學改革提升到新的水準。

So many significant changes are in the Japanese not only Japanese market, but also Japanese society.

日本不僅在市場，也在社會上發生了許多重大的改變。

Hiromi Yamaji is group CEO of the Japan Exchange Group which oversees the Tokyo and Osaka stock exchanges.

Hiromi Yamaji 是日本交易所集團的集團執行長，該集團負責管理東京和大阪證券交易所。

What was the role of government, the Japanese government in the reforms?

政府，也就是日本政府，在這些改革中扮演了什麼角色？

I think, you know, since the Prime Minister Abe supported our governance reform back in 2015, I think all the successors of Mr.

我想，自從安倍首相在2015年支持我們的公司治理改革以來，所有安倍先生的繼任者，像是菅先生、岸田先生、石破先生，以及現任的高市女士，

Abe, like Mr. Suga, Mr. Kishida, Mr. Ishiba and the current Ms.

他們都非常支持公司治理改革，因為他們都深信，私人企業的成長對整個日本經濟的成長至關重要。

Takaichi, all of them were quite big supporter of governance reform because all of them were convinced that growth of the private sector is essential for the growth of entire Japanese economy.

自從2021年接管日本交易所集團以來，山路女士推動了一系列改革，鼓勵日本企業提高獲利能力和問責制。

Since taking over the TSE in 2021, Yamagi has implemented a series of reforms to encourage Japanese companies to become more profitable and more accountable.

您對市場的改革包含許多面向，像是股價淨值比以及股權互持和獨立董事。

Your reforms of the markets has various aspects to it including price to book ratio and interlocking ownership of equity and independent directors.

我認為是改變企業管理階層的思維模式。

I think to transform the mindset of the management of the companies.

這非常重要，而且可能是最具挑戰性的部分。

That's very important and also probably the most challenging thing.

而股價淨值比（PBR）只是個財務指標，用來衡量我們進展了多少。

And PBR is just kind of a financial indicator to just gauge how much you progressed.

But I think a fundamental challenge is to transform the mindset of the management.

但我認為一個根本性的挑戰是改變管理階層的思維模式。

Not all minds are willing to be transformed.

並不是所有的腦袋都願意被改變。

Have you had some management changes in order to respond to the.

你們有進行一些管理層的變動來應對嗎？

Well, I think, you know, at least once a year we've analyzed the current situation of the Japanese market or Japanese companies and we are not the entity to assess the progress.

嗯，我認為，你知道的，至少一年一次我們會分析日本市場或日本公司的現況，而我們不是評估進展的單位。

The global investors is the, you know, the people who assess how much progress we've made.

全球投資人才是，你知道的，評估我們進展了多少的人。

The most recent one, we did a analysis of a current situation December last year Based upon the 400 global investors domestic and overseas.

最近一次，我們在去年十二月，根據國內外四百位全球投資人，對現況進行了分析。

If the markets are any judge, Yamagi's efforts are bearing fruit.

如果市場能有所判斷，Yamagi 的努力正在開花結果。

Last year was a record high more than we have 5,100 Mondays and the total amount was 35 trillion yen.

去年創下新高，超過五千一百次，總金額達三兆日圓。

And that means that the buyer side seeking for say more growth or Asian needs for growth and the seller side is trying to reorganize their business portfolio of Tokyo Stock Exchange pushing the corporate to create more efficiency in capital usage for corporates and ROE has been very, very low.

這意味著買方追求更多成長，亞洲也需要成長，而賣方則試圖重整他們的業務組合，東京證券交易所推動企業提高資本使用效率，而股東權益報酬率（ROE）一直非常非常低。

And more than 50% of the company listed in Japan has been trading below the book value.

而且日本有超過 50% 的上市公司股價低於帳面價值。

So they are pushing for all capital efficiency and they need to explain the reason why they trading below the book.

所以他們正在推動所有資本效率，並且需要解釋股價為何低於帳面價值的原因。

The Japanese push for higher returns in response to reflation comes against the backdrop of a long term challenge that's increasingly common in major economies around the world.

日本為了應對通貨再膨脹而推動提高報酬率，這是在全球主要經濟體日益普遍的長期挑戰的背景下進行的。

Need a rapidly Aging workforce population between age 14 to 65 hit the peak in 1990.

需要一個快速老化的勞動力人口，14 到 65 歲的人口在 1990 年達到高峰。

And since then, because society started aging, people spend less.

從那時起，因為社會開始老化，人們花費減少。

So always demand shrink faster than supply.

所以需求總是比供給萎縮得更快。

So the country faces long term deflation and low growth.

是以，國家面臨長期的通貨緊縮和低成長。

I think we're looking at things that are structural that are going to take place over the next five to 10 years.

我認為我們正在看到一些結構性的問題，這些問題將在未來五到十年內發生。

The need for Japan to provide for its aging population and to deal with its aging population.

日本需要為其高齡人口提供支持，並處理其高齡人口的問題。

The need for Japan to finance what it needs to finance and the opportunity that Japan has.

日本需要資金來支應所需，以及日本擁有的機會。

Japan responded to the challenges of its aging workforce by adding workers from groups that had been on the sidelines.

日本透過增加原本被排除在外的勞動人口，來應對勞動力老化帶來的挑戰。

Well, this is clearly one of the most serious challenges because the sheer drop in the level of a population, the absolute numbers, but

這顯然是最嚴峻的挑戰之一，因為人口數量驟減，絕對數字，

The other one is of course to bring in women into the workforce, to bring in the elderly, who in Japan tend to be still very active, and

另一項當然是讓女性加入勞動市場，讓長者，在日本他們通常都還很有活力，

to make sure that you can, as much as possible, maximize labor participation.

並且盡可能地最大化勞動參與率。

But there is a limit to how many women, elderly and foreign workers Japan can bring into the workforce.

但日本能引進多少女性、長者和外籍勞工進入勞動市場，是有極限的。

What does reform of capital markets do to help that problem?

資本市場改革又能如何幫助解決這個問題？

I think, you know, the corporate governance reform said that we would like to see more active female workers in the workforce and also more senior persons are working freely in Japan now.

我認為，公司治理改革表示我們希望看到更多女性活躍於職場，在日本現在也有更多長者能自由工作。