Name: Groundhog Day 預言大考驗！牠們真的能預測春天嗎？ (The Odds: Will the groundhogs get it right?)
Uploaded: 2026-02-04T17:12:19.000Z
Duration: 3 min 46 s

There's almost no story that I disdain more than Groundhog Day.

幾乎沒有哪個故事比 Groundhog Day 更讓我討厭了。

I think it's usually an insult to our intelligence and a waste of our time.

我認為這通常是對我們智商的侮辱，也是浪費我們時間。

However, today is the singular exception because we have a groundbreaking way to look at these rodents and what they're saying.

不過，今天有個非常特別的例外，因為我們有種劃時代的新方法來看待這些齧齒動物和牠們說的話。

With us now, CNN chief Data analyst Harry and.

現在跟我們在一起的是 CNN 資料分析師 Harry。

I don't even know if, like, it sees a shadow of literate.

我甚至不知道牠們有沒有看到什麼「書卷氣」的影子。

I mean, I don't even know what that means.

我的意思是，我根本不知道那是什麼意思。

And, you know, there's this whole idea of pucks atoni.

而且，你知道的，還有這個關於普克蘇塔尼的說法。

It turns out there are a ton of rodents out there who are predicting the winter or the spring.

原來有很多齧齒動物都在預測冬天或春天。

We got Staten Island Chuck here in New York.

我們這裡有紐約的史泰登島的查克。

No, we've got General Beauregard Lee down in the great state of Georgia.

我們這裡還有喬治亞州的李博格將軍。

Later today, we will, in fact, get Groundhog Sam Champion out on Long island.

今天晚些時候，我們會有長島的土撥鼠山姆·冠軍。

And we will also have Groundhog Harry, my namesake.

我們還會有我的名字的土撥鼠哈洛。

That's actually Harold Ramis out in Chicago, Illinois.

The rodents are, in fact, united on this.

We are going to see six more weeks of winter according to at least these rodents.

根據至少這些土撥鼠的說法，我們還會再有六週的冬天。

我從來不知道他是一隻土撥鼠。

Of these groundhogs, who does the best job predicting?

這些土撥鼠裡，誰的預測做得最好？

Okay, so I think Punxsutawney Phil has been getting away with groundhog murder.

好的，所以我覺得普克蘇塔尼的菲爾一直以來都靠著土撥鼠的預測矇混過關。

It turns out his prediction, his accuracy rate ain't too hot to trot.

他的預測，他的準確率其實不太行。

看看這個土撥鼠的預測準確率。

It turns out that the two best groundhogs, if you're interested in predicting whether or not we're going to have six more weeks of winter, are General Beauregard lead down in the great state of Georgia.

原來，如果你想預測我們還會不會有六週的冬天，預測得最好的兩隻土撥鼠是喬治亞州偉大的李博格將軍。

And of course, Staten Island Chuck is actually number one.

然後當然，史泰登島的查克其實是第一名。

He has correctly forecasted whether or not we get six more weeks of winter.

他都準確預測了我們是否會再有六週的冬天。

And of course, at this point, he says that, in fact, we are not going to get an early spring.

然後當然，到目前為止，他說，事實上，我們不會有提早的春天。

Therefore, six more weeks of winter in Staten Island.

所以，史泰登島的冬天還要再持續六週。

Chuck has the hardest job because his life is always in peril.

查克的任務最艱鉅，因為他的生命隨時都有危險。

Let's talk about and this is the reason to do this segment.

我們來聊聊，這也是為什麼要做這個單元。

All right, so you've crunched some data here.

好的，所以你已經在這裡整理了一些數據。

What is your analysis of all this data suggest?

therefore we create an Entan's aggregate, a weighted average, Enton's weighted groundhog forecast.

所以我們就建立了一個 Entan 的總計，一個加權平均，Enton 的加權土撥鼠預測。

And I'm sorry to say, folks, this is why I got the minute on today.

抱歉各位，這就是我今天為何會被報導的原因。

We're looking for a long winter, six more weeks of winter.

我們預測將會是個漫長的冬天，再多六週的冬天。

Of course, it's good news for the audience that the groundhogs in fact are calling for six more weeks of winter, because otherwise I would have come out in my Mankini instead.

當然，土撥鼠們預測將會是漫長的冬天，這對觀眾來說是個好消息，因為不然我今天就會穿著我的曼基尼（Mankini）出來了。

If it was in early spring, that's qualify that as great news.

如果是預測春天提早到來，那就可以算是個好消息。

好的，所以我們現在是二月了。

You know, what are the chances that we're going to see a lot more snow?

你知道，我們看到更多雪的機率有多大？

Now, of course, the key question is, is it just going to be cold and dry or is it going to be cold and snowy?

現在，當然，關鍵問題是，它會只是冷又乾，還是會冷又下雪？

Well, according to the prediction markets, at least the chance that New York City gets over 6 inches of snow in the month of February, we're talking 51% chance.

嗯，根據預測市場，至少紐約市在二月有超過六英吋降雪的機率，我們說的是 51% 的機率。

所以，嘿，它可能只是冷又乾。

And that would actually be less if we only got 6 inches than the 8.8 inches that we average here in Central Park, New York City.

如果我們只得到六英吋，那其實比我們紐約市中央公園的平均 8.8 英吋還要少。

我們來看看他們下週末表現如何。

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Groundhog Day 預言大考驗！牠們真的能預測春天嗎？ (The Odds: Will the groundhogs get it right?)

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