Name: 歐洲為何準備讓美國經濟崩潰？必看重點！ (Why Europe is Preparing To Crash the US Economy - What You Need To Know)
Uploaded: 2026-02-03T18:21:56.000Z
Duration: 14 min 28 s

Europe is the largest investor in the United States.

It holds trillions of dollars of US Assets.

情態副詞

But recently, Europe has not been happy with the United States.

但最近，歐洲對美國感到不滿。

Which is why European countries are planning to coordinate to dump trillions of dollars of US Assets to force the United States to stop threatening Greenland and stop damaging the European economies.

這就是為什麼歐洲國家正計畫協調行動，拋售數兆美元的美國資產，以迫使美國停止威脅格陵蘭，並停止損害歐洲經濟。

European economies right now are in a dire situation, but

歐洲經濟目前處於危急狀態，但

with this move alone, they could catastrophically wipe out the entire US Economy.

單憑這一步，他們就能災難性地摧毀整個美國經濟。

They will cause a crisis that is way worse than 2008 financial crisis.

他們將引發一場比2008年金融危機嚴重得多的危機。

The 2008 financial crisis is going to look like a walk in the park.

2008年金融危機將顯得小巫見大巫。

That's why Donald Trump is warning European countries that if they dump US Assets, there is going to be big retaliation.

這就是為什麼唐納·川普警告歐洲國家，如果他們拋售美國資產，將會遭到嚴厲報復。

那麼，歐洲真的能讓美國破產嗎？

European countries are some of the largest holders of.

歐洲國家是其中最大的持有者之一。

The United Kingdom alone holds almost a trillion dollars of U.S. debt, followed by Belgium, Luxembourg, France, Ireland.

僅英國就持有近一兆美元的美國債務，接著是比利時、盧森堡、法國、愛爾蘭。

In total, EU and the United Kingdom own $3.6 trillion of U.S. treasuries.

總計，歐盟和英國持有 3.6 兆美元的美國國債。

而在市場上拋售如此大量的美國

treasuries in the market is going to have a devastating impact on the entire US Economy.

國債，將對整個美國經濟造成毀滅性的影響。

What determines the yields on the US Treasuries is demand and supply.

決定美國國債殖利率的是供需。

If there are so many people who want to buy US Debts, then the US Government can offer a very low yield.

如果有這麼多人想買美國債務，那麼美國政府就能提供非常低的殖利率。

But on the other side, if you have trillions of dollars of US Debt is being thrown into the market, while there isn't many people who want to buy it, suddenly the yields on the US Debt are going to substantially rise, which is going to cost the US Government hundreds of billions of dollars, if not trillions of dollars.

但另一方面，如果你有數兆美元的美國債務被拋入市場，而沒有多少人想買，美國債務的殖利率突然會大幅上漲，這將使美國政府付出數千億美元，甚至數兆美元的代價。

Since the total US debt is about to cross $40 trillion, a single percentage point is going to cost the US government 400 billion do.

由於美國總債務即將突破 40 兆美元，一個百分點的增長就將使美國政府付出 4000 億美元。

If it's going to be more than a single percentage point, you can actually do the math.

如果增長超過一個百分點，你就可以自己算算看。

But right now, it's even more important for the United States to have somebody who will continue buying US Debt because the US Debt has crossed the point of no return and it's substantially growing every single year.

但現在，美國更需要有人持續買進美國債務，因為美國債務已經到了無法回頭的地步，而且每年都在大幅增加。

Just within the next couple of years, it's expected to cross $50 trillion.

預計在未來幾年內，美國債務將突破 50 兆美元。

And within the next 20 years, it can even cross 70 to $80 trillion.

而在未來 20 年內，甚至可能突破 70 到 80 兆美元。

And who exactly is going to pay that much debt?

那麼，究竟是誰要來償還這麼龐大的債務呢？

And if there is enough demand for that debt compared to the supply, what do you think are going to happen to the yields?

如果債務的供給相較於需求，需求量足夠的話，你覺得殖利率會怎麼發展？

They are going to rise substantially, costing the US Government trillions of dollars.

殖利率將會大幅上升，讓美國政府付出數兆美元的代價。

In fact, right now, the US Government is borrowing about a trillion dollars to ensure that it can actually make its interest payments.

事實上，現在美國政府正在借入大約一兆美元，來確保自己能夠支付利息。

So the Government is borrowing money from the people that it has borrowed almost $40 trillion so that it can actually pay them interest, which is why the debt on the other side is substantially growing.

所以政府正在向那些它已經借了將近 40 兆美元的人借錢，以便支付利息，這也是為什麼另一邊的債務正在大幅增加。

And it's really difficult to stop that debt from growing.

而且要阻止債務增長真的非常困難。

If the total deficit right now is about $2 trillion and based on the current projection is about to cross $2.7 trillion, selling even a trillion dollars of the US debt could potentially spike the yields by about 1 to 2%.

如果目前的總赤字約為 2 兆美元，且根據目前的預測即將突破 2.7 兆美元，那麼即使賣掉 1 兆美元的美國債務，也可能讓殖利率飆升 1% 到 2%。

And if a single percentage point is $400 billion, then 2% is $800 billion, which means that the current deficit could easily go to $3 trillion.

而如果 1% 就是 4000 億美元，那 2% 就是 8000 億美元，這表示目前的赤字很容易就會達到 3 兆美元。

而且 1% 或 2% 算是最好的情況了。

It could easily spike by 3 or 4%, which will grow the deficit by $1.5 trillion or even $2 trillion.

它很容易就會飆升 3% 或 4%，這會讓赤字增加 1.5 兆美元，甚至 2 兆美元。

The truth is that the United States cannot easily just replace the European economy alongside the UK.

事實是，美國無法輕易地取代歐盟和英國的經濟。

There aren't many other economies with $23 trillion GDPs.

沒有多少其他經濟體有 23 兆美元的 GDP。

And this is just one part of the story, because we have how much stocks EU countries own in the United States.

而這只是故事的一部分，因為我們還有歐盟國家在美國持有多少股票。

The total size of the US equity market is $60 trillion.

美國股市的總市值是 60 兆美元。

And about $20 trillion of that is being owned by foreign countries, including the European countries.

其中約有 20 兆美元由包括歐洲國家在內的國家持有。

But European countries, if we also include the UK own about $10.6 trillion, while the rest of that is distributed among the rest of the countries.

但歐洲國家，如果我們也把英國算進去，大約持有 10.6 兆美元，剩下的則分散在其他國家。

So if the EU countries suddenly dumped $10 trillion of US stocks, even possibly, imagine what is going to happen to the US Stock market.

所以如果歐盟國家突然拋售 10 兆美元的美國股票，甚至可能，想像一下美國股市會發生什麼事。

That's literally like half of all the foreign ownership of the US Stocks.

這差不多就是所有外國人持有美國股票的一半了。

Is there anyone else that can replace the European Union?

Do you think China is suddenly going to buy all of these stocks at a discount?

你覺得中國會突然以折扣價買下所有這些股票嗎？

When there is so much distrust between the United States and China, do you think India is going to replace the European Union?

在美國和中國之間有這麼多不信任感的情況下，你覺得印度會取代歐盟嗎？

Obviously, there are no alternatives to the European investments in the United States at all.

很明顯，美國的歐洲投資根本沒有任何替代品。

Maybe that's why the EU feels so confident that it can threaten the United States.

也許這就是為什麼歐盟覺得自己很有信心可以威脅美國。

If the US Is going to cross some very red lines.

如果美國跨越了某些非常嚴重的紅線。

But they don't even have to sell that much money to crush US Stock market.

但他們甚至不需要賣出那麼多的錢就能摧毀美國股市。

Even if they sell a small portion of those investments, like $1 trillion, it is going to lead to a crush that is going to be worse than the 2008 financial crisis.

就算他們賣掉一小部分的投資，像是 1 兆美元，也會引發比 2008 年金融危機更嚴重的崩盤。

And everybody who is old enough remembers how bad the 2008 financial crisis was.

大家都還記得 2008 年金融危機有多慘。

And if the United States is going to experience that, do you think it's going to be an easy walk for the US Economy?

如果美國經歷那樣的狀況，你覺得美國經濟會輕鬆過關嗎？

Print trillions of dollars to save the U.S. economy.

印出數兆美元來拯救美國經濟。

And that means more inflation, which means that your dollars are going to become a lot less valuable.

這意味著會有更多通膨，也就是說你的美元價值會大幅縮水。

So European economies don't have to sell their entire portfolio to cause such a huge crisis in the United States.

所以歐洲經濟體不需要賣掉他們全部的資產，就能在美國引發這麼大的危機。

While it seems like the EU has so much power over the United States, the truth never possibly do anything close to that.

雖然看起來歐盟對美國有很大的影響力，但事實上他們根本不可能做到那樣。

So the only thing that I want to say to the European countries, including the United Kingdom's government, is that stop dreaming when you see that the uk, Belgium and Luxembourg own so much US Debt.

所以我想跟歐洲國家，包括英國政府說，當你們看到英國、比利時和盧森堡擁有這麼多美國債務時，別再做夢了。

The only question is that why these countries own so much of US Treasuries to begin with.

問題是，這些國家一開始為什麼要擁有這麼多美國國債。

The truth is that the UK government or the Belgium government or any other European government does not directly own US Treasuries.

事實上，英國政府、比利時政府或任何其他歐洲政府，並不是直接持有美國國債。

These countries have built a business to become the mid middleman between the United States and the rest of the world.

這些國家建立了一種生意，成為美國和世界其他地區之間的中間人。

If you want to use US Dollars as the global reserve currency to do international business, you're not going to hold a lot of US Dollars in your bank account because there is something called inflation and the dollars are substantially losing their value.

如果你想把美元當作全球儲備貨幣來做國際生意，你就不會在銀行帳戶裡存放大量美元，因為有通膨這回事，美元的價值會大幅縮水。

Which is why if you're a central bank or any financial institution, you are going to hold a lot of US Treasuries so that when you're not doing business with these dollars, they're consistently earning interest from the US Government whenever you need us dol instantly turn these US Treasuries into cash and do international business.

這就是為什麼如果你是中央銀行或任何金融機構，你會持有大量美國國債，這樣當你不用這些美元做生意時，它們就能從美國政府那裡持續賺取利息，而且當你需要美元時，可以立即將這些美國國債變成現金，並進行國際貿易。

Whether it's the Saudi Arabia between Brazil or Brazil with India, or India with China.

無論是沙烏地阿拉伯和巴西之間，還是巴西和印度之間，或是印度和中國之間。

Which is why a lot of international banks hold a lot of U.S. treasuries.

這就是為什麼許多國際銀行持有大量美國國債。

And these European countries, such as the UK, Belgium, Luxembourg are working as the middleman.

而這些歐洲國家，像是英國、比利時、盧森堡，則扮演著中間人的角色。

Keeping your U.S. treasuries in U.S. banks is extremely difficult because the U.S.

你把美國國債存放在美國銀行裡，這其實非常困難，因為美國

financial institutions are under the U.S. law and dealing with U.S. law sometimes very difficult.

的金融機構都必須遵守美國的法律，而處理美國的法律有時候真的非常麻煩。

Which is why these countries basically build the infrastructure that allows the rest of the world to hold U.S.

這就是為什麼這些國家基本上建立了基礎設施，讓全世界都能持有美國

treasuries without actually directly dealing with U.S. banks.

的國債，而不需要直接跟美國銀行打交道。

So when you see that the UK holds like $900 billion of U.S.

所以，當你看到英國持有大約九千億美元的美國

treasuries, it is not that the UK government holds so much U.S. treasuries,' but rather its other countries.

國債時，並不是英國政府自己持有這麼多美國國債，而是其他國家。

It could literally be Middle Eastern rich oil countries that are owning so much US Treasuries.

這些美國國債很可能是中東的富裕產油國所持有的。

In order to do international business, they simply hold them through the uk so whenever they need them, they can easily convert them into US Dollars and do international trade and trade with other countries.

為了進行國際貿易，他們只是透過英國持有，這樣一來，他們隨時需要時，就能輕鬆地將其兌換成美元，並與其他國家進行貿易。

The exact same logic applies to Belgium, Luxembourg.

同樣的道理也適用於比利時、盧森堡。

So even if the European countries suddenly want to ditch so much of US Treasuries, they cannot possibly do that because they don't own these Treasuries to begin with.

所以，即使歐洲國家突然想拋售這麼多美國國債，他們根本不可能這麼做，因為他們一開始就不是這些國債的真正持有者。

How can you possibly sell US Treasuries if you don't own them?

你手上沒有美國國債，要怎麼賣掉呢？

European countries own about $10.4 trillion of US stocks.

歐洲國家持有大約 10.4 兆美元的美國股票。

So even throwing a trillion dollars of that into the market could suddenly crush all US Markets.

所以，就算一次性拋售一兆美元的股票，也可能瞬間摧毀所有美國股市。

Unlike the US Treasuries, most of these stocks are owned by the European companies, which means that theoretically they have the power to sell so many stocks.

跟美國國債不一樣的是，這些股票大部分都是歐洲公司持有，這意味著理論上他們有能力賣掉這麼多股票。

stocks is the Norwegian Wealth Fund that owns probably over $2 trillion.

是挪威主權財富基金，持有金額可能超過 2 兆美元。

Most of these stocks are being owned by the European pension funds.

大部分的股票是由歐洲的退休基金持有。

And the European pension funds are going through very difficult times because birth rates in Europe are falling down, tax revenues are falling down.

而歐洲的退休基金正經歷非常艱難的時期，因為歐洲的出生率正在下降，稅收收入也在下降。

On the other side, the number of the retirees are growing, which means that you have to maximize your returns in order to be able to pay to the retirees.

另一方面，退休人口越來越多，這意味著你必須最大化報酬，才能支付給退休人員。

If the US Stock market is going to collapse, then you won't be able to pay to retirees, which means that there is going to be so much unrest in Europe.

如果美國股市崩盤，你就無法支付退休人員，這意味著歐洲將會非常動盪不安。

Do you think there is a single politician in the entire European Union that could say to people that, you know what, we are going to crush the US Stock market, but

你認為整個歐盟有任何一位政治人物敢跟民眾說，你知道嗎，我們要搞垮美國股市，

you're not going to get your pensions because we depend on the US Stock market to pay you your pension.

但你們領不到終身俸，因為我們得靠美國股市來支付你們的終身俸。

But why wouldn't they simply invest in the European markets?

但他們為什麼不直接投資歐洲市場呢？

Over the last 26 years, since the year 2000, the top 100 UK companies, which is the most important index in the UK stock market, has grown by 57%.

在過去 26 年，也就是從 2000 年以來，英國市值最大的 100 家公司，也就是英國股市最重要的指數，成長了 57%。

So if these European pension funds or wealth managers that manages the wealth of the European countries would have invested that money in the UK they wouldn't actually make much money.

所以，如果這些歐洲的退休基金或管理歐洲國家財富的財富管理公司，把這些錢投資在英國，其實賺不了多少錢。

But what about the rest of the European countries?

The index that tracks the top 600 largest European companies have grown by about 62% over the exact same period of time.

追蹤歐洲市值最大的 600 家公司的指數，在同一時期成長了大約 62%。

And 62% is obviously much better than the UK but it's far from enough in order for you to maximize your returns to pay off your pensions.

顯然 62% 比英國好很多，但這離最大化報酬來支付終身俸的目標，還是差得遠了。