Name: 中國經濟轉型面臨困境！DW新聞 (China struggles to turn its economy around | DW News)
Uploaded: 2026-01-12T17:10:01.000Z
Duration: 16 min 28 s

所以我看不見短期內有任何好轉。

過去簡單式

In fact, I see a kind of a slow grind downwards, the way Japan did for over a decade.

事實上，我看到的是一種緩慢的下滑，就像日本那樣持續了十幾年。

There are some bright spots, but as a percentage of gdp, they're not that large.

雖然有些亮點，但以 gdp 的比例來看，它們並沒有那麼大。

And so it's difficult to see how they're gonna.

China's gonna dig itself out of this hole.

中國要怎麼才能擺脫這個困境。

On the face of it, China's economy performed well in 2025.

表面上看，中國經濟在 2025 年表現不錯。

Booming exports kept growth on track while manufacturers moved up the value chain.

蓬勃發展的出口讓成長步調穩健，同時製造業也向上提升價值鏈。

But investment is headed for its first annual contraction since 1998.

但投資將創下自 1998 年以來首次年度萎縮。

Domestic demand is famously sluggish and new home prices fell further in November, weighed down by a property crisis which seems never to go away.

國內需求眾所周知地疲軟，11 月新屋價格進一步下跌，房地產危機似乎永不消失，拖累了經濟。

Andrew Collier, who's a senior fellow at the Mossavar Rahmani Centre for Business and Government at Harvard Kennedy School, has just come back from a trip to China and he joins us today to share his experiences with what he's seen on the ground.

Andrew Collier，他是哈佛甘迺迪學院 Mossavar Rahmani 商業與政府中心的資深研究員，他剛從中國旅行回來，今天加入我們，分享他在當地所見的經驗。

So this week, Chinese leader Xi Jinping said he expected China's gross domestic product to expand by around 5% this year.

所以這週，中國領導人習近平表示，他預期中國的 gross domestic product 今年會擴張大約 5%。

Now, we know these forecasts are largely political decisions, but

好的，我們知道這些預測很大程度上是政治決定，但是

how do you think China will reach this forecast?

你認為中國會如何達成這個預測呢？

Well, as you know, these figures tend to be manipulated, so I don't put much faith in them.

嗯，你知道的，這些數字常常被操弄，所以我不太相信它們。

Plus, China tends to consist, consider anything, any hole in the ground they fill with concrete as a form of economic growth.

此外，中國傾向於把任何他們用混凝土填起來的坑洞都視為一種經濟成長。

So I don't pay as much attention to the GDP figures.

The real issue is, as you indicated before, the other statistics in terms of consumption and fixed asset investment.

真正的問題是，就像你之前提到的，其他關於消費和固定資產投資的統計數據。

And none of these other indices are looking very healthy right now.

而且其他這些指標現在看起來都不是很好。

Yeah, one, a big indicator is retail sales, and

對啊，其中一個重要的指標是零售銷售，

growth for retail sales have hit their worst pace outside of the pandemic.

零售銷售的成長速度，在疫情之外，創下了最差紀錄。

There's a lot of talk about kickstarting domestic demand, and

大家都在談論要刺激國內需求，

the government says much needs to be done to kick start domestic demand.

政府也說，要刺激國內需求還有很多事情要做。

Everyone's calling for China to kickstart domestic demand.

大家都在呼籲中國要刺激國內需求。

But what is actually going to happen on this and what do you think can be done to improve domestic consumption?

但實際上這方面會發生什麼事？你認為可以做些什麼來改善國內消費？

Well, I'm increasingly skeptical of the official statements in the plans.

嗯，我對官方的說法和計畫越來越懷疑了。

We just saw the Central Economic Work Conference and they made noises about increasing consumption.

我們剛才看到中央經濟工作會議，他們有提到要增加消費。

But Xi Jinping's main focus these days is trying to turn China into a great nation with military power and also economic power in key industries, including electronic vehicles and AI and so forth.

但習近平這陣子主要關注的是，要把中國變成一個偉大的國家，在軍事力量和關鍵產業的經濟實力上，包括電動車和 AI 等等。

So in the past, the government has heavily subsidized the EV industry going back a decade, which helped to propel it to significant growth.

所以過去政府大力補貼電動車產業，已經有十年的時間了，這推動了它顯著的成長。

But there's been no major rebalancing of taking money away from the industrial economy or the state industries to give them in the hands of consumers.

但實際上並沒有進行重大的再平衡，把錢從工業經濟或國營企業挪到消費者手上。

There may be some tax breaks for certain key, as I said, key technologies.

可能會有一些針對特定關鍵技術的稅收減免，就像我剛才說的。

But one of the problems there is that the tax breaks are often given by local governments who are running out of money because the property industry they've used as their piggy bank for the last 20 years is running into significant headwinds.

但其中一個問題是，這些稅收減免通常是由地方政府提供的，而他們正漸漸沒錢，因為過去二十年來他們用來當作提款機的房地產產業正遭遇嚴峻的逆風。

And you can't sell land if nobody wants to build buildings.

而且如果沒人想蓋房子，土地就賣不出去。

So I'm not, I'm not even sure the tax breaks are going to necessarily be that effective.

所以我甚至不確定稅收減免是否會真的有效。

Plus, people who don't want buy anything don't need tax breaks if they're not going to spend the money.

此外，那些不想買東西的人，如果他們本來就不打算花錢，那稅收減免對他們來說也沒什麼用。

I think Xi Jinping is doubling down on his technology bets.

我認為習近平正在加倍押注他的科技策略。

你剛提到了那裡的房地產市場。

I mean, it seems still fairly desperate and it has been now for four or five years.

我是說，這看起來還是相當絕望，而且已經持續了四五年了。

How, how is this playing out on the ground given that you've just been there?

考量到你剛去過，這在當地是怎麼發展的？

You know, how does this, how does this appear sort of IRL in real life?

你知道，這在現實生活中看起來是什麼樣子的？

Well, the official data says that prices have fallen something like 2%, which is ridiculous.

嗯，官方數據說價格下跌了大概 2%，這太扯了。

Everybody I talked to was talking about at least 20% in the major cities where they're wealthier, and

我遇到的每個人都說，在比較富裕的大城市，跌幅至少有 20%，

then anywhere from 30 to 60% declines in other areas of the country.

而在國家其他地區，跌幅則從 30% 到 60% 不等。

China's got a giant hole in the property sector because they use that as to fuel the economy.

中國的房地產市場有個巨大的窟窿，因為他們過去都靠這個來帶動經濟。

For over 20 years it was a bubble, a very serious bubble, and now they're running into problems.

20多年來，這一直是個非常嚴重的保麗龍，現在他們遇到麻煩了。

And I think the leadership's attitude is, well, if we just provide a little bit of fuel to the fire will get people back into the property industry.

我認為領導層的態度是，好吧，只要我們稍微推一把，就能讓大家重回房地產行業。

But that's not happening because most people on the ground are stuck with unsold inventory.

但這並沒有發生，因為大多數基層民眾都積壓了賣不掉的庫存。

There's 760 million square meters of unsold property, which is more than they actually sell in a year.

有 7.6 億平方公尺的未售房產，這比他們一年實際賣出的量還多。

所以我看不到短期內會有任何轉機。

In fact, I see a kind of a slow grind downwards the way Japan did for over a decade.

事實上，我認為會像日本那樣，經歷十多年的緩慢下滑。

I'm not optimistic that there's anything that can be done to help that.

我對有什麼辦法可以幫到這個情況並不樂觀。

I mean, when you're around, you're traveling around the cities and stuff, I mean, do you see empty properties?

我是說，當你在城市裡到處走動時，你看到空置的房產嗎？

Is there sort of, or is it, is it mostly Sort of in terms of, you know, unfinished projects or things that have been sold.

感覺上，是不是大部分都是未完工的案子，或是已經賣掉的東西？

Well, I was in Beijing this trip in Hong Kong, but

嗯，這次我去北京和香港，但是

I have a research assistant in Shenzhen, and

I've talked to people and there's a lot of unsold property, as I just said, 765 million square meters.

我有跟人聊過，有很多房子賣不掉，就像我剛說的，七億六千五百萬平方公尺。

I saw a lot of that stuff being built 20 years ago, and

我看到很多這種東西是二十年前蓋的，而且

I was pretty certain that given the locations out in the countryside, there's going to be no demand for a lot of this.

我很確定，考量到這些地方都在郊區，很多東西根本不會有需求。

But one of my friends is actually the chief financial officer for a large property company in Hong Kong with lots of inventory in China.

但我一個朋友，他其實是香港一家大型房地產公司，在中國有很多庫存的財務長。

And he said, well, you know, what we really are concerned about is the speculative investment.

他說，嗯，你知道的，我們真正擔心的是投機性投資。

So how much of this stuff is actually just being bought as, as, you know, as a flyer on the economy growing.

所以，有多少東西其實只是被買來，作為，你知道的，經濟成長的預期。

And nobody has a really good handle on that.

So you could see lights may come on occasionally in an apartment building, but

所以你可能會看到公寓大樓偶爾會亮燈，但

you're going to see a fair amount of empty stuff.

And so that number that we really want to know, we just can't know at this point.

所以那個我們真的很想知道的數字，目前我們就是不知道。

While you were there, you spoke to the American Chamber of Commerce.

在你過去的時候，你跟美國商會談了。

What were the main issues that you heard from their membership?

你從他們的會員那裡聽到了哪些主要議題？

Well, they're very concerned about the future of the Chinese economy because obviously, if you're trying to sell cars or pharmaceuticals or industrial engines, you want to make sure that there's demand.

嗯，他們非常擔心中國經濟的未來，因為很明顯地，如果你想賣汽車、藥品或工業引擎，你得確定有需求。

And leaving aside the intense competition with China, if the economy is slowing and fixed asset investment is slowing, then you're not going to get a lot of demand.

撇開跟中國的激烈競爭不談，如果經濟正在放緩，固定資產投資也在放緩，那麼你就不會有太多需求。

The second thing, which is not spoken too widely, but

第二件事，雖然大家沒有廣泛討論，但

the dinner parties I went to, people talked about their personal safety.

我去參加的晚宴上，大家都在談論個人安全。

If Americans are occasionally running into, you could have a business problem, and

如果美國人偶爾遇到，你可能會遇到商業問題，而

So there's a concern about the safety of some of the senior, the senior people in the business community.

所以大家會擔心一些商界高層人士的人身安全。

I mean, everybody knows the issues are not just created by China.

其實，大家都知道問題不只中國製造。

Obviously, the Trump trade war is a problem, but

顯然，川普的貿易戰是個問題，但

that is going to affect what has been fairly healthy exports, which is a third of GDP, 37% last year.

這會影響到原本相當健康的出口，出口佔 GDP 的三分之一，去年是 37%。

So if you were sending goods into China to be refashioned to goods for export, your export markets might collapse in 2026.

所以如果你把貨物送到中國加工成出口商品，你的出口市場可能會在 2026 年崩潰。

They're shifting a lot of their exports towards Southeast Asia and Africa and other areas.

他們正把很多出口轉向東南亞、非洲和其他地區。

But that can't replace Europe and the United States if we continue to see opposition in those regions.

但如果我們持續在歐洲和美國遇到阻力，這些地區是無法取代的。

Yeah, I mean, these things are all connected, of course, and

是啊，這些事情當然都息息相關，

the fact that exports is such a huge percentage of GDP can't be healthy.

出口佔 GDP 這麼大的比例，這肯定不健康。

And then we're looking at, of course, at unemployment.

然後我們當然也在關註失業率。

I think over, over the years that we've been talking about China.

我想在我們談論中國的這些年裡。

I mean, I remember several decades ago there was talk where you needed 8% growth every year to keep employment stable.

我的意思是，我記得幾十年前，當時的說法是，你需要每年 8% 的成長才能維持就業穩定。

But how would you describe the employment situation in China right now?

但你怎麼形容中國目前的就業情況呢？

The gig economy has really become a driver of jobs.

零工經濟確實已成為就業的驅動力。

And some people argue that that's great because obviously it gives you flexibility.

有些人認為這很棒，因為顯然它提供了彈性。

But the problem with that is that the pay is not necessarily very good, particularly for the food delivery.

但問題是，薪資不一定很好，尤其是外送員。

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中國經濟轉型面臨困境！DW新聞 (China struggles to turn its economy around | DW News)

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