Name: 改變你我生活的科技革命！未來還有更大的震撼彈？！ (The Tech Revolution That Changed How We Live and Why The Biggest Change is Yet to Come)
Uploaded: 2025-12-28T00:01:45.000Z
Duration: 11 min 37 s

分詞構句

The last 25 years have brought us the smartphone, streaming video and Elon Musk, not to mention that AI and whatever it has in store.

過去25年，我們迎來了智慧型手機、串流影音和Elon Musk，更別提AI以及它將帶來的無限可能。

Our colleague Caroline Hyde guides us on our journey in tech Y2K.

我們的同事Caroline Hyde將帶領我們一同回顧科技Y2K的旅程。

The millennium bug, the accident that never happened.

千禧蟲危機，一場從未真正發生的意外。

We suddenly had this fear that as the celebration moved from 99 to 00, computer systems wouldn't work.

我們突然感到恐懼，擔心隨著慶祝從99跨入00，電腦系統會無法運作。

But hundreds of millions of dollars were spent putting plans in place.

但我們投入了數億美元來制定應對計畫。

There will be some Y2K glitches somewhere.

還是會有零星的Y2K小故障出現。

We went from wired to wireless in many shapes and forms.

我們從有線網路走向了無線，形式多樣。

We're able to be connected, we're able to be understanding indeed how to communicate.

我們能夠保持連線，並且真正理解如何溝通。

But also we could then interact with the Internet at the same time.

但同時，我們也能夠與網際網路互動。

2007 streaming hits the big time with Netflix offering not just DVD DVDs through the post, but

2007年，Netflix 不僅提供郵寄 DVD，還推出了串流影音服務，讓串流影音大放異彩。

We could improve our service, offer the best of DVD and the best of online.

我們可以改善我們的服務，提供 DVD 和線上內容的最佳組合。

Combine those and then it's a huge opportunity.

將兩者結合，這就是一個巨大的機會。

We're seeing an evolution in social media that really dovetailed with the turning of the millennium.

我們看到社群媒體的演變，這與千禧年的轉捩點非常契合。

Facebook was born in a specific time and place.

Facebook made a significant pivot in 2021.

Facebook 在 2021 年做了一個重大的轉變。

I am proud to announce that starting today, it's our company is now Meta3 2 1.

我很自豪地宣佈，從今天開始，我們公司現在是 Meta3 2 1。

Elon Musk，他透過 Space X 進入了這個領域。

Born in 2002 and so swiftly, within six years, he had already got a privately owned, privately built spacecraft into orbit.

他出生於 2002 年，而且速度非常快，六年內就已經擁有一艘私人建造的太空梭進入軌道。

People are now talking about putting data centers into space.

大家現在都在討論要把資料中心送上太空。

Everyone now remembers the end of 2022 when just quietly, a not for profit OpenAI introduced Chachi PT and the crowd went wild.

大家還記得 2022 年底，非營利的 OpenAI 悄悄推出了 ChatGPT，引起了轟動。

I think it takes like unique human arrogance to believe that I cannot supersede humans.

我認為需要一種獨特的人類傲慢，才會相信我無法超越人類。

And it's now that we're seeing IBM, say by 2029, we will have in the hands of corporates a really useful quantum computer that will solve real world problems.

而我們現在看到 IBM 說，到 2029 年，企業手中將擁有一個真正有用的量子電腦，能夠解決現實世界的問題。

For more on the evolution of technology over the first quarter of the 21st century, I spoke to former IBM President and CEO Sam Palmisano and Moffitt, Nathan's partner and senior analyst Craig Moffitt.

想了解更多關於 21 世紀第一個四分之一世紀的科技演變，我採訪了前 IBM 總裁兼執行長 Sam Palmisano，以及 Moffitt 的合作夥伴兼資深分析師 Craig Moffitt。

And how the world looked in 2000 and how differently it looks today in technology.

以及 2000 年的世界樣貌，以及今天科技世界有多麼不同。

Well, it's incredible in 2000, at that point in time, I wasn't CEO yet.

嗯，2000 年的時候真是不可思議，那時候我還不是執行長。

And I was running the hardware business at IBM and that was so semiconductors, it was storage, mainframes, PC and all those sorts of things.

而我當時負責 IBM 的硬體業務，包括半導體、儲存、大型主機、PC 等等。

And basically the dominant architecture for development for research and development was the.

基本上，當時用於研發的主流架構是。

We called it the Wintel duopoly, Windows plus intel, they were the dominant for client server.

我們稱之為 Wintel 雙頭馬車，也就是 Windows 加上 Intel，它們是客戶端/伺服器架構的主導者。

And client server had become the alternative to the mainframe because you could do a lot of the applications in the client server environment that you didn't have to run this big centralized computing environment.

而客戶端/伺服器架構已經成為大型主機的替代方案，因為你可以在客戶端/伺服器環境中執行許多應用程式，而不需要運行那個龐大的集中式運算環境。

So that was what we, that's the world we lived in.

所以，這就是我們當時所處的世界。

Actually, the Internet started in the late 70s and people again didn't realize what was happening is because it was basically research laboratories passing technical journals to each other in a standard format.

事實上，網際網路始於 70 年代末期，人們當時並沒有意識到發生了什麼，因為基本上是研究實驗室之間以標準格式傳遞技術期刊。

But all the things that made it the Internet as it is today had to be built up.

但所有讓網際網路成為今日樣貌的要素，都必須逐步建立起來。

What do you see converging right now in tech?

你現在看到科技界有哪些東西正在匯聚？

For example, AI, what it could make possible in various areas over the next 25 years?

舉例來說，AI 在未來 25 年內，在各個領域可能帶來什麼樣的可能性？

But I can tell you some of the stuff we're working on.

但我可以跟你分享一些我們正在進行的工作。

It's just like the early days of the Internet.

Did anybody think that this would get to where you can't live without your smartphone?

有人曾想過，有一天你會離不開你的智慧型手機嗎？

I mean we did see opportunities, but I didn't.

我是說我們看到了機會，但我沒有。

We never thought of Uber or GPS or those kinds of things operating on your phone.

我們從沒想過會有 Uber 或 GPS 這種東西在你的手機上運作。

And that's, I think what's going to happen here.

There are people I know today that are building, they call companies without any people.

我認識一些人，他們正在建立所謂「無人公司」。

We're invested in one that's building an AI bank.

我們投資了一家正在建立 AI 銀行的公司。

I think in other areas which we've done a lot of work on, like drug discovery, you're just seeing the beginning of that.

我認為在我們投入很多心力的其他領域，像是藥物研發，你現在才剛看到它的開端。

I think if you can take the very complex cases of disease or drugs and forget these big data centers, connect that with a quantum computer, with the knowledge within the AI systems and the data structures and the volume of that data and all those case histories and things that could be significant, that could be a significant breakthrough.

我認為如果你能處理非常複雜的疾病或藥物案例，並且忘掉那些大型數據中心，將它與量子電腦連結，結合 AI 系統內的知識、數據結構、龐大的數據量以及所有可能很重要的案例歷史，那將會是個重大的突破。

When are we going to see quantum computers really be usable and how transformational could they be?

我們什麼時候才能看到量子電腦真正可用，以及它能有多大的變革性？

Where it's a defined space that it's a, it's not a general purpose computer.

它是一個定義好的空間，不是通用電腦。

And I think that's where, when people are talking about it being ready by 2029, I believe that'll be the use cases at that point in time.

我認為這就是為什麼當大家說它會在 2029 年準備好時，我相信那時候就會是這些應用情境了。

It won't be what you can do in a cloud today or which you could run historically in a mainframe, which is large general purpose systems that do all kinds of work, manage all kinds of variables and those sorts of things.

它不會是你現在在雲端能做的事，也不是你過去能在大型主機上執行的，那些是能處理各種工作、管理各種變數等等的大型通用系統。

Now the benefit of that is you'll have the general purpose systems feed the quantum machine.

這樣的好處是，通用系統會餵給量子機器。

The quantum machine will do its stuff that can do very, very well and then pass it back.

量子機器會做好它非常非常擅長的事，然後再傳回來。

A lot of changes in a lot of places, but certainly in the telecommunications area.

很多地方都會有很大的改變，但肯定會在電信領域。

Give us your perspective about that 25 years.

It's quite interesting if you think back to that period for a number of reasons.

如果你回想那個時期，會發現它因為很多原因而相當有趣。

One is people talk about it as the bursting of the dot com bubble.

有人說那是網路保麗龍的破裂。

But the bursting of the dot com bubble in reality wasn't terribly consequential.

但網路保麗龍的破裂，實際上並沒有造成太大的影響。

There wasn't a lot of market cap involved, there weren't all that many job involved.

涉及的市值不大，也沒多少工作機會。

The bursting of the telecom bubble was much more significant and it set in motion things that have lasted and echoed for 25 years.

而電信保麗龍的破裂就嚴重多了，它啟動了延續 25 年的改變。

I think you can make a case that the jobs lost and the potential for a really serious recession coming out of the bursting of the telecom bubble was why Alan Greenspan and the Fed cut rates aggressively to forestall a recession that ultimately inflated real estate prices and arguably was one of the main precipitants of the bursting of the housing bubble that created the Great Recession of 2010.

我認為，電信保麗龍破裂造成的失業和嚴重的衰退危機，正是 Alan Greenspan 和聯準會積極降息以阻止衰退的原因，這最終推高了房價，也可能是造成 2010 年大衰退的房市保麗龍破裂的主要原因之一。

On the other hand, it created a tremendous amount of telecom capacity that continues to benefit us to this day.

另一方面，它也創造了龐大的電信容量，至今仍造福著我們。

And the connectivity and the cost of connectivity that fell so precipitously because of the overbuilding of the late 1990s had really, really salut for the tech economy for another two decades.

而因為 90 年代末期過度建設，連帶產生的連線能力和連線成本大幅下降，對科技經濟在接下來的二十年裡有非常、非常大的助益。

The obvious question that everybody's struggling with today is what are the echoes between that period and today's potential bubble in AI?

大家現在都在努力釐清的問題是，那個時期和現在潛在的 AI 保麗龍之間有什麼關聯？

And if the bubble bursts, the most important question is really will the capacity that's being built, all these data centers for example, but

如果保麗龍破裂，最重要的問題是，正在建置的這些容量，像是所有這些資料中心，

also the power that supports them and the facilities themselves, will those facilities actually have a long useful life?

還有支持它們的電力和設施本身，這些設施真的能有長久的使用壽命嗎？

A long enough useful life to have a benefit even if the bubble bursts?

夠長的壽命，即使保麗龍破裂也能帶來益處嗎？

Or are they such short lived assets that unfortunately it simply brings all the pain of the bursting of a bubble without any of the benefits.

還是說這些資產的壽命太短，不幸地只帶來保麗龍破裂的痛苦，卻沒有任何好處？

When we think about the so called bubble in the year 2000, often people are thinking of things like pets.com?

當我們想到 2000 年的所謂保麗龍時，大家常會想到像 pets.com 這樣的公司嗎？

but there was also fiber optic which got really overbuilt excess capacity.

但當時也有光纖被過度建設，產生了過剩的容量。

But without that fiber optic cable, would we have many of the services we have today?

但如果沒有那些光纖纜線，我們今天還能有這麼多服務嗎？

It really turned out to be tremendously beneficial to the tech economy.

它們確實對科技經濟帶來了極大的助益。

There was a genuine capacity shortage going into the late 1990s.

90 年代末期確實出現了嚴重的容量短缺。

And what happened was Wall street in the way that it does figured the way to solve this problem is to fund new companies and new innovation.

接著華爾街就以它一貫的方式，認為解決這個問題的方法就是資助新公司和新創。

New entrants created this extraordinary overhang of capacity.

新進者創造了這股非凡的容量過剩。

So there was this massive excess capacity.

所以就出現了龐大的產能過剩。

The marginal costs of any telecom business are essentially zero.

任何電信業的邊際成本基本上都是零。

And so it didn't take a genius to figure out the debt service from all these new entrants was going to be impossible to satisfy.

所以不用聰明絕頂，就知道這些新進者背負的債務根本不可能還得清。

You were going to have a wave of bankruptcies that would create this enormous crash.

接下來就會有一波破產潮，造成巨大的崩盤。

We never would have had Netflix without the enormous capacity that had been created in the telecom bubble.

如果沒有電信保麗龍時期創造的龐大產能，我們就不會有 Netflix。

Netflix was able to take advantage of essentially free transport to build a business that today is sort of dominant in the entertainment business.

Netflix 能夠利用幾乎免費的傳輸來建立事業，這個事業如今在娛樂界可說是龍頭老大。

And streaming is all the rage right now, given even some of the deals we're seeing going on or trying to go on.

串流影音現在非常流行，看看我們現在看到或正在進行的一些交易就知道了。

I remember back in the day, going from twisted pair to coaxial cable seemed like a really big step forward.

我記得以前，從雙絞線升級到同軸電纜，感覺就像是往前邁進了一大步。

Coaxial cable, as you said, really took off as the transmission medium to the home.

正如你所說，同軸電纜作為傳輸到家庭的媒介，確實蓬勃發展。

That lasted for another really two decades.

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改變你我生活的科技革命！未來還有更大的震撼彈？！ (The Tech Revolution That Changed How We Live and Why The Biggest Change is Yet to Come)

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potential

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