Name: 2026年潛藏危機將比2008年房市崩盤更嚴重？！ (What’s Coming in 2026 is Worse Than 2008 Housing Crash)
Uploaded: 2025-12-26T18:26:15.000Z
Duration: 10 min 49 s

If you are planning to buy a house, then watch this video.

如果你正打算買房，那這個影片一定要看。

What's happening in the housing market is way worse than most people imagine.

現在房地產市場的狀況，比大多數人想像的還要糟很多。

People have been waiting for rate cuts to be able to afford a house.

大家都在等著降息，希望能買得起房子。

Despite the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates to 3.5%, mortgage rates are still as high as they have been back in 2023.

儘管美國聯邦準備理事會把利率降到 3.5%，房貸利率卻還跟 2023 年一樣高。

In fact, back in summer, before the rate cuts, I told you that cutting interest rates is not going to lead to low mortgage rates.

事實上，夏天降息之前，我就跟你們說過，降息並不會帶來低房貸利率。

Everybody for some reason believes that if the Fed is going to lower down interest rates, then we are going to have lower mortgage rates.

大家不知道為什麼都認為，如果聯準會要降低利率，我們的房貸利率就會跟著下降。

But that's not how it works and it's not going to happen.

但事情不是這樣運作的，也不會發生。

So even if the Fed is going to lower down interest rates, mortgage rates are not coming down.

所以就算聯準會要降利率，房貸利率也不會跟著下降。

And here is the Chairman of the Fed admitting what I have already told you.

而這就是聯準會主席承認我說過的話。

Yeah, so the housing market faces some really significant challenges.

是的，所以房地產市場面臨一些非常嚴峻的挑戰。

And I don't know that, you know, a 25 basis point decline in the federal funds rate is going to make much of a difference for people.

我不知道，你知道，聯邦基金利率下降 25 個基本點，對大家來說會有什麼太大的影響。

So should you wait for lower mortgage rates or just go ahead and buy a house?

所以你應該等房貸利率下降，還是直接買房呢？

What will be happening in the housing market in 2026?

2026 年的房地產市場會發生什麼事？

This is why people believe that lower interest rate is going to lead to lower mortgage rates.

這就是為什麼大家認為較低的利率會帶來較低的房貸利率。

Because people assume that banks borrow money from the Federal Reserve and then loan that money to the borrowers.

因為大家假設銀行從美國聯邦準備理事會借錢，然後再把錢貸給借款人。

So if the bank can borrow that money at a lower interest rate, then they can offer lower mortgage rates for borrowers, which is why there was so much pressure on the Federal Reserve.

所以如果銀行能以較低的利率借到錢，他們就能提供給借款人較低的房貸利率，這也是為什麼美國聯邦準備理事會承受了這麼大的壓力。

Donald Trump has also attacked the Chairman of the Fed multiple times.

甚至川普也多次攻擊過聯準會主席。

And there has been very loud voices in the Congress that we want lower interest rates so that the American people can afford a house.

國會裡也有很多聲音大喊，我們想要較低的利率，這樣美國人民才能負擔得起房子。

But the reality is that interest rates are at 3.5%.

And that's because the Federal Reserve has abused the system over the last 20 years to the point where interest rates no longer impact the housing market.

這是因為美國聯邦準備理事會過去 20 年來濫用了這個系統，導致利率不再影響房地產市場。

So even if the Fed tomorrow lowers interest rates to 0%, it is not going to bring mortgage rates below their current rates.

所以，即使聯準會明天把利率降到 0%，房貸利率也不會低於目前的水準。

Well, well, if that's the case, how is it possible that back in 2020, the Federal Reserve somehow brought mortgage rates to 2% or 3%?

好吧，如果真是這樣，那 2020 年美國聯邦準備理事會是怎麼把房貸利率降到 2% 或 3% 的呢？

Let's say we have a bank that provides you the mortgage.

假設我們有一家銀行提供你房貸。

Banks usually don't like mortgages because these are 30 year loans.

銀行通常不喜歡房貸，因為這是 30 年的貸款。

And so many things would happen in the next 30 years.

而且在接下來的 30 年裡，可能會發生很多事情。

What if the bank offers you a mortgage at 4% interest rate and then suddenly, 10 years later, inflation rises to 7 or 8% and the bank is going to go out of business.

如果銀行以 4% 的利率提供你房貸，結果 10 年後通貨膨脹飆升到 7% 或 8%，銀行就會倒閉。

So in order to make housing affordable mortgage rates to sustainable level, we have turned the entire housing market into a tradable security.

所以，為了讓住房可負擔的房貸利率維持在可持續的水準，我們把整個房地產市場變成了一個可交易證券。

So the banks often take your mortgage and turn it into a mortgage backed security and then sells it to investors.

所以銀行通常會把你的房貸拿去，變成房貸抵押證券，然後賣給投資者。

And based on the demand and supply for these mortgage backed securities, the yields on these mortgages will be determined.

而根據這些房貸抵押證券的需求和供給，房貸的收益率就會被決定。

So for example, if there is such a strong demand by investors to buy mortgage backed securities, then the bank can offer you a lower interest rate because they know that they can sell it to investors.

所以舉例來說，如果投資者對購買房貸抵押證券有很強的需求，銀行就可以提供你較低的利率，因為他們知道他們可以賣給投資者。

But if investors are not willing to buy this mortgage backed securities, let's say for 5%, then how can the bank offer you a lower mortgage rate when it can actually sell it to investor at 5%?

但如果投資者不願意購買這些房貸抵押證券，假設是 5%，那麼銀行怎麼能提供你較低的房貸利率，當他們實際上可以以 5% 的價格賣給投資者？

So the bank will have to offer investors 6% maybe then 6.5%.

所以銀行可能必須提供投資者 6% 甚至 6.5%。

But if there is suddenly a huge demand by investors to buy this mortgage backed securities and they're willing to accept, let's say 4%, then the bank will offer you a 4% mortgage rate because they know that it will take that mortgage and sell it to investor at.

但如果突然有投資者對購買這些房貸抵押證券有龐大的需求，而且他們願意接受，假設是 4%，那麼銀行就會提供你 4% 的房貸利率，因為他們知道他們會拿走這個房貸並賣給投資者。

Well, if this is the case, how is it possible that back in 2020 we had such low interest rates?

好吧，如果情況是這樣，那麼在 2020 年我們怎麼會有這麼低的利率？

In 2020, when the pandemic happened, the Federal Reserve panicked.

2020 年，疫情爆發時，美國聯邦準備理事會陷入恐慌。

Because a few years earlier, or about 12 years earlier, we had the housing market.

因為幾年前，或者說大概 12 年前，我們經歷了房地產市場的崩盤。

And what caused the housing market that literally crushed the entire global economy was that investors lost hope in the housing market and they stopped buying mortgage backed securities.

而導致房地產市場崩盤，並嚴重拖垮整個全球經濟的原因是，投資者對房地產市場失去信心，停止購買房貸抵押證券。

So when these investors stopped buying mortgage backed securities wouldn't be able to provide the mortgages.

所以當這些投資者停止購買房貸抵押證券時，銀行就無法提供房貸了。

So the banks would go bankrupt, the borrowers won't be able to borrow money.

這樣銀行就會破產，借款人也借不到錢。

Which is why the Federal Reserve stepped in and they started buying the mortgage backed securities.

這就是為什麼美國聯邦準備理事會介入，開始購買房貸抵押證券。

So to prevent the 2008 style financial crisis, the Federal Reserve stepped in in 2020 and started massively buying mortgage backed securities.

為了防止 2008 年那樣的金融危機，美國聯邦準備理事會於 2020 年介入，開始大量收購房貸抵押證券。

The Fed spent about $1.3 trillion to buy mortgage backed securities.

聯準會花了約 1.3 兆美元購買房貸抵押證券。

That strong demand has dropped the yield on mortgage backed securities to about 2 or 2.5%.

強勁的需求讓房貸抵押證券的殖利率降至約 2% 或 2.5%。

Which is why your mortgage rate was about 2.5%.

這就是為什麼你的房貸利率大約是 2.5% 的原因。

In other words, the Fed was the largest investor in the housing market back in 2020 and 2021.

換句話說，在 2020 年和 2021 年，聯準會是房地產市場最大的投資者。

And the moment the Federal Reserve start buying mortgage backed securities in 2022, mortgage rates have increased to about 7%.

而就在美國聯邦準備理事會於 2022 年開始購買房貸抵押證券的那一刻，房貸利率就上升到約 7%。

The real question is that why can't the Fed simply do the exact same thing Again?

真正的問題是，聯準會為什麼不能再做同樣的事情？

The Fed made it possible for the average American to buy a house.

聯準會讓一般美國人買得起房子。

There is a huge difference between the Federal Reserve buying mortgage backed securities and investors.

聯準會購買房貸抵押證券和投資者之間有很大的不同。

When investors, people like you, people like me, or literally huge fish funds.

當投資者，像你我這樣的人，或是字面上的大型基金。

When we are buying mortgage backed securities, we are doing that with our hard earned money.

當我們購買房貸抵押證券時，我們是用我們辛苦賺來的錢。

I have earned that money and I used my money to buy the mortgage backed securities, the pension fund or the large financial institution.

我賺了那些錢，然後我用我的錢去買房貸抵押證券、退休基金或大型金融機構。

Nobody gave them the money, they earned that money and now they're investing that money.

沒有人給他們錢，他們賺了那些錢，現在他們正在投資這些錢。

And when you're investing your money, you're thinking about how can I maximize my returns.

當你投資你的錢時，你會想著如何最大化你的報酬。

So if you don't know, for example how to invest, you can literally learn everything you need to know about investing by checking the first link in the description of this video.

所以如果你不知道怎麼投資，你可以在這個影片說明區的第一個連結找到所有你需要知道的投資知識。

Now this, this course is going to become a paid course very soon, but for now it's free.

這個課程很快就會變成付費課程，但現在是免費的。

So if you log in and join right now, it will be forever free for you.

所以如果你現在登入加入，你就可以永遠免費。

However, when the Federal Reserve is investing in the mortgage backed securities or any other asset, the Fed does not work hard to create that money.

不過，當美國聯邦準備理事會投資房貸抵押證券或其他任何資產時，聯準會並不會辛苦地創造那些錢。

The Fed literally just presses the button and money is created.

聯準會只要按個按鈕，錢就出現了。

So the Fed can literally create trillions of dollars.

所以聯準會可以創造數兆美元。

Which is why when the Fed is buying mortgage backed securities, it is directly increasing supply of money.

這就是為什麼當聯準會購買房貸抵押證券時，是在直接增加貨幣供應。

Why did house prices jump by 30 to 40% between 2020 to 2022?

2020到2022年間，房價為什麼會跳漲30%到40%？

That's because the Fed simply increased the supply of money.

那是因為聯準會只是增加了貨幣供應。

On one side you are making housing affordable through low mortgage rates in the short run, but

一方面，你透過較低的房貸利率讓住房在短期內變得負擔得起，但

in the long run you suddenly massively increase the supply of money.

長期來看，你卻突然大幅增加了貨幣供應。

And house prices simply became unaffordable for the vast majority of Americans.

而房價對絕大多數美國人來說，變得根本買不起。

Which is why the only reason you would use that nuclear option.

這就是為什麼你只會在萬不得已時使用那個終極手段。

If you are on the brink of a catastrophe and you want to prevent that catastrophe, but

如果你正處於災難的邊緣，而且想阻止那場災難，但

if we don't have a crisis and things are fine, then you can't simply just print money to make housing affordable.

如果我們沒有危機，一切都好好的，那你也不能只是印鈔票來讓住房變得負擔得起。

Imagine if in 2020, on one side we had the pandemic, on the other side we had the 2008 style financial crisis.

想像一下，如果在2020年，一方面我們有疫情，另一方面我們有2008年那種金融危機。

I think the global economy would have literally collapsed.

Just because the Fed is printing money, it doesn't mean that we are creating more houses.

聯準會只是在印鈔票，並不代表我們就蓋了更多房子。

The real problem with the housing market is that there is simply a shortage of houses in the market.

房地產市場的真正問題是市場上就是房子不夠。

So printing money is not going to create more houses.

所以印鈔票並不會蓋出更多房子。

For example, zoning lows does not allow to build enough houses.

例如，分區法規不允許蓋足夠的房子。

Homeowners don't want more houses to be built because the value of their houses is going to drop.

屋主不希望蓋更多房子，因為他們房子的價值會下降。

And there are other reasons that prevent us to build more houses.

還有其他原因阻止我們蓋更多房子。

So the core problem is that there aren't enough houses and none of these solutions is going to solve it.

所以核心問題是房子不夠，而這些解決方案都無法解決這個問題。

If you pay attention at house prices, they haven't actually been rising in the last two to three years, especially since 2022.

如果你注意房價，過去兩三年，特別是從2022年以來，房價其實並沒有上漲。

In fact, in some places, house prices have been declining.

事實上，有些地方的房價一直在下跌。

But starting from 2026, house prices will be rising.

但從2026年開始，房價將會上漲。

And that's because the Federal Reserve will start quantitative easing.

這也是因為美國聯邦準備理事會將開始量化寬鬆。

Quantitative easing simply means that the Fed will be buying securities, but not mortgage backed securities.

量化寬鬆的意思是聯準會會購買證券，但不是房貸抵押證券。

If the Fed would have purchased mortgage backed securities, then mortgage rates would go down.

如果聯準會購買房貸抵押證券，房貸利率就會下降。

But the Fed will be buying short term Treasuries.

但聯準會將購買短期美國國庫券。

In fact, it will be buying $40 billion of U.S.

事實上，他們每個月將購買400億美元的美國國庫券。

treasuries every single month to ensure that the yields on US Treasuries will not get out of control.

以確保美國國庫券的殖利率不會失控。

But whether you like it or not, any kind of quantitative easing, regardless if the Fed is buying U.S.

但不管你喜不喜歡，任何形式的量化寬鬆，無論聯準會是購買美國國庫券還是房貸抵押證券，都會增加貨幣供應量，這意味著房價將會上漲。

treasuries or mortgage backed securities, it is still going to increase the supply of money, which means that it is going to lead to higher house prices.

所以從2026年開始，我們將面臨一個更大的問題。

So starting from 2026, we are going to have a much bigger problem.

一方面，房貸利率不會降到任何可持續的水準，除非對房貸抵押證券的需求會增加。

On one side, mortgage rates are not coming down to any sustainable levels unless demand will increase for mortgage backed securities.