Name: 美國同意解除鉀肥制裁後，123名囚犯獲釋！| DW新聞 (After the United States agreed to lift sanctions on potash 123 prisoners were let go | DW News)
Uploaded: 2025-12-14T17:14:10.000Z
Duration: 14 min 56 s

Belarus has freed more than 120 political prisoners after the United States agreed to lift sanctions on potash, that's a key ingredient in fertilizer.

白俄羅斯在美國同意解除氯化鉀禁令後，釋放了超過 120 名政治犯，氯化鉀是肥料的關鍵成分。

Among those released, prominent opposition leader Maria Kolesnikova.

獲釋者中包括了知名的反對派領袖 Maria Kolesnikova。

She was one of dozens of political prisoners freed near the Belarus Ukraine border.

她是近白俄羅斯烏克蘭邊境獲釋的數十名政治犯之一。

In neighboring Lithuania, Nobel Peace Prize winner Alex Bialiatsky was let go at the US Embassy in the capital, Vilnius.

在鄰國立陶宛，諾貝爾和平獎得主 Alex Bialiatsky 在首都維爾紐斯的美國大使館獲釋。

Authoritarian leader Alexander Lukashenko agreed to the pardons as part of a deal brokered by the US Here's Belarusian protest leader Maria Kolesnikova speaking about her release from prison five years after she was jailed for opposing Alexander Lukashenko.

威權領導人 Alexander Lukashenko 同意赦免，這是美國促成的協議的一部分。以下是白俄羅斯抗議領袖 Maria Kolesnikova 在被監禁五年後，談論她獲釋的經歷，她因反對 Alexander Lukashenko 而被監禁。

It's a great joy to now witness the first free sunset.

能見證第一個自由的日落，真是巨大的喜悅。

But at the same time, of course, I think about those people who are not yet free.

但同時，我當然也會想到那些還未自由的人們。

And I so eagerly await the moment when we can all hug, when we can all see each other, and

我熱切期盼我們都能擁抱、都能見到彼此的那一刻，

For more on this, let's bring in DW's analyst Konstantin Eggert.

關於這件事的更多內容，我們請到 DW 的分析師 Konstantin Eggert。

Constantine, what do you make of Belarus releasing these political prisoners?

Konstantin，你怎麼看白俄羅斯釋放這些政治犯？

Lukashenko needs money and potash is one of the most important elements contributing to Belarus exports and its fertilizers, as was mentioned before.

盧卡申科需要錢，而氯化鉀是白俄羅斯出口及其肥料最重要的元素之一，就像之前提到的。

So yes, this is part of the deal in which Lukashenko gets more money and he frees people that will now create one of the most impressive opposition communities, I would say, in the world.

所以是的，這是盧卡申科獲得更多錢並釋放人們的協議的一部分，我認為這將會創造出世界上最令人印象深刻的反對派社群之一。

Frankly speaking, I think that in this respect we have to mention also one thing, that this was a negotiation not only between Minsk and Washington, but

坦白說，我認為在這方面我們還必須提到一件事，這不僅是明斯克和華盛頓之間的談判，

也是明斯克、華盛頓和基輔之間的談判。

Five Ukrainians were liberated, were set free among those hundred plus people and a significant part of those released were actually sent to Ukraine where they were met by high level officials of Ukrainian government.

在這百餘名獲釋人員中，有五名烏克蘭人被解放、獲釋，其中相當一部分人實際上被送往烏克蘭，並受到烏克蘭政府高層官員的迎接。

So it is very interesting that it was a trilateral negotiation.

所以，這是一場三方談判，非常有趣。

Now what does this mean for Alexander Lukashenko, who the EU does not even recognize as the legitimate elected leader of Belarus?

那麼，這對歐盟甚至不承認他是白俄羅斯合法民選領導人的亞歷山大·盧卡申科來說意味著什麼？

He will not be immediately recognized as a legitimate leader.

他不會立刻被認可為合法領導人。

But I think that Lukashenko's calculation is that he is going to get eventually some kind of relaxation, diplomatic and political relaxation of the isolation in which his regime finds itself, if you wish, through the American back door, that eventually the Europeans will see that the Americans are having their own deals with the, the Belarusians and will say, well, we can't be really left behind, we should jump on this train too.

但我認為盧卡申科的盤算是，他最終會透過美國這個後門，獲得某種程度的緩和，也就是他政權目前所處的孤立狀態能夠得到外交和政治上的放鬆，最終歐洲人會看到美國正在與白俄羅斯進行他們自己的交易，然後說，好吧，我們也不能真的被落下，我們也應該搭上這班列車。

So I think that's the strategy to get to force the European Union to relax its attitude by doing deals with Washington.

所以我認為這就是透過與華盛頓達成協議，迫使歐盟放鬆態度的策略。

Now, how would Russia, which is a close ally of Belarus, see this prisoner released?

那麼，作為白俄羅斯緊密盟友的俄羅斯，會如何看待這次的囚犯釋放呢？

莫斯科在這件事上有發言權嗎？

Well, I think that if Putin was objecting to this, he would have made his displeasure to Lukashenko felt and heard very, very quickly.

嗯，我認為如果普丁反對這件事，他會非常、非常迅速地讓盧卡申科感受到他的不滿。

I do think that the Americans even mentioned one of the members of the American delegation.

我確實認為美國人甚至提到了美國代表團的一名成員。

Cole himself, the chief negotiator, that basically, by talking to Lukashenko indirectly, the US Is also dealing with Putin.

Cole 本人，也就是首席談判代表，表示基本上，透過與盧卡申科間接對話，美國也在與普丁打交道。

So there is a recognition that de facto, Lukashenko is very, very dependent on the Kremlin.

所以大家也認知到，事實上，盧卡申科非常、非常依賴克里姆林宮。

So my understanding is that it's part of a wider picture in which there are conversations going on between Moscow and Washington, Washington and Minsk, something that didn't happen before.

所以我的理解是，這是更廣泛局勢的一部分，莫斯科與華盛頓、華盛頓與明斯克之間正在進行對話，這在以前是不會發生的。

So in this respect, I think that Putin benefits from this by basically having his ally Lukashenko now getting more free hands and better financing.

所以在這方面，我認為普丁從中獲益，因為他的盟友盧卡申科現在獲得了更多自由和更好的資金。

So I think in this respect, if you wish, everyone win.

所以我認為在這方面，如果你願意這麼說，每個人都贏了。

But of course, also those who are set free.

One thing that's important, Gerhard, not all political prisoners in Belarus are set free.

有一件事很重要，Gerhard，並非所有白俄羅斯的政治犯都獲釋了。

For example, Andrei Pachobot, quite a famous sort of political activist in, as well as the son of one person released Viktor Babarika, the former candidate in presidential elections.

例如，Andrei Pachobot，一位相當有名的政治活躍人士，以及一位獲釋者的兒子 Viktor Babarika，他曾是總統候選人。

So there are still quite a few people there.

我們拭目以待接下來會發生什麼。

TW Russia analyst Konstantin Eggert there.

這裡有俄羅斯分析師 Konstantin Eggert。

我現在可以跟 Hanna Lyubakova 談談了。

She is a Belarusian journalist and a political analyst with the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center.

她是《大西洋理事會歐亞中心》的白俄羅斯記者兼政治分析師。

Now, what made the Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko release these political prisoners?

那麼，是什麼讓白俄羅斯領導人 Alexander Lukashenko 釋放這些政治犯呢？

I think in the first place, it is the geopolitical situation.

Lukashenko is saying that there is some opening between the US And Russia.

盧卡申科說，美國和俄羅斯之間出現了一些緩和的空間。

There are peace talks, there are conversations about the future of the region.

有和平談判，也有關於該地區未來走向的對話。

So Lukashenko wants to be a part of this.

He doesn't feel that Russia should be the only country that he relies on.

他覺得俄羅斯不應該是他唯一的依靠。

Secondly, this is the sustained pressure that has been existing for all these years.

其次，這是多年來一直存在的持續壓力。

And my country's economy, Belarusian economy, feels this.

我國的經濟，白俄羅斯的經濟，感受到了這一點。

The GDP is not increasing as fast as it used to.

國內生產總值（GDP）的增長不像以前那麼快了。

So the number of factors here have played a role, but definitely sanctions is one of them.

所以這裡有很多因素在起作用，但制裁絕對是其中之一。

Now, do you think since Lukashenko is a close ally of Vladimir Putin, did he ask Putin for permission?

那麼，你認為盧卡申科是普丁的親密盟友，他有向普丁徵求同意嗎？

I think in general, given that Putin is speaking with President Trump himself, probably Lukashenko did not feel that he needs to ask for permission.

我認為總的來說，考慮到普丁是親自與川普總統談話，盧卡申科可能覺得他不需要徵求同意。

But also, you might remember the prisoner swap last year.

但你可能也記得去年的囚犯交換。

Last summer that took place between the US And Russia.

去年夏天，美國和俄羅斯之間進行了這次交換。

And after that, Lukashenko begin releasing some of the prisoners.

之後，盧卡申科開始釋放一些囚犯。

So this is a sort of permission, I think, that probably Lukashenko did not ask for, but

所以，我認為這是一種許可，盧卡申科可能沒有徵求，但

So in a way, this is the continuation of that.

所以某種程度上，這是那件事的延續。

I don't think that he's asking about particular prisoners, whether he should release them or not.

我不認為他會詢問具體的囚犯，是否應該釋放他們。

But that's definitely also part of this kind of bigger deal and bigger special operation that Lukashenko is also kind of thinking about and is doing.

但這絕對也是盧卡申科正在思考和進行的更大協議和更大特別行動的一部分。

We see that the kgb, Belarusian kgb, is involved in the conversations with the Americans.

我們看到白俄羅斯克格勃參與了與美國人的對話。

So definitely that's part of a bigger conversation between Belarus.

所以這絕對是白俄羅斯之間更大對話的一部分。

And I think Lukashenko is definitely discussing at least some of the issues related to the war, to the geopolitical situation with Putin.

我認為盧卡申科絕對正在與普丁討論至少一些與戰爭、與地緣政治局勢相關的問題。

Now, there are hints that more political prisoners could be released in the near future.

現在，有跡象顯示近期可能會釋放更多政治犯。

I mean, the opposition within Belarus, will it be strengthened when more prisoners, political prisoners are being released?

我的意思是，白俄羅斯國內的反對力量，在更多囚犯、政治犯被釋放時，會不會是以壯大？

Of course, that's something that all of us, not just the democratic forces, but

當然，這也是我們所有人，不只是民主力量，

also journalists, activists, analysts, everyone, every Belarusian who is in exile, we've been fighting for in the past years for the release of those, our friends, our colleagues in jail.

還有記者、活動家、分析家，以及所有在海外的白俄羅斯人，我們過去幾年來一直在為營救那些被監禁的朋友、同事而奮鬥。

And today, special envoy John Cole said that more than 1,000 more should be released soon.

而今天，特使約翰·科爾表示，預計很快還會有超過一千人獲釋。

And that's something that also President Trump said before, at least tweeted when he called Lukashenko a few months ago.

這也是川普總統幾個月前致電盧卡申科時，至少在推特上說過的。

So, yes, we are definitely expecting them.

所以，是的，我們絕對在期盼著。

would also kind of force negotiate with the regime in Belarus, that people who want to stay in Belarus would stay there, because otherwise those people are just being deported.

也會迫使白俄羅斯政權進行談判，那些想留在白俄羅斯的人會留在當地，否則那些人就會被驅逐出境。

Today, Most, more than 100 went to Ukraine, otherwise they also go to Lithuania.

今天，超過一百人去了烏克蘭，不然他們也會去立陶宛。

現在，我們來看看這個時間點。

You hinted already at the fact that this is related to the bigger geopolitical.

你已經暗示了這與更大的地緣政治有關。

Now there's a meeting taking place in Berlin early next week between Ukraine, EU and US Officials.

下週初，烏克蘭、歐盟和美國官員將在柏林舉行會議。

Well, I, obviously I'm not inside Lukashenko's head, but

嗯，我，顯然我無法得知盧卡申科的想法，但是

I think he's definitely following and he, as I mentioned, Right.

我認為他絕對有在關注，而且，正如我提到的，對。

So he's saying that there are some changes, that something is cracking, something is going to happen.

所以他說有些改變正在發生，有些東西正在瓦解，有些事情即將發生。

You might remember that during the Minsk agreements negotiations that were happening in Minsk when, during the conflict, the war in Donbas, Lukashenko was hosting these talks.

你可能還記得，在明斯克協議談判期間，當時在頓巴斯衝突、戰爭期間，盧卡申科曾在明斯克接待這些會談。

所以現在我認為其中一個因素，

probably one of the reasons why he's involved in these releases is that he wants to present himself as kind of somebody who can be negotiated with, somebody who can be talked with.

而且這可能也是他參與這些釋放行動的原因之一，因為他想展現自己是個可以談判、可以溝通的人。

He wants to be this kind of better guy than Putin.

他想成為比普丁更好的那個人。

But of course, he doesn't want to see himself being on the outskirts of all these negotiations and great decisions, big decisions that are happening.

但當然，他也不想讓自己被排除在這些正在發生的重大談判和決策之外。

Hanna Aliubak over there, senior fellow of the Atlantic Council's Eurasia center, thank you very much for sharing your insight with us.

大西洋理事會歐亞中心的高級研究員 Hanna Aliubak，非常感謝您跟我們分享您的見解。

現在我們來聽聽 Katya Grod 的說法。