Name: 烏克蘭為何將遠程打擊重點放在俄羅斯油氣設施上？ | DW新聞 (Why Ukraine focuses its long-range strikes on Russian oil infrastructure | DW News)
Uploaded: 2025-12-12T16:55:02.000Z
Duration: 14 min 51 s

Russian forces pounding Ukrainian front lines.

Moscow says it has taken control of the key city of Pokrovsk.

莫斯科表示已控制聶伯羅彼得羅夫斯克這座關鍵城市。

After months of brutal combat, Ukraine says its forces still hang on to a sliver of the city.

經過數月的慘烈戰鬥，烏克蘭表示其部隊仍堅守著這座城市的極小部分。

Taking Pokrovsk, which sits at a key road and rail crossroads, was a priority for Russia.

聶伯羅彼得羅夫斯克位於重要的陸路和鐵路交匯點，俄羅斯將其攻下視為優先目標。

Russian forces are now trying to encircle Konstantinivka.

俄軍正試圖包圍康斯坦丁諾夫卡。

Taking both cities would make it easier to access Kramatorsk and Sloviansk.

攻下這兩座城市將有助於更容易地進入克拉馬託爾斯克和斯洛維揚斯克。

Russia controls just over 19% of Ukrainian territory, however, just 1% more than the end of 2022.

俄羅斯控制了烏克蘭僅超過19%的領土，但僅比2022年底增加了1%。

Most of those gains came this year, while taking almost 400,000 casualties.

今年大部分的進展都伴隨著近40萬的傷亡。

Ukraine is suffering from a shortage of manpower and worsening morale.

烏克蘭正遭受兵力短缺和士氣低落的困擾。

But the frontline is saturated with killer drones, making quick Russian advances almost impossible.

但前線充斥著殺手無人機，讓俄羅斯的快速進攻幾乎不可能。

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has been pressing allies to keep supplies flowing.

烏克蘭總統澤倫斯基一直敦促盟友持續提供補給品。

烏克蘭值得享有有尊嚴的和平。

And whether there will be peace depends on Russia, on our collective pressure on Russia, and

而和平是否會實現，取決於俄羅斯，取決於我們對俄羅斯的集體壓力，以及

on the correct negotiating positions of the United States, Europe and all our other partners.

美國、歐洲以及我們所有其他夥伴的正確談判立場。

Far behind the front lines, Russia has again ramped up its attacks on Ukraine's energy and heating infrastructure to record levels.

在前線的遙遠後方，俄羅斯再次將對烏克蘭能源和供暖基礎設施的攻擊提升到創紀錄的水準。

As winter starts to bite, many regions have suffered rolling blackouts and emergency power cuts, including the capital.

隨著冬天開始嚴峻，包括首都基輔在內的許多地區都遭受了輪流停電和緊急斷電。

People in Kyiv have been getting electricity for only about 10 hours a day.

基輔的居民每天只能獲得大約10小時的電力。

Ukraine is meanwhile stepping up its own attacks on Russia's oil sector in an effort to cut off Russia's ability to finance the war.

同時，烏克蘭正在加強對俄羅斯石油部門的攻擊，試圖切斷俄羅斯為戰爭融資的能力。

Last month saw the most attacks so far, mainly conducted by drones on refineries and storage sites in Russia itself.

上個月的攻擊次數最多，主要是使用無人機攻擊俄羅斯境內的煉油廠和儲存設施。

Ukraine has also started to attack oil tankers in the Black Sea using sea drones.

烏克蘭也開始使用海面無人機攻擊黑海的油輪。

Russian President Vladimir Putin threatened to target Ukrainian ports and commercial vessels, as well as ships belonging to Ukraine's supporters.

俄羅斯總統普丁威脅要攻擊烏克蘭的港口和商業船隻，以及屬於烏克蘭支持者的船隻。

If that continues, well, the most radical option is to cut Ukraine off from the sea.

如果這種情況持續下去，那麼最極端的選擇就是將烏克蘭與海洋隔絕。

I hope that Ukrainian military leadership, the political leadership and those behind them will consider whether it's worth continuing this practice.

我希望烏克蘭的軍事領導層、政治領導層以及他們背後的人會考慮這種做法是否值得繼續。

Both sides are trying to hit the other as hard as possible as the US and Europe prepare different peace plans, trying to secure the most favorable terms they can get.

雙方都在盡可能猛烈地打擊對方，而美國和歐洲則在準備不同的和平計畫，試圖爭取他們能獲得的最有利條件。

我們現在可以連線採訪 Marina Moran。

She's a military analyst in the Department of Defence Studies at King's College, London.

她是倫敦國王學院國防研究系的軍事分析師。

Do you see any significant changes on the battlefield since these negotiations this back and forth started?

妳有看到自從這些來來回回的談判開始後，戰場上有什麼重大的改變嗎？

What we're seeing on the battlefield is essentially a continuation of what we have been seeing in the past months, namely Russia's offensive into multiple directions, including the obelisk of Dimoropetrovsk, including Zaporizhzhia.

我們在戰場上看到的，基本上是延續過去幾個月的態勢，也就是俄羅斯從多個方向發動攻勢，包括第聶伯羅彼得羅夫斯克、包括札波羅熱。

我們也看到了聶伯羅彼得羅夫斯克。

So the fact that such cities such as Pokrovsk are now appearing more frequently in the news.

所以像聶伯羅彼得羅夫斯克這樣的城市，現在在新聞中出現的頻率越來越高。

The Ukrainian side is denying is an effort of many months, if not years.

烏克蘭方面則否認，這是數月，甚至數年的努力。

So essentially, of course, the Russians will try to push as much as they can during this time and continue offensive.

所以基本上，俄羅斯當然會在這段時間盡可能地推進，並持續進攻。

That being said, I don't know in how far we will be seeing immediate results from the actions because it always takes time.

話雖如此，我不知道我們會在多大程度上看到這些行動的立即成果，因為這總是需要時間。

Ukraine has increasingly taken aim at Russia's infrastructure.

烏克蘭越來越頻繁地瞄準俄羅斯的基礎設施。

There have been attacks on oil refineries and tankers at sea.

這會損害俄羅斯的戰爭經濟嗎？

Is this having a real effect that's being felt?

In order to be able to say whether the attacks on Russian shadow fleet and Russian oil production facilities are having an effect, you would have to construct a statistical model and see how much effect those attacks do have.

為了判斷攻擊俄羅斯的影子船隊和俄羅斯石油生產設施是否有效，你需要建立一個統計模型，看看這些攻擊有多大的效果。

So it is impossible to say because the Russian economy is suffering.

所以無法確定，因為俄羅斯經濟正在遭受損失。

So it's very difficult to construct a causal relationship between the attacks and the effect on the Russian economy.

所以很難建立攻擊與對俄羅斯經濟影響之間的因果關係。

That being said, of course, given Ukraine's situation and given its capabilities, Ukraine's military intelligence as well as security services have been trying to find other ways to weaken Russia's resolve on the one hand, on the other hand, to weaken the economy further, arguing basically that Western sanctions are not doing their job and Ukraine should be taking it into its own hands and do whatever it can to at least create some sort of damage.

儘管如此，當然，考慮到烏克蘭的處境和能力，烏克蘭軍事情報和安全部門一方面一直在尋找削弱俄羅斯決心的其他方法，另一方面，進一步削弱經濟，基本上認為西方制裁沒有發揮作用，烏克蘭應該自己動手，盡一切可能至少造成一些損害。

And again, we also have to remember that this is a sequential strategy.

再說一次，我們也必須記住，這是一個循序漸進的策略。

所以十次攻擊不會有太大影響。

But if it is continued over a prolonged period of time, it might have an effect.

但如果長期持續下去，可能會產生效果。

But this is a kind of a long term effect that we might be able to see and to study later on.

但這是一種我們可能稍後才能看到和研究的長期影響。

As of now, it is psychological, of course, it is informational.

就目前而言，這當然是心理上的，也是資訊上的。

Winter is arriving, it's December, the weather's going to get worse in the coming months.

冬天快到了，現在是十二月，未來幾個月天氣會變得更糟。

Does that favor the attacker or the defender?

It favors the best prepared side, quite simply because preparations for winter campaigns do not start in December.

這很簡單，對準備最充分的一方有利，因為冬季戰役的準備工作不是在十二月才開始。

They start and each side is preparing for winter operations, changing to winter uniforms, getting lubricating vehicles, and

而是從現在開始，雙方都在為冬季作戰做準備，更換冬季制服，潤滑車輛，以及

So it's quite an extensive operation to prepare for winter offensive or defensive operations, depending on which side we're looking at.

所以，無論是進攻還是防守，為冬季作戰做準備都是一項相當龐大的工程，取決於我們從哪個角度來看。

話雖如此，這是有區別的，但是

it's probably not easier than attacking or defending in spring where you have a lot of mud.

這可能不像春天那樣容易進攻或防守，因為春天到處都是泥濘。

So from that perspective, I would say it depends on who prepared better for winter.

所以從這個角度來看，我認為這取決於誰為冬天做好了更充分的準備。

來自倫敦國王學院的 Marina Maran。

Marina，一如既往，非常感謝您。

We can now talk to Simon Diggins, defence and security analyst and a former British army officer.

我們現在可以和國防安全分析師、前英國陸軍軍官 Simon Diggins 聊聊了。

Simon, in your opinion, which side is currently more successful in improving its negotiating position through acts on the battlefield direction, the battlefield?

Simon，在你認為，目前哪一方在透過戰場上的行動來改善其談判立場方面更為成功，戰場方向，戰場？

I think the real issue in terms of who is actually winning or losing is who the strategic partners and supporters are.

我認為真正決定誰輸誰贏的關鍵，在於誰是策略夥伴和支持者。

I think at that point we have a position where Russia has pulled through negotiation and through shared common interests, appear to support America rather more than it has supported in terms of its support.

我認為在那一點上，俄羅斯透過談判和共同利益，似乎比美國更支持美國，而非美國支持俄羅斯。

So the battlefield is a very, very close fight the whole time.

所以戰場上一直是一場非常、非常激烈的戰鬥。

For example, the city of Cross, which was mentioned in, in your report, the Russians been trying to get hold of that for 18 months, and

例如，您報告中提到的那個城市，俄羅斯人已經試圖控制它長達18個月，

the literally hundreds of thousands of casualties as a result.

So what really counts is who's making the big changes at the operational and at the street level on that point.

所以真正重要的是，誰在戰術和街頭層面做出了重大改變。

At the moment, I would say Russia has the advantage.

When we look at the advantage, the advances that Russia is making on the battlefields, they have been very slow.

當我們看到俄羅斯在戰場上的進攻，進展其實非常緩慢。

你剛剛提到了聶伯羅彼得羅夫斯克。

They have been limited and extremely costly, of course.

當然，這些進展都受到限制，而且代價極其高昂。

I think in terms of the role of attrition sometimes is not just to bring down casualties, but

我認為消耗戰的作用有時候不只是造成傷亡，

And that's where Russia has the advantage in terms of resources, in terms of its manpower, It's a much larger country than Ukraine.

在這方面，俄羅斯在資源和兵力上佔有優勢，因為它比烏克蘭大得多。

It has, has the economy to, to match and it has the manpower to match.

它有足夠的經濟能力和兵力來應對。

So that's the real, that's the advantage that Russia over this.

這就是俄羅斯真正擁有的優勢。

I mean, but we shouldn't underestimate the kind of the pain that these casualties are causing within Russia.

不過，我們也不該低估這些傷亡對俄羅斯造成的痛苦。

Over a million killed and wounded so far in this campaign, but

這次戰役至今已造成超過百萬人傷亡，但

they're getting over it by paying people lots of money to fight for them.

他們透過支付高額金錢來讓別人為他們戰鬥，來克服這些問題。

So I think people are looking at and going, you know what if I die, my family's going to be sorted out for life.

所以我認為大家都在想，你知道嗎，如果我死了，我的家人將一輩子無憂無慮。

And that's what they're looking to try and to try and do.

這就是他們試圖努力達成的目標。

But it means it makes for a very slow warfare on the ground itself.

但這也意味著地面戰鬥會變得非常緩慢。

I Think both sides have worked out modern warfare is this game of attrition, the use of drones, use of artillery, defense in depth, none of which makes for an easy operational breakthrough in order to achieve a decisive result on the battlefield.

我認為雙方都明白現代戰爭就是一場消耗戰，運用無人機、火砲，並採取縱深防禦，這些都無法讓戰場上的突破變得容易，以達成決定性的戰果。

Have combat dynamics changed at all since peace negotiations started?

和談開始後，戰鬥的動態有改變嗎？

I think not particularly, except that what we have seen is a ramping up of some attacks on, for example, infrastructure.

我認為沒有特別改變，除了我們看到一些攻擊力度的增強，例如針對基礎設施的攻擊。

So the Ukrainians at the moment are focusing a lot of their long range missile strikes on oil infrastructure and everything that goes alongside that.

所以烏克蘭目前正將許多遠程飛彈攻擊集中在石油基礎設施以及與之相關的一切上。