Name: 巴菲特最後的警告：「大多數人都沒料到接下來會發生什麼！」 ("Most People Have No Idea What Is Coming" – Warren Buffett's Last WARNING)
Uploaded: 2025-11-12T18:16:06.000Z
Duration: 14 min 14 s

程度副詞

Warren Buffett just sends a very powerful message to investors.

華倫·巴菲特剛向投資者傳達了一個非常強大的訊息。

未來進行式

This is his last letter to shareholders and he is no longer going to be writing those letters to shareholders.

這是他寫給股東的最後一封信，他將不再寫這些給股東的信了。

轉承詞

And this is a disaster for Berkshire Hathaway because investors have been in Berkshire since they believed in Warren Buffett.

這對 Berkshire Hathaway 來說是一場災難，因為投資者一直以來都因為相信華倫·巴菲特而投資 Berkshire。

This is the man that willed Berkshire Hathaway to a trillion dollar company and has built a personal fortune of $150 billion.

這位男人讓 Berkshire Hathaway 成為一家兆美元公司，並累積了 1500 億美元的個人財富。

If there is somebody that you're going to trust your money with, it's Warren Buffett and not someone else.

如果你要把錢託付給某個人，那個人一定是華倫·巴菲特，而不是別人。

And he's no longer going to be writing the annual shareholders.

It means like he is entirely getting out of this business.

這意味著他將完全退出這項業務。

So let's go through the annual letter and take a look at what is the final message that Warren Buffett is trying to convey to the shareholders.

所以，讓我們一起來看看這封年度信函，看看華倫·巴菲特想傳達給股東的最終訊息是什麼。

He starts the annual letter by saying that Warren Buffett has converted 1800 shares of Class B to Class B in order to give this B shares to four family foundations.

他在年度信函開頭說，華倫·巴菲特已將 1800 股 B 類股轉換為 B 類股，以便將這些 B 類股贈予四個家庭基金會。

There are two types of Berkshire Hathaway stocks, Class A, and they are worth about $744,000.

Berkshire Hathaway 有兩種股票，A 類股，它們的價值約為 744,000 美元。

Stock a single Class A worth probably more than your entire house.

一股 A 類股的價值可能就超過你整棟房子的價格。

That's because Berkshire Hathaway never split their stocks.

這是因為 Berkshire Hathaway 從未分割過股票。

Usually when a company grows and they have the price of the stocks continues to grow.

通常一家公司成長，股價也會持續上漲。

The company usually splits that stocks into 2 to 1 or 5 to 1.

公司通常會將股票分割成 2 比 1 或 5 比 1。

這樣一來，一股就變成五股了。

But now the price of the stock was divided by five as well.

但現在股價也跟著被除以五了。

And that is usually made because companies want to keep their stock price liquid in the market.

這通常是因為公司希望讓股票在市場上保持流動性。

If the price of the stock worth like a million dollars, you're less likely to buy and sell it.

如果一股價值一百萬美元，你就不太可能買賣它。

But if it worth less than $500, then it's gonna be far more traded than the market.

但如果價值低於 500 美元，它在市場上的交易就會活躍得多。

And that's why Warren Buffett or Berkshire Hathaway has two types of stocks, Class A and class B.

這也是為什麼 Warren Buffett 或 Berkshire Hathaway 有兩種股票，A 類股和 B 類股。

So he basically converted about $1 Billion of class A into class B.

所以他基本上把大約 10 億美元的 A 類股轉換成了 B 類股。

Then he continues to say that I will no longer be writing Berkshire's annual letters.

然後他繼續說，我將不再撰寫 Berkshire 的年度信函。

It means that Greg Abel, who is the current CEO, will become the real boss and he will control the entire Berkshire.

這意味著現任執行長 Greg Abel 將成為真正的老闆，他將掌控整個 Berkshire。

And he talks a lot about that because he is emphasizing the fact that I'm too old to take care of this.

他對此說了很多，因為他想強調我太老了，無法處理這些事情。

So he literally spends a big chunk of the letter just saying that I am lucky that I made it up until 95.

所以他把信函的很大一部分都用來表示，我很幸運能活到 95 歲。

Life expectancy in the US is about 78 years.

See, if you make it past the 78, you are already lucky.

你看，如果你能活過 78 歲，你已經很幸運了。

And if you make it past the 90 then you are incredibly lucky.

如果你活過了 90 歲，那你就是超級幸運。

So if you are working past the 90 years old, then you are incredibly hard working and you have pretty much an amazing work ethics.

所以如果你超過 90 歲還在工作，那你真的非常勤奮，而且有著令人驚嘆的職業道德。

And up until recently he was literally the CEO of the business.

而且直到最近，他都還是公司的執行長。

He continues the letter by saying how grateful he is for his entire life and he met some of the most incredible people that help him to build his business in his hometown, Omaha, for example.

他在信中接著說，他對自己的一生感到多麼感激，而且他在家鄉奧馬哈遇到了一些最不可思議的人，幫助他建立事業，例如。

This is a very interesting coincidence that he met Charlie, who is almost seven years older than him, back in 1940.

這是一個非常有趣的巧合，他在 1940 年遇到了 Charlie，他幾乎比他大七歲。

He was working at Warren Buffett's grandfather's grocery store earning $2 for a 10 hour day.

他當時在 Warren Buffett 的爺爺的雜貨店工作，一天 10 小時，賺取 2 美元。

They didn't meet back in the days, but it's really interesting.

他們當時沒有見面，但這真的很特別。

What a coincidence that they met later on in life.

And Warren Buffett gives him a lot of credit that Charlie was there to advise him.

而 Warren Buffett 非常感謝 Charlie 在旁給予建議。

And without Charlie he would not be able to build such successful business.

沒有 Charlie，他無法建立如此成功的事業。

These people were Young back in 1940 when World War II was taking place and they have seen so many things throughout their life.

這些人 1940 年還年輕，當時第二次世界大戰正在進行，他們一生中經歷了好多事。

I cannot possibly imagine somebody was alive and was pretty much conscious in 1940 and still alive today.

我簡直無法想像有人在 1940 年還活著且意識清楚，到現在還活著。

從那時起，第二次世界大戰發生了。

The United States was on the gold standard and Nixon abandoned the gold standard.

美國當時還在金本位，後來 Nixon 廢除了金本位。

The great inflation of 1970s, 2008, financial crisis, the dot com bubble, you name it.

1970 年代的嚴重通貨膨脹、2008 年金融危機、網路保麗龍等等，你想得到的都有。

He goes on with the letter and thanks a lot of people that he met throughout his life.

他在信中繼續感謝他一生中遇到的許多人。

But most importantly, he states that he also met the president of Coca Cola.

但最重要的是，他提到他也遇到了可口可樂的總裁。

That earned Berkshire Hathaway dozens of billions of dollars, especially when Berkshire was a smaller company.

這為 Berkshire Hathaway 賺進了數十億美元，尤其是在 Berkshire 還是一家小公司的時候。

Just like Charlie Greg Abel, who is the current CEO, he also lived a few blicks away from Warren Buffett back in the days when he was living in Omaha.

就像現任執行長 Charlie Greg Abel 一樣，當年他住在奧馬哈時，離 Warren Buffett 也只隔了幾個街區。

Well, he actually talks a lot about the fact that maybe he was simply lucky.

嗯，他其實說了很多關於他可能只是幸運的事。

Maybe he simply met so many incredible people and if he didn't meet Charlie, Greg or many other great, he might not be able to build his business.

也許他只是遇到了太多了不起的人，如果沒有遇到 Charlie、Greg 或許多其他偉人，他可能無法建立他的事業。

He might not be able to become one of the wealthiest people in history.

他可能無法成為史上最富有的人之一。

He goes on to talk about that there are three times that he almost died that he didn't actually make it.

他接著說，有三次他差點喪命，但都撐了過來。

But thanks to his doctors and a few other people, he made it.

但多虧了他的醫生和其他幾個人，他活了下來。

So if he actually died a bit earlier, then he wouldn't be the greatest investor of all time.

所以如果他早逝，他就無法成為史上最偉大的投資者。

There isn't literally any investor that would even come close to Warren Buffett.

沒有任何投資者能與 Warren Buffett 相比。

That built his personal fortune to $150 billion just by invest investing in the stock market.

他僅透過投資股票市場，就累積了 1500 億美元的個人財富。

He even goes on to say that those who reach old age need a huge dose of good luck.

他甚至說，長壽的人需要大量的運氣。

In many heavily populated parts of the world, I would likely have had a miserable life, and

在世界上許多人口稠密的地區，我可能過著悲慘的生活，

my sisters would have had one even worse.

He basically states that my life is simply that I am lucky.

他基本上說，我的人生就是因為我幸運。

I met the right people, and that allowed me to be so successful.

我遇到了對的人，這才讓我如此成功。

這就是為什麼，謝謝妳，幸運女神。

If it wasn't for luck, I wouldn't be the person that I am today.

如果沒有運氣，我今天就不會是現在的我。

Even though that he worked incredibly hard to be what he is.

即使他非常努力地工作才有了今天的成就。

Then he goes on, says, what is next for Berkshire Hathaway?

接著他說，接下來 Berkshire Hathaway 有什麼計畫？

First of all, he is emphasizing on the fact that I need to step up the pace of lifetime gifts to their three foundations.

首先，他強調我需要加快對他們三個家庭基金會的終身捐贈速度。

He multiple times donated dozens of billions of dollars.

And if Warren Buffett did not donate a single dime throughout his lifetime, he probably would be a lot wealthier than he is today, because he literally donated probably like 30 or 40 billion dollars throughout his lifetime.

而且如果華倫·巴菲特一生中沒有捐贈一毛錢，他現在可能比現在富裕得多，因為他一生中確實捐贈了大概三、四十億美元。

And he's saying that, wait a Second, I have $150 billion, and

而且他說，等等，我還有 1500 億美元，

我承諾會把這些錢全部捐出去。

And now I'm 95 years old, and I haven't done that yet.

So maybe you're gonna see some activities where I will be selling some of my shares in order to make these donations.

所以你可能會看到一些行動，我會賣掉一些我的股份來做這些捐贈。

I won't be selling a lot of A shares because I want investors to be confident that I trust Greg.

我不會賣掉很多 A 類股，因為我希望投資者相信我信任 Greg。

And just like Charlie did, if I'm gonna suddenly start selling my A shares and investors would panic because they're like, look at Warren Buffett.

就像 Charlie 一樣，如果我突然開始賣掉我的 A 類股，投資者就會恐慌，因為他們會想，看看華倫·巴菲特。

And he's simply using an excuse that he's gonna give it away.

他只是找個藉口說他要捐出去。

That's why A shares, I'm gonna keep them.

I'm not gonna sell a lot of them, so that investors will have faith in Greg.

我不會賣掉太多，這樣投資者就會對 Greg 有信心。

Until then, when the time comes in and Greg has proved himself and investors now trust him as much as they did.

在那之前，時機成熟，Greg 證明瞭他自己，投資者也像過去一樣信任他。

For example, Warren Buffett, then these shares most likely will be sold, have access to them, but

例如，華倫·巴菲特，那麼這些股票很可能會被賣掉，可以取得，但是

he is certainly going to sell some of his stocks.

That's why he's saying that the acceleration of my lifetime gifts to my children, foundations in no way reflects any change in my views about Berkshire's prospects.

這就是為什麼他說我這一生贈與我子女、基金會的加速，絲毫沒有反映出對 Berkshire 前景看法的任何改變。

Greg Abel has more than met the high expectations I for him had when I first thought he should be Berkshire's next CEO.

Greg Abel 完全達到了我最初認為他應該成為 Berkshire 下任執行長時對他抱有的高度期望。

So he's like, you will see me selling some of my stocks.

所以他說，你會看到我賣掉一些我的股票。

You will see me doing that because I gotta give some of that money to charity.

你會看到我這麼做，因為我必須把一部分錢捐給慈善機構。