Name: 92.8% 美國人為何永遠無法退休？！ (Why 92.8% of Americans Will Never Retire)
Uploaded: 2025-11-10T18:16:23.000Z
Duration: 12 min 50 s

If you are in your 20s, 30s, and 40s, and

如果你現在是二十幾歲、三十幾歲、四十幾歲，

未來簡單式

you have spent your entire life paying payroll tax, chances that you will be receiving Social Security benefits is close to zero.

而且你一輩子都在繳薪資稅，那麼你領得到社會安全給付的機率趨近於零。

祈使句型

Forget about the AI bubble or the housing crash.

別管什麼 AI 保麗龍或房市崩盤了。

The promise that you will have security in an old age just went down the drain.

你以為老了會有保障的承諾，就這樣泡湯了。

Social Security trust fund is raising the alarm.

社會安全信託基金正在發出警訊。

退休人員的預期壽命越來越長。

And the trust fund that's supposed to hold America's future is draining faster than anybody has expected.

而原本應該支撐美國未來的信託基金，正在以前所未有的速度枯竭。

Almost 78 million Americans are at risk of not receiving Social Security benefits in the foreseeable future.

近 7800 萬美國人面臨在可預見的未來領不到社會安全給付的風險。

And if you are in your 20s and 30s, then, then you literally can forget about it.

如果你現在是二十幾歲或三十幾歲，那你就真的可以不用想了。

This crisis is so big and so massive that the government does not even want to talk about it.

這場危機實在太巨大、太嚴重了，政府甚至不想談論它。

Because if we start talking about it, then serious action must be taken, and that is politically unpopular.

因為一旦我們開始談論，就必須採取嚴肅的行動，而這在政治上是不受歡迎的。

The entire Social Security system is based upon the fact that there are far more working people on one side than the number of people who are retiring you.

整個社會安全體系是建立在這樣一個事實上的：工作的人數遠多於退休的人數。

If you are living past 65, chances that you will live to 100 or 120 is very low.

如果你的預期壽命超過 65 歲，活到 100 或 120 歲的機率非常低。

While everyone else between the ages of 18 to 65 has to work and you must pay payroll taxes.

而所有 18 到 65 歲之間的人都必須工作，並且繳納薪資稅。

There is literally no other option around it.

If you don't do that, you are going to go to jail.

如果你不這麼做，你就會被關進牢裡。

But the system was created with the intention that whenever you pay Social Security taxes, that money will partially be invested in assets.

但這個體系建立的初衷是，你繳納社會安全稅時，這筆錢會部分投資於資產。

But those assets will be accumulating over time and growing, making you more money.

而這些資產會隨著時間累積並增長，為你賺取更多錢。

And then the Social Security trust fund at some point will be so wealthy that it will be able to pay for the retirement of everybody else, no matter how long they live and how many people on the other side are working.

到時候，社會安全信託基金將會非常充裕，足以支付所有其他人的終身俸，無論他們活多久，也無論有多少人在工作。

However, over time, we realize that there is only one way for this system to work.

然而，隨著時間的推移，我們意識到這個體系只有一種運作方式。

To always have the equation where you have far more working people than the number of people who are retiring.

永遠都要維持一個工作人口遠多於退休人口的方程式。

If this equation suddenly flips, then the entire system collapses because it is unsustainable.

如果這個方程式突然翻轉，整個體系就會崩潰，因為它無法持續。

There should be enough money coming in so that the system or the trust fund can pay to the retirees.

應該有足夠的資金流入，讓體系或信託基金能夠支付給退休人員。

When the system was created back in 1930s during the Great Depression, it worked because life expectancy was very low and the number of Americans who were working was far higher than the number of people could possibly even retire.

這個體系在 1930 年代大蕭條時期建立時，之所以能運作，是因為當時的預期壽命非常低，而且工作的美籍人士數量遠高於可能退休的人數。

In fact, the ratio was between 42 to 1 for every retired person 42 people would be in the workforce.

事實上，當時的比例是每位退休人員有 42 位在職人員。

And that's because life expectancy back in the days was 62 and the retirement age was 65.

那是因為當時的預期壽命是 62 歲，而退休年齡是 65 歲。

So it was literally a scam since day one, because most people logically would not even live up to the point where, where they will be receiving Social Security benefits.

所以從一開始，這根本就是個騙局，因為大多數人邏輯上根本活不到領取社會安全給付的年紀。

Imagine you're spending your entire life from the age that you are 18 up to 62, which was the normal life expectancy back in the days.

想像一下，你從 18 歲到 62 歲，也就是當時的正常預期壽命，花了一輩子。

But then you had to wait another three years to finally start receiving Social Security benefits.

但你卻得再等三年才能開始領取社會安全給付。

So the point of the system was initially that those people who will make it past the age of 65, they will be receiving those Social Security benefits.

所以這個體系的初衷是，那些能活過 65 歲的人，才能領到社會安全給付。

And even then, it's not going to be full long because if you're going to live up to 70 or 73, you would be exceptional.

而且就算領了，時間也不會太長，因為如果你活到 70 或 73 歲，那就算很厲害了。

That is not something that usually is going to happen.

That's why if you look at the demographic pyramid of the United states back in 1940, suddenly you see that there were a lot of young people, there were a lot of people who were in the workforce, but

這就是為什麼如果你看看 1940 年美國的人口金字塔，你會突然發現有很多年輕人，有很多在職的人，

there were very few people past the age of 65.

So the idea behind it was that we had far more people working in the workforce than than the number of people who are retired.

所以這個體系的初衷是，我們有比退休人員多得多的在職人口。

And that's why the initial tax rate, or the payroll tax was simply 1%.

這也是為什麼最初的稅率，也就是薪資稅，僅僅是 1%。

You would pay 1% and your employer would pay 1%.

你會付 1%，你的僱主也會付 1%。

And that should be enough to pay for everybody.

這樣應該就足夠支付所有人的費用了。

In fact, the maximum amount of taxable income on payroll tax was just $3,000.

事實上，薪資稅最高應稅所得額只有 3,000 美元。

然而，隨著時間的推移，出現了一個問題。

As the US economy began to grow and people's life expectancy began to grow as well, People start to live far longer, and

隨著美國經濟開始成長，人們的預期壽命也開始增長，人們開始活得更久，

if you are living longer, then you will be receiving Social Security benefits for far longer.

而且如果你活得更久，你領取社會安全給付的時間也會更長。

If the life expectancy was 65 on average and now it's 75, most people would not receive the life, I mean the Social Security benefits.

如果平均預期壽命從 65 歲變成 75 歲，大部分人領不到社會安全給付。

But now they have to receive them for the next 10 years.

That forced the government to take action.

The only reason that the system did not collapse is because there were baby boomers.

這個系統之所以沒有崩潰，唯一的原因就是有嬰兒潮世代。

Between 1950s and 60s, a lot of people were born, so the ratio was still sustainable to a certain extent.

在 1950 到 60 年代，出生了很多人，所以比例在某種程度上仍然是可持續的。

However, they have increased the payroll tax from 1% to 6.2%.

然而，他們已將薪資稅從 1% 提高到 6.2%。

But in total, if you also take the employer's cut, that would be 12.4%.

但總共算起來，如果加上僱主的份，那就是 12.4%。

They have also increased the taxable income from $3,000 to $51,000.

他們也將應稅所得從 3,000 美元提高到 51,000 美元。

And they have also increased the retirement age from 65 to 67.

而且他們也將退休年齡從 65 歲提高到 67 歲。

Remember, the system only works when the math works out.

記住，這個系統只有在數學上可行時才能運作。

You can't be paying Social Security benefits if there isn't enough money that is coming into the trust fund from the working people from the workforce.

你不能在信託基金沒有足夠的錢從工作人口流入時，支付社會安全福利。

However, by 2020s, the entire situation got out of control.

然而，到了 2020 年代，整個情況已經失控。

It no longer looks like a demographic pyramid.

The number of people who are living past the age of 65 has increased dramatically since life expectancy has increased to 80 years per person.

隨著預期壽命提高到每人 80 歲，活過 65 歲的人數大幅增加。

If back in 1930s and 40s, the average person wouldn't actually live to receive their Social Security benefits.

如果在 1930 年代和 40 年代，一般人其實活不到領取社會安全福利。

Now, on average, the person will be receiving 18 years of Social Security benefits.

現在，平均來說，領取社會安全福利的時間是 18 年。

Actually, you need far more money getting into the system to make sure that the system is sustainable.

其實，你需要投入更多錢在這個系統裡，才能確保它的永續性。

And that's why they have increased the taxable income to $174,000.

這也是為什麼他們把應稅所得提高到 174,000 美元。

Recently, 76 million baby boomers are retiring.

最近，有 7,600 萬的嬰兒潮世代正在退休。

Baby boomers began to retire from 2010, and they will continue up until like 2032.

嬰兒潮世代從 2010 年開始退休，會一直持續到 2032 年左右。

And that's when the entire system is about to collapse because birth rates are collapsing at the same time.

這時候整個系統就快要崩潰了，因為出生率也在同時崩潰。

So the number of people who are getting in the workforce is shrinking while the number of people who are receiving Social Security benefits is rising.

所以，進入職場的人數正在減少，而領取社會安全福利的人數卻在增加。

You don't have to be a genius to understand the problem with this system.

你不需要是個天才就能明白這個系統的問題。

And this problem has been in the background for the last 20 years to 30 years.

這個問題已經在過去 20 到 30 年間一直存在了。

In 2024, about $1.4 trillion of payroll tax was paid into the Social Security.

2024 年，大約有 1.4 兆美元的薪資稅被繳入社會安全系統。

At the same time, the total amount of payments amounted to about $1.5 trillion.

同時，總支付金額約為 1.5 兆美元。

So basically, the trust is spending far more than it is actually earning.

所以基本上，這個信託基金的支出遠遠超過實際收入。

Which is why the Social Security trust fund began to sell its assets to ensure that everybody can receive his Social Security benefits.

這也是為什麼社會安全信託基金開始出售資產，以確保每個人都能領到他們的社會安全福利。

而且這從 2010 年就開始發生了。

And according to experts and analyze, Social Security trust fund is going to run out of these assets by 2032 or 2033.

根據專家分析，社會安全信託基金最晚會在 2032 年或 2033 年耗盡這些資產。

And at that time, the trust fund will only be able to make as many payments as much money is coming in.

到時候，信託基金只能支付與進帳金額相符的款項。

And from that moment onwards, if we don't fix the birth rates with each consecutive year, the total amount of Social Security benefits will continue shrinking.

從那一刻起，如果我們沒有逐年改善出生率，社會安全福利的總額將會持續縮減。

You lets people to get into the country because when they get in, they start working and they immediately start paying payroll tax.

你讓人民進入國家，因為他們進來後，就會開始工作，並立即開始繳納薪資稅。

And that's what the United States was very open with.

這就是美國一直以來非常開放的政策。

Its migration policies, at least for the last 50 years.

它的移民政策，至少是過去50年來的。

Since 1970s, when this problem was arising, politicians made it easier to migrate to the United States.

自從1970年代這個問題開始出現以來，政治人物就讓移民到美國變得更容易了。

And that's why since then the number of migrations have exploded.

這就是為什麼從那時起，移民人數爆炸性成長。

And now they represent a huge percentage of American population and American society.

而現在他們佔美國人口和美國社會的很大比例。

Because the type of people who migrate are usually people above 18 years old.

因為移民的類型通常是18歲以上的人。

And these are not the people who are coming to ritual in the United States.

而這些人不是來美國「儀式」的。

These are the people who have already went to schools, they went to kindergartens.

這些人是已經上過學校、上過幼稚園的人。

So other nations have invested in these people.

所以其他國家已經在這些人身上投資了。

But instead of working in those nations and paying payroll taxes in those countries, they're migrating to the United States and paying taxes in the United States which are maintaining the Social Security system in the U.S.

但他們沒有在那些國家工作並繳納薪資稅，反而移民到美國，並在美國繳稅，維持了美國的社會安全體系。

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92.8% 美國人為何永遠無法退休？！ (Why 92.8% of Americans Will Never Retire)

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