Name: 沃倫-巴菲特准備迎接類似 1929 年的大崩盤 (Warren Buffett Preparing For A Crash Like 1929)
Uploaded: 2025-08-25T17:58:09.000Z
Duration: 12 min 59 s

Warren Buffett is massively selling all of his stocks, if you take a look at his portfolio, you will find out that he is sitting on 325 billion dollars worth of cash.

沃倫-巴菲特正在大量拋售他的所有股票，如果你看一下他的投資組合，就會發現他坐擁價值 3250 億美元的現金。

程度副詞

In fact, if you take a look at his actions over the last 12 months, you will find out that he wasn't actually buying almost anything but rather his main focus was sell as much stocks as possible.

事實上，如果你看一下他在過去 12 個月裡的行動，就會發現他實際上幾乎沒有買進任何東西，而是把主要精力放在儘可能多地賣出股票上。

情態副詞

But that doesn't make sense because if you take a look at the market, Trump is now the president of the united states, the fed is lowering the rates, everybody is investing and the US economy is growing like never before, but on the other hand, if you take a look at what Warren Buffett is doing, he is not buying it, he is actually selling everything that he could and now he is sitting on the largest cash portfolio that anybody can ever have.

但這並不合理，因為如果你看看市場，特朗普現在是美國總統，美聯儲正在降低利率，每個人都在投資，美國經濟正以前所未有的速度增長，但另一方面，如果你看看沃倫-巴菲特在做什麼，他並沒有買，他實際上是在賣掉所有能賣的東西，現在他正坐擁任何人都不可能擁有的最大的現金投資組合。

So that lead me to ask myself a question, why exactly is he selling when everyone else is buying?

於是，我問自己一個問題：為什麼別人都在買，他卻在賣？

Does he expect a crash or is there something that he knows that everyone else is missing?

是他預料到會發生撞車事故，還是他知道有什麼其他人都不知道的事情？

So let's dive in deep into his portfolio and figure out if he is expecting a crash or maybe there is something else that he knows that everyone else doesn't.

是以，讓我們深入研究一下他的投資組合，看看他是否預計會出現崩盤，或者他是否知道一些其他人不知道的事情。

If you are ready, give this video a thumbs up and let's dive in.

如果您準備好了，請為這段視頻豎起大拇指，讓我們一起深入瞭解。

The total amount of Warren Buffett's portfolio is around 623 billion dollars.

巴菲特的投資組合總額約為 6 230 億美元。

So at first glance, it seems like business as usual, but if you dig deep, you will find out that 297 billion dollars of that are stocks, while everything else, which is 325 billion dollars, are in cash reserves.

乍一看，似乎一切照舊，但如果深入研究，就會發現其中 2 970 億美元是股票，而其他 3 250 億美元都是現金儲備。

That's not what professional investors usually do.

Because keeping money in cash doesn't make sense, you are simply losing to inflation.

因為把錢存在現金裡是沒有意義的，你只是輸給了通貨膨脹。

You want to put your money to work, you want your money to be invested in a company that consistently grows, or at least pays you in dividends, that's the entire point of investments.

你想讓你的錢發揮作用，你想讓你的錢投資在一家能持續增長的公司，或者至少能給你分紅，這就是投資的全部意義。

That's why investors usually keep anything between 10 to 30 percent at best in cash reserves, but even 30 percent is a lot.

這就是為什麼投資者通常最多保留 10% 到 30% 的現金儲備，但即使是 30% 也不少。

And if you take a look at what Warren Buffett has been doing consistently over his entire career, he has been low in cash for as long as possible, unless there was something wrong with the market.

如果你看看沃倫-巴菲特在其整個職業生涯中的一貫做法，除非市場出了什麼問題，否則他都會盡可能長時間地持有低現金。

His top positions are Apple, Bank of America, Coca-Cola, Chevron, and a long list of other companies that he has consistently been investing in.

他持倉最多的公司是蘋果、美國銀行、可口可樂、雪佛龍，以及一長串他一直在投資的其他公司。

In fact, his investing strategy is very simple and he has been consistent with that strategy for a very long time.

事實上，他的投資策略非常簡單，而且長期以來始終如一。

In fact, since 2016, when he found out that Apple is a great business, he threw into that company billions of dollars.

事實上，自 2016 年以來，當他發現蘋果是一個偉大的企業時，他就向該公司投入了數十億美元。

And when he was asked why is he doing something like that, he made it clear, Apple is the greatest business that he has ever seen.

當有人問他為什麼要這樣做時，他明確表示，蘋果是他見過的最偉大的企業。

Since then, he has purchased 915 million shares out of Apple, which made him one of the largest investors in Apple.

此後，他又從蘋果公司購買了 9.15 億股股票，成為蘋果公司最大的投資者之一。

In fact, if you take a look at the filings, by the end of 2024, his shares of Apple has decreased from 915 million shares down to 300 million shares, which means that over the last 2 years alone, he has sold almost 75 percent of his entire portfolio in Apple.

事實上，如果你看一下文件，到 2024 年底，他持有的蘋果股份已經從 9.15 億股減少到 3 億股，這意味著僅在過去兩年裡，他就賣掉了整個蘋果投資組合中近 75% 的股份。

So if Warren Buffett on one side believes that Apple is the greatest business he has ever seen, on the other side, he is selling the stocks of the greatest business, that doesn't make sense.

是以，如果沃倫-巴菲特一邊認為蘋果是他見過的最偉大的企業，另一邊卻在拋售最偉大企業的股票，這就說不通了。

Because if you know anything about Warren Buffett, he never simply invests in a business.

因為如果你瞭解沃倫-巴菲特，就會知道他從不簡單地投資於一家企業。

Before throwing his money into any business, he asks himself a very simple question, will I keep investing in this business for the next 10, 20, 30 years or probably forever?

在將資金投入任何企業之前，他都會問自己一個非常簡單的問題：我是否會在未來 10 年、20 年、30 年甚至永遠投資於這家企業？

And if the answer is yes, that is the only case he would throw his money into that business.

如果答案是肯定的，那麼只有在這種情況下，他才會把錢投到那家公司。

Yes, later on, he would actually get rid of his stocks if something actually changes, if the stock is overvalued, but in the beginning, that's the perspective he went into that business.

是的，後來，如果情況確實發生了變化，如果股票價值被高估，他就會拋掉股票，但在一開始，他就是從這個角度進入這個行業的。

Because those 615 million shares that he sold, if you take them and compare them to the market price right now, that's around 141 billion dollars.

因為他賣出的 6.15 億股，如果拿它們與現在的市價相比，大約是 1,410 億美元。

So in the last 2 years alone, he has sold 141 billion dollars worth of Apple stocks, and we did not even talk about other stocks that he actually sold, because he also sold a lot of his stocks from Bank of America.

是以，僅在過去兩年裡，他就賣出了價值 1410 億美元的蘋果股票，我們甚至還沒有談到他實際賣出的其他股票，因為他還賣出了大量美國銀行的股票。

He also sold around 40 million shares in BYD, one of the greatest business investments he has ever made.

他還出售了約 4000 萬股比亞迪股票，這是他所做過的最偉大的商業投資之一。

And some companies, he completely abandoned them, he literally just got rid of everything and he is no longer investing in those companies, such as Paramount Global, HP and a few other companies.

還有一些公司，他完全拋棄了它們，從字面上看，他只是擺脫了一切，不再投資這些公司，比如派拉蒙全球公司、惠普和其他一些公司。

And what struck me the most was Bank of America, because he is a big fan of investing in the financial sector, that's where he made most of his money, and Bank of America has always been the center of his investments, and right now, he is literally abandoning Bank of America.

讓我印象最深的是美國銀行 因為他非常喜歡投資金融業 他的大部分錢都是從那裡賺來的 美國銀行一直是他的投資中心 而現在 他真的要放棄美國銀行了

What exactly is happening here, is he expecting like a financial Armageddon, is the stock market is going to collapse.

到底發生了什麼，他是否在期待一場金融大決戰，股市是否會崩潰。

That is a good question to ask yourself, because we are not talking about some random investor out there, we are talking about the greatest investor of all time, the person who has built a huge fortune just by investing in the stock market.

這是一個很好的自問自答的問題，因為我們現在談論的不是某個隨便的投資者，我們談論的是有史以來最偉大的投資者，一個僅僅通過投資股市就積累了鉅額財富的人。

I started digging deeper into his portfolio and his entire financial investment history, and I found out a lot of similarities between what he is doing today and what he has been doing in 2005, 6 and 7.

我開始深入研究他的投資組合和整個金融投資史，發現他今天所做的事情與 2005 年、6 年和 7 年所做的事情有很多相似之處。

In 2005, as Warren Buffet was analyzing the financial market, he began to worry, because most of his portfolio consisted of financial sector, most of his investments were in banks and insurance companies, and now from his analysis, the financial sector was no longer as stable as it was in the past.

2005 年，沃倫-巴菲特在分析金融市場時開始擔心，因為他的投資組合中大部分都是金融行業，大部分投資都是銀行和保險公司，而現在從他的分析來看，金融行業已經不再像過去那樣穩定了。

So between 2006 and 2007, he sold a lot of his stocks from Wells Fargo and other financial institutions where he was heavily invested in, but it wasn't just the financial sector, he sold a lot of his stocks from United Airlines, he sold his stocks from GM and GE and other prominent companies that he has been invested for decades.

是以，在 2006 年至 2007 年間，他賣出了大量富國銀行和其他他大量投資的金融機構的股票，但不僅僅是金融行業，他還賣出了大量美國聯合航空公司的股票，賣出了通用汽車和通用電氣以及其他他投資了幾十年的著名公司的股票。

And by the end of 2007, 40 percent of his entire portfolio consisted of cash, and other investors looked at Warren Buffet and they didn't really understand what exactly is happening, because in 2005, 6 and 7, the financial sector was booming, mortgage-backed securities were actually playing the most important role in the market, and the financial sector, especially the banks were making billions of dollars out of the mortgage-backed securities, and house prices were booming to the roof.

到 2007 年底，他的整個投資組合中有 40% 是現金，其他投資者看著沃倫-巴菲特，他們並不真正明白到底發生了什麼，因為在 2005、6 和 7 年，金融業蓬勃發展，抵押貸款支持證券實際上在市場中扮演著最重要的角色，金融業，尤其是銀行從抵押貸款支持證券中賺取了數十億美元，房價也漲到了頂峰。

So instead of actually taking advantage and making billions of dollars out of these financial institutions, he started massively selling off all of his stocks.

是以，他並沒有真正利用這些金融機構賺取數十億美元，而是開始大規模拋售所有股票。

And this was for the first time Warren Buffet was sitting on so much cash in his entire lifetime, in his entire investing career, where 40 percent out of his entire portfolio consisted of pure cash.

這是沃倫-巴菲特有生以來第一次坐擁如此多的現金，在他的整個投資生涯中，整個投資組合中有 40% 是純現金。

While everybody was criticizing Warren Buffet for staying aside and not making billions of dollars like everyone else, 2008 actually happened and the entire financial market collapsed.

當所有人都在責備沃倫-巴菲特置身事外，沒有像其他人一樣賺取數十億美元時，2008 年真的發生了，整個金融市場崩潰了。

Stocks went down, giant financial institutions that existed for hundreds of years suddenly tried to declare bankruptcy because they did not simply have the cash to continue running.

股票下跌，存在了數百年的巨型金融機構突然試圖宣佈破產，因為它們根本沒有現金繼續運行。

The crisis was so big that it not only just got down the US economy, but the entire global economy was down because of this crisis, while Warren Buffet was sitting on 47 billion dollars of cash.

這場危機如此之大，以至於它不僅拖垮了美國經濟，整個全球經濟都因這場危機而下滑，而沃倫-巴菲特卻坐擁 470 億美元現金。

And that gave him the opportunity to leverage his position and save some of these banks and take advantage out of him.

這讓他有機會利用自己的地位，拯救其中一些銀行，並從他身上撈取好處。

Yes, the government stepped in and saved a lot of these financial corporations because if they didn't do that, most of these companies would have declared bankruptcy and millions of jobs would be lost.

是的，政府介入並拯救了許多金融公司，因為如果他們不這樣做，這些公司中的大多數都會宣佈破產，數百萬人將失去工作。

And one of the greatest investments that Warren Buffet made was in Goldman Sachs.

巴菲特最偉大的投資之一就是投資高盛。

Warren Buffet gave a 5 billion dollar lifeline to Goldman Sachs, where he purchased their stock at 115 dollars.

沃倫-巴菲特向高盛提供了 50 億美元的救命錢，他以 115 美元的價格購買了高盛的股票。

That deal was so great for Warren Buffet that Goldman Sachs had to pay Warren Buffet a 10 percent annual dividends for the next 5 years.

這筆交易對沃倫-巴菲特來說是如此之大，以至於高盛不得不在接下來的 5 年裡每年向沃倫-巴菲特支付 10% 的股息。

So he is getting 2.5 billion dollars in pure cash just from Goldman Sachs.

是以，僅從高盛集團，他就能獲得 25 億美元的純現金。

And if you compare the stock price of Goldman Sachs back in the days and today, today its worth 625 dollars, so his 5 billion dollars grew to 27 billion dollars.

如果將高盛當年的股價與今天的股價相比，今天的股價為 625 美元，那麼他的 50 億美元就增長到了 270 億美元。

But that deal also allowed Warren Buffet to buy an extra 5 billion dollars worth of Goldman Sachs stocks at the same price of 115.

但這筆交易也讓巴菲特以 115 美元的價格額外購買了價值 50 億美元的高盛股票。

So his total investment to today has grown to almost 55 billion dollars, which made it one of the greatest investments.

是以，到今天為止，他的投資總額已增長到近 550 億美元，成為最偉大的投資之一。

But it wasn't just Goldman Sachs, it was Wells Fargo, it was General Electric and a long list of other companies that owed Warren Buffet billions of dollars because he had the cash when all of these companies were running out of cash and were about to declare bankruptcy.

但不僅僅是高盛，還有富國銀行、通用電氣以及一長串欠巴菲特數十億美元的其他公司，因為當所有這些公司都耗盡現金、即將宣佈破產時，巴菲特卻擁有現金。

And by the end of 2008, Warren Buffet was on the top of the Forbes list and was the richest man ever with a net worth of 62 billion dollars making him the richest person in history back in the days.

2008 年底，沃倫-巴菲特以 620 億美元的淨資產榮登福布斯富豪榜榜首，成為史上最富有的人。

So if you compare his actions back in 2005, 2006 and 2007 to what he has been doing recently, you will see a lot of similarities.

是以，如果將他在 2005 年、2006 年和 2007 年的所作所為與他最近的所作所為進行比較，你會發現有很多相似之處。

Because since 2008, he hasn't been sitting on so much cash like he is sitting today.

因為自 2008 年以來，他就沒有像今天這樣坐擁這麼多現金。

And just like in 2006 and 2007, he was massively selling off most of his stocks, even the companies that he believed are great companies, but he still sold them because he was expecting a crash, he has been doing the exact same thing the last couple of years.

就像在 2006 年和 2007 年，他大量拋售自己的大部分股票，即使是那些他認為非常優秀的公司，也因為預期會發生股災而拋售了。

But the problem is that, now he is sitting on a much larger cash reserve than he was back in 2008.

但問題是，現在他坐擁的現金儲備比 2008 年時要多得多。

Because back in 2008, it was 40 to 60 percent, today, his cash positions represent over 50 percent of his entire portfolio.

因為 2008 年時，他的現金頭寸佔整個投資組合的 40% 到 60%，而如今，他的現金頭寸佔整個投資組合的 50% 以上。

Does that mean that Warren Buffet is expecting a much larger crash than it did back in 2008?

這是否意味著沃倫-巴菲特（Warren Buffet）預計會發生比 2008 年更嚴重的崩盤？

Imagine what would happen to the economy if the next crash is going to be much larger than it was the 2008 financial crisis.

試想一下，如果下一次崩盤的規模遠大於 2008 年的金融危機，經濟將會發生怎樣的變化。

The 2008 financial crisis is the second largest crisis in the history of the United States after the great depression.

2008 年金融危機是美國曆史上繼大蕭條之後的第二大危機。

And the only way the US got out of it is by printing massively trillions of dollars.

而美國擺脫困境的唯一辦法就是大量印製數萬億美元。

And if it happens ever again, nobody really knows if the US economy can survive such a crash or not.

如果這種情況再次發生，沒有人知道美國經濟能否經受住這樣的崩潰。

Warren Buffet has a very simple indicator if the stock market is overvalued or undervalued.

沃倫-巴菲特（Warren Buffet）有一個非常簡單的指標來判斷股市是被高估還是低估了。

And that is to take the total value of the stock market, divide it by the GDP and multiply it by 100.

那就是用股票市場的總價值除以國內生產總值，再乘以 100。

And if that percentage is below 50 percent, then the market is undervalued, but if that percentage is over 100 percent, then the market is overvalued.

如果該百分比低於 50%，則市場價值被低估，但如果該百分比超過 100%，則市場價值被高估。

Or if it's anything between 50 to 100 percent, then the market is fairly valued.

如果市場估值在 50%到 100%之間，則說明市場估值合理。

So if we go back for example to 2008, then the stock market or the total valuation of the market was 22 trillion dollars, while the GDP of the United States on the other side was around 14.7 trillion dollars.

是以，如果我們追溯到 2008 年，股市或市場總估值為 22 萬億美元，而美國的國內生產總值約為 14.7 萬億美元。

So if we take 22 trillion dollars and divide it by 14.7 and multiply it by 100, we are going to get something around 150 percent.

是以，如果我們用 22 萬億美元除以 14.7 再乘以 100，就會得到 150%左右的結果。

So based on Warren Buffet's indicator, the market was overvalued by at least 50 percent and that's why he was massively selling all of his stocks.

是以，根據沃倫-巴菲特的指標，市場價值至少被高估了 50%，這也是他大量拋售所有股票的原因。

And now, let's take the exact same indicator and compare it to today.

現在，讓我們把完全相同的指標與今天進行比較。

So the total value of the stock market today is around 52 trillion dollars, while the GDP of the United States is around 29 trillion dollars.

是以，今天股票市場的總價值約為 52 萬億美元，而美國的國內生產總值約為 29 萬億美元。

So if we take 52 trillion dollars, divide it by 29 trillion dollars and multiply it by 100, it's 190 percent.

是以，如果我們用 52 萬億美元除以 29 萬億美元，再乘以 100，就是 190%。

So according to Warren Buffet, the stock market today is much more overvalued than it was back in 2007 and 2008, which means that if there is going to be a crash based on his theory, then the crash should be much more catastrophic than it was back in 2008.

是以，根據沃倫-巴菲特的觀點，今天的股市比 2007 年和 2008 年時高估得多，這意味著，如果根據他的理論會出現暴跌，那麼暴跌的災難性程度應該比 2008 年時嚴重得多。

And that's probably why he is sitting on so much cash, he doesn't want to buy a company, he doesn't want to invest in a business, and he would rather keep most of his money in cash reserves because if an opportunity comes in, he will have that lifeline again, he will have that upper hand over everybody else.

這可能就是他坐擁如此多現金的原因，他不想收購一家公司，不想投資一家企業，他寧願把大部分錢都放在現金儲備裡，因為一旦機會來臨，他就又有了救命稻草，他就會比其他人更有優勢。

Because this time, it wouldn't be probably the housing market, it probably wouldn't be the financial sector, but it seems like it is going to be this time the tech sector, just like it was back in 1999.

因為這一次，可能不會是房地產市場，可能不會是金融行業，但似乎這一次會是科技行業，就像 1999 年那樣。

And every smart investor will benefit from this crisis in his own way, of course, the middle class and the poor people will lose the most because these people are making their money from wages, but the rich people, especially the investors will take advantage.

當然，中產階級和窮人的損失最大，因為他們靠工資賺錢，但富人，尤其是投資者將從中獲益。

Michael Burry for example took advantage by shorting the market, Warren Buffett took advantage by keeping a huge cash pile that allowed him to take advantage out of these cheap stocks back in the days.

例如，邁克爾-伯裡通過做空市場來獲利，而沃倫-巴菲特則通過持有大量現金來獲利，這使他能夠在這些低價股中獲利。

And if you want to take advantage out of it, prepare yourself now, first of all, build a large cash portfolio, and secondly, educate yourself so that you know where is a good opportunity and where is a bad opportunity.

如果你想從中獲益，現在就做好準備，首先，建立一個龐大的現金投資組合，其次，教育自己，讓自己知道哪裡是好機會，哪裡是壞機會。

It will be very easy to pick up the wrong stock, but if you know how the market works, if you know how the stock market works, if you have the right knowledge, you will be able to pick up the right stocks.

選錯股票很容易，但如果你知道市場是如何運作的，如果你知道股市是如何運作的，如果你有正確的知識，你就能選到正確的股票。

Thanks for watching and I will see you in the next one.