Name: 上一次發生這種情況......股市崩盤 (Last time this happened…The Stock Market Crashed)
Uploaded: 2025-08-24T18:04:44.000Z
Duration: 16 min 47 s

Last time something like this has happened, the stock market has crashed.

上一次發生類似情況時，股市已經崩盤。

And every company that says that they are doing something related to AI, they are seeing their stock prices to go viral.

每家公司只要說自己在做與人工智能相關的事情，他們的股價就會瘋漲。

Investors are throwing money into that stock, imagining that this company is going to make a lot of money sometime in the future.

投資者把錢投到這隻股票上，想象著這家公司將來一定會賺大錢。

And a lot of people saying that the market has turned into one giant bubble, and if there is a bubble, bubbles turn to burst every time.

很多人說，市場已經變成了一個巨大的保麗龍，如果有保麗龍，保麗龍每次都會破裂。

Look at Palantir for example, one of the most famous AI stocks that's out there.

以 Palantir 為例，它是最著名的人工智能股票之一。

Before 2024, nobody was talking about it.

如今，它的增長率已超過 600%。

It's probably one of the best investments somebody could possibly make.

這可能是人們可能做出的最佳投資之一。

And if you want to justify its earnings, then forget about that.

如果你想證明它的收益是合理的，那就算了。

Look at Broadcom, prior to 2023, it wasn't trading that much.

看看博通，在 2023 年之前，它的交易量並不大。

I can confidently tell you that this was probably one of the best investments out there because there is a huge shortage of chips in the market, and if you want to power AI, then you certainly need a lot of very advanced chips.

我可以自信地告訴你，這可能是最好的投資之一，因為市場上芯片非常短缺，如果你想為人工智能提供動力，那麼你肯定需要大量非常先進的芯片。

Tesla also presents itself as an AI company, and over the last couple of years since AI became a stock, it has increased by 182 percent.

特斯拉也以人工智能公司自居，在人工智能成為股票的過去幾年裡，特斯拉的股價上漲了 182%。

NVIDIA is, of course, the crown of the AI, and it has grown by 1200 percent since 2022 and became the world's most valuable company.

英偉達當然是人工智能的王者，自 2022 年以來，它的業績增長了 1200%，成為全球最有價值的公司。

In 2022, I wouldn't have imagined that there is going to be a company that is worth about 150 billion dollars and will take over Apple that back in the day was the most valuable company in the world, and today NVIDIA worth over 4 trillion dollars.

2022 年，我不會想到會有一家市值約 1500 億美元的公司取代當年全球最有價值的蘋果公司，而如今英偉達的市值已超過 4 萬億美元。

That's why a lot of people are very concerned that this AI thing is turning into a bubble should we sell our stocks because the bubble, sooner or later, is going to burst.

這就是為什麼很多人非常擔心人工智能會變成保麗龍，我們是否應該賣掉股票，因為保麗龍遲早會破滅。

In 2022, there was a massive stock market crash.

The stock market has crashed by about 25 percent.

A 25 percent is a massive crash in the market.

People have overpaid for a lot of stocks during 2020 and 2021, and then we realize that those stock prices are not being backed by very strong earnings, and if you are not making money, then you cannot justify those stock prices.

人們在 2020 年和 2021 年期間高價購買了很多股票，然後我們意識到，這些股票的價格並沒有非常強勁的盈利支撐，如果你不賺錢，那麼你就無法證明這些股票的價格是合理的。

You see, when we look at the stock market, we always have to think like investors, and as investors, we don't look at the technology itself, even though that is also important to look at.

你看，當我們看股票市場時，我們總是要像投資者一樣思考，而作為投資者，我們不會去看技術本身，儘管這也很重要。

The most important indicator is how much that technology is earning us.

最重要的指標是這項技術能為我們帶來多少收益。

If you are making the best technology in the world, and it's not making money behind it, then why are we supposed to pay for that.

如果你正在製造世界上最好的技術，但背後卻沒有賺錢，那我們為什麼要為此買單呢？

And that's why when a technology comes out, you have to think about how much that technology is going to make you.

這就是為什麼當一項技術問世時，你必須考慮這項技術會給你帶來多少收益。

And that's why when stock prices increase dramatically in 2021 and 2022, and then we realize that it's not being backed by earnings, the entire market has collapsed in order to justify the earnings.

這就是為什麼當股價在 2021 年和 2022 年大幅上漲時，我們會發現它並沒有盈利的支撐，為了證明盈利的合理性，整個市場都崩潰了。

When stock prices increase dramatically, there are two things usually happen.

當股票價格大幅上漲時，通常會出現兩種情況。

Either it's backed by earnings, so earnings rise as well and stock prices stay the same.

要麼是以盈利為支撐，是以盈利也會增加，而股價保持不變。

But if earnings do not increase alongside stock prices, then stock prices go down and fall to the level in order to justify its previous earnings, or the current earnings in this case.

但是，如果收益沒有隨著股價的上漲而上漲，那麼股價就會下跌，並跌至證明其先前收益或當前收益合理的水準。

At its peak in 2020, PE ratio of the S&P 500 was at about 38, which is one of the highest in the history of the S&P 500.

在 2020 年的峰值，標準普爾 500 指數的市盈率約為 38，是標準普爾 500 指數歷史上最高的市盈率之一。

It's not backed by earnings, investors massively sell their stocks, and by the mid of 2022, it goes to 19.

由於沒有盈利支持，投資者大量拋售股票，到 2022 年年中，股價跌至 19。

However, in November 2022, Chad GPT comes out and it changed the world.

然而，2022 年 11 月，查德 GPT 問世，它改變了世界。

It shocks the entire market, it shocks the entire tech industry, and the stock since then has grown by 50%.

它震撼了整個市場，震撼了整個科技行業，此後股價增長了 50%。

And if you look at the PE ratios, the PE ratios have also grown from 19 up to 30.

再看市盈率，市盈率也從 19 升至 30。

And that means that this 50% growth that has been happening since the end of 2022 or the beginning of 2023 is not being backed by earnings.

這就意味著，自 2022 年底或 2023 年初開始出現的 50%的增長並沒有得到盈利的支持。

And this is one of the fundamental reasons why a lot of experts warning us that it is turning into a bubble because it's not backed by real earnings.

這也是很多專家警告我們，由於沒有實際收益支持，它正在變成保麗龍的根本原因之一。

On the other side, you have those people who say that earnings are going to follow sometime in the future because this technology has the potential to make those earnings.

另一方面，也有人說，收益會在未來某個時候隨之而來，因為這項技術有可能帶來收益。

However, investors today are paying for these stocks as if these companies have already made 100 times more than they are making today.

然而，今天的投資者為這些股票所付出的代價，就好像這些公司已經賺取了比現在多 100 倍的利潤。

The best example of the bubble is Vistra.

This is pretty much a very traditional company that generates electricity.

這是一家非常傳統的發電公司。

When we have a very traditional company, especially when it's very capital-intensive because it needs to build those huge electricity plants to generate that electricity, we don't expect those companies to make a lot of money.

當我們擁有一家非常傳統的公司時，尤其是當它的資本非常密集，因為它需要建造那些巨大的發電廠來發電時，我們並不指望這些公司能賺很多錢。

We don't expect these companies to dramatically expand all over the country or all over the world because the cost of expanding that business is extremely expensive.

我們不指望這些公司在全國或全球範圍內大幅擴張，因為擴張業務的成本極其昂貴。

Compare that to an internet company or a Chad GPT that can easily expand.

相比之下，互聯網公司或查德 GPT 很容易擴張。

The more users you add to GPT, it doesn't cost as much as you have to open a new entirely power plant in order to provide electricity for dozens of more homes.

GPT 的用戶越多，成本就越低，因為你完全可以新建一個發電廠，為更多的家庭供電。

Up until 2024, the valuation of Vistra was very moderate at 10 billion dollars, and for such a company, its PE ratio should be at around 10 because we don't expect this company to make 100 times more money sometime in the future.

直到 2024 年，瑞致達的估值都非常適中，只有 100 億美元，對於這樣一家公司來說，其市盈率應該在 10 左右，因為我們並不指望這家公司在未來某個時候能賺到 100 倍的錢。

It's a very well-established traditional business.

這是一家歷史悠久的傳統企業。

For such companies, a PE ratio of 8, 9, or maybe 10 is very reasonable.

對於這些公司來說，8、9 或者 10 的市盈率是非常合理的。

If it's a technology company that has a huge potential to grow, then we can actually give it a PE ratio of 20, 25, in some cases, maybe 30, but for this company, not that much.

如果是一家發展潛力巨大的科技公司，那麼我們實際上可以給它 20 或 25 的市盈率，在某些情況下，也許是 30，但對於這家公司來說，就沒那麼高了。

However, at the end of 2023, there is a lot of news that the new databases are going to power the AI but to power those data centers, you need a lot of energy, and that's why a lot of investors started buying and investing in companies such as Vistra that provides electricity, and since then, the stock has grown by 756 percent.

然而，到 2023 年底，有很多消息稱，新的數據庫將為人工智能提供動力，但要為這些數據中心提供動力，你需要大量的能源，這就是為什麼很多投資者開始購買和投資威仕達等提供電力的公司，從那時起，威仕達的股價增長了 756%。

No, its earnings are growing gradually like they supposed to be.

不，它的收益正在逐步增長，這是理所應當的。

But because now people claim that Vistra is going to power the AI databases, a lot of people are investing in them, and this is not the only example.

但是，由於現在有人聲稱威創將為人工智能數據庫提供動力，是以很多人都在對其進行投資，而這並不是唯一的例子。

The market today is filled with such examples.

如今，市場上充斥著這樣的例子。

In fact, the AI bubble today looks very similar to the dot-com bubble that happened in late 1990s.

事實上，今天的人工智能保麗龍與 20 世紀 90 年代末的網絡保麗龍非常相似。

In 1995, Netscape comes out and it changes the entire course of the history.

1995 年，網景公司的出現改變了整個歷史進程。

Internet existed way before 1995, but Netscape came out as a browser and made it accessible for the average person to use the internet.

互聯網早在 1995 年之前就已存在，但網景瀏覽器的出現使普通人也能使用互聯網。

Before 1995, it was very difficult to use the internet.

1995 年之前，使用互聯網非常困難。

That's why after Netscape, you had a long list of internet companies that came out and changed the course of the history.

這就是為什麼在網景公司之後，會有一長串互聯網公司出現並改變歷史進程。

That's when a lot of investment, a lot of money started pouring into internet companies.

就在那時，大量投資和資金開始湧入互聯網公司。

Companies such as Amazon and Google and a long list of other companies came out in 1990s.

亞馬遜、谷歌等公司以及一長串其他公司都是在 20 世紀 90 年代出現的。

Every company would add dot-com at the end of their name, and their stock price would grow dramatically after that.

每家公司都會在名稱後面加上 dot-com，之後股價就會大幅上漲。

But then by 2000s, people realized that we have such high stock prices, but these high stock prices are not being backed by very strong earnings, which means that these stocks are overvalued.

但到了 2000 年代，人們意識到，我們擁有如此高的股價，但這些高股價卻沒有非常強勁的盈利支撐，這意味著這些股票被高估了。

And very smart investors, especially those who bought those stocks very early, they started selling their stocks massively.

非常聰明的投資者，尤其是那些很早就買入這些股票的投資者，開始大量拋售手中的股票。

One of the people who became a billionaire as a result of that was Mark Cuban.

馬克-庫班就是是以而成為億萬富翁的人之一。

He had a lot of stocks since he sold his startup to Yahoo and he massively sold all of his stocks in the market because he knew that all of these internet companies, yes, they have very high valuations, but these high valuations are not being backed by very strong earnings.

自從他把自己的初創公司賣給雅虎後，他擁有了很多股票，他在市場上大規模拋售了所有股票，因為他知道，所有這些互聯網公司，是的，它們有非常高的估值，但這些高估值並沒有非常強勁的盈利作為支撐。

By the year 2000, the bubble burst and the S&P 500 falls down by about 50 percent.

到 2000 年，保麗龍破滅，標準普爾 500 指數下跌約 50%。

The real question is that, did internet overpromised and underdelivered?

真正的問題是，互聯網是否承諾過多而交付不足？

Internet companies today make much more than anybody would have imagined back in 1990s.

如今，互聯網公司的收入遠遠超出了人們在 20 世紀 90 年代的想象。

You see, when a new technology comes out, there is a lot of hype around it, and a lot of people start throwing theories that these corporations or this technology is going to make an X amount of money, and maybe it will, maybe it will make even far more money than that.

你看，當一項新技術問世時，會有很多人對它進行炒作，很多人開始提出這樣的理論：這些公司或這項技術會賺到 X 多美元，也許會，也許會比這賺得更多。

But because everybody is focused to make money in the short run, everybody invests in them.

但是，由於每個人都想在短期內賺錢，是以每個人都對它們進行投資。

And that extra investment creates a lot of demand for these stocks, which hype their stock prices to levels that we cannot possibly imagine.

這些額外的投資創造了對這些股票的大量需求，從而把它們的股價炒到了我們無法想象的水準。

But then we realize that in order for these companies to justify those stock prices, they need time to develop that technology to the level where it's going to be profitable.

但後來我們意識到，為了使這些公司的股價合理，他們需要時間來開發技術，使其達到盈利的水準。

When that realization happens, early investors start selling their stocks massively and that's the bubble burst.

當意識到這一點時，早期投資者開始大量拋售股票，這就是保麗龍破滅的過程。

And then after that, these corporations will start working on how they can monetize this new technology, and that's when that technology becomes mainstream.

之後，這些公司就會開始研究如何將這項新技術貨幣化，而這正是這項技術成為主流的時候。

And that's what happened with the internet.

In fact, most of the internet companies that you know today did not even come out in 1990s, they came out after the bubble burst.

事實上，你們今天所知道的大多數互聯網公司甚至不是在 20 世紀 90 年代出現的，而是在保麗龍破滅後出現的。

For example, tech google, it was founded in 1999, but it was a very little tiny company.

例如，科技公司谷歌，它成立於 1999 年，但卻是一家非常小的小公司。

It only became mainstream after the bubble burst.

保麗龍破滅後，它才成為主流。

或者說技術臉譜，它是 2004 年問世的。

Instagram, whatsapp, pretty much most of the internet companies or technologies that you use today came up after the year 2000 or after the dotcom bubble burst.

Instagram、whatsapp，幾乎你今天使用的大多數互聯網公司或技術都是在 2000 年或互聯網保麗龍破滅後出現的。

The introduction of chatgbt looks very similar to the introduction of Netscape.

chatgbt 的推出與 Netscape 的推出非常相似。

In November 2022, when chatgbt came out, everybody realized that AI is the next big thing.

2022 年 11 月，當 chatgbt 問世時，所有人都意識到，人工智能是下一件大事。

Because everybody thought that you can literally put AI in the hands of the average person, just like Netscape put the internet in the hands of the average people.

因為每個人都認為，你真的可以把人工智能交到普通人手中，就像網景把互聯網交到普通人手中一樣。

So a lot of investments poured into AI, which drove all of these massive stock prices.

是以，大量投資湧入人工智能領域，推動了這些股票的大幅上漲。

But the real question is that when that bubble is going to burst.

但真正的問題是，保麗龍何時破滅。

The bubble has been going for the last 2 years, like the entire 2023, 2024, and now 2025.

保麗龍已經持續了兩年，比如整個 2023 年、2024 年，以及現在的 2025 年。

Maybe it will continue until 2026, maybe even 2027.

也許會持續到 2026 年，甚至 2027 年。

You cannot possibly time the market perfectly.

你不可能完美地把握市場時機。

You can look for the clues, you can look for the indicators, but timing the market perfectly is almost impossible.

你可以尋找線索，可以尋找指標，但完美地把握市場時機幾乎是不可能的。

But there is a big difference between the dotcom bubble and the AI bubble.

但是，網絡保麗龍和人工智能保麗龍之間有很大的不同。

When Netscape came out in 1995, the largest companies back in the days were Walmart, General Electric, Xenmobile, and all of these corporations did not jump into the internet.

1995 年網景公司問世時，當時最大的公司是沃爾瑪、通用電氣和 Xenmobile，所有這些公司都沒有涉足互聯網。

They continued with their own business as if internet is just another thing that is going to fade away.

他們繼續做著自己的生意，彷彿互聯網只是另一個即將消失的東西。

If Walmart, for example, invested in the internet, Amazon would not exist today.

例如，如果沃爾瑪投資互聯網，亞馬遜今天就不會存在。

If General Electric realized the potential of the internet and they would have developed, for example, a smartphone, then Apple wouldn't be the largest company in the world today.

如果通用電氣意識到互聯網的潛力，開發出智能手機等產品，那麼蘋果公司就不會成為今天世界上最大的公司。

Or one of the largest companies in the world.

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上一次發生這種情況......股市崩盤 (Last time this happened…The Stock Market Crashed)

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