Name: 美聯儲岌岌可危--美元將無法生存 (Federal Reserve is in Danger - The Dollar will not survive)
Uploaded: 2025-08-18T18:04:11.000Z
Duration: 12 min 6 s

情態副詞

This is probably the most dangerous period that the dollar is going through since 1971, since the gold standard.

這可能是自 1971 年金本位制以來美元經歷的最危險時期。

The pressure on the Federal Reserve is rising to lower interest rates finally to take this burden out of the shoulders of the government.

美聯儲面臨的壓力越來越大，要求其最終降低利率，以減輕政府的負擔。

Scott Besson, the treasury of the Strategy recently said that the Federal Reserve should lower the rates by at least 150 percent basis points, and maybe by the end of the next year, the interest rates would be at about 1 percent and welcome again the era of cheap money.

戰略財政部的斯科特-貝松最近表示，美聯儲應將利率下調至少 150 個基點，也許到明年年底，利率就會降到 1%左右，再次迎來廉價貨幣時代。

It's a nickname too late is because he wants to go into a series of rate hikes.

這是一個太晚的綽號，因為他想進入一系列加息。

He's not Alan Greenspan, who is very forward thinking.

他不是艾倫-格林斯潘，後者非常有遠見。

They try to be more data driven, which I think is a mistake.

他們試圖以數據為導向，我認為這是一個錯誤。

We should probably be 150, 175 basis points lower.

我們可能應該降低 150 或 175 個基點。

If Alan Greenspan would be the chairman of the Fed today, he would have hiked the interest rates to about 10 percent to finally put an end to this high inflation.

如果艾倫-格林斯潘今天是美聯儲主席，他一定會把利率提高到 10%左右，最終結束這種高通脹。

When Alan Greenspan took the chairman of the Fed, the interest rates were about 6.5 percent.

格林斯潘就任美聯儲主席時，利率約為 6.5%。

That was in 1987 and inflation during that period was about 3.6 percent, not as high as today.

那是在 1987 年，當時的通貨膨脹率約為 3.6%，沒有現在這麼高。

I mean, in fact, higher than today because inflation today is about 2.9 percent or 2.7 percent.

我的意思是，事實上，比現在還要高，因為現在的通貨膨脹率約為 2.9% 或 2.7%。

That's not that a huge difference, but nonetheless, he understood that inflation is rising and if he is not going to take drastic measures to control that, it will get out of control.

這並不是一個很大的區別，但儘管如此，他明白通貨膨脹正在上升，如果他不採取嚴厲措施加以控制，通貨膨脹就會失控。

So instantly, when he takes the chairman of the Fed, he raises the interest rates to about 10 percent by 1989.

是以，當他就任美聯儲主席後，立即將利率提高到 1989 年的 10%左右。

And inflation was rising again to about 5.4 percent.

通貨膨脹率再次上升到 5.4%左右。

Imagine if we have interest rates today that are as high as 10 percent.

試想一下，如果我們今天的利率高達 10%。

I think Donald Trump is literally would go to the chairman of the Fed and would punch him in the face because he cannot possibly afford such high interest rates.

我認為唐納德-特朗普真的會去找美聯儲主席，然後給他一拳，因為他不可能負擔得起這麼高的利率。

When we have today interest rates of about 4.5 percent, that is costing the US government almost a trillion dollars in servicing the debt.

今天，我們的利率約為 4.5%，這使美國政府在償還債務方面花費了近萬億美元。

Imagine what would happen if we have 10 percent interest rates.

試想一下，如果我們的利率是 10%，會發生什麼？

Yes, inflation after that cooled down to about 3 percent.

是的，此後通脹率降至 3%左右。

And you might think that Alan Greenspan would lower interest rates to finally grow the economy since we have inflation rate of about 3 percent.

你可能會認為格林斯潘會降低利率以最終實現經濟增長，因為我們的通貨膨脹率約為 3%。

But that's not happening because from 1995 up to the year 2000, he kept interest rates for about 6 percent in order to bring that inflation to 2 percent.

但這並沒有發生，因為從 1995 年到 2000 年，他一直將利率維持在 6% 左右，以便將通脹率降至 2%。

That's the kind of interest rates that investors will accept.

這才是投資者願意接受的利率水準。

That's the kind of interest rates that would help the US government or the US economy to continue growing since businesses have to make business decisions.

這樣的利率有助於美國政府或美國經濟繼續增長，因為企業必須做出商業決策。

And if they don't know what is going to be the final, the real inflation, then they cannot possibly make good business decisions.

如果他們不知道什麼是最終的、真正的通貨膨脹，那麼他們就不可能做出正確的商業決策。

His interest rate hikes led to unemployment to grow to as much as 7.8 percent.

他的加息導致失業率增長到 7.8%。

And this is one of the highest unemployment of the 20th century that the United States ever faced.

這是 20 世紀美國面臨的最高失業率之一。

If you compare that to what's happening today, when we have interest rates of about 4.5 percent, unemployment is like 4.2 percent.

如果與今天的情況相比，我們的利率約為 4.5%，失業率則為 4.2%。

So you can confidently say that Jay Powell is not doing literally a bad job.

是以，你可以自信地說，傑伊-鮑威爾做得並不差。

When we have unemployment of 4.2 percent, it makes sense to have interest rates of about 4.5 percent when inflation is still not under control.

當我們的失業率為 4.2%時，在通脹仍未得到控制的情況下，利率約為 4.5%是合理的。

So if you literally look at inflation rate of about 2.7 percent and you see that Jay Powell is taking interest rates to about 4.5 percent, it actually makes economic sense for him to keep the rates that high until inflation will be fixed because unemployment is so low.

是以，如果從字面上看通脹率約為 2.7%，而鮑威爾（Jay Powell）將利率提高到約 4.5%，那麼他將利率保持在這麼高的水準，直到通脹得到解決，這實際上是有經濟意義的，因為失業率是如此之低。

You also have to consider the fact that Alan Greenspan did not face the debt problem that the government is facing today.

你還必須考慮到，艾倫-格林斯潘並沒有面臨政府今天所面臨的債務問題。

Today the government is facing such a huge debt that was not a problem back in the days.

今天，政府面臨著如此鉅額的債務，而這在過去並不是問題。

Now we have to understand that the national debt that the government is facing has nothing to do with the Federal Reserve.

現在我們必須明白，政府面臨的國債問題與美聯儲無關。

That debt was created by the government and government alone is responsible.

這些債務是政府造成的，只有政府才有責任。

And if the cost of servicing that debt is getting out of control, again, that's not the problem of the Fed.

如果償債成本失控，那也不是美聯儲的問題。

The debt to GDP ratio back in 1987 was about 50 percent.

1987 年，債務與國內生產總值的比率約為 50%。

That's why there is so much pressure on the Federal Reserve.

這就是為什麼美聯儲面臨如此大的壓力。

Because we have to service that debt and it cost the government now a trillion dollars.

因為我們必須償還債務，現在政府已經為此花費了一萬億美元。

And if Jay Powell is going to raise the interest rates to about 10 percent, I guess the cost of servicing that debt could go to as high as 2 percent.

如果傑伊-鮑威爾要把利率提高到 10%左右，我想償還債務的成本可能會高達 2%。

So if you are already having a deficit of 2 trillion dollars, it would go to 3 trillion dollars.

是以，如果你的赤字已經達到 2 萬億美元，那麼赤字將達到 3 萬億美元。

Back in the days, the Federal Reserve was not also practicing quantitative easing because it was created aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis to save the US economy.

當年，美聯儲並沒有實行量化寬鬆政策，因為它是在 2008 年金融危機之後為拯救美國經濟而創立的。

So the balance sheet of the Fed was pretty empty back in the 1980s.

是以，在 20 世紀 80 年代，美聯儲的資產負債表相當空虛。

Today, the balance sheet of the Fed is at about 7.8 or 7.5 trillion dollars, which is enormous.

如今，美聯儲的資產負債表約為 7.8 或 7.5 萬億美元，規模巨大。

And the job of the Fed is to empty that balance sheet.

美聯儲的工作就是清空資產負債表。

It was solely created to save the US economy and now, while you have to get rid of that balance sheet, you cannot possibly do that because there isn't enough demand in the market and there is also so much pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates.

它的建立完全是為了拯救美國經濟，而現在，雖然你必須擺脫資產負債表，但你不可能做到這一點，因為市場上沒有足夠的需求，而且美聯儲也面臨著巨大的降息壓力。

The deficit back in the days was 3.1 percent, but today's deficit to GDP ratio is like 6.5 percent and according to a lot of experts, if the trend continues, it can go to as high as 7 percent by the end of the next year.

當年的赤字率為 3.1%，但如今赤字與 GDP 的比率卻高達 6.5%，而且據許多專家稱，如果這一趨勢繼續下去，到明年年底赤字率可能會高達 7%。

There is also a trade war that the Federal Reserve has to take into consideration since trade wars and tariffs usually tend to increase prices, that is a very normal thing to consider.

美聯儲還必須考慮到貿易戰，因為貿易戰和關稅通常會導致物價上漲，這是一個非常正常的考慮因素。

If you are bringing stuff from outside and you put additional tax on them, their final price will certainly be higher than the prices that you used to have before the tariffs because now you have an extra expense, an extra tax that you have to pay because you imported that product into the United States.

如果你從國外進口商品並對其徵收額外的稅，其最終價格肯定會高於徵收關稅前的價格，因為現在你有了額外的支出，你必須支付額外的稅，因為你將該產品進口到了美國。

So if Alan Greenspan would be the chairman of the Fed today, he would certainly hike the interest rates.

是以，如果艾倫-格林斯潘今天是美聯儲主席，他肯定會加息。

But here is what is literally creating the real danger for the US dollar.

但是，真正給美元帶來危險的是這個。

If you look at the yields on the treasurer bills, you will see that every time there is a crisis, investors would consider the US dollar as a safe haven and that is the biggest danger that the government or the US dollar is facing right now.

如果你看一下國庫券的收益率，就會發現每當出現危機時，投資者都會將美元視為避風港，而這正是政府或美元目前面臨的最大危險。

See, when we have a crisis, investors who are sitting on a lot of wealth, they tend to accept lower interest rates as long as their money is safe, as long as it's invested in the safest investments possible.

你看，當我們遇到危機時，那些坐擁大量財富的投資者，只要他們的錢是安全的，只要他們的錢是投資在最安全的投資項目上，他們往往會接受較低的利率。

So take an example of 2020, when we had the global pandemic and the world was closing its doors and investors were like, what's going to happen to our wealth?

以 2020 年為例，當時全球大流行，世界正在關門，投資者們想，我們的財富會發生什麼變化？

We have billions of dollars, hundreds of millions of dollars, sometimes tens of billions of dollars and that money should be invested somewhere so that we are out of this pandemic and we have made at least some return and protected ourselves against inflation.

我們有數十億美元、數億美元，有時甚至數百億美元，這些錢應該投資在某個地方，這樣我們就能擺脫這場大流行病，至少獲得一些回報，並保護自己免受通貨膨脹的影響。

So a lot of that money during any kind of a crisis flows back to the United States and being invested in the US debt.

是以，在任何危機期間，大量資金都會流回美國，投資於美債。

Because people trust the US dollar more than they trust anything else.

因為人們信任美元勝過信任其他任何東西。

So you see that the yields on 10-year treasurer bills have decreased from 1.6% to 0.5%.

是以，你可以看到 10 年期國庫券的收益率從 1.6% 降至 0.5%。

The way that the yields on the debt is determined is through supply and demand.

決定債務收益率的方式是供求關係。

If the US government is selling so much debt, on the other side, there is so much or the demand is higher from them, then that allows the US government to offer lower yields and raise money at a cheaper price.

如果美國政府出售如此多的債務，從另一個角度看，有如此多的債務或他們的需求更高，那麼美國政府就可以提供更低的收益率，以更低的價格籌集資金。

If you look at the 30-year treasurer bills, you will see the exact same thing.

如果你看看 30 年期的財務主管賬單，就會發現完全相同的情況。

Back in 2020 or the beginning of 2020, the yields on them were about 2%.

在 2020 年或 2020 年初，它們的收益率約為 2%。

By the mid of 2020, they went down by more than 50% to 0.9%.

到 2020 年年中，這一比例下降了 50%以上，降至 0.9%。

So investors in 2020 looked at the US and they had so much confidence in the US that they were willing to accept 0.9% interest rate for the next 30 years as long as their money is safe.

是以，2020 年的投資者審視美國，他們對美國充滿信心，只要資金安全，他們願意接受未來 30 年 0.9% 的利率。

But something fundamentally changes after that.

但在那之後，一些事情發生了根本性的變化。

The global economy goes through so much shifts, and investors no longer ready to accept such a low yield on their investments, they want something higher, and interest rates would go to as high as 4.3% or 4.5% especially at the peak of 2022 when there was high inflation and investors were demanding at least 5%.

全球經濟發生了巨大變化，投資者不再願意接受如此低的投資收益，他們想要更高的收益，利率將高達 4.3% 或 4.5%，尤其是在 2022 年的高峰期，當時通貨膨脹率很高，投資者要求利率至少達到 5%。

We are going through another chaos in the world.

我們正在經歷世界的又一次混亂。

We are changing the economic model that the world has used since 1945.

我們正在改變世界自 1945 年以來一直使用的經濟模式。

Because now we have major economies such as China who are not willing to simply follow the world order or the rules that the US has put in place because they are challenging the dominance of the dollar and the dominance of the US economy.

因為現在我們有了像中國這樣的主要經濟體，他們不願意簡單地遵循世界秩序或美國製定的規則，因為他們正在挑戰美元的主導地位和美國經濟的主導地位。

Secondly, the US is creating a new economic model by imposing tariffs on every single country in the world.

其次，美國正在通過對世界上每一個國家徵收關稅來創造一種新的經濟模式。

Because the previous policy was that we lower down tariffs to 0% to make the US dollar as the global reserve currency.

因為之前的政策是，我們將關稅降至 0%，使美元成為全球儲備貨幣。

這是一個充滿不確定性的時期。

So you would expect investors to come back to the US.

是以，你會期望投資者回到美國。

You would expect so much capital to flow from all around the world back into the US and the yields on the US treasurer bills would go down from 4.3% at least maybe to 3%.

你會預期大量資金會從世界各地流回美國，美國國庫券的收益率至少會從 4.3% 降到 3%。

If you look at the bond market, at the auctions, you will see that the demand is not as strong as it was in the past.

如果你看看債券市場，看看拍賣會，就會發現需求並不像過去那麼強勁。

The demand is not as strong as it was in 2020, in 2021, and even in 2019, 2018 and the years prior to that as if investors are losing confidence in the dollar.

需求不如 2020 年、2021 年，甚至 2019 年、2018 年和之前幾年那麼強勁，好像投資者對美元失去了信心。

Now if you take the treasurer bills of the US and you compare them to the German treasurer bills, you see that the German treasurer bills have half of the yields that the US has.

如果將美國的國庫券與德國的國庫券進行比較，就會發現德國國庫券的收益率只有美國的一半。

That means that investors are having more confidence in the German economy than they have in the US economy.

這意味著投資者對德國經濟的信心超過了對美國經濟的信心。

The US has the global reserve currency, the German economy does not have the global reserve currency and yet investors are willing to loan their money to the German government at a lower interest rate than they are willing to do that with the US economy.

美國擁有全球儲備貨幣，德國經濟沒有全球儲備貨幣，但投資者卻願意以低於美國經濟的利率將資金貸給德國政府。

And that's the problem or the danger that the US dollar is right now in.

這就是美元目前面臨的問題或危險。

Secondly, if you compare the US treasurer bills and you compare them to the Swiss treasurer bills, they have yields of less than 1%.

其次，如果將美國國庫券與瑞士國庫券進行比較，它們的收益率不到 1%。

Can you imagine for a moment that a country that is literally tiny, small in the middle of Europe has lower yields on their government bonds than the US has.

你能想象一個位於歐洲中部的彈丸小國的政府債券收益率比美國還低嗎？

The US bond market is the backbone of what makes the US the global reserve currency.

美國債券市場是美國成為全球儲備貨幣的支柱。

And the less faith in the bonds there are, the less faith there will be in the US dollar.

對債券的信心越低，對美元的信心就越低。

Which is exactly what is creating so much danger for the US as the global reserve currency.

這正是美國作為全球儲備貨幣所面臨的巨大危險。

And now you want to pressure the Fed further to lower interest rates so that inflation will get out of control.

現在你又想進一步向美聯儲施壓，要求其降低利率，這樣通脹就會失控。

The only question that I have, why would any investors would loan their money to the US government and buy those treasurer bills and accept lower interest rates compared to inflation when they have much better options all across the globe.

我唯一的疑問是，既然投資者在全球各地都有更好的選擇，他們為什麼還要把錢借給美國政府，購買這些國庫券，並接受比通貨膨脹率更低的利率呢？

And that's why Jamie Dimon, who is the chairman, he is not a chairman, he is like the CEO of JP Morgan, says that the bond market is going to crack if you continue with these policies.

這就是為什麼傑米-戴蒙（Jamie Dimon），他是摩根大通的董事長，他不是董事長，他就像摩根大通的首席執行官，說如果你繼續執行這些政策，債券市場就會破裂。

What makes the entire situation even more dangerous is that if the Fed will lower interest rates in September of this year under the pressure of the White House, it will destroy that confidence even more.

讓整個局勢變得更加危險的是，如果美聯儲在白宮的壓力下於今年 9 月降低利率，將更加摧毀這種信心。

So it's very difficult to predict how high the yields will be after that.

是以，很難預測之後的收益率會有多高。

Hopefully it's not going to crack the bond market, but the likelihood of that is only rising.

希望它不會打擊債券市場，但這種可能性只會越來越大。

Thanks for watching and I will see you in the next one.

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美聯儲岌岌可危--美元將無法生存 (Federal Reserve is in Danger - The Dollar will not survive)

literally

pandemic

period

practice