Name: "大多數人都不知道美國經濟即將發生什麼" ("Most People Have No Idea What's About To Happen To The US Economy")
Uploaded: 2025-08-10T18:12:01.000Z
Duration: 15 min 19 s

to 不定詞

Most Americans have no idea what's about to happen. 63 percent of all Americans live paycheck to paycheck.

大多數美國人都不知道即將發生什麼。63%的美國人過著 "靠工資吃飯 "的生活。

現在進行式

Even those who are making over a hundred thousand dollars, half of them live paycheck to paycheck.

即使是那些收入超過十萬美元的人，其中一半也是靠工資生活。

Almost 60 percent of Americans don't have an extra thousand dollars in emergency bill.

近 60% 的美國人沒有額外的 1000 美元應急賬單。

And prices are about to double or even triple in some cases.

在某些情況下，價格還將翻一番甚至兩番。

What do you think is going to happen to most Americans?

If you are making over 300 thousand dollars, then you are safe.

如果你的收入超過 30 萬美元，那麼你就是安全的。

But if you are making less than that, then you are about to get much poorer.

但如果你的收入低於這個數字，那麼你就會變得更窮。

The United States is perfectly positioned to win this trade war against China.

美國完全有能力打贏這場針對中國的貿易戰。

But nobody said that it's not going to be painful.

Prices in some cases can even double or triple.

在某些情況下，價格甚至會翻一番或兩番。

And it's not just simply going to cause a recession like in 2008.

這不僅僅會像 2008 年那樣引發經濟衰退。

But this crisis could be as big as the crisis of the 1929.

但這次危機可能會像 1929 年的危機一樣嚴重。

This could be the greatest crisis of the 21st century in the United States.

這可能是美國 21 世紀最大的危機。

So here in this video, let's find out how bad this crisis could possibly be and how you can perfectly take advantage out of it and how you should prepare for it.

是以，在本視頻中，讓我們來了解一下這場危機可能會有多嚴重，以及您如何才能完美地從中獲益，以及您應該如何做好準備。

If you are ready, give this video a thumbs up and let's get right into it.

如果您準備好了，請為這段視頻豎起大拇指，讓我們開始吧。

Consumerism is the backbone of the US economy.

The only way that an economy would grow is when people spend money.

經濟增長的唯一途徑就是人們花錢。

Every dollar that you spend is someone's income.

您花費的每一美元都是他人的收入。

So if you go to a grocery store and you spend a single dollar, then the owner of that grocery store will take that dollar and will go and fix his car.

是以，如果你去雜貨店花了一美元，那麼雜貨店的老闆就會拿著這一美元去修車。

The mechanic will take that dollar and is going to spend it on something else.

機械師會把這一美元花在其他地方。

And over time, that dollar keeps circulating within the entire economy, and that leads to an economic growth.

隨著時間的推移，美元在整個經濟中不斷流通，從而帶來經濟增長。

So the backbone of the economy is to trade.

The more we trade, the more we buy, the more we sell, the faster the economy is going to  If tomorrow everybody stops buying and selling stuff, if trade stops tomorrow, you have to understand that it is going to have a direct negative implication on the entire economy.

我們的貿易越多，我們買的越多，我們賣的越多，經濟就會發展得越快。如果明天每個人都停止買賣東西，如果明天貿易停止了，你必須明白，這將對整個經濟產生直接的負面影響。

And the trade between China and the United States is not just a couple of billions of dollars, it is literally hundreds of billions of dollars annually.

中美之間的貿易額不僅僅是幾十億美元，而是每年數千億美元。

And getting so much trade out of the economy and imposing tariffs of 145% literally means that the trade between these two countries is officially over.

將如此多的貿易從經濟中剝離並徵收 145% 的關稅，實際上意味著兩國之間的貿易正式結束。

Less money will be spent in the United States, which will lead to an economic stagnation, which will lead to an economic crisis.

在美國花的錢會減少，這將導致經濟停滯，進而引發經濟危機。

And manufacturing is not going back to the United States.

And that is something that you have to simply understand.

Because companies have already spent hundreds of billions of dollars building the infrastructure over the last 30 years.

因為在過去的 30 年裡，各公司已經花費了數千億美元建設基礎設施。

And no matter how good you are at manufacturing things, no matter how big you are, you cannot simply shift manufacturing overnight.

無論你多麼擅長製造，無論你的規模有多大，你都不可能在一夜之間簡單地轉變製造方式。

Apple started moving manufacturing from China into India back in 2017.

早在 2017 年，蘋果公司就開始將生產從中國轉移到印度。

And right now in 2025, 1 in 7 iPhones are being manufactured in India, and that is 7 to 8 years of real work of actually moving manufacturing.

而現在，在 2025 年，每 7 部 iPhone 中就有 1 部是在印度生產的，這需要 7 到 8 年的時間來真正實現生產的轉移。

And they moved manufacturing together with a Chinese company called Foxconn that actually builds the iPhones in China.

他們與一家名為富士康的中國公司合作，在中國生產 iPhone。

So with the help of Chinese, they could actually move away so much manufacturing from China into India.

是以，在中國人的幫助下，他們實際上可以將大量製造業從中國轉移到印度。

If you want to move it back to the United States, then it's gonna take at least 7 years if not longer than that.

如果你想把它搬回美國，那麼至少需要 7 年時間，甚至更長。

Even if we assume hypothetically that we are going to bring it back to the United States, that means that over the next 5 to 7 years as we are building those plants, the price of iPhones are going to at least double.

即使我們假設我們將把它帶回美國，這也意味著在未來的 5 到 7 年裡，在我們建設這些工廠的過程中，iPhone 的價格至少會翻一番。

Because when you are buying an iPhone, let's just assume hypothetically that each iPhone that comes into the United States comes at a price of $700 each because the basic iPhone costs around $1000.

因為當你購買 iPhone 時，我們假設每部進入美國的 iPhone 售價都是 700 美元，因為基本款 iPhone 的售價約為 1000 美元。

Let's be a bit more generous, let's say that it's $500 a piece.

我們再大方一點，就說是 500 美元一個。

With 150% in tariffs, each iPhone is going to cost around $1300 just to get them into the United States and Apple has to make a profit on it, which means that the basic iPhone, and the price of it is going to go to at least $1500 or $1700 or probably even $2000 because we don't know for a fact how far these tariffs are going to go.

如果徵收 150% 的關稅，每部 iPhone 進入美國的成本將達到 1300 美元左右，而蘋果公司必須從中獲利，這意味著基本款 iPhone 的價格將至少上漲到 1500 美元或 1700 美元，甚至可能上漲到 2000 美元，因為我們還不清楚這些關稅會漲到什麼程度。

Will people buy more iPhones or they will buy less iPhones because the price have increased?

人們會購買更多的 iPhone，還是會因為價格上漲而減少購買 iPhone？

And as I told you earlier, spending money is the basic principle of economic growth.

正如我之前所說，花錢是經濟增長的基本原則。

So less people spend money, less economic growth, which means a recession and that recession could even turn into a depression if spending is going to go much lower than that.

是以，花錢的人少了，經濟增長也就少了，這意味著經濟衰退，如果支出比這低得多，衰退甚至會演變成蕭條。

Another thing that you have to understand is that this iPhone is not a new technology, it has been around for 15 years or probably longer than that, and it has a life cycle, which means that 10 or 15 years from now, iPhones might not actually be around anymore, or maybe in 5-10 years, there is going to be a technology that is going to replace iPhone, which means that if Apple is going to spend $200 billion or $300 billion to build those plants in the United States, Apple might not actually never be able to make those money back because they will have to spend another few hundred billion dollars building plants for the new product that will replace iPhone, for example.

你必須明白的另一件事是，iPhone 並不是一項新技術，它已經存在了 15 年，甚至可能更久，而且它有一個生命週期，這意味著 10 年或 15 年後，iPhone 可能就不再存在了，或者 5-10 年後，會有一種技術取代 iPhone、這就意味著，如果蘋果公司要花 2,000 億或 3,000 億美元在美國建廠，那麼蘋果公司可能永遠也賺不回這些錢，因為他們還得再花幾千億美元為取代 iPhone 的新產品建廠。

Any product has a life cycle, and when you are building factories and plants, you are in mind that I am going to spend, yes, maybe $50 billion or $100 billion, but because I am going to sell this product over the course of the next 20 years, for example, I am going to divide that $100 billion over the course of 20 years and on each single piece of the product that I am selling, and that's why I am building this huge plant that costs so much money.

任何產品都有其生命週期，當你建造工廠和廠房時，你會考慮到，我將花費 500 億美元或 1000 億美元，但因為我將在未來 20 年內銷售這種產品，例如，我將在 20 年內把這 1000 億美元分攤到我銷售的每件產品上，這就是為什麼我要建造這座耗資巨大的工廠。

But if I know for a fact that I will never be able to make this money back, will I actually spend so much money building those plants?

但是，如果我知道我永遠也賺不回這筆錢，我還會花那麼多錢去建那些工廠嗎？

Well, absolutely not, it doesn't make any sense.

And if you think that Apple should do that, then why don't you go and build those factories if you are not going to turn a profit, you are not going to do that.

如果你認為蘋果公司應該這樣做，那麼如果你不打算盈利，你為什麼不去建造那些工廠呢？

In fact, you might be even complaining that you are not being paid enough.

事實上，你甚至會抱怨自己的工資不夠高。

So why do you think that Apple should spend so much money investing in something that they will never make their money back?

那麼，你認為蘋果公司為什麼要花費這麼多錢投資於那些永遠也賺不回來的東西呢？

And you have to understand that Apple is a privately owned company, they are accountable to their shareholders, and if Apple is not going to stay profitable, then shareholders are going to sell their stocks and the company is going to go bankrupt over time.

你必須明白，蘋果是一傢俬有公司，他們要對股東負責，如果蘋果不能保持盈利，那麼股東們就會拋售股票，隨著時間的推移，公司就會破產。

And if you say that, oh, I am not using an iPhone, I am fine.

如果你說，哦，我不用 iPhone，那我就沒事。

It's not just about the iPhones, it's about everything.

這不僅與 iPhone 有關，還與一切有關。

Your fridge probably comes from China, your TV probably comes from China.

你的冰箱可能來自中國，你的電視可能來自中國。

And even if you are an Android user, let's say that you have a Samsung, do you think Samsungs are being manufactured in the US?

即使你是安卓用戶，比方說你有三星手機，你認為三星手機是在美國生產的嗎？

Well absolutely not, some of them are actually being built in China, others in Vietnam.

絕對不是，其中一些實際上是在中國建造的，另一些是在越南建造的。

So when tariffs are increased so much, there is certainly going to be less in spending because prices all across the globe are going to rise.

是以，當關稅大幅提高時，消費肯定會減少，因為全球物價都會上漲。

Thirdly, iPhones aren't just simply being sold in the US, they are being sold all over the globe.

第三，iPhone 不僅僅在美國銷售，而是銷往全球各地。

And Apple will keep continue manufacturing iPhones in China because there are no 150% tariffs between China and the EU, so they can simply keep making those iPhones for the people who live in the EU where they don't have to pay so much tariffs.

蘋果公司將繼續在中國生產 iPhone，因為中國和歐盟之間沒有 150% 的關稅，所以他們可以繼續為生活在歐盟的人們生產 iPhone，因為在歐盟他們不需要支付這麼多關稅。

They will continue making iPhones in China because China is one of the largest markets in the world and they continue selling their iPhones in China and all across the globe.

他們將繼續在中國生產 iPhone，因為中國是世界上最大的市場之一，他們將繼續在中國和全球銷售 iPhone。

So the only expensive iPhones are going to be in the US, well, the rest of the world are going to enjoy cheap iPhones and cheap Samsungs, cheap TVs, cheap everything other than the US.

是以，只有在美國才會有昂貴的 iPhone，那麼，世界其他地方就會享受到廉價的 iPhone、廉價的三星手機、廉價的電視，以及除美國以外的廉價產品。

Which means that there is less spending in the US, which means that there is an economic crisis looming around the corner.

這意味著美國的支出減少，意味著經濟危機迫在眉睫。

The second biggest problem is that rebuilding supply chains is going to take years, if not decades.

第二個最大的問題是，重建供應鏈需要數年甚至數十年的時間。

Over the last 30 years, companies have spent hundreds of billions of dollars, probably trillions of dollars, setting up the entire infrastructure all across the globe.

在過去的 30 年裡，各家公司花費了數千億美元，甚至可能是數萬億美元，在全球各地建立了整個基礎設施。

So part of it is manufactured in China, for example, let's say it's a car, another part of it is manufactured in Australia, then the entire Southeast Asia, then you have Canada, Mexico, and the rest of the world.

是以，部分產品在中國製造，比如說汽車，另一部分在澳洲製造，然後是整個東南亞，然後是加拿大、墨西哥和世界其他地區。

And even though that the car, for example, is assembled in the United States, it doesn't mean that everything is being built in the United States.

例如，儘管汽車是在美國組裝的，但這並不意味著所有東西都是在美國製造的。

And when you are destroying that entire supply chain where you spent trillions of dollars to build, do you think you can actually rebuild it overnight?

當你正在摧毀你花費數萬億美元建立起來的整個供應鏈時，你認為你真的能在一夜之間重建它嗎？

And if companies are going to rebuild it, and the US is going to force the US companies to rebuild it, they cannot do it for free, they have to spend so much money.

如果公司要重建它，而美國要強迫美國公司重建它，他們就不能白乾，他們必須花很多錢。

And again, ask yourself a question, how do you think the companies are going to recoup the cost that they are going to spend on doing that?

再問你自己一個問題，你認為這些公司如何收回他們為此花費的成本？

They will pass down that cost to consumers, which means that prices are going to rise.

他們將把成本轉嫁給消費者，這意味著價格將上漲。

There is nothing in the world right now is being entirely manufactured in one single country.

現在，世界上沒有任何東西是完全由一個國家制造的。

It's not China, it's not India, it's not Southeast Asia, it's not Canada or Mexico, and you cannot possibly do that.

這裡不是中國，不是印度，不是東南亞，也不是加拿大或墨西哥，你不可能做到這一點。

And with a 150% tariff, it makes no sense, then you have to somehow manufacture it locally.

如果徵收 150% 的關稅，那就沒有意義了，你必須以某種方式在當地生產。

If there is an American manufacturer that produces a specific smartphone or a part for a car and it's not cost-effective, they are not worried about bringing their cost down or becoming more efficient because they are being protected by the government with those huge tariffs of 150% which makes the entire industry very inefficient.

如果有一家美國製造商生產一種特定的智能手機或汽車零件，但成本效益不高，他們並不擔心降低成本或提高效率，因為他們受到政府 150% 鉅額關稅的保護，這使得整個行業效率極低。

But the biggest problem is that, that can actually change the entire consumer behavior.

但最大的問題是，這實際上會改變整個消費行為。

What makes the US such a powerful economy is because people spend money in the United States.

美國經濟之所以如此強大，是因為人們在美國消費。

And even if you are not having that money, you can literally just use a credit card and keep buying stuff.

即使你沒有這筆錢，你也可以用信用卡繼續買東西。

And that spending keeps driving the economy forward.

這些支出不斷推動經濟向前發展。

And that's why the US economy is the world's most powerful economy because people keep spending money.

這就是為什麼美國經濟是世界上最強大的經濟體，因為人們一直在花錢。

But if you see prices are rising and people are living paycheck to paycheck and suddenly they realize that every single year prices are rising because of these tariffs, what kind of a mentality it is going to create within the entire United States.

但是，如果你看到物價上漲，人們的生活捉襟見肘，而他們突然意識到每年物價上漲都是因為這些關稅，那麼整個美國會產生怎樣的心態呢？

You will start thinking, why should I spend money right now when prices are going to rise, I better should actually at least save some money because I don't know if I am going to make money tomorrow.

你會開始想，既然物價要上漲，我為什麼要現在花錢，我最好還是至少存點錢，因為我不知道明天能不能賺到錢。

Because of these tariffs, there is less economic activity, there is less jobs, and there is less money to be made in the economy, which means that people will start spending less and less.

由於這些關稅，經濟活動減少，就業機會減少，經濟中可賺的錢減少，這意味著人們的消費會越來越少。

Even if they wanted to spend, they cannot spend as much as they used to in the past, which means that the economy is going to slide into a recession over time and people will start saving more and more money.

即使他們想消費，也不可能像過去那樣大手大腳，這意味著隨著時間的推移，經濟將陷入衰退，人們將開始越來越多地存錢。

And that will create a deflation environment within the entire economy.

這將在整個經濟中造成通貨緊縮的環境。

It might not happen within the next couple of months, but it can certainly happen within the next couple of years.

這可能不會在未來幾個月內發生，但肯定會在未來幾年內發生。

Less spending will obviously lead to less profits.

支出減少顯然會導致利潤減少。

If you have a business and you are selling bread for example, and now the price of bread have increased, less people buy your bread, which means that there is less revenue in your company tomorrow, which means that there is less profit.

如果你有一家企業，以銷售麵包為例，現在麵包的價格上漲了，買你麵包的人就少了，這意味著你公司明天的收入就少了，這意味著利潤就少了。

And now take this very simple concept and apply it to the entire economy and suddenly you will figure out that amazon will make less money, apple will make less money, which is certainly going to lead to stocks to actually growing much slower than they are right now.

現在把這個非常簡單的概念應用到整個經濟中，你會突然發現亞馬遜賺的錢會越來越少，蘋果賺的錢也會越來越少，這肯定會導致股票的實際增長速度比現在慢得多。

But if that less spending is going to become instant because tomorrow tariffs have been risen so much, then the stock market can crash even further.

但是，如果因為明天關稅大幅提高，減少支出就會變得立竿見影，那麼股市就會進一步崩盤。

High tariffs in order to protect the jobs in the united states.

徵收高額關稅，以保護美國的就業機會。

Then other countries retaliate with the exact same thing.

然後，其他國家也以同樣的方式進行報復。

Other countries are not simply going to watch the united states raising the tariffs on them, they will retaliate with the exact same thing.

其他國家不會眼睜睜地看著美國提高對它們的關稅，它們會以同樣的方式進行報復。

The US raises the tariffs, then Trump raises the tariffs.

美國提高關稅，然後特朗普提高關稅。