Name: "即將到來的比經濟衰退更糟糕"--埃隆-馬斯克的最後警告 ("What’s Coming is Worse Than a Recession" - Elon Musk's Last WARNING)
Uploaded: 2025-07-31T18:27:11.000Z
Duration: 17 min 55 s

基礎被動語態

Elon Musk is disappointed with Trump's big beautiful bill because it goes against everything that Elon Musk was trying to do in the White House.

埃隆-馬斯克對特朗普的美麗大法案感到失望，因為它違背了埃隆-馬斯克在白宮所做的一切努力。

He joined politics in order to help the United States to cut spending and balance its books.

他從政的目的是幫助美國削減開支，實現收支平衡。

And now this big beautiful bill that Trump wants to pass through the Senate and the House is going to destroy everything that Deutsche has done so far.

而現在，特朗普想要在參眾兩院通過的這個漂亮的大法案，將摧毀德意志迄今為止所做的一切。

是以，他對法案提出了非常輕微的責備。

He didn't go very harsh on Trump because he was part of Trump's team all this time.

他對特朗普的評價並不嚴厲，因為他一直是特朗普團隊的一員。

In fact, he is still part of Trump's team.

事實上，他仍然是特朗普團隊的一員。

So here in this video, I want to figure out why exactly Elon Musk is against Trump's biggest bill.

是以，在這段視頻中，我想弄清楚埃隆-馬斯克到底為什麼反對特朗普的最大法案。

Without that bill, Trump probably wouldn't be able to do a lot of the things that he promised that he will do when he becomes the president.

如果沒有這項法案，特朗普可能就無法完成他承諾在就任總統後要做的很多事情。

So let's dig into this bill, figure out what is it exactly, why Elon Musk is exactly against this bill and what kind of an impact it is going to have on the entire government.

是以，讓我們來深入研究這項法案，弄清楚它到底是什麼，為什麼埃隆-馬斯克要反對這項法案，以及它將對整個政府產生什麼樣的影響。

If you are ready, give this video a thumbs up and let's get right into it.

如果您準備好了，請為這段視頻豎起大拇指，讓我們開始吧。

When Elon Musk joined the government under the new department called Doge to save the United States trillions of dollars, the goal was very simple.

當埃隆-馬斯克加入政府名為 "Doge "的新部門，為美國節省數萬億美元時，他的目標非常簡單。

我們究竟該如何解決這個問題？

Initially, the plan was that we can cut the 2 trillion dollars.

最初的計劃是，我們可以削減 2 萬億美元。

If you are earning 5 trillion dollars and you are spending 7 trillion dollars, there is a problem and we should cut the 2 trillion dollar deficit.

如果收入是 5 萬億美元，而支出是 7 萬億美元，那就有問題了，我們應該削減 2 萬億美元的赤字。

But when they joined the government, they realized that that's pretty impossible to do.

但當他們加入政府後，才意識到這是不可能做到的。

So they came up with a completely different plan.

於是，他們想出了一個完全不同的計劃。

We are going to cut only a trillion dollars out of that budget and another trillion dollars is going to be raised from the revenues.

我們將只從預算中削減一萬億美元，另外一萬億美元將從收入中籌集。

So if we increase the revenue from taxes by a trillion dollars and we cut spending by a trillion dollars, then spending will be 6 trillion dollars and revenues will be 6 trillion dollars.

是以，如果我們增加一萬億美元的稅收收入，同時削減一萬億美元的支出，那麼支出將是 6 萬億美元，收入將是 6 萬億美元。

Yes, there is a huge debt, but if we start paying off that debt little by little every single year, within 10 to 20 years, we are going to solve the debt problem.

是的，現在有鉅額債務，但如果我們開始每年一點一點地償還債務，在 10 到 20 年內，我們就能解決債務問題。

But when they got in, the situation was entirely way worse than they could possibly predict.

但當他們進去後，情況完全比他們預想的要糟糕得多。

At the end of the day, according to Doge themselves, they have saved the government 160 billion dollars.

最後，據 Doge 自己說，他們為政府節省了 1600 億美元。

That's a lot of money, but it's literally a dent in the entire budget of the government.

這筆錢雖然不少，但對政府的整個預算來說，簡直是杯水車薪。

However, if you look into independent sources, then they have saved the government somewhere around 60 billion dollars.

不過，如果你查閱獨立的資料來源，那麼它們已經為政府節省了大約 600 億美元。

And some even claim that it's as low as 32 billion dollars.

有些人甚至聲稱低至 320 億美元。

Now I can't tell you for a fact because we have different people counting it in very different ways, but even if we assume hypothetically that they have saved the government 80 to 90 billion dollars, it's not much.

現在我不能告訴你一個事實，因為不同的人計算的方法大相徑庭，但即使我們假設他們為政府節省了 800 億至 900 億美元，這也不算多。

Yes, it's a lot of money for you, it's a lot of money for anybody, but it's nothing for the government of the United States, for the wealthiest economy that has ever existed on the planet earth.

是的，這對你來說是一大筆錢，對任何人來說都是一大筆錢，但對美國政府來說，對地球上有史以來最富有的經濟體來說，這不算什麼。

But the real question is that, why would Elon Musk wants to do that?

但真正的問題是，埃隆-馬斯克為什麼要這麼做？

If you have listened to him very carefully, especially on his Joe Rogan podcast, he made it clear.

如果你認真聽過他的話，尤其是在喬-羅根的播客中，他說得很清楚。

If we continue on this trajectory, sooner or later, in a couple of decades, in less than three decades from now, we'll find ourselves in a situation where the entire budget of the United States will simply be allocated into paying off the interest of the debt holders.

如果我們繼續沿著這條軌跡走下去，遲早有一天，在幾十年後，在不到三十年的時間裡，我們會發現自己處於這樣一種境地：美國的全部預算將被簡單地分配用於償還債務持有人的利息。

Because if you have borrowed money, you have to pay interest.

因為如果你借了錢，就必須支付利息。

And now all the taxes that Americans pay, the 165 million taxpayers in the United States paying all of those taxes, we take it and we pay the interest to the people who lend money to the United States.

現在，美國人繳納的所有稅款，美國 1.65 億納稅人繳納的所有稅款，我們都拿去支付利息給借錢給美國的人。

That is the worst possible solution that you can't find yourself.

這是你自己找不到的最糟糕的解決方案。

Because you won't have the money to pay for social security.

You won't have the money to pay for Medicare.

You won't have the money to build infrastructure.

You will have money for absolutely nothing.

And the current budget clearly illustrates that.

目前的預算清楚地說明了這一點。

And this is the trajectory that it shows the government is headed to.

The government almost raised $5 trillion last year and spent $6.8 trillion.

政府去年幾乎籌集了 5 萬億美元，花費了 6.8 萬億美元。

That leaves the government with $1.9 trillion in deficit.

這使得政府的赤字達到 1.9 萬億美元。

This year, the deficit is going to be $2.1 trillion.

今年，赤字將達到 2.1 萬億美元。

So we are clearly heading into the wrong direction.

是以，我們的方向顯然是錯誤的。

There is defense, there is social security, Medicare.

有國防，有社會保障，有醫療保險。

And this is the debt payments, a trillion dollars in 2024 went directly into paying the interest.

這就是債務支付，2024 年有一萬億美元直接用於支付利息。

Now, I want to make it clear that that trillion dollars did not go into paying off the debt that the United States has.

現在，我想說明的是，這萬億美元並沒有用於償還美國的債務。

試想一下，您有一筆信用卡債務。

Let's say that you have $100,000 in credit card debt.

假設您有 10 萬美元的信用卡債務。

And the interest rate on a credit card debt is probably around 25%.

而信用卡債務的利率大概在 25% 左右。

So you are paying $25,000 in interest for your credit cards.

是以，您需要為信用卡支付 25,000 美元的利息。

And every year or last year, you paid $25,000 in your credit card.

而每年或去年，你都要在信用卡里支付 2.5 萬美元。

Did you cover your credit card interest or the debt?

您支付的是信用卡利息還是債務？

You just pay the interest that your debt has accrued last year.

您只需支付去年債務所產生的利息。

And this is the situation that the government of the United States have found himself.

And that's why Elon Musk is very concerned.

這也是埃隆-馬斯克非常擔心的原因。

If we don't do anything about this spending, about this deficit that we have right now, it's simple mathematics.

如果我們對目前的支出和赤字不採取任何措施，這只是一個簡單的數學問題。

We can literally do the math right now and find out in which year in the future we are going to find ourselves in a situation where all the revenues that is being collected from the taxpayers will go directly into simply paying the interest.

我們現在就可以算一算，未來哪一年我們會發現自己從納稅人那裡獲得的所有收入都將直接用於支付利息。

That is the worst case situation that the government can find yourself in.

這是政府可能遇到的最糟糕的情況。

So if you look at this one big beautiful act bill that is about to pass the Senate, it's still in negotiation because it passed the House.

是以，如果你看一下這個即將在參議院通過的美麗法案，它仍在談判中，因為它已經通過了眾議院。

It will probably come back to the House and then it will go to the desks of the President of the United States to sign it and it will go into law.

它很可能會回到眾議院，然後交由美國總統簽署，併成為法律。

So basically the entire point of this bill is that, first of all, they will extend the tax cuts that they have done back in 2017.

是以，基本上這項法案的全部要點就是：首先，他們將延長 2017 年的減稅政策。

They were one of the largest tax cuts in the history of the United States, but they will also cut taxes on tips.

這是美國曆史上規模最大的減稅措施之一，但同時也會削減小費稅。

They will cut a lot of taxes, which means that less money is going to get into the government.

他們將削減大量稅收，這意味著進入政府的資金將減少。

So the initial goal of raising the revenue by a trillion dollars is already not happening because we are cutting the taxes.

是以，增加一萬億美元收入的最初目標已經無法實現，因為我們正在減稅。

We are cutting, we are making the changes that we made in 2017 permanent for the entire history that is going to be after that.

我們正在削減，我們正在將 2017 年做出的改變永久化，用於之後的整個歷史。

我們將把更多的錢花在國防上。

We'll spend more money on infrastructure.

我們將在基礎設施上投入更多資金。

We'll spend more money in order to be able to compete in the 21st century against the main rival of the United States, and that is China.

為了能夠在 21 世紀與美國的主要競爭對手--中國--競爭，我們將花費更多的資金。

You know, they are literally crushing it, making alliances, growing their economies, and they are a trajectory that they will overtake the United States sometime in the future.

要知道，他們正在實實在在地碾壓美國，結成聯盟，發展經濟，他們的發展軌跡是在未來的某個時候超越美國。

And if we don't want that to happen, then we have to spend a lot of money building the United States to compete with them.

如果我們不希望這種情況發生，那麼我們就必須花費大量資金建設美國，以便與他們競爭。

And that bill means that we are going to spend a lot, especially on defense.

該法案意味著我們將花費大量資金，尤其是在國防方面。

It basically means that the debt is going to keep rising, and that is against the goal of what the Doge was created initially.

這基本上意味著債務會不斷增加，而這與最初設立總督的目標背道而馳。

If we created the Doge to cut spending and raise taxes, raise revenue on the other side, this bill goes directly against that goal.

如果我們創建 "總督 "的目的是為了削減開支、增加稅收、提高另一方的收入，那麼這項法案就直接違背了這一目標。

Where are we going to find ourselves a few years down the road?

這與總督的目標完全背道而馳。

So let's look at the total debt of the United States and find out what this bill is exactly going to do to the total debt.

是以，讓我們來看看美國的債務總額，看看這項法案究竟會對債務總額造成什麼影響。

You see, the debt situation is already significantly bad.

你看，債務情況已經非常糟糕了。

And according to different estimates, it's supposed to hit like $47.6 trillion based on the trajectory that it was going over the last couple of years.

根據不同的估算，按照過去幾年的發展軌跡，應該會達到 47.6 萬億美元。

So if we have the numbers in front of us, we can simply do the math and see where will be the debt by 2030.

是以，如果我們面前有這些數字，就可以簡單地算一算，看看到 2030 年債務會在哪裡。

So now it's 2025, five years from now, 2030, and it's going to be like $47.6 trillion.

現在是 2025 年，五年後是 2030 年，將達到 47.6 萬億美元。

But when this bill is going to keep going past and it's going to become permanent and will do the changes that this bill is supposed to do, at least based on the least expectations and the trajectories that I found, it is going to increase the debt to at least $50 trillion.

但是，當這項法案持續下去，成為永久性法案，並實現法案應該實現的改變時，至少根據我發現的最低預期和軌跡，它將使債務增加到至少50萬億美元。

So that is much higher than the $47 trillion.

是以，這比 47 萬億美元要高得多。

Now at this point, to some people, it makes no other difference because what is the difference between $47.6 trillion to $50 trillion?

現在，對某些人來說，這沒有其他區別，因為 47.6 萬億美元和 50 萬億美元之間有什麼區別呢？

字幕列表影片播放

"即將到來的比經濟衰退更糟糕"--埃隆-馬斯克的最後警告 ("What’s Coming is Worse Than a Recession" - Elon Musk's Last WARNING)

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