Name: 即將到來的衰退比 2008 年更糟糕，將持續幾十年 (What’s Coming is Worse Than 2008 Recession, It Will Last For Decades)
Uploaded: 2025-07-29T17:46:08.000Z
Duration: 14 min 51 s

The one thing that everyone wants are low interest rates.

to 不定詞

Even the president of the United States, just like everyone else, is waiting for Jay Paul to finally say that, this time we are going to lower down interest rates.

就連美國總統也和其他人一樣，在等待傑伊-保羅最後說，這次我們要降低利率。

現在進行式

But in the last meeting of the Fed, Jay Paul made it clear, we are going to keep the rates the way they are.

但在上次美聯儲會議上，傑伊-保羅明確表示，我們將保持利率不變。

And that's what I told you in one of the previous videos just before the Fed meeting took place.

就在美聯儲會議召開之前，我在之前的一個視頻中也是這麼說的。

There are so many reasons to believe that, maybe throughout the entire year of 2025, interest rates will be at around 4.5%.

我們有很多理由相信，也許在 2025 年全年，利率都將保持在 4.5% 左右。

Now low interest rates make investments so easy, so great.

現在的低利率讓投資變得如此簡單、如此美好。

Remember back in 2020, the stock market was growing, crypto was booming, real estate was going all over the place.

還記得 2020 年時，股票市場不斷增長，加密貨幣蓬勃發展，房地產一路高歌猛進。

It doesn't matter where you invested your money, everything was growing so tremendously.

不管你把錢投到哪裡，所有的東西都在飛速增長。

And everybody wants that period to come back.

每個人都希望那段時光能夠重現。

But it seems like, especially from the last meeting of the Fed, it's not happening, at least in the foreseeable future.

但現在看來，尤其是從美聯儲上次會議來看，至少在可預見的未來，這種情況不會發生。

And America is entering a new era of high interest rates.

美國正在進入一個高利率的新時代。

Interest rates most likely are not going to go below 3-4% at least in the next 5-10 years.

至少在未來 5-10 年內，利率很可能不會低於 3-4%。

And as the situation with the national debt deteriorates, situation will get much worse than that.

而隨著國債形勢的惡化，情況會比這更糟。

So let's break down what exactly the chairman of the Fed said, what is the state of the economy and why are we not going to have any kind of low interest rates in the foreseeable future.

是以，讓我們來分析一下美聯儲主席到底說了什麼，經濟狀況如何，以及為什麼在可預見的未來我們不會有任何形式的低利率。

When it comes to interest rates, most likely they are going to stay between 4-4.5% for the entire year, at least that's the projection.

說到利率，很可能全年都會保持在 4-4.5% 之間，至少預測是這樣。

Until there is going to be any kind of clarity, they will not be lowered down.

在情況明朗之前，他們不會被降級。

Next year, the expectations are a bit better than that, they will be between 3.5 to 4%.

明年的預期要比這好一些，將在 3.5% 到 4% 之間。

But that's far from the 1 or 2% that everybody wants to see.

但這與大家希望看到的 1%或 2%相去甚遠。

In the long run, interest rates are expected to be anything between 3-4%.

從長遠來看，利率預計在 3-4% 之間。

And that estimation has been made without considering what might happen in the next 2-3 weeks.

而這一估計並沒有考慮到未來兩三週可能發生的情況。

Will the big beautiful bill is going to be passed?

Will the war with Iran is going to happen?

All of these are massive changes in the global geopolitics that will have profound impact on prices in the United States, which might force the Fed to reconsider their expectations about the future.

所有這些都是全球地緣政治的巨大變化，將對美國的物價產生深遠影響，這可能迫使美聯儲重新考慮他們對未來的預期。

The economy is in a very solid position, because unemployment is very low, it's a little over 2%, but that's actually great considering the fact that we have interest rates of anything between 4% to 4.5%.

經濟狀況非常穩健，因為失業率非常低，只有 2% 多一點，但考慮到我們的利率在 4% 到 4.5% 之間，這實際上已經很不錯了。

However, in the long run, GDP is not going to grow that much, at least for 2025 the expectations are 1.4%.

不過，從長遠來看，國內生產總值的增長不會那麼快，至少 2025 年的預期增長率為 1.4%。

And that makes sense, because the United States right now is in a very weird situation, it does not have clear trade agreements with other countries, even with its closest neighbors, it doesn't know where the economy is going to be a few years from now, and the GDP expectations for next year will be around 1.6%.

這是有道理的，因為美國現在的情況非常奇怪，它沒有與其他國家，甚至是最親密的鄰國達成明確的貿易協定，它不知道幾年後的經濟會怎樣，明年的國內生產總值預期將在1.6%左右。

So forget the period of the United States growing at 2.5%.

是以，忘掉美國以 2.5%的速度增長的時期吧。

You know they are making an argument that we are going to cut taxes so much that the economy will grow at 2.5-3%, that's not happening, at least according to the Fed.

要知道，他們提出的論點是，我們將大幅減稅，經濟增長率將達到 2.5%-3%，但這是不可能的，至少美聯儲是這麼認為的。

And in the long run, the expectations are even below 2%, which means that the national debt from now onwards will be growing significantly faster than the GDP and the government will not have enough revenues to sustain that debt.

而從長遠來看，預期甚至低於 2%，這意味著從現在開始，國債的增長速度將大大超過 GDP 的增長速度，而政府將沒有足夠的收入來維持債務。

The Fed has done a great job bringing inflation to around 2.4%, but it's not going to hit 2% in the next two years and it will be above 2%.

美聯儲已經做了大量工作，將通脹率降至 2.4% 左右，但未來兩年通脹率不會達到 2%，而會高於 2%。

In the long run, the expectations are 2% of course, but nonetheless, unless we bring that inflation to around 2% and the Fed will have a strong grip over that inflation, forget about lowering down interest rates.

從長遠來看，人們的預期當然是 2%，但儘管如此，除非我們將通脹率提高到 2%左右，而且美聯儲將對通脹率有很強的控制力，否則就別想降低利率了。

And according to the Fed itself, if they are not going to bring it down by 2027 and 2028, then forget the low interest rates of below 3%.

而根據美聯儲自己的說法，如果他們不打算在 2027 年和 2028 年之前降低利率，那麼就忘了低於 3% 的低利率吧。

The Fed's main goal, without price stability, we cannot achieve maximum employment.

美聯儲的主要目標是，沒有物價穩定，我們就無法實現最大就業。

The job of the Fed is to make sure that there is full employment in the United States and the only way you can do that is when you have price stability, because if there is no price stability, businesses do not know how to plan.

美聯儲的職責是確保美國實現充分就業，而實現充分就業的唯一途徑就是物價穩定，因為如果物價不穩定，企業就不知道如何制定計劃。

Imagine for a moment a situation where prices are rising too fast, then suddenly people will start demanding higher wages, for making 50 thousand dollars and if it's not enough to pay for the basic bills, you are going to ask for a higher wage, and if it's not going to be provided for you, you will start looking for a different job that is going to provide you with that wage that will pay your basic necessities at least.

試想一下，在物價上漲過快的情況下，人們會突然開始要求更高的工資，因為掙 5 萬美元如果還不夠支付基本的賬單，你就會要求更高的工資，如果不能為你提供更高的工資，你就會開始尋找另一份工作，為你提供至少能支付基本生活必需品的工資。

Then businesses will take that cost and they will pass it down to their consumers, and that means higher prices for consumers as well, and it turns into this never ending cycle of prices consistently rising and rising and rising.

然後，企業會將這一成本轉嫁給消費者，這就意味著消費者的價格也會提高，這就形成了價格不斷上漲、上漲、再上漲的永無休止的循環。

So you as a business, what are you going to do next?

那麼，作為一家企業，你下一步打算怎麼做？

You will suddenly start cutting costs, or you will start cutting your jobs, because you don't know where the prices are going to be.

你會突然開始削減成本，或者開始裁員，因為你不知道價格會在哪裡。

You started this business because you wanted to make money, this business is not going to survive if it's not profitable, and if prices are rising so fast, if your employees are consistently asking for higher wages, how are you supposed to do this business?

如果物價上漲如此之快，如果你的員工一直在要求更高的工資，你怎麼能做這個生意？

Unstable prices create the biggest problem for businesses, which is uncertainty.

價格不穩定給企業帶來的最大問題是不確定性。

The only way you can do a business is when there is certainty, especially when it comes to prices.

只有在確定的情況下才能做生意，尤其是在價格方面。

If you buy something from one country, and by the time you get it to a different country and prices rise so much, can you do business?

如果你從一個國家買東西，到了另一個國家，價格上漲了這麼多，你還能做生意嗎？

And that's why if you look at the map right now and find out the countries with high inflation, you see that businesses are not doing great over there.

這就是為什麼如果你看看現在的地圖，找出通貨膨脹率高的國家，你就會發現那裡的企業經營狀況並不好。

You see that businesses, other corporations are avoiding that country, because how are they supposed to get into that country, build their global supply chains to cross the globe when they don't know what is going to be the final price, when they don't know how much people will pay at the end of the day for that.

你會發現，企業和其他公司都在迴避那個國家，因為他們不知道最終的價格是多少，不知道人們最終會為此支付多少錢，他們怎麼能進入那個國家，建立他們的全球供應鏈，跨越全球。

Less investments means that less jobs will be created, and that brings us to the main problem that the Fed is trying to create, maximum employment in the country.

投資減少意味著創造的就業機會減少，這就引出了美聯儲要解決的主要問題，即最大限度地增加國內就業。

However, Trump's entire presidency is uncertainty, let's call it strategic ambiguity, and nobody knows for a fact what Donald Trump is going to do next.

然而，特朗普的整個總統任期都充滿了不確定性，我們姑且稱之為戰略模糊性，沒有人確切知道唐納德-特朗普下一步要做什麼。

I think even he himself is not sure what he is going to do next.

我想，就連他自己也不確定下一步該怎麼做。

He will take his final decision at the last moment, and I think he's doing that purposely.

他將在最後一刻做出最終決定，我認為他是故意這樣做的。

It's not me trying to criticize him, but it's his way of doing politics.

這不是我想責備他，而是他的從政方式。

It's his way of presenting and projecting power, because nobody around him knows for a fact what he's going to do, so nobody can control him, and he's the final person who takes this decision.

這是他展示和投射權力的方式，因為他周圍的人都不知道他要做什麼，所以沒人能控制他，他是最終做出決定的人。

But that strategic ambiguity is creating uncertainty, because what is the opposite of ambiguity?

但這種戰略模糊性正在製造不確定性，因為模糊性的反面是什麼？

You have ambiguity, and the opposite of that is certainty.

你有模糊性，而模糊性的反面就是確定性。

You don't have certainty, then how the Fed is supposed to make any kind of decisions?

你沒有確定性，那麼美聯儲如何做出任何決定？

That's what the Fed has emphasized in the last meeting.

這也是美聯儲在上次會議上所強調的。

The United States so far has signed a trade deal with the United Kingdom, and that trade deal is not even certain whether it's going to last for a long time.

到目前為止，美國已經與英國簽署了一份貿易協議，而這份貿易協議是否會持續很長時間都還不確定。

Secondly, there are negotiations with China, and they came to an agreement of basic things when it comes to trade with China.

其次，與中國進行了談判，並就對華貿易的基本事項達成了協議。

But again, that trade agreement will last for the next 6 months.

但同樣，該貿易協定將持續 6 個月。

How that trade deal is going to look like?

China is one of the major trading partners of the United States.

中國是美國的主要貿易伙伴之一。

So you are the chairman of the Fed, how are you supposed to make these projections when you have no idea whatsoever what the president will do at the end of the day?

你是美聯儲主席，在你完全不知道總統最後會怎麼做的情況下，你怎麼能做出這些預測？

The number of immigrants in the country has a profound impact on wages.

國內移民的數量對工資有著深遠的影響。

If you have a lot of illegal immigrants who are going to take really cheap jobs, then a lot of companies can lower down their cost.

如果有大量非法移民從事非常廉價的工作，那麼很多公司就可以降低成本。

Even legal immigration, it's the exact same thing.

即使是合法移民，也是完全一樣的。

Immigrants often ask for lower wages than the native people.

移民要求的工資往往低於本地人。

It doesn't matter which country we are talking about, even the United States.

不管我們談論的是哪個國家，甚至是美國。

Which means that if we don't have a clear understanding of the number of immigrants that will come to the US, then we won't have a clear understanding how the cost will look like in the foreseeable future.

這就意味著，如果我們不能清楚地瞭解來到美國的移民人數，那麼我們就無法清楚地瞭解在可預見的未來，成本將會是怎樣的。

Whether it will be high or low, it doesn't matter.

We need to have some kind of certainty about it.

The government raises money from taxes or debt and then starts spending that money.

政府從稅收或債務中籌集資金，然後開始花費這些錢。

And nobody in the economy spends as much as the government.

而在經濟領域，沒有人像政府一樣花錢如流水。

They spend on the military, they pay social security, medicare, and all those dollars circulate within the entire economy and create this economic growth.

他們花費在軍事上，他們支付社會保險和醫療保險，所有這些錢都在整個經濟中流通，並創造了這種經濟增長。

But any kind of spending is also inflationary.

但任何形式的支出都會造成通貨膨脹。

More money being spent, higher inflation.

The demand for any goods increases their prices.

對任何商品的需求都會提高其價格。

That's the question that the Fed is most likely or certainly asking themselves.

這是美聯儲最有可能或肯定會問自己的問題。

First of all, there is the big beautiful bill.

This bill is supposed to cut taxes and increase spending.

An extra 150 billion dollars for the military, increased tax cuts.

為軍隊額外撥款1500億美元，增加減稅。

So we don't know for a fact how much the government is going to spend.

是以，我們並不清楚政府會花多少錢。

On one side, they are trying to cut taxes, which is going to cut the government's revenue.

一方面，他們試圖減稅，這將減少政府的收入。

On the other side, they are increasing expenses.

另一方面，他們也在增加開支。

So where are these extra expenses are going to come from?

那麼，這些額外開支從何而來？

Obviously, there is one way, that's debt.

顯然，有一個辦法，那就是債務。

And if you cannot raise that money from the public debt, then you will raise it from the Federal Reserve.

如果無法從公債中籌集資金，那就從美聯儲中籌集。

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即將到來的衰退比 2008 年更糟糕，將持續幾十年 (What’s Coming is Worse Than 2008 Recession, It Will Last For Decades)

literally

entire

situation

profound