Name: "大事即將來臨......沒有人準備好" (“Something Big Is Coming… And No One Is Ready”)
Uploaded: 2025-07-28T17:54:00.000Z
Duration: 12 min 35 s

現在進行式

Something weird is happening with gold prices.

金價正在發生一些奇怪的事情。

Over the last 6 months, gold prices have risen by around 30%.

在過去 6 個月裡，金價上漲了約 30%。

In comparison, the S&P 500 has grown by less than 2%.

相比之下，標準普爾 500 指數的增長率不到 2%。

And it should be the other way around, because the S&P 500 represents real companies that produce real goods and services, while gold doesn't produce as much.

而事實應該恰恰相反，因為標準普爾 500 指數代表的是生產實際商品和服務的真實公司，而黃金並不生產那麼多商品和服務。

Even if you compare it to some of the prominent companies in the stock market, such as Apple, Apple has lost around 20% of market share over the exact same period.

即使與股票市場上的一些著名公司（如蘋果公司）相比，蘋果公司在同一時期的市場份額也下降了約 20%。

How is it possible that an asset that does not produce anything over the last 12 months has grown by 50%?

在過去的 12 個月裡，一項不生產任何東西的資產怎麼可能增長了 50%？

它在電子產品中也有一些用途。

Computers and smartphones contain a little amount of gold.

電腦和智能手機都含有少量黃金。

Only less than 7% of all the demand for gold is for the smartphones, while there is a huge demand for jewelry as well.

在所有黃金需求中，只有不到 7% 用於智能手機，而珠寶首飾的需求量也很大。

But most people do not view gold as a form of investment.

但大多數人並不認為黃金是一種投資形式。

Because if you are investing in something, you want your investment to produce something.

因為如果你要投資某樣東西，你就希望你的投資能產生某種結果。

You would buy a house that you can rent out.

You would invest in a business that produces real value consistently.

你會投資於一個能持續產生真正價值的企業。

Apple produces smartphones, Amazon produces fast delivery, Nvidia produces the chips that power today's AI.

蘋果生產智能手機，亞馬遜生產快速快遞，Nvidia 生產為當今人工智能提供動力的芯片。

If you zoom out and take a look at gold prices historically, you will instantly see that there was a very long period of time where gold prices have been very stable.

如果放大歷史上的黃金價格，你會立刻發現，在很長一段時間內，黃金價格一直非常穩定。

And in 2020, something fundamentally happened that changed the trajectory of gold prices and suddenly they started growing tremendously.

到了 2020 年，一些根本性的事情發生了，改變了金價的軌跡，金價突然開始大幅增長。

Ever since 2020, they have grown by 120%, which makes gold one of the best investments in the market.

自 2020 年以來，黃金已經增長了 120%，成為市場上最好的投資品之一。

So many businesses, so many stocks, so many crypto have gone bankrupt over the last 5 years, especially in 2020 when the Fed hiked the rates.

在過去 5 年裡，有那麼多企業、那麼多股票、那麼多加密貨幣破產，尤其是在 2020 年美聯儲加息時。

But we are seeing the absolute opposite effect on gold.

但我們看到的是對黃金絕對相反的影響。

There is only one reason why prices of anything would possibly rise.

任何東西的價格都有可能上漲，原因只有一個。

And why did they decide suddenly that they want to buy so much gold right now that prices have shot to the roof?

為什麼他們會突然決定現在就買這麼多黃金，以至於價格飆升到屋頂？

There aren't many people who can buy so much gold that they can create such a huge demand that would spike prices.

沒有多少人能夠購買如此多的黃金，以至於產生如此巨大的需求，使價格飆升。

And if they are doing that, then maybe we are going back to the gold standard since the demand for gold is rising.

如果他們這樣做了，那麼也許我們又要回到金本位制了，因為對黃金的需求正在上升。

Remember, the greatest competitor to the US dollar is not any other currency, because other currencies would not even come close to the US dollar.

請記住，美元的最大競爭對手不是任何其他貨幣，因為其他貨幣根本無法與美元相提並論。

So if demand for gold is rising, then the demand for the dollar is falling down which is the greatest threat to the existence of the dollar as the superpower currency that controls the world and makes the US such a powerful economy.

是以，如果對黃金的需求上升，那麼對美元的需求就會下降，這是對美元作為超級大國貨幣存在的最大威脅，因為美元控制著世界，並使美國成為如此強大的經濟體。

But to answer those questions, we have to understand how gold prices work in the first place.

但要回答這些問題，我們首先要了解金價是如何運作的。

If you look at gold prices historically, you will see that there are sudden spikes, such as in the 1970s or the 2000s.

如果你回顧歷史上的黃金價格，你會發現金價會突然飆升，例如在 20 世紀 70 年代或 21 世紀初。

On the other side, which you see that, there are very long periods where gold prices have been extremely stable for a very long time.

從另一方面看，在很長一段時間內，金價都非常穩定。

Whenever there is a crisis and massive devaluation of the currency, gold prices instantly jump.

每當出現危機和貨幣大幅貶值時，黃金價格就會立即跳水。

Back in the 1970s, first of all, we had an abandonment of the gold standard which created the first inflation, but it was followed by a massive shock prices of oil when Arab nations decided to embargo the United States, and a shortage of oil in the market shot prices to the roof which created massive inflation in the US.

20 世紀 70 年代，首先，我們放棄了金本位制，這造成了第一次通貨膨脹，但緊隨其後的是阿拉伯國家決定對美國實施禁運，石油價格大幅震盪，市場上石油短缺，價格飆升，這在美國造成了大規模通貨膨脹。

So even if the Fed had hiked the rates so much, it did not stop that inflation which led to the gold prices to rise as much as you see it.

是以，即使美聯儲大幅加息，也無法阻止導致金價上漲的通貨膨脹。

In the 2000s, United States started an invasion of a country that was one of the major producers of oil.

2000 年代，美國開始入侵一個主要產油國。

But that was followed by the greatest crisis of the 21st century when the housing market in the US crashed, when the mortgage-backed securities that everybody so eagerly invested in totally collapsed.

但緊隨其後的是 21 世紀最嚴重的危機，當時美國房地產市場崩潰，大家熱衷投資的抵押貸款支持證券完全崩潰。

That brought down the US economy to its knees, and as a result of that, the entire global economy suffered.

美國經濟是以一蹶不振，全球經濟也是以遭受重創。

And you can clearly see that how that affected gold prices.

你可以清楚地看到這對金價的影響。

On the other side, there are periods where gold prices did not rise that much.

另一方面，有些時期金價並沒有上漲那麼多。

In fact, they have even gone down since then.

事實上，從那時起，它們甚至下降了。

And that's because the United States economy during this period was growing tremendously, it defeated the Soviet Union and won the cold war.

這是因為美國經濟在此期間取得了巨大增長，打敗了蘇聯，贏得了冷戰。

And the US influence and the US economy and the power of the United States went beyond that anybody could possibly imagine back in the 1980s.

美國的影響力、美國的經濟和美國的力量超出了 20 世紀 80 年代任何人的想象。

And that's why in the 1990s, gold prices started falling down.

這就是為什麼在 20 世紀 90 年代，金價開始下跌的原因。

The entire global economy depends on the confidence in the United States.

整個全球經濟都取決於對美國的信心。

In 2008, to save the economy, the United States did one of the most unthinkable things ever, which is massive quantitative easing.

2008 年，為了挽救經濟，美國做了一件最匪夷所思的事情，那就是大規模量化寬鬆。

So it wasn't that gold suddenly became more valuable.

是以，並不是黃金突然變得更值錢了。

When you see that gold prices are rising so much, it's not that gold suddenly became different and now we can use gold for something else.

當你看到金價大幅上漲時，並不是黃金突然變得與眾不同，現在我們可以用黃金來做別的事情了。

Or it's not because the world has changed.

或者說，這不是因為世界變了。

It's because the Federal Reserve has printed so much money that it devalued the dollar and the effect of that was simply rising gold prices.

這是因為美聯儲印了太多的鈔票，導致美元貶值，其結果只是黃金價格上漲。

So what exactly has happened in 2018 that suddenly everything has changed and it got out of control and it spiraled to $3,500.

那麼，2018 年究竟發生了什麼，突然間一切都變了，變得一發不可收拾，飆升至 3500 美元。

United States suddenly wanted to start a trade war with China.

美國突然想與中國開打貿易戰。

When Trump was elected president and he imposed those tariffs against China, it sent a clear message to the rest of the world that the United States is afraid, that the United States no longer can win this war economically through free trade, but would rather have to use some kind of war in order to win it, that China is now a real threat to the United States.

當特朗普當選總統並對中國徵收這些關稅時，他向世界其他國家發出了一個明確的資訊：美國害怕了，美國不再能夠通過自由貿易在經濟上贏得這場戰爭，而是寧願通過某種戰爭才能贏得這場戰爭，中國現在是美國的真正威脅。

So when confidence in the United States goes down, the confidence in the dollar suddenly starts to shrink and it increases gold prices.

是以，當對美國的信心下降時，對美元的信心就會突然開始萎縮，從而使金價上漲。

And the United States made it clear that it is ready to borrow as much money as possible in order to win this war.

美國明確表示，為了贏得這場戰爭，它準備借儘可能多的錢。

In 2020, it borrowed trillions of dollars.

Last year, it borrowed over 2 trillion dollars.

If you look at the independent or bipartisan experts who actually made their analysis, they are showing you clearly that the United States is on a trajectory that it will continue borrowing trillions of dollars to win this trade war against China and everyone else and establish the US supremacy over the world yet again.

如果你看看那些真正做出分析的獨立或兩黨專家，他們正向你清楚地表明，美國正走在這樣一條軌跡上：它將繼續借貸數萬億美元，以打贏這場針對中國和其他所有人的貿易戰，並再次確立美國在世界上的霸主地位。

And that again means that more dollars in the economy, higher gold prices.

這又意味著，經濟中的美元越多，金價就越高。

China is trying to diversify its portfolio by selling its treasury bills.

中國正試圖通過出售國庫券來實現投資組合的多樣化。

If you go back to 2015 and 2016, China was the largest holder of US treasury bills.

如果追溯到 2015 年和 2016 年，中國是美國國債的最大持有者。

But since then, they started massively selling their treasury bills and using that money to buy a lot of gold in the market, which increased the demand for gold and decreased the demand for treasury bills.

但從那時起，他們開始大量拋售國庫券，並用這些錢在市場上大量購買黃金，這就增加了對黃金的需求，減少了對國庫券的需求。

Even when the Fed hiked the rates in 2020, which is supposed to have an effect of reducing gold prices because they would make the dollar much more valuable, it didn't have much of an influence and prices still kept rising after that.

即使美聯儲在 2020 年加息，本應起到降低金價的作用，因為加息會使美元更加值錢，但這並沒有產生多大影響，此後金價仍在不斷上漲。

United States is increasingly taking decisions or policies that are isolating the United States and destroying the global financial system that the United States itself has created.

美國越來越多地採取孤立美國的決定或政策，破壞美國自己創建的全球金融體系。

It's starting trade wars, implementing isolation policies, and is trying to move countries outside of the sphere and influence of the United States.

它挑起貿易戰，實施孤立政策，並試圖將各國置於美國的勢力範圍之外。

Why would you actually sanction countries that they stop using the dollar and as a result of that, the weakness of the dollar starts to emerge?

為什麼要制裁那些停止使用美元的國家，從而導致美元開始疲軟？

As a result of that, less people start using the dollar.

是以，越來越少的人開始使用美元。

On one side, you want the dollar to be the global reserve currency.

一方面，你希望美元成為全球儲備貨幣。

On the other side, you have sanctioned Iran, you have sanctioned Russia, and now you're threatening to even sanction China if they do something that you don't like.

另一方面，你們制裁了伊朗，制裁了俄羅斯，現在又威脅說，如果中國做了你們不喜歡的事情，你們甚至會制裁中國。

And China is not Iran, it's the world's second largest economy.

中國不是伊朗，而是世界第二大經濟體。

And a lot of countries are deeply connected to the Chinese economy and sanctioning China or trying to limit China's influence or China's growth economically is only going to result China using the dollar much less and using the local currency much more often.

很多國家都與中國經濟有著千絲萬縷的聯繫，制裁中國或試圖限制中國的影響力或中國的經濟增長，只會導致中國更少地使用美元，而更多地使用本幣。

So we are moving into a multi-polar world where the United States is no longer going to be the only superpower.

是以，我們正在進入一個多極世界，美國不再是唯一的超級大國。

It will not be the only country that has monopoly over the world.

它不會是唯一壟斷世界的國家。

But how are the rules of the game will look like?

Because multi-polar world will have its own rules.

因為多極世界將有自己的規則。

When you have one country that has full supremacy over the world, you have certain types of  And that means that those rules will be created by the United States.

當一個國家在世界上擁有完全的至高無上的地位時，就會出現某些類型的規則，這意味著這些規則將由美國製定。

And for investors, it's very clear, the US is the leader and we trust the dollar.

對於投資者來說，很明顯，美國是領頭羊，我們信任美元。

And now when we have multi-polar world where we have different countries that have different sphere of influences, how will that world look like?

現在，當我們的世界多極化，不同的國家擁有不同的影響範圍時，這個世界會是什麼樣子？

Whose currency will be the global reserve currency?

誰的貨幣將成為全球儲備貨幣？

Well, we'll continue having the dollar as the global currency reserve, but the United States will no longer have this sanctioning policy against other countries.

我們將繼續把美元作為全球貨幣儲備，但美國將不再對其他國家採取制裁政策。

Because we don't know the rules, it's much safer for us to park a huge portion of our portfolio into some kind of risk-free assets such as gold, especially with two major conflicts that are happening.

因為我們不知道規則，所以對我們來說，將投資組合的很大一部分投資於黃金等無風險資產要安全得多，尤其是在兩大沖突正在發生的情況下。

The United States might as well lose Europe.

If Russia is going to win the conflicts happening in Europe right now, it will be economically much stronger, demographically and geographically much bigger.

如果俄羅斯要在目前歐洲發生的衝突中獲勝，那麼它的經濟實力、人口和地理位置都將大大增強。

And it might have a much bigger influence over the rest of Europe compared to the United States.

與美國相比，它對歐洲其他地區的影響可能要大得多。

Remember, United States is on the other part of the world, where Russia is just their neighbor.

請記住，美國在世界的另一端，而俄羅斯只是他們的鄰居。

Secondly, Germany is already asking the United States to bring its gold back to Germany.

其次，德國已經在要求美國將其黃金運回德國。

After World War II, a lot of countries, especially European countries such as Germany and Italy, kept their gold in the United States.

第二次世界大戰後，很多國家，尤其是德國和意大利等歐洲國家，都把黃金留在了美國。

But recently, since Trump took office, they are asking for their gold back because they no longer trust the United States as much as they did back in the days.

但最近，自特朗普上臺以來，他們要求拿回自己的黃金，因為他們不再像過去那樣信任美國了。

Secondly, there is a huge conflict that's taking place in the Middle East.

其次，中東正在發生一場巨大的衝突。

And because the United States had to use military force against Iran clearly shows that the United States' economic power is not as strong as it has always been.

美國不得不對伊朗動用軍事力量，這清楚地表明，美國的經濟實力並不像以往那樣強大。

Because if you have sanctioned a country for 50 years and you expect their economy to collapse and yet they have only emerged stronger, what does it tell you about the state of your power economically?

因為如果你制裁一個國家長達 50 年，你預期他們的經濟會崩潰，但他們卻變得更加強大，這說明了你的經濟實力如何？

So the main question is that, will oil prices continue rising?

是以，主要問題是，油價會繼續上漲嗎？

Based on the graph that you see in front of you, the answer is crystal clear, yes.

根據您眼前的圖表，答案非常明確，是的。

Because the United States will continue running a huge deficit at least until 2035.

因為至少在 2035 年之前，美國仍將面臨鉅額赤字。

But until the government keeps running that huge deficit to win this trade war against China and everyone else, the dollar will continue being devalued and the direct result of that is going to be higher gold prices.

但是，在政府為了打贏這場針對中國和其他所有人的貿易戰而不斷出現鉅額赤字之前，美元將繼續貶值，而貶值的直接結果就是金價上漲。