Name: 為什麼說特朗普的美日貿易協定是一場災難？ (Why Trump’s US-Japan trade deal is a DISASTER)
Uploaded: 2025-07-25T19:00:26.000Z
Duration: 13 min 26 s

過去簡單式

The United States just signed a trade deal with Japan, and it's a complete disaster.

美國剛剛與日本簽署了一項貿易協議，這簡直是一場災難。

情態助動詞 A2

I wish I could say that it's not as bad as you think, but when you look at the details of this deal, it's actually a horrible deal.

我希望我可以說這並不像你想象的那麼糟糕，但當你看到這筆交易的細節時，它實際上是一筆可怕的交易。

動名詞

Without actually jumping into conclusions, let me explain why this deal is so bad.

在不妄下結論的前提下，讓我來解釋一下為什麼這筆交易如此糟糕。

Well, according to the white house itself, there is going to be a 15% tariff on all the The second part of this deal is that Japan will invest 550 billion dollars into the United States.

這項協議的第二部分是，日本將向美國投資 5500 億美元。

And it sounds great, if Japan is investing so much money into the United States, how that is not a good deal, how is that a bad deal, it makes no economic sense whatsoever.

聽起來很不錯，如果日本向美國投資這麼多錢，這怎麼會是一筆好交易呢，怎麼會是一筆壞交易呢，這完全沒有經濟意義。

The third part of this deal is that Japan will open its market for the United States.

這項協議的第三部分是，日本將向美國開放市場。

And as Donald Trump called it, it is probably the biggest deal ever signed.

正如唐納德-特朗普所說，這可能是有史以來簽署的最大一筆交易。

Now, on paper, this looks like a really great deal.

現在，從紙面上看，這似乎是一筆非常划算的交易。

But the real question is that, what does the 550 billion dollar investment by Japan into the United States means.

但真正的問題是，日本向美國投資 5500 億美元意味著什麼。

America will choose the projects, and all that Japan has to do is to provide the financing.

美國將選擇項目，日本只需提供資金。

When you are providing financing, there are two ways to do that, one that's going to be in the form of a loan.

提供融資有兩種方式，一種是貸款。

And if it's a loan, then it carries interest.

That means that if the US wants to build an AI data center, the Japanese bank is going to finance it at a certain amount of interest rate, and that data center will be built in the United States, it will provide jobs in the United States, but then the United States will simply have to pay back the loan plus interest.

這意味著，如果美國想建一個人工智能數據中心，日本銀行將以一定的利率為其提供融資，該數據中心將建在美國，它將為美國提供就業機會，但隨後美國只需償還貸款和利息即可。

The second way to do that, it's going to be equity type of financing.

And that means that the Japanese will own a piece of that business.

這意味著日本人將擁有該業務的一部分。

So if you are building an AI data center or a pharmaceutical business in the United States, it will be built in the United States, maybe by a US company, and the equity will be split between a Japanese company and a US company.

是以，如果你要在美國建立一個人工智能數據中心或製藥企業，那麼它將在美國建立，可能由一家美國公司負責，股權將由一家日本公司和一家美國公司平分。

First of all, they haven't actually mentioned a deadline.

首先，他們實際上沒有提到最後期限。

Will the 550 billion dollar be invested within a year or two or three?

5,500 億美元是否會在一年、兩年或三年內投入？

And I've listened to the entire interview, and he made it clear that there isn't a clear deadline.

我聽了整個採訪，他明確表示沒有明確的最後期限。

So this money might be invested in the US within two years or three years, or maybe within the next five to 10 years.

是以，這筆錢可能會在兩年或三年內投資到美國，也可能會在未來五到十年內投資到美國。

You see, that has already been happening in the United States for almost 30 years.

你看，這種情況在美國已經發生了近 30 年。

And this is nothing new, and they have already invested in the US trillions of dollars.

這並不是什麼新鮮事，他們已經在美國投資了數萬億美元。

I've explained this in a previous video, but let me give you a recap.

我在之前的視頻中已經解釋過這個問題，但還是讓我給大家複述一下吧。

So basically, the interest rates in Japan are about 0.5%.

是以，日本的利率基本上約為 0.5%。

And Japanese banks often borrow money from the bank of Japan and then lend that money to the US government in form of a debt by buying US government bonds.

而日本銀行經常從日本銀行借錢，然後通過購買美國政府債券，以債務形式將錢借給美國政府。

Because the interest rates in the United States are much higher than the interest rates in Japan.

So imagine you're a Japanese bank and you borrow money at 0.5% interest rate from the bank of Japan, and then you loan it to the US government at 4% interest rate or 5% interest rate.

想象一下，你是一家日本銀行，以 0.5% 的利率從日本銀行借錢，然後以 4% 或 5% 的利率借給美國政府。

And then the US government will take that money and will spend it.

然後，美國政府就會把這些錢拿去花掉。

And the United States government will decide how to spend that money, whether the US wants to build an AI data center, whether the US wants to build an educational facility, or maybe simply they want to give it to Lockheed Martin for another military project.

美國政府將決定如何使用這筆錢，是要建立一個人工智能數據中心，還是要建立一個教育設施，或者乾脆把錢交給洛克希德-馬丁公司，用於另一個軍事項目。

The job of the Japanese banks is to provide the financing through a loan, and they will get their money back plus interest.

日本銀行的工作是通過貸款提供資金，然後他們會連本帶利地收回資金。

So how this system is going to be different from what is already happening.

那麼，這個系統將如何不同於已經發生的情況呢？

And they have already invested 1.1 trillion dollars.

他們已經投資了 1.1 萬億美元。

That is how much money the US government owes to the bank of Japan or to the Japanese banks in general and Japanese corporations, including the bank of Japan.

這就是美國政府欠日本銀行或一般日本銀行和日本公司（包括日本銀行）的錢。

How this deal is going to be different from this?

But this has already been happening all this time in Japan and the United States.

但這種情況在日本和美國一直都在發生。

So you have Japanese corporations who are making stuff, such as Toyota.

是以，就有了豐田這樣的日本企業來製造產品。

They build their thing and they bring them to the United States and they will sell their Toyotas across the US states.

他們製造自己的東西，然後帶到美國，在美國各州銷售他們的豐田汽車。

當他們賣掉它們時，他們就能獲利。

Now they have extra money in their pockets.

現在，他們的口袋裡多了一筆錢。

Think of Toyota, Hyundai, LG, no LG is probably a Korean company, but think about the Japanese corporations.

想想豐田、現代、LG，LG 可能不是韓國公司，但想想日本公司。

What do you think they do with that profit?

你覺得他們怎麼處理這些利潤？

There are two things they do with that profit.

Either they will loan it to the US government, again, the exact same thing, at some kind of an interest rate, and they will receive interest rate by loaning that money to the US government.

要麼，他們會把錢借給美國政府，還是那句話，按某種利率計算，他們把錢借給美國政府就能獲得利息。

The second thing they usually do is that they will either invest it in a business, they might buy a business, or they will simply invest it in the stock market because they have all that extra dollars in the United States.

他們通常會做的第二件事是，要麼把錢投資到企業中，他們可能會購買一家企業，或者乾脆把錢投資到股票市場，因為他們在美國有這麼多額外的美元。

Currently, Japanese companies own something between 1.5 to 2 trillion dollars of US stocks.

目前，日本公司持有約 1.5 萬億至 2 萬億美元的美國股票。

And it can vary depends on the stock market.

If the stock market is down, that valuation will be lower.

如果股市下跌，估值就會降低。

If the stock market is growing tremendously, then that valuation could reach 2 trillion dollars.

如果股市大幅增長，那麼估值可能達到 2 萬億美元。

So, in total so far, between the debt and equity, Japan has invested in the US around 3 trillion dollars in the exact same way.

是以，迄今為止，在債務和股權之間，日本總共以完全相同的方式在美國投資了約 3 萬億美元。

And if this continues, and the United States will say to Japan that, oh, we need a loan for something, well, that has already been happening.

如果這種情況繼續下去，美國會對日本說，哦，我們需要貸款做什麼，那麼，這種情況已經發生了。

The problem is that Japan, or I would say that the US government hasn't been managing that money properly.

問題是，日本，或者說美國政府沒有妥善管理這筆錢。

The US government hasn't been spending that money on the US people by building data centers, but rather the US has been spending that money, for example, to pay its previous debts.

美國政府並沒有通過建設數據中心把這些錢花在美國人民身上，相反，美國一直在花這些錢，比如，用來償還以前的債務。

Or the US government has been spending that money by increasing the defense budget.

或者說，美國政府一直在通過增加國防預算來花這筆錢。

So the question is that, how this is going to be different.

那麼問題來了，這將會有什麼不同呢？

They will continue providing the financing to the US government, no problem, it has been happening since 1996 or even prior to that because they have been selling so much in the United States.

他們將繼續向美國政府提供融資，這沒有問題，從 1996 年甚至在此之前就已經開始了，因為他們在美國的銷售量一直很大。

But as we can see that, it hasn't been working.

但我們可以看到，這並沒有奏效。

So I don't see how this could possibly be different from what has been happening over the last 30 years, if it's going to be a loan or equity type of a financing.

是以，如果是貸款或股權類型的融資，我看不出這與過去 30 年發生的情況有什麼不同。

The second thing they said that Japan will finally open their markets to the United States.

他們說的第二件事是，日本最終將向美國開放市場。

And again, let's listen to what exactly the secretary of commerce said about it.

讓我們再聽聽商務部長到底是怎麼說的。

I'm not going to put words in their mouth, just listen to what he said.

我不想對他們說三道四，聽聽他是怎麼說的吧。

So if they say to the president, we will open our market to you, like, and I mean really open it, meaning we will take US cars, like think of what the Japanese did, they said, we will take US cars based on US standards.

是以，如果他們對總統說，我們將向你們開放市場，我是說真正的開放，意思是我們將接受美國汽車，想想日本人是怎麼做的，他們說，我們將根據美國標準接受美國汽車。

So you don't have to make a different car.

所以，你不需要製造不同的汽車。

You can take the car you make in Detroit, put it on a boat and send it.

你可以把在底特律生產的汽車裝到船上運走。

The Japanese basically accepted the fact that if you make the car in Detroit or anywhere in the US based on the US standards, just bring it and sell it in Japan without changing the requirements.

日本人基本上接受了這樣一個事實，即如果你在底特律或美國任何地方根據美國標準制造汽車，只需將其帶到日本銷售，而無需改變要求。

You see, every country has requirements, especially for safety and emission.

要知道，每個國家都有自己的要求，尤其是在安全和排放方面。

So Japan has much stricter safety requirements than the United States.

是以，日本的安全要求比美國嚴格得多。

And if Ford wants to sell their cars in Japan, then they have to meet those standards before they can sell them.

如果福特想在日本銷售汽車，就必須在銷售前達到這些標準。

Now they have agreed that they will accept US safety standards.

現在，他們同意接受美國的安全標準。

Now the question is that, will the Japanese people buy that less safer car because the United States is simply selling it in the US?

現在的問題是，日本人會因為美國只是在美國銷售這種安全性較低的汽車而購買嗎？

If we have a Toyota that is much safer than Ford, why would people even buy Ford?

如果我們的豐田汽車比福特汽車安全得多，人們為什麼還要買福特汽車呢？

Maybe there is going to be some demand, but that demand is going to be extremely minimal.

也許會有一些需求，但這種需求將是極其微小的。

So you can't basically just build cars the way you build them in one country and ship them to another country expecting that it will be sold.

是以，你基本上不能按照在一個國家制造汽車的方式，把汽車運到另一個國家，然後指望它能賣出去。

And if people in Japan are not going to buy it, what's the point of removing that safety standard if Japanese people simply believe that this car is going to be less safer.

如果日本人不打算購買這款車，如果日本人只是認為這款車的安全性會降低，那麼取消安全標準又有什麼意義呢？

The second problem is that you have to build a different car for every region.

第二個問題是，你必須為每個地區製造不同的汽車。

If you are building a car for a desert type of a country, think of Saudi Arabia where it's always sunny and it's like literally always really really warm.

如果你要為沙漠國家制造汽車，不妨想想沙特阿拉伯，那裡總是陽光明媚，而且真的非常非常暖和。

And think of Canada where it's extremely cold and in a lot of places in Canada you have very harsh cold conditions.

再想想加拿大，那裡非常寒冷，在加拿大的很多地方都有非常嚴酷的寒冷條件。

Now you can't build one car for both of these countries.

現在，你不可能為這兩個國家都製造一輛汽車。

Because in one country you have to put emphasis on the fact that it's a very sunny country and you have to build really great air conditioning for them and maybe to build the car in such a way that it doesn't melt down under that super sunny weather.

因為在一個國家，你必須強調這是一個陽光非常充足的國家，你必須為他們建造非常好的空調，也許還必須以這樣一種方式建造汽車，使其在超級晴朗的天氣下不會融化。

But when you are building a car for Canada, then you don't have to care much about the air conditioning, but you have to care about that it's going to withstand those very cold harsh weathers.

但是，當你為加拿大製造汽車時，你不必太在意空調，但你必須在意它能否抵禦嚴寒的天氣。

So you can't be building one car in Detroit and ship it to the rest of the world and expecting that people in those countries are going to buy that car.

是以，你不能在底特律製造一輛汽車，然後運往世界其他地方，並指望那些國家的人會買這輛車。

You always have to keep in mind the differences in the regions.

您必須始終牢記地區之間的差異。

You might remove those requirements by the government and you can just bypass them.

政府可能會取消這些要求，你可以繞過它們。

But bypassing those requirements doesn't mean that the final consumer will buy it.

但繞過這些要求並不意味著最終消費者會購買。

The government put these requirements in order to make it possible for people to kind of or for the companies to build cars that are possible to drive in those weather conditions.

政府提出這些要求，是為了讓人們或公司能夠製造出可以在這種天氣條件下行駛的汽車。

Now you are simply removing them, you are just making it worse for the consumers.

現在你們只是簡單地刪除它們，這隻會讓消費者的處境更加糟糕。

The third thing that we have to consider is that there is going to be very low demand from Japan anyways.

我們必須考慮的第三點是，無論如何，日本的需求都會非常低。

If you go back to the 1990s you see that the GDP per capita in Japan was much higher than the United States.

如果你回到 20 世紀 90 年代，就會發現日本的人均 GDP 遠高於美國。

字幕列表影片播放

為什麼說特朗普的美日貿易協定是一場災難？ (Why Trump’s US-Japan trade deal is a DISASTER)

literally

extremely

strategy

basically