Name: "大多數人都不知道即將發生什麼" ("Most People Have No Idea What's About To Happen")
Uploaded: 2025-07-24T19:09:21.000Z
Duration: 11 min 19 s

Elon Musk has been roasting Donald Trump's big beautiful bill for the last few days and he is trying to convince every single Republican possible to vote against it.

伊隆-馬斯克（Elon Musk）這幾天一直在抨擊唐納德-特朗普（Donald Trump）的美麗大法案，他試圖說服每一位共和黨人投反對票。

情態副詞

Because if this big beautiful bill is going to pass the senate, it is going to add another 3 to 5 trillion dollars to the deficit that is already so huge that America in the long run cannot possibly sustain it.

因為如果這個漂亮的大法案在參議院獲得通過，就會在已經如此巨大的赤字基礎上再增加3到5萬億美元，從長遠來看，美國不可能承受得住。

反身代名詞

And America has some time in order to save itself.

美國還有一些時間來拯救自己。

But if you add another 3 to 5 trillion dollars, you are shortening that time and America is on the path when the entire budget is going to be allocated into paying off the interest.

但是，如果再增加 3 到 5 萬億美元，時間就會縮短，美國就會走上將全部預算用於償還利息的道路。

And this is not a joke, imagine you are working so hard, paying so much taxes, income tax, payroll tax, whatever tax, corporations paying taxes, and then all of that instead of paying you social security, building roads and bridges, will be allocated into paying off the interest.

這不是一個玩笑，試想一下，你辛辛苦苦工作，繳納了那麼多稅，所得稅、工資稅、其他稅，公司繳納的稅，然後所有這些都將被用來償還利息，而不是支付你的社會保障、修建道路和橋樑。

This is one of the recent posts by Elon Musk, that America's debt is unsustainable.

這是埃隆-馬斯克最近發表的文章之一，他認為美國的債務是不可持續的。

And if you are wondering if it's true, yes, it's absolutely true. 50 or 70 years ago, America did not have as much debt as it is today.

如果你想知道這是不是真的，是的，這絕對是真的。50 年或 70 年前，美國的債務還沒有今天這麼多。

And since then, it has been a roller coaster.

從那時起，我的生活就像坐雲霄飛車一樣。

In fact, if you even compare debt to GDP ratio today and to world war 2, which was literally the greatest war in human history, today America has far more debt to GDP ratio than even world war 2.

事實上，如果將今天的債務與國內生產總值（GDP）之比與第二次世界大戰（那簡直是人類歷史上最偉大的戰爭）相比，今天美國的債務與GDP之比甚至遠遠超過了第二次世界大戰。

He also shared a post that it doesn't matter whether the president was a democrat or republican, the debt was actually growing.

他還分享了一篇帖子，稱不管總統是民主黨還是共和黨，債務實際上都在增長。

And don't be fooled by this 31.5 trillion dollars.

不要被這 31.5 萬億美元所迷惑。

At the time of me recording this video, it's over 37 trillion dollars.

在我錄製這段視頻時，它已超過 37 萬億美元。

In fact, I made a video explaining the entire debt crisis in a very detailed video that is almost an hour long.

事實上，我製作了一個近一個小時的視頻，非常詳細地解釋了整個債務危機。

And at that time, the debt was 35 trillion dollars.

And since then, which was around almost a year ago, an extra 2 trillion dollars was added.

從那時起，也就是大約一年前，又增加了 2 萬億美元。

And I explained in that video that if this trajectory is going to continue, that was before Trump was elected as the next president of the United States.

我在視頻中解釋說，如果這一軌跡繼續下去，那是在特朗普當選下一任美國總統之前。

That if the United States will continue on this trajectory, it has not much time in order to save it.

如果美國繼續沿著這條軌跡走下去，拯救它的時間就不多了。

But now with this big beautiful bill, another 3 to 5 trillion dollars will be added to the deficit, which is going to worsen the crisis.

但現在有了這個漂亮的大法案，赤字將再增加 3 到 5 萬億美元，這將使危機進一步惡化。

And if you're wondering, why did all these presidents suddenly increase the debt ceiling or increase the debt?

如果你想知道，為什麼這些總統會突然提高債務上限或增加債務？

When Biden was president, he took the presidency from Trump when the United States was going through COVID and you had lower interest rates and injecting trillions of dollars by the Fed to save the economy from the crisis.

拜登擔任總統時，他從特朗普手中接過了總統職位，當時美國正經歷COVID，你可以降低利率，美聯儲注入數萬億美元來挽救經濟危機。

When Donald Trump became the president, he passed the Trump's tax cuts and he had to borrow as much money as possible before those tax cuts will be paying off and will grow the economy.

唐納德-特朗普就任總統後，通過了特朗普的減稅政策，他必須儘可能多地借錢，這些減稅政策才會有回報，才會促進經濟增長。

Because if you are cutting taxes, you still need some kind of an income to pay off social security, to pay off defense that is almost like a trillion dollars or more than that.

因為如果你要減稅，你仍然需要某種收入來償還社會保險，償還幾乎是一萬億美元或更多的國防費用。

And then you have a long list of other expenses as the government to do.

作為政府，你還有一長串的其他開支要做。

When Barack Obama was president, he inherited the 2008 recession and he had no other option but to confirm with the Federal Reserve to inject the economy with trillions of dollars again to save the economy from the 2008 financial crisis.

當巴拉克-奧巴馬擔任總統時，他繼承了 2008 年的經濟衰退，他別無選擇，只能與美聯儲確認再次向經濟注入數萬億美元，以拯救 2008 年金融危機中的經濟。

Imagine if that didn't happen, today, maybe China would be a much larger economy than the United States.

試想一下，如果沒有這一切，今天的中國也許會成為一個比美國大得多的經濟體。

And that's something that the United States cannot afford like China to do.

這是美國無法像中國一樣承受的。

The only president that did not let debt to grow that much was Bill Clinton.

唯一沒有讓債務增長那麼多的總統是比爾-克林頓。

In fact, he was probably the only president in recent American history that balanced the budget before he took office.

事實上，他可能是美國近代史上唯一一位在上任前就實現預算平衡的總統。

Everyone else, by the time they got out of the office, the deficit was tremendous.

其他人從辦公室出來時，赤字已經很大了。

Even if you take Ronald Reagan, who passed one of the largest tax cuts in American history, he thought that, I am going to cut taxes, the economy is going to grow faster and we are going to generate much more income from a bigger economy so that will benefit everyone else.

即使以羅納德-里根為例，他通過了美國曆史上規模最大的減稅政策之一，他認為，我要減稅，經濟就會增長得更快，我們就會從更大的經濟中獲得更多的收入，從而使其他人受益。

That's a really great idea in theory, but when you suddenly cut so much taxes, the government's budget is going to dry up and you will have to get that money from somewhere and that somewhere is always borrowing it from investors.

從理論上講，這確實是個好主意，但當你突然減稅這麼多時，政府的預算就會枯竭，你就必須從某個地方獲得資金，而這個地方總是向投資者借錢。

This chart perfectly illustrates the root cause of the problem.

這張圖表完美地說明了問題的根源。

These are the numbers for 2023, because in 2025, the numbers are going to be for revenue or for spending, in this case, 7 trillion dollars, while revenue is around 5 trillion dollars, leaving the government with almost like 2.1 trillion dollars in real deficit.

這些是2023年的數字，因為2025年的數字將是收入或支出的數字，在這種情況下，收入為7萬億美元，而支出約為5萬億美元，政府的實際赤字幾乎為2.1萬億美元。

In 2023, the deficit was 1.8 trillion dollars.

The difference isn't huge between 2023 and 2025, but we are still talking about a 2 trillion dollar deficit and that is without the big beautiful bill.

2023 年和 2025 年之間的差距並不大，但我們仍將面臨 2 萬億美元的赤字，而且這還是在沒有美麗大法案的情況下。

And now stop for a moment and ask yourself a question, we are running a 2 trillion dollar deficit, what is going to happen if we add another 5 trillion dollars, do you see where the problem is?

現在停一停，問自己一個問題，我們現在有 2 萬億美元的赤字，如果再增加 5 萬億美元會怎樣，你明白問題出在哪裡了嗎？

The entire point, when Trump ran on his campaign, one of the things that he talked a lot about was that the huge debt problem that the US has, but you don't solve the debt problem by getting more debt, you don't solve the debt problem by cutting taxes and increasing spending.

特朗普在競選時經常談到的一點是，美國面臨著巨大的債務問題，但你不能通過增加債務來解決債務問題，也不能通過減稅和增加支出來解決債務問題。

I'm not saying that you should raise taxes, but at least you shouldn't actually raise spending in the first place, so that you kind of balance the budget over time.

我並不是說你應該提高稅收，但至少你不應該在一開始就提高開支，這樣你就能在一段時間內平衡預算。

In fact, Elon even called it that America is headed into a real debt slavery.

事實上，埃隆甚至稱美國正在走向真正的債務奴役。

If America is going to hit a position where all taxes will be paid into the interest payments, that's the real slavery.

如果美國的所有稅收都將用於支付利息，那才是真正的奴役。

Imagine working so hard, imagine that the government will have no other option, because if you are going to default on that debt, what is the consequences of that?

試想一下，你如此努力地工作，試想一下，政府將別無選擇，因為如果你要拖欠債務，後果會怎樣？

The dollar will stop being the global reserve currency, and America will no longer be a superpower that it is today.

美元將不再是全球儲備貨幣，美國也不再是今天的超級大國。

But if you decide to stay on that currency, it means that you have to continue paying off the interest on all the debt that you had borrowed.

但是，如果您決定繼續使用這種貨幣，就意味著您必須繼續償還所借債務的利息。

Right now, it's about like 1 or 1.1 trillion dollars, which is even larger than the defense budget.

現在，它大約有 1 或 1.1 萬億美元，比國防預算還要大。

And that is probably the most mind-blowing thing that I cannot possibly even comprehend right now.

這可能是我現在都無法理解的最令人震撼的事情。

You are, you have the largest military in the world.

你們擁有世界上最龐大的軍隊。

You are controlling the world because you have a military base in every single corner of the world.

你們控制著世界，因為你們在世界的每一個角落都有軍事基地。

And nobody, literally nobody can compete with you.

沒有人，真的沒有人可以和你競爭。

Like whatever you hear about other militaries, just don't take them seriously.

就像你聽到的關於其他軍隊的任何消息一樣，別把它們當真。

Nobody can compete with the United States, because nobody spends as much as the United States.

沒有人可以與美國競爭，因為沒有人像美國那樣花錢如流水。

However, suddenly the interest payments on your debt are larger than the payments on the defense budget, which is insane.

然而，突然間，你的債務利息支出超過了國防預算的支出，這太瘋狂了。

And because the debt is growing so fast right now, America will come to the position where it won't be able to afford the military.

由於目前債務增長如此之快，美國將陷入無力負擔軍隊的境地。

Because instead of paying for the military, you will have to pay the interest on the debt, since the debt is so huge.

因為你們不僅要為軍隊買單，還要為債務支付利息，因為債務是如此龐大。

America is also going bankrupt extremely quickly.

Interest payments on the national debt just exceeded the defense department budget.

國債的利息支出剛剛超過了國防部的預算。

And this is the projection before the Trump's big beautiful bill, that by 2025, the debt to GDP ratio will hit around 175%.

這是在特朗普提出美麗大法案之前的預測，到 2025 年，債務與 GDP 的比率將達到 175% 左右。

And that means that around half of the entire budget of the government will go into paying off the interest.

這意味著政府全部預算的一半左右將用於支付利息。

But if we are going to pass the big beautiful bill, suddenly this number is going to skyrocket.

但是，如果我們要通過這個漂亮的大法案，這個數字就會突然飆升。

And it's not going to happen in 2055, but rather it most likely going to happen somewhere between 2035 and 2045, which limits the time that America has to solve its debt problem.

這不會發生在2055年，而很可能發生在2035年到2045年之間，這就限制了美國解決債務問題的時間。

It's very similar to a person who starts taking a bunch of debts, a bunch of credit cards and then maxed them out.

這就好比一個人欠了一堆債，辦了一堆信用卡，然後把它們都刷爆了。

And then even if that person is making a million dollars, but the interest payments on all of his credit cards are a million dollars, that guy is very poor.

然後，即使這個人賺了一百萬美元，但他所有信用卡的利息支出是一百萬美元，這個人也是非常窮的。

That guy is a dead slave because he cannot escape those debts.

那個人是個死奴隸，因為他無法逃避這些債務。

You have so much debt that the interest payments on your debts are literally $1 million.

您欠債太多，債務利息支出高達 100 萬美元。

If you look at this guy, you would think, oh, this is such a rich guy, he has a million dollars.

如果你看到這個人，你會覺得，哦，這真是個有錢人，他有一百萬美元。

But then his interest payments are also a million dollars a year.

不過，他每年的利息支出也有一百萬美元。

Well, if you think about it, he is literally much more poorer than a homeless person.

仔細想想，他簡直比無家可歸的人還要窮。

In fact, he probably can't even sleep because he is thinking about how to pay off his debts since he can't do anything without paying off those debts.

事實上，他可能連覺都睡不著，因為他在考慮如何還債，因為不還債他什麼都做不了。

Well, the homeless guy is probably sleeping like a baby since he does not have that much of a debt.

流浪漢可能睡得像個嬰兒，因為他沒有那麼多債務。

The real question is that, didn't America put policies in place in order to prevent such a situation?

真正的問題是，美國難道沒有制定政策來防止這種情況發生嗎？

Pretty much every country in the world has a debt ceiling so that if we reach a certain level of debt, then we have to do something about it.

世界上幾乎每個國家都有債務上限，如果我們的債務達到一定水準，我們就必須採取措施。

We have to raise taxes, do whatever possible in order to avoid accruing more debt since there is a ceiling for that debt.

我們必須提高稅收，盡一切可能避免累積更多債務，因為債務是有上限的。

However, over the last 60 to 70 years, both Democrats and Republicans have been voting to increase that debt ceiling as if that debt ceiling doesn't exist.

然而，在過去的六七十年裡，民主黨和共和黨都一直在投票提高債務上限，就好像債務上限根本不存在一樣。

What is the purpose of debt ceiling, like Elon Musk calls it, if it's being raised every single time?

如果每次都提高債務上限，那麼埃隆-馬斯克所說的債務上限又有什麼用呢？

The point of it was to put in place in order to prevent the situation that the United States have found itself today.

這樣做的目的是為了防止美國出現今天的局面。

And now with this big beautiful bill, they will worsen the situation.

現在有了這個漂亮的大法案，他們將使情況更加惡化。

Lower taxes, more money heading into the economy, but that's very dangerous because sooner or later, you will have to pay for that.

降低稅收，更多的資金流入經濟，但這是非常危險的，因為你遲早要為此付出代價。

And because the debt is so huge, it is going to be way sooner than you can possibly think.

由於債務數額巨大，這將比你想象的要快得多。

Now I don't know whether this big beautiful bill is going to get passed.

現在，我不知道這個美麗的大法案能否獲得通過。

America is already on a very dangerous path.

美國已經走上了一條非常危險的道路。

So it's a matter of time before that debt bomb is going to explode and most of the taxes will be allocated into paying off the interest on that debt.

是以，債務炸彈遲早會爆炸，大部分稅收將用於償還債務利息。

And that social security that you think that you're going to receive when you retire is not going to be there.

而你以為退休後就能領取的社會保障也將不復存在。

And that's why it's very important for every single person to think about his own retirement, his own financial freedom, his own financial independence, is not to rely that you will be paying off payroll tax your entire life, and suddenly you will retire with some kind of income.

這就是為什麼每個人都要考慮自己的退休、自己的財務自由、自己的財務獨立，而不是依賴於你一輩子都在繳納工資稅，突然退休後就有了某種收入，這一點非常重要。

Because when that time is going to come, your payroll taxes will be allocated into paying off the interest on the debt, since that is far more important than your social security.

因為到那個時候，你的工資稅將被用於償還債務利息，因為這比你的社會保障重要得多。

Which is why if you haven't started investing yet, it is time to take investing seriously and build a strategy that will get you to that financial freedom, that will get you to a position where you're not going to be relying on social security, where you will not be relying on the government to take care of you when you retire.

這就是為什麼如果你還沒有開始投資，那麼現在就應該認真對待投資，並制定一個能讓你實現財務自由的策略，讓你在退休後不再依賴社會保障，不再依賴政府的照顧。

In fact, if you even start investing with as little as $200 every single month, you can still build some kind of a cash cushion or an investing portfolio that will provide you with some kind of a financial freedom by the time you retire.

事實上，如果你從每個月 200 美元開始投資，你仍然可以建立起一定的現金墊或投資組合，在你退休時為你提供一定的財務自由。

And if you don't know where to start and you need a very proven investing strategy, make sure to check the first link in the description of this video.

如果你不知道從何入手，需要一個非常行之有效的投資策略，請務必查看本視頻描述中的第一個鏈接。

That's it for today guys, thanks for watching and I will see you in the next one.

今天就到這裡，謝謝大家收看，我們下期再見。