Name: 我分析了 "美麗大法案"，它比你想象的要糟糕得多 (I Analyzed The Big Beautiful Bill,, Its Far Worse Than You Expect)
Uploaded: 2025-07-22T18:46:05.000Z
Duration: 12 min 18 s

過去簡單式

I have analyzed Trump's big beautiful bill and found something very strange.

我分析了特朗普的美麗大法案，發現了一些非常奇怪的東西。

現在進行式

Trump's big beautiful bill is going to impact everybody.

特朗普的美麗大法案將影響所有人。

On the one side, there are a lot of great things about this bill, because it reduces taxes pretty much for everybody.

一方面，這項法案有很多優點，因為它幾乎為每個人都減少了稅收。

It provides a lot of deductions, there is no taxes on tips and overtime, and a lot of people will be able to lower down their taxable income, which means that they will pay a lot of less taxes.

它提供了很多扣除項目，小費和加班費不需要繳稅，很多人的應納稅收入也會降低，這意味著他們會少繳很多稅。

On the other side, according to this report, it's supposed to fix the United States debt problem.

另一方面，根據這份報告，它應該能解決美國的債務問題。

Now, we talk a lot about the debt problem on this channel.

現在，我們在這個頻道上經常談論債務問題。

However, how are you supposed to solve the debt problem when you are cutting your sources of revenue on one side, on the other side, you increase your spending.

然而，一邊是削減收入來源，一邊是增加支出，你怎麼能解決債務問題呢？

And it says that based on this bill, the deficit to GDP ratio is supposed to go down from 6.2% to as low as 3.2%. 6.5% deficit rate is unsustainable for any country, even if you have the global reserve currency, so it must be brought down to 3%. 3% is sustainable for decades to come.

它說，根據這項法案，赤字與國內生產總值的比率應從 6.2%降至 3.2%。6.5%的赤字率對任何國家來說都是不可持續的，即使你擁有全球儲備貨幣，是以必須將其降至3%。3% 在未來幾十年都是可持續的。

But how is it possible when you are cutting your sources of revenue?

但是，在削減收入來源的情況下，這怎麼可能呢？

If you read the entire full report, then according to the white house, if you sum it up, the GDP in the short run is going to grow by 4.2% up to 5.2% within the next 4 years.

如果你閱讀了報告全文，那麼根據白宮的說法，如果你總結一下，短期內國內生產總值（GDP）將增長 4.2%，未來 4 年內將增長 5.2%。

So the entire trump presidency should deliver the united states a GDP growth of almost 5% every year, and that's how it's supposed to pay for it.

是以，整個特朗普總統任期內，美國每年的 GDP 增長率應接近 5%，而這就是它應該支付的費用。

And then it's going to slow down after that within the next 6 years to around 3% if you round it out.

之後的 6 年內，增長率將放緩至 3%左右。

The US economy is too developed to grow by these kind of numbers.

美國經濟太發達，不可能以這樣的數字增長。

But based on their analysis, lowering down taxes is going to have a huge impact on the US economy.

但根據他們的分析，降低稅率將對美國經濟產生巨大影響。

But it doesn't matter how much you lower down taxes, at the end of the day, the US is simply too rich to achieve those kind of levels.

但不管你如何降低稅收，歸根結底，美國還是太富裕了，無法達到這樣的水準。

When you think about China, China can grow by 5% annually.

就中國而言，中國的年增長率可達 5%。

Because even though that China is the world's largest economy, if you take GDP per capita, then China is a still developing country, which is far away from the US.

因為儘管中國是世界上最大的經濟體，但如果按人均國內生產總值計算，中國仍然是一個開發中國家，與美國相差甚遠。

If you have a country where you have a desert and you don't even have roads, just by building roads in your country and bridges, you are going to inflate your GDP by 20% or 30% annually.

如果一個國家只有一片沙漠，甚至沒有公路，那麼只要在國內修建公路和橋樑，每年就能使國內生產總值增長 20% 或 30%。

However, when you have built up your economy and you have wealthy citizens, moving from now onwards, growing the economy becomes significantly much more difficult because by building roads and railways and bridges, the GDP is not going to grow that much.

然而，當你已經建立起自己的經濟，擁有了富裕的公民，從現在開始，經濟增長就會變得明顯困難得多，因為通過修建公路、鐵路和橋樑，國內生產總值是不會增長那麼多的。

Which means that you can only grow if you invest in research and development and you build some of the best technologies in the world.

這意味著，只有在研發方面進行投資，並建立起世界上最好的技術，才能實現增長。

And that's why if you compare the US economy and the Chinese economy, you instantly see that China grows much faster.

這就是為什麼如果你比較美國經濟和中國經濟，你會立刻發現中國經濟增長得更快。

That's not because China is growing faster than the US, but because China is in a completely different economic stage.

這並不是因為中國的增長速度比美國快，而是因為中國所處的經濟階段完全不同。

Just look at the Chinese economy, 15 years ago, their GDP used to grow by 15%.

看看中國的經濟，15 年前，他們的國內生產總值曾增長 15%。

Because 15 years ago, China was a very poor country.

因為 15 年前，中國還是一個非常貧窮的國家。

Today, they build their basic infrastructures, they build their roads and bridges and most of the things and they started developing technologically.

如今，他們建造了基本的基礎設施，修建了道路、橋樑和大部分設施，並開始發展技術。

現在，他們的國內生產總值僅增長 5%。

And the only way they can do that is by massively borrowing money and investing in these industries.

而他們能做到這一點的唯一途徑就是大量借錢並投資於這些行業。

So the question is that, at what GDP stage the United States is?

那麼問題來了，美國的 GDP 處於什麼階段？

或者說，美國正處於哪個經濟階段？

There was a period in the US history where the GDP has grown by 4%, even 5%.

在美國曆史上，曾有一段時間國內生產總值增長了 4%，甚至 5%。

但那是上世紀六七十年代的事了。

And these were completely different periods in the history of the United States.

而這些都是美國曆史上完全不同的時期。

Back in the days, Europe just was recovering from world war 2, the entire that part of the world was communism and they were against capitalism, China was trying to feed its population and get it out of poverty.

當年，歐洲剛剛從第二次世界大戰中恢復過來，整個世界都是共產主義，他們反對資本主義，而中國正在努力養活自己的人口，讓他們擺脫貧困。

So United States was pretty much the only country that was at the center of the world.

是以，美國幾乎是唯一處於世界中心的國家。

Today we have a completely different dynamics.

今天，我們有了完全不同的動力。

We have a huge challenge from China, the rest of the world is growing tremendously.

我們面臨著來自中國的巨大挑戰，而世界其他地區也在飛速發展。

So achieving a 5% GDP rate for the United States is extremely difficult.

是以，美國實現 5%的 GDP 率是極其困難的。

In fact, the US is at the top of the game.

事實上，美國在這方面處於領先地位。

If you look at countries, at GDP per capita, United States is the only large country in the top 10.

如果從各國的人均國內生產總值來看，美國是前十名中唯一的大國。

The list is filled with countries such as Luxembourg that doesn't have much of a population.

名單上有很多國家，如盧森堡，人口並不多。

The entire population of Luxembourg is probably less than half a million people.

盧森堡全國人口可能不到 50 萬。

And when you have a lot of resources and very few people, it's very easy to have that kind of a huge GDP per capita.

當你擁有大量資源而人口很少時，就很容易擁有如此巨大的人均 GDP。

Then you have Ireland, it's a tax haven for a lot of multi-trillion dollar corporations such as Apple.

還有愛爾蘭，它是許多價值數萬億美元的公司（如蘋果公司）的避稅天堂。

Then you have Switzerland, Singapore, Norway, and so on and so forth.

還有瑞士、新加坡、挪威等等。

And countries such as Qatar which is the wealthiest country when it comes to gas resources, I mean natural gas.

而像卡達這樣的國家，在天然氣資源（我指的是天然氣）方面是最富有的國家。

And then you have a tiny population of 1 million people which is why they are at the top of  The only other country that is huge, not as huge as the United States, but still huge is Germany and the UK.

唯一一個人口眾多的國家是德國和英國，雖然沒有美國那麼多，但也很龐大。

Which means that the United States is so developed that growing for it by 3% annually is pretty much unrealistic.

這意味著美國已經非常發達，每年增長 3% 幾乎是不現實的。

The only pity that happened was back in the 1990s, but it was the internet revolution.

唯一的遺憾發生在上世紀 90 年代，但那是互聯網革命。

Internet changed the lives of the entire world.

互聯網改變了整個世界的生活。

You can literally divide the world pre-internet era and after internet era.

你簡直可以把世界劃分為前互聯網時代和後互聯網時代。

Yes, internet existed before 1990s, but it was literally the 1990s that made internet possible and accessible for the average people.

是的，互聯網在 20 世紀 90 年代之前就已經存在，但正是 20 世紀 90 年代使互聯網成為可能，併為普通人所用。

This was the period where companies started massively investing in internet and companies such as Amazon came out.

這一時期，企業開始大規模投資互聯網，亞馬遜等公司應運而生。

And that growth led the US GDP to grow by about 4% at its peak.

這種增長使美國的 GDP 在高峰期增長了約 4%。

But this massive growth also led to the dot-com bubble and the entire economy turned into a bubble and collapsed after that.

但這種大規模增長也導致了網絡保麗龍，整個經濟變成了保麗龍，並在保麗龍之後崩潰。

Since then, the US didn't see the age of GDP growth of over 4%.

從那時起，美國就再也沒有出現過 GDP 增長超過 4% 的時代。

Yes, the GDP after that grew by almost 4%, but it was during the peak of the investing in real estate, when wall street came out with mortgage-backed securities.

是的，之後的 GDP 增長了近 4%，但那是在投資房地產的高峰期，華爾街推出了抵押貸款支持證券。

After that, the US GDP has been growing by 1.5% up to 2.5%.

此後，美國國內生產總值一直以 1.5%至 2.5%的速度增長。

And these are normal GDP growth for the United States.

而這些都是美國國內生產總值的正常增長。

The only real difference that you see is the covid recovery era.

你能看到的唯一真正區別就是科維德復甦時代。

Every time an economy goes into a crisis and then it recovers, you will see a huge GDP growth.

每次經濟陷入危機，然後復甦，你都會看到國內生產總值的大幅增長。

But that's not the real GDP growth, it's simply a recovery from the previous years.

但這並不是國內生產總值的實際增長，而僅僅是前幾年的恢復。

So by understanding at which stage the United States is right now, it's impossible to imagine the US economy to grow by a GDP that is much more than 3 or 4% annually, leave alone 5%.

是以，只要瞭解美國目前所處的階段，就不可能想象美國經濟的 GDP 年增長率會超過 3% 或 4%，更不用說 5%了。

If the US GDP grows by 5% within the next 4 years, that means that by the time Trump is out of office, the total US GDP will cross 35 trillion dollars, which is going to be the largest economic growth in recent American history.

如果美國 GDP 在未來 4 年內增長 5%，這意味著到特朗普卸任時，美國 GDP 總量將超過 35 萬億美元，這將是美國近代史上最大的經濟增長。

But if that's not going to happen, then another 5 trillion dollars will be added to the deficit.

但如果不這樣做，赤字就會再增加 5 萬億美元。

The national debt is already growing tremendously and now stands at around 100% if you do not count in the intergovernmental debt.

國債已經在大幅增長，如果不算政府間債務，現在的國債約為 100%。

Without that and the extra 5 trillion dollars in deficit, it can easily grow to 120%.

如果沒有這一點，再加上額外的 5 萬億美元赤字，它很容易增長到 120%。

And if you add to that the intergovernmental debt, suddenly you find the United States at a 140% debt to GDP ratio.

如果再加上政府間債務，你會突然發現美國的債務與國內生產總值的比率高達 140%。

I personally have zero faith that a 5% growth rate will be achieved, especially with so much chaos that is happening and so much tariffs being imposed on other countries.

我個人對實現 5%增長率的信心為零，尤其是在發生了這麼多混亂、對其他國家徵收了這麼多關稅的情況下。

One of the fundamental reasons that the economy grows is that it trades with the rest of the world.

經濟增長的根本原因之一是與世界其他地區的貿易往來。

Now you have put all of these barriers and at the same time you expect a 5% GDP growth is something unrealistic.

現在你設置了所有這些障礙，同時又期望國內生產總值增長 5%，這是不現實的。

There is although one way to do that, is when you lower down interest rates to 1% or 2%, borrowing money suddenly becomes so cheap and the GDP will be inflated to by 5% growth annually.

但有一種方法可以做到這一點，那就是當你把利率降到 1%或 2%時，借錢就會突然變得非常便宜，GDP 就會膨脹到每年增長 5%。

You have to understand the difference between real GDP growth and a GDP growth.

你必須明白實際 GDP 增長和 GDP 增長之間的區別。

Because if you lower down interest rates and the cost of borrowing lowers down and people borrow money and start spending, yes, the GDP in numbers have grown dramatically, but now those dollars can buy a lot less things.

因為如果你降低利率，借貸成本降低，人們借到錢並開始消費，是的，國內生產總值在數字上有了大幅增長，但現在這些錢能買的東西少了很多。

The second biggest problem with the big beautiful bill is the energy part.

美麗大賬單的第二大問題是能源部分。

There is a lot of changes that is going to be of how energy will be consumed in the United States.

美國的能源消耗方式將發生很大變化。

In the 20th century, the most important engine of energy was oil.

20 世紀，最重要的能源引擎是石油。

它推動了整個全球經濟的發展。

And by controlling oil in the 20th century, it allowed the United States to dominate the world.

通過在 20 世紀控制石油，美國得以主宰世界。

That's where the concept of petrodollar came in.

United States signed very important trade agreements with those countries that produce oil mostly so that they only sell their oil in US dollars.

美國與那些主要生產石油的國家簽署了非常重要的貿易協定，使這些國家只能以美元出售石油。

That is one of the primary reasons that allowed the United States to have the global reserve currency.

這也是美國能夠成為全球儲備貨幣的主要原因之一。

And if you are buying oil, you need dollars.

如果要購買石油，就需要美元。

And in order to get dollars, you have to trade with the United States.

而要想獲得美元，就必須與美國進行貿易。

That strengthened the US position as the global reserve currency.

這加強了美國作為全球儲備貨幣的地位。

But oil is not going to be the engine of the 21st century.

但石油不會成為 21 世紀的引擎。

But if you want to focus on AI, you need an infinite source of energy.

但如果你想專注於人工智能，你就需要無限的能量。

And that is either wind, solar, or other sources of clean energy.

這就是風能、太陽能或其他清潔能源。

And the United States perfectly understands that.

China produces 70-80% of all the batteries in the world.

中國生產了世界上 70-80% 的電池。