Name: 特朗普始料未及：美國將從此一蹶不振 (Trump Didn’t See This Coming: America will never recover from this)
Uploaded: 2025-07-20T19:24:47.000Z
Duration: 13 min 59 s

形容詞最高級

This is one of the craziest things I have ever seen in my entire life.

這是我這輩子見過的最瘋狂的事情之一。

to 不定詞

This has the potential to destroy the financial system that the United States helped to build over the last 70 to 80 years.

這有可能摧毀美國在過去七八十年間幫助建立起來的金融體系。

進階程度副詞句型

The consequences of these actions are so severe that it puts at risk the United States dollar as the global reserve currency.

這些行動的後果如此嚴重，以至於美元作為全球儲備貨幣的地位岌岌可危。

This is the letter that Donald Trump has sent to the president of Brazil, that starting on August the 1st, Brazil will be faced with a 50% tariff on all the exports that will be exported to the United States.

這是唐納德-特朗普寫給巴西總統的一封信，信中說，從 8 月 1 日起，巴西將對出口到美國的所有產品徵收 50% 的關稅。

And these kind of letters have been sent to every single country.

這些信件已經寄往每一個國家。

The problem is that the United States over the last 80 years have been trying to actively sign free trade agreements with every single country possible.

問題在於，在過去的 80 年裡，美國一直在努力積極地與每一個可能的國家簽署自由貿易協定。

Because these trade agreements made the United States dollar the global reserve currency.

因為這些貿易協定使美元成為全球儲備貨幣。

To understand how important these trade agreements are, we first have to understand what is a free trade agreement or what is a trade agreement at all.

要了解這些貿易協定有多重要，我們首先要了解什麼是自由貿易協定，或者什麼是貿易協定。

Let's say we have two countries, the United States on one side and Brazil on the other side.

假設有兩個國家，一邊是美國，另一邊是巴西。

United States is the wealthiest country in the world with a GDP per capita of 90 thousand dollars and a total GDP of 30 trillion dollars.

美國是世界上最富有的國家，人均 GDP 達 9 萬美元，GDP 總量達 30 萬億美元。

On the other side, Brazil is a middle-income country with a 10 thousand dollar GDP.

另一方面，巴西是一箇中等收入國家，國內生產總值為 1 萬美元。

So these two countries are at two different economic stages and they have completely two different interests.

是以，這兩個國家處於兩個不同的經濟階段，有著完全不同的利益。

United States wants to expand its influence and wants to make Brazil dependent on the US dollar.

美國想擴大其影響力，並想讓巴西依賴美元。

Because the primary goal of the United States to trade with the rest of the world is to make sure that the dollar keeps paying the global reserve currency.

因為美國與世界其他國家進行貿易的首要目標是確保美元繼續支付全球儲備貨幣。

The United States also wants the US tech companies to dominate the world.

美國還希望美國科技公司主宰世界。

You want Apple, Nvidia, Netflix, Google, Amazon to be the global leaders in innovation and any piece of technology that comes up.

你希望蘋果、Nvidia、Netflix、谷歌、亞馬遜成為全球創新和任何技術領域的領導者。

If they will dominate the world, they will be using the dollars because they are US companies and the United States will be at the top.

如果它們將主宰世界，它們將使用美元，因為它們是美國公司，美國將處於頂端。

However, these are not the goals that Brazil wants to achieve.

然而，這些並不是巴西想要實現的目標。

Brazil is interested in modernizing its economy and at least living or achieving half of what the United States has achieved.

巴西希望實現經濟現代化，至少能達到美國的一半。

Brazil also wants to sell its natural resources and manufacture goods if they can and send them to the United States.

巴西還希望出售其自然資源，並在可能的情況下製造商品，然後運往美國。

Because Brazil does not manufacture advanced GPUs from Nvidia.

因為巴西並不生產 Nvidia 先進的 GPU。

Brazil does not have an Apple that produces world's best smartphones.

巴西沒有生產世界上最好智能手機的蘋果公司。

If you look at the average Brazilian, you will find out that they use Google, they use Netflix, they use Apple and they pretty much use everything that the United States produces.

如果你觀察一下普通巴西人，就會發現他們使用谷歌、Netflix、蘋果，他們幾乎使用美國生產的一切產品。

In fact, if you go to Brazil, undoubtedly you will find US banks that control a big chunk of the Brazilian financial sector.

事實上，如果你去巴西，毫無疑問會發現美國銀行控制著巴西金融業的很大一部分。

How many Brazilian banks have you seen in the United States?

你在美國見過多少家巴西銀行？

How many Brazilian tech companies have you seen in the United States?

你在美國見過多少家巴西科技公司？

Do you use a Brazilian bank to manage your money or invest in the Brazilian stock market?

您是通過巴西銀行理財還是投資巴西股票市場？

And that's why Brazil is also interested to buy US technology since the United States produces some of the best technologies.

這就是為什麼巴西也有興趣購買美國的技術，因為美國生產一些最好的技術。

And these two countries have two entirely different goals.

而這兩個國家有著完全不同的目標。

They have to sign a trade agreement that will align with their own interests.

他們必須簽署一份符合自身利益的貿易協定。

And that's why it often takes years to sign a trade agreement, anything between a year up to 5 years, since you have to come up with rules that will satisfy both parties.

這就是為什麼簽署一項貿易協定往往需要數年時間，從一年到五年不等，因為你必須制定出讓雙方都滿意的規則。

The United States has completely different interests.

Brazil has completely different interests.

Brazilians want to sell their manufactured and agricultural products.

巴西人希望銷售他們的製成品和農產品。

United States wants to keep the dollar as the global reserve currency.

美國希望保持美元作為全球儲備貨幣的地位。

But to sign, for example, a free trade agreement, it will take you years since you have to negotiate every single industry, every single sector.

但要簽署一項自由貿易協定，就需要花費數年時間，因為你必須就每一個行業、每一個部門進行談判。

The financial sector, the technology sector, agricultural sector, fashion sector.

金融部門、技術部門、農業部門、時尚部門。

And that's why if you look at any trade agreement that the United States has ever signed, you will find out that they are part of the deal that is back for the United States.

這就是為什麼如果你看一下美國簽署過的任何貿易協定，你會發現它們都是對美國有利的協定的一部分。

On the other side, they are part of the deal that is bad for Brazil, that is bad for Japan, that is bad for South Korea.

另一方面，它們也是對巴西、日本和韓國不利的交易的一部分。

And that's why you don't find Japanese technology sectors dominating the technology sector in the United States.

這就是為什麼日本的技術部門在美國的技術部門中並不占主導地位。

However, if you look at the cost, for example, you will find out that Japanese cars are flooding the US market.

但是，如果從成本角度考慮，就會發現日本汽車正在充斥美國市場。

So on one side, somebody is winning, on the other side, somebody is losing.

是以，一方有人贏，另一方有人輸。

But at the end of the day, if you sign a free trade agreement, the final consumer is going to win because prices will come down for the final consumer.

但歸根結底，如果簽署了自由貿易協定，最終消費者就會獲勝，因為最終消費者的價格會下降。

But because the United States is far more advanced than any other economy, and it's far bigger than any other country or most of the countries, it tried to sign all of these free trade agreements with everybody to ensure that the dollar is being used absolutely in every single corner of the world.

但是，由於美國比其他任何經濟體都要先進得多，也比其他任何國家或大多數國家都要大得多，它試圖與所有人簽署所有這些自由貿易協定，以確保美元在世界的每一個角落都得到絕對的使用。

The more a country trades with you, the more dollars they will use.

一個國家與你的貿易越多，他們使用的美元就越多。

The less they will trade with you, the less dollars they will use.

他們與你的交易越少，他們使用的美元也就越少。

So if you have two countries that are not in any way related to the United States, or are not interested in trading with the United States, for example, take China and Russia.

是以，如果有兩個國家與美國沒有任何關係，或者對與美國的貿易不感興趣，例如中國和俄羅斯。

They're not using the dollars because the United States kicked one of them out of the US financial system and has started a major trade war against the second country, which forced them to trade between one another in their own local currencies instead of the dollar.

它們不使用美元是因為美國將其中一個國家踢出了美國金融體系，並對第二個國家發動了大規模貿易戰，這迫使它們之間用本國貨幣而不是美元進行貿易。

Which is why, when the United States realized that we have the global reserve currency, let's sign free trade agreements with everybody, or at least partially trade agreements with every country possible to ensure that the dollar is being used in every single corner of the world.

這就是為什麼當美國意識到我們擁有全球儲備貨幣時，讓我們與所有人簽署自由貿易協定，或者至少與每個可能的國家簽署部分貿易協定，以確保美元在世界每個角落都被使用。

So the US signs USMCA trade agreement, United States, Canada, and Mexico free trade agreement.

是以，美國簽署了 USMCA 貿易協定，即美國、加拿大和墨西哥自由貿易協定。

它的前身是《北美自由貿易協定》。

But when Trump became the president the first time, he did not like it, he slightly changed it and renamed it to this new name.

但當特朗普第一次成為總統時，他並不喜歡這個名字，於是稍作改動，將其更名為這個新名字。

The United States has also signed a free trade agreement with Central American countries.

美國還與中美洲國家簽署了自由貿易協定。

It also has signed free trade agreements with over 20 countries, and also partial free trade agreements with multiple countries.

它還與 20 多個國家簽署了自由貿易協定，並與多個國家簽署了部分自由貿易協定。

You see, at the end of the day, not every single country is interested in a free trade agreement, because they have to get something out of this deal in order to make it attractive for them.

要知道，歸根結底，並不是每個國家都對自由貿易協定感興趣，因為它們必須從這一協定中有所收穫，才能使協定對它們具有吸引力。

But these are the three main objectives that the United States wants to achieve.

但這是美國希望實現的三大目標。

First of all, you want countries to use the dollar.

So if you sign a free trade agreement, there is more trade with the United States, the more dollar is being used.

是以，如果簽署了自由貿易協定，與美國的貿易就越多，使用的美元就越多。

If you use the dollar much more often, then you're more likely to invest in the United States bond market, in the United States stock market, in the housing market.

如果你更頻繁地使用美元，那麼你就更有可能投資於美國債券市場、美國股票市場和房地產市場。

More money will be invested in the United States, and the faster and bigger the US economy is going to grow, which will keep the United States, the largest economy in the world, and the dollar, the global reserve currency.

更多的資金將投資於美國，美國經濟將增長得更快、更大，這將使美國這個世界上最大的經濟體和美元這個全球儲備貨幣繼續保持下去。

The second objective is to ensure that the US tech sector dominates the world.

第二個目標是確保美國科技行業主導世界。

Over the last 70 to 80 years, the United States tech sector have been at the top of the game.

在過去的七八十年裡，美國的科技行業一直處於頂尖地位。

The more markets they will explore, the more money they will make, and the more money they will have to reinvest back into themselves.

他們開拓的市場越多，賺到的錢就越多，用於再投資的資金也就越多。

Currently, the largest tech companies are NVIDIA, Apple, Amazon, Google.

目前，最大的科技公司是英偉達、蘋果、亞馬遜和谷歌。

It doesn't matter which country you look at.

You will find out that besides China, most of the tech companies in the United States have dominated their markets.

你會發現，除了中國，美國的大多數科技公司都在各自的市場上佔據了主導地位。

Which allows them to make much more money in those markets, bring them back to the United States, reinvest in newer technology, and stay at the top of the game.

這使他們能夠在這些市場上賺到更多的錢，並將這些錢帶回美國，重新投資於更新的技術，並保持在遊戲的頂端。

And that is the strategy that the US have been pursuing.

而這正是美國一直奉行的戰略。

And that's one of the reasons it's important for the United States to sign these free trade agreements with every country possible.

這也是美國必須儘可能與所有國家簽署自由貿易協定的原因之一。

The third most important objective is the military dominance.

第三個最重要的目標是軍事優勢。

You see, I'm not an expert in military, and you should not take even my opinion when it comes to military, but let's look at the military from the financial perspective.

你看，我不是軍事專家，在軍事問題上你甚至不應該接受我的意見，但讓我們從財務角度來看看軍事。

If you build one single F-16, you will spend a lot of money on research and development and building the factory, so it will be extremely expensive to build it.

如果只造一架 F-16，在研發和建廠上就要花很多錢，所以造價會非常昂貴。

However, if you build a thousand F-16s, then the cost per unit goes down dramatically.

但是，如果建造一千架 F-16 戰鬥機，單位成本就會大幅下降。

Which is why if you want a military dominance, you want more countries to buy your own military.

這就是為什麼如果你想在軍事上佔據主導地位，你就需要更多的國家來購買你自己的軍隊。

Which is why part of the trade agreements is that those countries buy American weapons, so companies such as Boeing, Lockheed Martin, start making much more profits, which allow them to reinvest back in better technologies, which keeps the American military the most powerful military in the world.

這就是為什麼貿易協定的一部分內容是讓這些國家購買美國武器，這樣波音、洛克希德-馬丁等公司就能獲得更多利潤，從而能夠重新投資於更好的技術，使美國軍隊成為世界上最強大的軍隊。

These three objectives force the United States to sign as many free trade agreements as possible with as many countries as possible.

這三個目標迫使美國與儘可能多的國家簽署儘可能多的自由貿易協定。

And cancelling these free trade agreements, or simply starting changing them by imposing a 50% tariff on Brazil, a 40% tariff on Canada, and a 100% tariff on some other country, is literally just cancelling everything the United States have done over the last 70 to 80 years, which diminishes the objectives or the national objectives of the country.

取消這些自由貿易協定，或者乾脆開始改變這些協定，對巴西征收50%的關稅，對加拿大徵收40%的關稅，對其他國家徵收100%的關稅，這簡直就是取消美國在過去七八十年裡所做的一切，這削弱了美國的目標或國家目標。

Secondly, you cannot expect to renegotiate a trade agreement within a span of a few months.

其次，你不能指望在幾個月內重新談判一項貿易協定。

These agreements have taken the United States decades to negotiate with other countries.

美國花了幾十年時間與其他國家談判這些協議。

And now you come in and you expect to do it in a couple of months, that is impossible because those countries have their national interests as well.

現在你來了，卻期望在幾個月內完成，這是不可能的，因為這些國家也有自己的國家利益。

And compared to 20 years ago where you could actually sign with them a really great free trade agreement, today it's much more difficult because there are other countries that are proposing to be the global reserve currency.

與 20 年前相比，當時你可以與他們簽署一份非常好的自由貿易協定，而今天則要困難得多，因為還有其他國家提出要成為全球儲備貨幣。

They might say, you know what, we no longer want American banks in our country, maybe we'll start using Chinese banks.

他們可能會說，你知道嗎，我們不再需要美國的銀行了，也許我們會開始使用中國的銀行。

We no longer want your cars or your smartphones, we'll buy these smartphones and computers from China.

我們不再需要你們的汽車或智能手機，我們將從中國購買這些智能手機和電腦。

If you want to renegotiate these deals, they might not be as great as they have been over the last 50 to 80 years.

如果你想重新談判這些交易，它們可能不會像過去 50 到 80 年間那麼好。

The system hasn't been perfect and there have been a lot of real losers, such as farmers and manufacturing jobs.

這個系統並不完美，也有很多真正的失敗者，比如農民和製造業崗位。

There are other countries who farm the exact same thing outside the United States at a fraction of the price because the cost of labor in those countries is cheaper.

在美國以外的其他國家，種植完全相同的東西，價格卻只有美國的幾分之一，因為這些國家的勞動力成本更低。

Manufacturing jobs have left the United States because manufacturing jobs require a lot of labor and for example, building furniture in the United States is not as profitable as doing it in China and that's why those kind of jobs have been disappearing in the United States.

製造業工作離開美國，是因為製造業工作需要大量勞動力，例如，在美國製造傢俱不如在中國製造傢俱賺錢，這就是為什麼這類工作在美國消失的原因。

On the other side, the tech sector has been flourishing since the tech sector in the US hasn't just conquered the market in the United States but the market in the European Union, the market in the entire Asia and the rest of the world.

另一方面，由於美國的科技行業不僅征服了美國市場，還征服了歐盟市場、整個亞洲和世界其他地區的市場，是以科技行業一直在蓬勃發展。

The financial markets have been flourishing as well.

The US banks today exist literally in every corner of the world because the US dollar is the global reserve currency.

由於美元是全球儲備貨幣，今天的美國銀行幾乎遍佈世界每個角落。

And because of these two systems, the stock market in the United States have been going tremendously higher and higher.

正因為有了這兩個系統，美國股市才會一路高歌猛進。

Literally, investing in the stock market in the United States have been the best investment somebody could possibly make.

從字面上看，投資美國股市是人們可能做出的最佳投資。

And other stock markets across the globe haven't been growing this much.

而全球其他股市的增長幅度都沒有這麼大。

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特朗普始料未及：美國將從此一蹶不振 (Trump Didn’t See This Coming: America will never recover from this)

literally

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