Name: 每個人都對這張圖感到恐懼 (Everyone is freaking out about this graph)
Uploaded: 2025-07-17T08:59:00.000Z
Duration: 9 min 39 s

分詞構句

Everyone is freaking out about this graph, showing that the world's population is going to peak soon and then start to decrease.

每個人都對這張圖感到恐懼，因為它顯示世界人口即將達到頂峰，然後開始減少。

程度副詞

Demographers think that the world's population is going to peak around 10.9 billion before starting to decrease quite soon.

人口學家認為，世界人口將在 109 億左右達到頂峰，然後很快開始減少。

So today we're going to explain why the world's population is declining, why some people think this is the end of us, while others think this could be the best possible situation for humanity.

是以，今天我們將解釋為什麼世界人口在減少，為什麼有些人認為這是我們的末日，而另一些人則認為這可能是人類最好的處境。

This is some of the most fascinating information I've learned in years, so let's get into it.

這是我多年來了解到的最吸引人的資訊，讓我們一起來了解一下吧。

We first started recording population size in 4,000 BC when the Babylonians used birth and death census data to understand population size, to figure out how much food they needed to produce and how to plan for the future.

我們最早開始記錄人口數量是在公元前 4000 年，當時巴比倫人利用出生和死亡人口普查數據來了解人口數量，計算他們需要生產多少糧食，以及如何規劃未來。

In many ways now we're still doing the same thing.

在很多方面，我們現在仍在做同樣的事情。

Current governments use census data such as birth and death certificates to understand their own population size and understand how much food, again, that they need.

目前，各國政府利用人口普查數據（如出生和死亡證明）來了解本國的人口數量，並瞭解他們需要多少糧食。

But now society is more complex, so we design income tax for future investments, plan infrastructure to keep our citizens healthy and happy, and organize healthcare and education around our population sizes.

但現在的社會更加複雜，是以我們要為未來的投資設計所得稅，規劃基礎設施以保證公民的健康和幸福，並根據人口規模組織醫療和教育。

Now, when we want to understand the whole Earth's population we have to rely on overarching bodies like the UN.

現在，當我們想要了解整個地球的人口數量時，我們必須依靠像聯合國這樣的總體機構。

In 1968, the UN projected that by 1990 the global population would be 5.44 billion.

1968 年，聯合國預測到 1990 年全球人口將達到 54.4 億。

The real figure ended up being 5.34 billion.

The UN also predicted that by 2010 the population would be 6.8 to 7.2 billion, and the correct number was 7 billion.

聯合國還預測，到 2010 年，人口將達到 68 億至 72 億，而正確的數字是 70 億。

With the same UN data, we know that in as recent as 1974 the world's population was only 4 billion.

根據同樣的聯合國數據，我們知道在最近的 1974 年，世界人口只有 40 億。

That means that in the last 50 years the population on Earth has doubled.

這意味著在過去的 50 年裡，地球上的人口翻了一番。

This has to do with scientific breakthroughs in medicine, crop yields, and sanitation.

這與醫學、作物產量和衛生方面的科學突破有關。

But now the fertility rate is plummeting so much in specifically wealthy nations that the UN thinks that we'll peak at 10.9 billion around the year 2100, and then the population size on Earth is going to slowly start to decrease or stabilize.

但現在，富裕國家的生育率急劇下降，以至於聯合國認為，2100 年左右，我們的人口將達到 109 億的峰值，然後地球上的人口數量將開始慢慢減少或穩定下來。

They make these predictions by using the statistical idea of fertility rate.

他們利用生育率的統計理念做出了這些預測。

In order for a population to grow, the fertility rate needs to be above replacement level, which is 2.1 children being born per woman in that society. 2.1 represents the average number of children a woman would need to have in order for one of their kids to be a daughter who survives to childbearing age.

為了實現人口增長，生育率必須高於更替水準，即該社會中每名婦女生育 2.1 個孩子。2.1 表示一名婦女平均需要生育多少個孩子，才能讓其中一個孩子成為活到育齡期的女兒。

So truly all data about the future population statistics on Earth are based on how many kids women are having and the average number it takes for at least one of those kids to be a girl.

是以，有關地球未來人口統計的所有數據都是基於女性生育孩子的數量以及這些孩子中至少有一個是女孩的平均數量。

So in many ways, one of the most important things in the world is girls.

是以，從很多方面來看，女孩是世界上最重要的事物之一。

Now the reason our overall population is soon going to decrease is because the fertility rate is below replacement level in the U.S., all of Europe, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, all of Southern Asia, all of Eastern Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean.

現在，我們的總人口很快就會減少，原因是美國、整個歐洲、加拿大、澳洲、紐西蘭、整個南亞、整個東亞、拉丁美洲和加勒比地區的生育率都低於更替水準。

In fact, in the next 25 years, almost all of the population growth on Earth is gonna be coming from only eight countries.

事實上，在未來 25 年裡，地球上幾乎所有的人口增長都將來自八個國家。

That's Pakistan, the Philippines, India, Egypt, Ethiopia, Tanzania, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Nigeria.

這就是巴基斯坦、菲律賓、印度、埃及、衣索匹亞、坦尚尼亞、剛果民主共和國和尼日利亞。

In fact, in Nigeria, children and adolescents currently make up half of the population.

事實上，在尼日利亞，兒童和青少年目前佔總人口的一半。

Nigeria, with just 110th the land of the United States, is projected to soon hold 377 million people, becoming the planet's third most populous nation ahead of the U.S. and just behind only India and China.

尼日利亞的國土面積僅為美國的 110%，但預計不久將擁有 3.77 億人口，超過美國成為全球第三人口大國，僅次於印度和中國。

Now, even though populations might be growing in Sub-Saharan Africa, their consumption of resources is minuscule to those in, for example, North America.

現在，儘管撒哈拉以南非洲的人口可能在增長，但他們的資源消耗量與北美等地相比微不足道。

In January 2022, a study found that the average carbon dioxide emissions of one American is the equivalent of 22 people living in Sub-Saharan Africa.

2022 年 1 月，一項研究發現，一個美國人的平均二氧化碳排放量相當於 22 個撒哈拉以南非洲人的排放量。

Now, even in Sub-Saharan Africa, their fertility rate is decreasing.

現在，即使在撒哈拉以南非洲，他們的生育率也在下降。

It's now at 4.72 children on average being born per woman in Sub-Saharan Africa.

目前，撒哈拉以南非洲地區平均每名婦女生育 4.72 個孩子。

That's down two points from just 20 years ago.

這比 20 年前下降了兩個百分點。

Another big reason the Earth's population is going to decrease soon is China.

地球人口即將減少的另一個重要原因是中國。

In January 2022, China announced for the fifth year in a row that their country's birth rate had fallen.

2022 年 1 月，中國連續第五年宣佈出生率下降。

In 2021, 10.6 million children were born in China compared to 12 million the year before.

2021 年，中國的新生兒數量為 1060 萬，而前一年為 1200 萬。

In China, over the past seven years, the number of births has fallen by almost half from 18 million in 2016 to 9.6 million in 2022.

在中國，過去七年來，出生人數從 2016 年的 1800 萬減少到 2022 年的 960 萬，減少了近一半。

All of this is going to lead to an Earth that a new CPAN paper predicts will peak in population as early as 2064 at around only 9.7 billion people and then plummet back to 8 billion people by the time it's 2100.

CPAN 的一篇新論文預測，所有這些都將導致地球人口最早在 2064 年達到峰值，大約只有 97 億人，然後在 2100 年時急劇下降到 80 億人。

According to this paper, we'll increase by another 2 billion people by 2064.

根據這份文件，到 2064 年，我們將再增加 20 億人口。

Then by the end of the century, we will be back to where we are right now at 8 billion people.

到本世紀末，我們的人口將回到現在的 80 億。

Even though this study was peer reviewed by many scientists and demographers, still the most trusted numbers come from the UN.

儘管這項研究經過了許多科學家和人口學家的同行評審，但最值得信賴的數字仍然來自聯合國。

Now, it's also really important to understand how the future population shifts are gonna change so much depending on which country you're in.

現在，同樣重要的是，要了解未來的人口變化是如何根據你所在的國家而發生巨大變化的。

In fact, using current census data, without immigration, by 2100, Spain, Italy, Thailand, and Japan will see their population sizes cut in half.

事實上，根據目前的人口普查數據，如果沒有移民，到 2100 年，西班牙、意大利、泰國和日本的人口將減少一半。

Japan, a country that's immigration averse, by 2045 may statistically have one quarter of their population with dementia.

據統計，到 2045 年，日本將有四分之一的人口患有痴呆症。

And without increased immigration, their social systems could collapse and be unable to sustain the proper health of their aging population.

如果不增加移民，這些國家的社會體系就可能崩潰，無法維持老齡人口的正常健康。

And the only way our population can stabilize or increase is by allowing 500,000 newcomers into Canada each year.

而我們人口穩定或增長的唯一途徑就是每年允許 50 萬新移民進入加拿大。

And even demographers and politicians think we need to allow more newcomers into Canada to deal with the decreasing population we currently have.

甚至連人口學家和政治家都認為，我們需要允許更多的新移民進入加拿大，以應對目前不斷減少的人口。

So demographers agree that to deal with the imbalance in fertility rates around the world, we need to increase the amount of immigration that is happening.

是以，人口學家一致認為，要解決世界各地生育率失衡的問題，我們需要增加移民數量。

Right now, only two to 4% of the world's population lives outside of the country they were born in.

目前，全世界只有 2% 到 4% 的人口生活在出生國之外。

I think maybe because I'm from Toronto, which is extremely diverse, the idea that only two to 4% of people live outside of their country of origin is like, I don't understand that.

我想，也許是因為我來自多倫多，而多倫多是一個非常多元化的城市，所以只有 2% 到 4% 的人生活在原籍國以外的地方，我不明白這一點。

That stat makes you realize clearly that immigration is not happening enough.

這個統計數字讓你清楚地意識到，移民還不夠多。

Between the year 2000 to 2020, according to the UN, the number of international migrants and refugees who had fled conflict or crisis or prosecution, human rights violations, things like that, has increased from 17 million to 34 million.

據聯合國統計，從 2000 年到 2020 年，為逃避衝突、危機、起訴、侵犯人權行為等的國際移民和難民人數從 1700 萬增加到 3400 萬。

This is due to increased conflict on earth.

這是因為地球上的衝突增加了。

This is an amazing opportunity for wealthy countries to welcome newcomers and immigrants, but sadly, poorer countries take on that burden.

對於富裕國家來說，這是一個歡迎新來者和移民的絕佳機會，但可悲的是，較貧窮的國家卻承擔了這一負擔。

In fact, 85% of forcibly displaced people currently live in Turkey, Jordan, and Kenya.

事實上，85% 的被迫流離失所者目前生活在土耳其、約旦和肯亞。

I repeat, 85% of forcibly displaced people are currently in Turkey, Jordan, or Kenya.

我再說一遍，85% 的被迫流離失所者目前在土耳其、約旦或肯亞。

This shows how effectively wealthy nations with decreasing population sizes are keeping refugees and newcomers out.

這表明，人口不斷減少的富裕國家是如何有效地將難民和新移民拒之門外的。

A lot of this has to do with xenophobic governments that create this false idea that immigrants are a burden to society, when in fact, they're the only way that these wealthy nations will ever be able to continue to grow.

這在很大程度上與政府的排外主義有關，政府製造了移民是社會負擔的錯誤觀念，而事實上，移民是這些富裕國家得以繼續發展的唯一途徑。

Some corporations, public figures, and politicians are freaking out about the world's population declining because they think it's gonna mess with economic markets to the point of destruction.

一些企業、公眾人物和政客對世界人口減少感到恐慌，因為他們認為這會擾亂經濟市場，以至於造成破壞。

But many other economists and scientists think we can reframe this information to be extremely positive.

但許多其他經濟學家和科學家認為，我們可以將這些資訊重塑為極為積極的資訊。

First of all, fertility rate decreases as a society gains more gender equality, partly because women tend to have children later in life and fewer children overall within countries that have higher gender equality statistics.

首先，生育率會隨著社會性別平等程度的提高而降低，部分原因是在性別平等程度較高的國家，婦女往往晚婚晚育，而且生育子女的總體數量較少。

The fertility rate in Nigeria has decreased as women gained more independence, more rights, more happiness, and more jobs.

隨著婦女獲得更多獨立、更多權利、更多幸福和更多工作，尼日利亞的生育率有所下降。

So fertility rate decreasing is a sign of women getting more rights, and this actually helps societies overall.

是以，生育率下降是婦女獲得更多權利的標誌，這實際上有助於社會的整體發展。

A new study found that when countries have more women legislators, they have decreased poverty, decreased hunger, and increased climate action, which leads to the next point that population stability or decline may be a good thing for the climate crisis.

一項新的研究發現，當國家擁有更多的女性立法者時，貧困就會減少，飢餓就會減少，氣候行動就會增加，這就引出了下一個問題，即人口的穩定或減少對氣候危機來說可能是件好事。

A new study found that the lower fertility rates around the world will result in decreased emissions by 2055 and a per capita income increase of 10% per citizen.

一項新的研究發現，到 2055 年，全球生育率降低將導致排放量減少，每個公民的個人所得將增加 10%。

So it's been found that wealth is distributed more evenly as fertility rates decrease.

是以，人們發現，隨著生育率的降低，財富的分配會更加均勻。

As well, when fertility rates decrease, women take on more government and corporate jobs, and studies show that when women are in leadership roles, they are more likely to advance initiatives that fight climate change and protect nature.

此外，當生育率下降時，女性會承擔更多的政府和企業工作，而且研究表明，當女性擔任領導職務時，她們更有可能推進應對氣候變化和保護自然的倡議。

When it comes to this fear of a stabilizing population size or a decrease in population size on Earth, it's always linked to a fear of a failing economy.

說到對地球人口數量穩定或減少的恐懼，總是與對經濟衰退的恐懼聯繫在一起。

But economists agree that we can't have this current infinite economic growth on a finite planet.

但經濟學家們一致認為，我們不可能在一個有限的星球上實現當前這種無限的經濟增長。

If we focus on the fossil fuel industry, which controls much of current market trends, the current economic growth expected for fossil fuel companies the way they are right now will lead to extraction and emissions that create an ecosystem collapse by 2030, which economists think will cost the world $2.7 trillion per year.

如果我們把注意力集中在控制著當前大部分市場趨勢的化石燃料行業，那麼化石燃料公司目前的經濟增長預期將導致開採和排放，到 2030 年造成生態系統崩潰，經濟學家認為這將使全球每年損失 2.7 萬億美元。

Deloitte recently estimated that without significant decreases to fossil fuel extraction, climate chaos will cost the US alone $14.5 trillion per year by 2070.

德勤公司最近估計，如果不大幅減少化石燃料的開採，到 2070 年，僅氣候混亂就將使美國每年損失 14.5 萬億美元。

This will be due to wildfires, droughts, and floods, destroying communities, farms, businesses, and housing.

野火、乾旱和洪水將摧毀社區、農場、企業和住房。

So the population is going to soon decrease and people are going to be freaking out about this.

是以，人口很快就會減少，人們會為此感到恐慌。

But I think this information gives us a new context or lens to think about who's freaking out about the population decrease and why.

但我認為，這些資訊為我們提供了一個新的背景或視角，讓我們思考是誰對人口減少感到恐慌，以及為什麼。

If less people means more gender equality, healthier people, wealthier people, an ability for us to live more in tandem with nature, and a decrease in the climate chaos that we're seeing today, why does it have to be such a bad thing?

如果人少意味著性別更平等、更健康、更富裕、更能與大自然和諧共處，以及減少我們今天看到的氣候混亂，那為什麼一定是壞事呢？

I'll link to our podcast here where we have even more population statistics.

我將在這裡鏈接到我們的播客，那裡有更多的人口統計數據。

This is a fascinating concept and I can't wait to do more research and see what happens to the earth's population in the future.

這是一個引人入勝的概念，我迫不及待地想做更多研究，看看未來地球人口會發生什麼變化。