Name: "大多數人不知道即將發生什麼"--最後的警告 ("Most People Have No Idea What Is Coming" – Last WARNING)
Uploaded: 2025-06-18T11:36:22.000Z
Duration: 18 min 39 s

轉承詞

Elon Musk joined the government to fix the national debt crisis because he was convinced that the government of the United States is headed for bankruptcy just like a human would do.

埃隆-馬斯克加入政府來解決國債危機，因為他堅信美國政府會像人類一樣走向破產。

程度副詞

If you borrow too much money and you owe too much interest, sooner or later, you will default.

如果你借的錢太多，欠的利息也太多，遲早會違約。

He laid this strategy multiple times on Joe Rogan interview, and it made sense.

他在喬-羅根的訪談中多次闡述了這一策略，而且很有道理。

If you look at this graph, it's very clear that the government is in crisis.

如果你看一下這張圖，就會非常清楚地看到政府正處於危機之中。

Somewhat around here, a crisis has happened and the debt ballooned to 37 trillion dollars as of 2025, and it was a matter of time before it gets much worse than that.

在這附近，危機已經發生，截至 2025 年，債務已膨脹到 37 萬億美元，比這更糟糕是遲早的事。

So he joined the government to help the government by reducing the extra expenses.

於是，他加入了政府，幫助政府減少額外開支。

In his mind, the strategy was very simple and straightforward.

在他看來，戰略非常簡單直接。

If I join the government, I can easily cut all of this wasteful spending and we can prevent a default.

如果我加入政府，就能輕鬆削減所有這些浪費性支出，我們就能避免違約。

If you are spending 6.7 trillion dollars, on the other hand, you are making less than 5 trillion dollars, then the government has to borrow from somewhere the extra cash and that's an extra almost 1.9 trillion dollars.

如果你花費了 6.7 萬億美元，而另一方面，你的收入卻不到 5 萬億美元，那麼政府就必須從某個地方借到額外的現金，這就多出了近 1.9 萬億美元。

This year, it is going to be 2.1 trillion dollars.

If we continue with this deficit, then it's a matter of time before we run out of money.

如果我們繼續這樣赤字下去，那麼我們的錢遲早會花光。

Imagine you are making 100 thousand dollars, but you are spending 150 thousand dollars.

想象一下，你掙 10 萬美元，卻要花 15 萬美元。

You can mathematically predict that at some point in the future, you are going to default.

你可以用數學方法預測，在未來的某個時候，你會違約。

Elon Musk is the most qualified person to fix this problem because his entire entrepreneurship career was about cutting costs.

埃隆-馬斯克是最有資格解決這個問題的人，因為他的整個創業生涯就是在削減成本。

He started SpaceX and cut costs to bring down the cost of sending the rockets.

他創辦了 SpaceX 公司，並削減成本，以降低發送火箭的成本。

Before SpaceX, NASA would spend 400 million dollars to send a rocket to space.

在 SpaceX 之前，NASA 會花費 4 億美元將火箭送上太空。

He realized that there is a lot of wasteful spending, especially why don't we have reusable rockets?

他意識到有很多浪費，尤其是為什麼我們沒有可重複使用的火箭？

Why do we build a rocket that is super expensive and just simply throw it in the ocean?

為什麼我們要製造一枚超級昂貴的火箭，卻只是把它扔進大海？

If we can turn that rocket into a reusable rocket, then we are saving ourselves hundreds of millions of dollars and in the long run, billions of dollars.

如果我們能把這枚火箭變成可重複使用的火箭，那麼我們就能節省數億美元，從長遠來看，還能節省數十億美元。

And that's why SpaceX became the most successful space company in the world.

這就是 SpaceX 成為世界上最成功的太空公司的原因。

Building a car company is almost impossible.

建立一家汽車公司幾乎是不可能的。

But because he could lower down the cost of building cars, he could manufacture Teslas in the United States within one giant gigafactory that allowed him to lower down costs.

但是，由於他可以降低造車成本，他可以在美國的一個巨型千兆工廠內生產特斯拉，從而降低成本。

That's something not a single other automaker can be proud of.

這是其他任何一家汽車製造商都無法企及的。

Ford manufactures a lot of its components outside the United States.

福特在美國以外生產大量零部件。

The same thing you can say about any other automaker.

But Elon Musk built one giant gigafactory when there is a long line of automated production line that would make it possible within the United States.

但是，埃隆-馬斯克只建造了一個巨大的千兆工廠，而在美國國內有一長串自動化生產線可以實現這一點。

I can get into the government and do the exact same thing.

我可以進入政府，做同樣的事情。

We can make certain agencies much more productive, we can get rid of agencies that are unnecessary, and we can easily lower down the cost or the spending of the government by 2 trillion dollars.

我們可以提高某些機構的工作效率，我們可以撤銷那些不必要的機構，我們可以輕鬆地將政府的成本或支出降低 2 萬億美元。

A lot of people did not agree with Elon Musk, because people think that somehow government spending is always good.

很多人並不同意埃隆-馬斯克的觀點，因為人們認為政府支出總是有好處的。

But not all government spending is a good spending.

但並不是所有的政府支出都是好的支出。

The government can build a bridge to nowhere.

政府可以建造一座不通往任何地方的橋樑。

Yes, it's a bridge that the government built.

是的，這是一座政府建造的橋樑。

But this bridge is serving nobody, which is why it's a bridge to nowhere.

但這座橋不為任何人服務，所以它是一座不通往任何地方的橋。

The government is filled with agencies that are absolutely unnecessary.

政府中充斥著許多完全沒有必要的機構。

Millions of people work in those agencies, and you have to spend billions of dollars, if not hundreds of billions of dollars to sustain them.

數百萬人在這些機構工作，你必須花費數十億美元，甚至數千億美元來維持這些機構的運轉。

These agencies make sure that everybody follows regulations.

這些機構確保每個人都遵守法規。

But pretty often, there are plenty of regulations that are absolutely unnecessary.

但很多時候，有很多規定是完全沒有必要的。

You can do everything in one single agency.

您可以在一個機構內完成所有工作。

But instead, we have 5 different agencies, which means that now, in order for you to prove a certain business license, you have to go to 5 different agencies, which increases the cost and makes business extremely inefficient.

但是，我們卻有 5 個不同的機構，這就意味著，現在要證明某個營業執照，你必須去 5 個不同的機構，這就增加了成本，使業務效率極低。

Which is why if we get rid of these agencies, we can deregulate the entire market.

這就是為什麼如果我們取消了這些機構，就可以放鬆對整個市場的管制。

On one side, we are saving plenty of money.

一方面，我們節省了大量資金。

On the other side, we are making it much easier to do business, which will boost business in the United States, which will end up to more taxes for the government, which will fix the debt problem.

另一方面，我們正在使經商變得更加容易，這將促進美國的商業發展，最終為政府帶來更多稅收，從而解決債務問題。

And that's why he started his doge with 2 trillion dollar pledge.

這就是為什麼他一開始就承諾提供 2 萬億美元。

But then when he joined the government, he realized that 2 trillion dollars is too much.

但當他加入政府後，他意識到 2 萬億美元太多了。

You cannot possibly do that, no matter how hard you try.

無論你多麼努力，都不可能做到這一點。

Which is why he revised his plan and said that, we are going to save the government 1 trillion dollars, and by deregulating the businesses, we are going to increase the government's revenue by an extra 2 trillion dollars.

這就是為什麼他修改了他的計劃，並說，我們將為政府節省1萬億美元，而通過放鬆對企業的管制，我們將為政府額外增加2萬億美元的收入。

So it gets us to the exact same position.

While this plan sounds like it's supposed to work, he is giving up and leaving the Washington and he no longer is going to be involved in politics and will no longer try to save the American government and fix the national debt.

雖然這個計劃聽起來應該可行，但他放棄了，離開了華盛頓，他不再參與政治，不再試圖拯救美國政府和解決國債問題。

So why exactly the man who built some of the most fascinating companies of the 21st century is giving up?

那麼，這位創建了 21 世紀最迷人公司的人究竟為什麼要放棄呢？

If Elon Musk cannot solve this problem, then there is nobody who can solve that.

如果埃隆-馬斯克不能解決這個問題，那麼就沒有人能解決這個問題了。

Is it too late to fix this problem that he gave up and left Washington?

他放棄並離開了華盛頓，現在解決這個問題是否為時已晚？

The first mistake is that, in business, you are accountable to shareholders.

第一個錯誤是，在企業中，你要對股東負責。

But in government, you are accountable to voters, congress and the court.

但在政府中，你要對選民、國會和法院負責。

Because when you are running Tesla or SpaceX, all you have to care about are what shareholders are thinking about.

因為當你經營特斯拉或 SpaceX 時，你所要關心的就是股東們在想什麼。

And they have their mentality and their mindset and their goals.

他們有自己的心態、思想和目標。

So as long as you make them happy, you can do everything you want in your company.

是以，只要你能讓他們滿意，你就可以在公司裡為所欲為。

You want to slash the number of employees, get rid of some products, boost revenue, cut expenses.

你想削減員工人數，放棄一些產品，增加收入，減少開支。

You can do whatever you want and nobody can tell you no.

你可以做任何你想做的事，沒有人可以對你說 "不"。

You have the full authority to do whatever you want.

你有充分的權力做任何你想做的事。

But when it comes to the government, suddenly you are accountable to voters who elected you.

但當涉及到政府時，你突然要對選舉你的選民負責了。

And they don't necessarily want a very effective government.

他們不一定想要一個非常有效的政府。

They literally just want a better thing for themselves.

Imagine your employees want a better life.

想象一下，您的員工希望過上更好的生活。

他們會要求你更加努力地工作。

Would they ask you to cut their salaries?

他們會要求你削減他們的工資嗎？

So we are talking about social security, medicare and medicaid.

是以，我們談論的是社會保障、醫療保險和醫療補助。

And in order to make any kind of changes, you need 60% of the senate to do that.

而要做出任何改變，都需要參議院 60% 的議員支持。

Yes, in theory, you can do that with a simple majority of 51%.

是的，從理論上講，只要有 51% 的簡單多數就可以做到這一點。

But if you don't want filibuster, then you need 60% in the senate.

但如果你不想要 "拉布"，那麼你需要參議院60%的支持率。

And that's something that republicans don't have.

So automatically, no matter how hard you try, you cannot already touch 70% of the entire spending.

是以，無論你如何努力，都無法自動觸及全部支出的 70%。

And that leaves you with discretionary spending of 1.7 trillion dollars.

剩下的就是 1.7 萬億美元的自由支配支出。

Well that's a lot of money, that's almost 2 trillion dollars, the goal that Elon Musk set in front of himself.

這可是一大筆錢，差不多有 2 萬億美元，這是埃隆-馬斯克為自己設定的目標。

That is, 1 trillion dollars of that is defense and the other 700 billion dollars is everything else.

也就是說，其中 1 萬億美元用於國防，另外 7000 億美元用於其他方面。

Cutting military spending is not an option, especially when the United States is going through multiple geopolitical challenges.

削減軍費開支不是一個選項，尤其是在美國面臨多重地緣政治挑戰的時候。

On one side, you have a conflict in Europe, on the other side, you have a conflict in Southeast Asia, and then you have to maintain a thousand military bases all across the globe.

一邊是歐洲的衝突，一邊是東南亞的衝突，還要在全球各地維持上千個軍事基地。

So that leaves you with 700 billion dollars that you can possibly play around.

這樣，你就有 7000 億美元可以隨意支配。

Best case scenario, you can cut 10% of that, but that's just almost 100 billion dollars in the best case scenario.

在最好的情況下，你可以削減其中的 10%，但在最好的情況下，這也只是近 1000 億美元。

Probably something between 60 to 70 billion dollars.

大概在 600 億到 700 億美元之間。

Which makes the goal of 2 trillion dollars almost impossible.

這使得 2 萬億美元的目標幾乎不可能實現。

The second mistake he did is that, the goals of the government and the business are completely different.

他犯的第二個錯誤是，政府和企業的目標完全不同。

When it comes to the business, the first goal is profitability.

說到企業，首要目標就是盈利。

As long as you make the company profitable, you're good, shareholders will love you, you don't have to ask them what exactly do they want, because you know that they want a profitable company.

只要你能讓公司盈利，你就是好樣的，股東就會喜歡你，你不必問他們到底想要什麼，因為你知道他們想要的是一家盈利的公司。

The second goal is of course stock prices.