Name: 美元正在崩潰，其嚴重程度遠超您的預期 (US Dollar Is Collapsing, And Its Far Worse Than You Expect)
Uploaded: 2025-06-18T11:11:17.000Z
Duration: 14 min 16 s

過去簡單式

This is what Jamie Dimon said about the bond market.

傑米-戴蒙是這樣評價債券市場的。

to 不定詞

And that means that the US dollar is about to lose its position as the global currency reserve because it stands on the shoulders of the bond market.

這意味著美元即將失去其作為全球貨幣儲備的地位，因為它是站在債券市場的肩膀上的。

And if anything negative happens to that bond market, then you can forget the dollar to be the global currency reserve.

如果該債券市場發生任何負面事件，那麼你就可以忘記美元作為全球貨幣儲備的地位了。

And if that happens, it will create hyperinflation in the US, the likes we have never seen.

如果發生這種情況，美國將出現我們從未見過的惡性通貨膨脹。

So the global financial crisis of 2008 that shook down the entire US economy will seem absolutely nothing.

是以，2008 年撼動整個美國經濟的全球金融危機將顯得完全不值一提。

即使是大蕭條，也不會有什麼影響。

This will be by far the greatest crisis in the entire history of the US.

這將是迄今為止美國曆史上最嚴重的危機。

So here in this video, let's try to answer a couple of questions. 1.

是以，在這段視頻中，讓我們試著回答幾個問題。1.

Why exactly Jamie Dimon, who is the most powerful banker in the world with more data than anyone else besides the Fed, is so worried about the bond market?

傑米-戴蒙是世界上除美聯儲之外掌握著最多數據的銀行家，他為何如此擔心債券市場？

Why does he believe that in 40 years from now, the US dollar will no longer be the global currency reserve?

為什麼他認為 40 年後美元將不再是全球貨幣儲備？

That's exactly what he said, that if the trend is going to continue the way it is, and according to his math, then forget the dollar. 2.

他正是這麼說的，如果趨勢繼續如此，根據他的計算，那就忘了美元吧。2.

And thirdly, he said that he is going to make so much money out of it that people will look at JP Morgan and will think that they have created this crisis in order to profit out of it.

第三，他說他將從中大賺一筆，讓人們看到摩根大通，認為他們製造了這場危機，以便從中獲利。

So he is telling everybody that I am warning you, so you prepare yourself and get ready and take advantage out of it just like JP Morgan is trying to do.

是以，他告訴大家，我在警告你們，所以你們要做好準備，就像摩根大通試圖做的那樣，從中獲利。

So if you are ready, give this video a thumbs up and let's get right into it.

所以，如果你準備好了，請為這段視頻豎起大拇指，讓我們開始吧。

If the current trend continues, in 40 years from now, we will find ourselves that the total debt will grow to 230 trillion dollars.

如果目前的趨勢繼續下去，40 年後，我們會發現債務總額將增長到 230 萬億美元。

I honestly cannot even comprehend what 230 trillion dollars is.

老實說，我甚至無法理解 230 萬億美元是個什麼概念。

We are not talking about billions of dollars, we are already talking about hundreds of trillions of dollars.

我們談論的不是數十億美元，而是數百萬億美元。

And that kind of debt is unmanageable for most people.

而這種債務對大多數人來說是無法承受的。

Which means that the interest payments alone on that debt annually will be 10 trillion dollars.

這意味著每年僅債務利息支出就將達到 10 萬億美元。

And that means that 38% of the entire government's revenue will be spent on servicing that debt.

這意味著整個政府收入的 38% 將用於償還債務。

In 40 years from now, given the fact that the trend continues the way it is, almost half of the taxes that will be collected from people who are paying so much taxes is going to go towards paying off just the interest on the debt that the government has borrowed.

40 年後，如果這種趨勢繼續下去，那麼從納稅人那裡徵收的稅款幾乎有一半將用於償還政府借貸的債務利息。

How do you think the government will be able to pay for social security, medicare, defense and other expenses?

您認為政府將如何支付社會保障、醫療保險、國防和其他費用？

So I guess they will simply abolish the social security, even though that you spend your entire life paying payroll tax.

是以，我猜他們會乾脆取消社會保障，即使你一輩子都在繳納工資稅。

This is why Jamie Dimon said, the greatest crisis is not China, is not an enemy from outside.

這就是為什麼傑米-戴蒙說，最大的危機不是中國，不是來自外部的敵人。

The greatest enemy that the United States is facing is an enemy from within.

美國面臨的最大敵人是來自內部的敵人。

That the country cannot come together and start fixing these problems instead of blaming everybody else.

國家不能團結起來，開始解決這些問題，而不是指責其他人。

And this scenario considering the fact that the current spending continues the way it is.

在這種情況下，還要考慮到目前的支出仍在繼續。

However, if you look at the history of the United States, time to time it goes through crises and it has to boost spending in order to get out of that crisis.

然而，縱觀美國的歷史，它時常會經歷危機，不得不增加開支以擺脫危機。

The last one was in 2020, prior to that we had a crisis in 2008, then back in 2001 when the dot com bubble burst.

上一次是在 2020 年，在此之前，我們在 2008 年經歷了一次危機，然後又回到了 2001 年，當時互聯網保麗龍破裂。

So the nature of the crises within the entire spectrum of the US economy are something normal.

是以，美國整個經濟領域的危機性質是正常的。

What are the chances that the United States will not face a single recession in the next 40 years?

在未來 40 年中，美國有多大可能不會出現一次經濟衰退？

Nobody believes that, because we have recessions literally every 5, 7 or 10 years.

沒有人相信這一點，因為我們每 5 年、7 年或 10 年就會出現一次經濟衰退。

Which means that this number can easily be divided by 2.

也就是說，這個數字很容易被 2 整除。

According to Jamie Dimon, since 2020, in the last 5 years, the government of the United States already borrowed over 10 trillion dollars.

根據傑米-戴蒙的說法，自 2020 年以來，在過去 5 年中，美國政府已經借貸了超過 10 萬億美元。

The bond market determines how much interest the United States is going to pay on its debt.

債券市場決定著美國將為其債務支付多少利息。

And given the size of the debt of the United States, you can say that it's important, because a single percentage is going to cost the United States at the current debt level 400 billion dollars.

考慮到美國的債務規模，可以說這一點非常重要，因為按照目前的債務水準，一個百分點就會讓美國損失 4000 億美元。

And if it's going to be 230 trillion dollars, imagine a single percentage is going to cost the government 2.3 trillion dollars.

如果要達到 230 萬億美元，試想一個百分比就會讓政府損失 2.3 萬億美元。

And that's why it's important to have the faith of investors in the bond market.

是以，投資者對債券市場的信心非常重要。

Because based on that, it is going to be determined how much interest you are going to pay.

因為在此基礎上，將決定你要支付多少利息。

And you can't suddenly just make more money.

你不可能突然就賺到更多的錢。

You can't just force people to pay more in taxes.

你不能強迫人們繳納更多的稅款。

您可以增加稅收，最高可達 50%。

But if you raise them more than 50%, then there is no incentive for people to work harder, make more money, because they know that they will have to pay the vast majority of that money back to the government.

但是，如果提高 50%以上，人們就沒有動力去努力工作，賺更多的錢，因為他們知道，他們將不得不把這些錢的絕大部分還給政府。

It makes sense when the country is going through a real crisis, such as World War II, where taxes were increased up to 95%.

當國家經歷真正的危機時，比如第二次世界大戰，稅收增加高達 95%，這樣做是有道理的。

But during peace periods, do you think people are going to buy that?

但在和平時期，你認為人們會買賬嗎？

They will literally just leave the United States and just live elsewhere, where they don't have to pay that much taxes.

他們真的會離開美國，去其他地方生活，在那裡他們不用繳納那麼多稅。

And that's why making sure that the trust of investors are there for the United States is so important.

這就是為什麼確保投資者對美國的信任如此重要。

If the trust is going to be cracked down, if the trust is going to be lost by investors, it's going to shake the bond market, then the United States dollar suddenly is going to be removed as the global currency reserve.

如果信任受到打擊，如果投資者失去信任，如果債券市場動盪，那麼美元作為全球貨幣儲備的地位就會突然消失。

So the more trust there is, the lower interest rates the government is going to pay.

是以，信任度越高，政府支付的利率就越低。

The higher the trust is, the less interest the government is going to pay.

信託金額越高，政府支付的利息就越少。

So the entire budget of the United States depends on the bond market.

是以，美國的整個預算都依賴於債券市場。

That's why he's so worried about that there will be a crack in the bond market, and it's going to cause a serious crisis.

這就是為什麼他如此擔心債券市場會出現裂縫，並引發嚴重危機。

He literally said that, I don't know whether it's going to happen in six months from now or in six years from now.

他說，"我不知道六個月後會發生什麼，也不知道六年後會發生什麼。

But if it happens, then we're in a catastrophe.

但如果發生了，我們就會陷入一場災難。

So the only way to fix this problem is to simply restore the face in the US economy, so that investors understand that it's much safer to lend money to the US government.

是以，要解決這個問題，唯一的辦法就是恢復美國經濟的面子，讓投資者明白，把錢借給美國政府要安全得多。

But when they see this relentless, or I would say reckless spending by the government, that they have no incentive to lend money to the US government at such a low interest rate.

但是，當他們看到政府這種無情的，或者我可以說是不計後果的支出時，他們就沒有動力以如此低的利率借錢給美國政府了。

They will keep demanding higher interest rates because they can literally do the math.

他們會繼續要求更高的利率，因為他們真的會算賬。

They understand that, well, if this is the trend, then I'm not going to make my money back anytime soon, which is why I would rather simply just sell my government bonds.

他們明白，好吧，如果這是趨勢，那麼我的錢很快就賺不回來了，這就是為什麼我寧願乾脆賣掉我的政府債券。

Even if you go back to the period of Reagan, who was literally the guy who incentivized the United States to cut as much taxes as possible.

即使追溯到里根時期，他也是鼓勵美國儘可能減稅的人。

他還希望建立一個非常小的政府。

One of the biggest tax cuts in the entire history of the United States was literally done by Ronald Reagan.

在整個美國曆史上，最大的減稅措施之一就是羅納德-里根所做的。

But during his time, the debt to GDP ratio was 35%.

但在他任職期間，債務與國內生產總值的比率為 35%。

And it's not about Republicans or Democrats, it's literally what both parties have been doing the last 35 years.

這不是共和黨或民主黨的問題，而是兩黨在過去 35 年裡一直在做的事情。

Secondly, the deficit during the Reagan, despite his cut taxes, was 3.5%.

其次，儘管里根減稅，但他執政期間的赤字率為 3.5%。

如今，這個數字翻了一番，達到了 6.5%。

And if this continues, let's say we have a recession, it can easily go to 10% because we know that during any kind of financial crisis, as the government just uses that printing press in order to boost the economy and give an incentive for people to work harder, which again creates massive inflation, just like in 2020 that we have seen.

如果這種情況持續下去，比方說，我們會出現經濟衰退，那麼通貨膨脹率很容易就會達到10%，因為我們知道，在任何形式的金融危機期間，政府都會動用印鈔機來刺激經濟，激勵人們更加努力地工作，這又會造成大規模的通貨膨脹，就像我們在2020年看到的那樣。

Even Reagan wasn't in such a big trouble like we are right now with the current deficit and the current debt to GDP ratio that we have.

即使是里根，也沒有像我們現在這樣陷入這麼大的麻煩，我們現在的赤字和債務與國內生產總值的比率都是如此。

And that leaves us with a couple of options.

Now according to Jamie Dimon, we cannot cut the military.

傑米-戴蒙認為，我們不能削減軍費。

The moment that the United States will no longer have the most powerful military in the world, the United States dollar can forget its position as the global currency reserve.

一旦美國不再擁有世界上最強大的軍事力量，美元就可以忘記其全球儲備貨幣的地位。

Because the United States military is everywhere.

It's literally controlling the entire world.

There are like over a thousand military bases in every single part of the world.

全世界每個地方都有上千個軍事基地。

And if somebody speaks against the United States, then you're going to mess with the most powerful military that has ever existed in the entire history of humankind.

如果有人對美國說三道四，那麼你就會惹上整個人類歷史上最強大的軍隊。

That's what stands out behind the United States dollar.

And if you get rid of that, if you stop spending so much money on the military, you will lose it.

如果你擺脫了這一點，如果你不再在軍事上花那麼多錢，你就會失去它。

You can't do that because you have so much money, you are so rich, you are maintaining those military bases, you are producing the most powerful weapons in the world.

你們做不到，因為你們有那麼多錢，你們那麼富有，你們在維護那些軍事基地，你們在生產世界上最強大的武器。

So we cannot cut spending on the military.

是以，我們不能削減軍費開支。

In fact, according to Jamie Dimon, we have to increase spending on the military.

事實上，傑米-戴蒙認為，我們必須增加軍費開支。

Well, currently we talk about the fact that, oh, we cannot do that because people have paid payroll taxes, they have the right to receive their social security payments.

目前，我們談論的事實是，哦，我們不能這樣做，因為人們已經繳納了工資稅，他們有權領取社會保障金。

But if we don't do anything, if we don't cut some spending, we have no other option.

但是，如果我們什麼都不做，如果我們不削減一些開支，我們別無選擇。

So the only two places we can cut spending is Medicare and social security.

是以，我們唯一可以削減開支的兩個地方就是醫療保險和社會保障。

Because the fourth major spending is, of course, the interest that we have to pay on the debt.

因為第四大支出當然是我們必須為債務支付的利息。

Do you have a politician who can literally just come out and say that, when I become the president, I will raise taxes?

有哪個政客能站出來說，當我成為總統後，我會提高稅收？

What do you think is going to happen to that president?