Name: 美麗大法案》的內容以及埃隆-馬斯克為何討厭它 (What's In The Big Beautiful Bill And Why Elon Musk Hates It)
Uploaded: 2025-06-11T08:44:59.000Z
Duration: 9 min 50 s

President Trump and Senate Majority Leader John Thune are pushing to get the Republicans' reconciliation bill passed by July 4th, but several senators are saying there needs to be more spending cuts.

特朗普總統和參議院多數黨領袖約翰-圖恩（John Thune）正力爭在 7 月 4 日之前通過共和黨的和解議案，但幾位參議員表示需要削減更多開支。

The best way I think to think about the Trump meta-bill is that it's sort of two pieces combined.

我認為，對特朗普元議案的最好理解是，它是兩個部分的結合。

One piece are priorities that Republicans have.

These are things like securing the border, boosting defense, boosting energy production.

這些都是諸如確保邊境安全、加強國防、提高能源生產等方面的問題。

It's stuff that Republicans ran, campaigned and won on in 2024 and things they hope will help them continue to keep their power in D.C. in the next midterm and next presidential election.

這是共和黨人在 2024 年競選、助選和獲勝的基礎，也是他們希望在下一次中期選舉和下一次總統選舉中繼續保持在華盛頓特區權力的基礎。

The other piece of this bill has to do with tax.

該法案的另一部分與稅收有關。

Back in 2017, Congress passed this absolutely massive tax package, but because of the way they passed it, most of that package will expire by the end of this year.

早在 2017 年，美國國會就通過了這個絕對龐大的稅收方案，但由於他們通過的方式，該方案的大部分內容將在今年年底到期。

And if that happens, millions of Americans are actually going to see an increase in the amount of taxes that they have to pay.

如果出現這種情況，數百萬美國人需要繳納的稅款實際上將會增加。

And so the other part of this package is extending a lot of that work that was done in 2017, as well as, again, a number of things that Trump campaigned on.

是以，這一攬子計劃的另一部分是延續2017年所做的大量工作，以及特朗普競選時所提出的一些事項。

Certain lawmakers have complaints about various provisions in the bill.

某些立法者對法案中的各種條款表示不滿。

However, it's difficult to vote against the entire thing if there are, you know, 100 provisions in it and you really only hate one of them.

不過，如果其中有 100 條規定，而你真的只討厭其中一條，那就很難對整部法案投反對票了。

Voting against the bill means you voted against the other 99 ones that you like.

對該法案投反對票意味著你對其他 99 個你喜歡的法案投了反對票。

And so this is why, especially today in Congress, you see a lot of legislation move that are these absolutely massive packages because it really puts pressure on individual lawmakers to get over some of their individual concerns with the bill and ultimately support it.

是以，這就是為什麼，特別是在今天的國會，你會看到很多立法動議都是這些絕對龐大的一攬子法案，因為這確實給個別立法者施加了壓力，讓他們克服對法案的一些個人顧慮，最終支持法案。

If you look at the tax portion of the bill, you can also break that down into about three different parts.

如果你看一下法案中的稅收部分，也可以將其分為大約三個不同的部分。

The first part is just everything that's extending that 2017 tax package that passed that is now set to expire at the end of the year.

第一部分是延長 2017 年通過的稅收方案的所有內容，該方案將於今年年底到期。

So this includes things like a larger standard deduction.

是以，這包括諸如更大的標準扣除額。

It includes things like changing personal income tax brackets so that most people did wind up having to pay less taxes.

其中包括改變個人所得稅稅級，使大多數人最終少繳稅。

It includes things like extending the child tax credit and actually adds a sort of plus up to it for the first couple of years.

它包括延長兒童稅收抵免等內容，實際上是在最初幾年增加了一種附加值。

It includes bringing back some of these tax credits and tax deductions for businesses to help them out with interest deductions and R&D expenses.

其中包括恢復部分稅收抵免和稅收減免，以幫助企業減免利息和研發費用。

There's a lot of different things that are packed into the tax bill that are mostly they're just trying to continue what was in 2017 and make sure that it doesn't expire.

稅收法案中包含了很多不同的內容，主要是為了延續 2017 年的內容，確保其不會過期。

I will pass historic tax cuts for our workers and small businesses.

我將為我們的工人和小企業通過歷史性的減稅政策。

The second piece of this tax bill are the things that Trump campaigned on that he now wants to make sure become reality.

這項稅收法案的第二部分是特朗普在競選時提出的，而他現在希望確保將其變為現實。

These include things like new tax on tips.

It also includes some benefits for those folks who are paying off an auto loan.

它還為那些正在償還汽車貸款的人提供了一些優惠。

If the auto is made in the United States, you can take a deduction on that.

如果汽車是在美國製造的，您可以從中扣除費用。

These are all different things that are included in the bill to kind of fill that Trump campaign promise.

這些都是法案中包含的不同內容，以兌現特朗普的競選承諾。

The third bucket is a bit of the newer things, maybe things that Trump didn't really talk about and maybe they were in the 2017 tax bill, but now they're getting a bit of a change.

第三桶是一些較新的東西，也許是特朗普沒有真正談及的東西，也許它們在 2017 年的稅收法案中就有，但現在它們得到了一些改變。

This includes that higher deduction for state and local taxes, $40,000 rather than $10,000.

這包括州稅和地方稅的更高扣除額，即 40,000 美元而不是 10,000 美元。

This includes endowment taxes being raised on certain universities if they have large endowments compared to what their student population is.

如果某些大學的捐贈額與其學生人數相比較大，就會提高捐贈稅。

It includes taxes on private foundations.

It includes a retaliatory tax for international corporations and investors whose home countries have what a lot of lawmakers see as discriminatory taxes on the U.S.

其中包括對其母國對美國徵收被許多立法者視為歧視性稅收的國際公司和投資者徵收報復性稅收。

President Trump and Elon Musk falling into an intense feud over the president's major tax and spending bill.

特朗普總統和埃隆-馬斯克（Elon Musk）因總統的重大稅收和支出法案而陷入激烈爭吵。

What was surprising about it was just the idea that it came so quickly, right?

令人驚訝的是，它來得如此之快，對嗎？

I mean, Elon Musk was in the Oval Office with the president a week before this blow up and they were both heaping praise on one another.

我的意思是，埃隆-馬斯克（Elon Musk）與總統在橢圓形辦公室共進午餐，就在這件事發生的一週前，他們還在互相稱讚。

I'm very disappointed because Elon knew the inner workings of this bill better than almost anybody sitting here, better than you people.

我感到非常失望，因為伊隆比在座的幾乎所有人都更瞭解這項法案的內部運作，比你們這些人都更瞭解。

All of a sudden he had a problem and he only developed the problem when he found out that we're going to have to cut the EV mandate.

突然之間，他就有了問題，而他只是在發現我們必須削減電動車授權時才產生了問題。

There are a couple of different thoughts as to why exactly Elon Musk came out to oppose the bill the way he did.

至於埃隆-馬斯克究竟為什麼要以這種方式站出來反對該法案，人們有幾種不同的想法。

One of the things that this bill does is it cuts a tax credit that was encouraging Americans to buy electric vehicles like the ones that Tesla produces.

該法案的內容之一是削減了鼓勵美國人購買電動汽車（如特斯拉生產的電動汽車）的稅收減免。

And Musk has come out and publicly stated that he was upset that these incentives were not kept in the bill and that Republicans tried to cut them.

馬斯克曾公開表示，他對法案中沒有保留這些激勵措施以及共和黨人試圖削減這些措施感到不滿。

Obviously, Tesla is impacted by the EV tax credits getting rolled back in this bill.

很明顯，特斯拉受到了電動汽車稅收抵免回滾法案的影響。

Tesla stock dropped double digits yesterday, really erasing a month of gains.

特斯拉股價昨天下跌了兩位數，真正抹去了一個月來的漲幅。

A couple of folks I've spoken with on the Hill feel that one of the main concerns of Elon Musk is that, you know, he really came in because he was concerned about the level of debt that we currently hold.

與我交談過的幾位國會山人士認為，埃隆-馬斯克的主要擔憂之一是，你知道，他真的是因為擔心我們目前的債務水準才來的。

And there are a lot of folks, I think both on Wall Street and in D.C. who recognize that's a valid concern.

我認為，無論是在華爾街還是在華盛頓特區，都有很多人認識到這是一個合理的擔憂。

We are again heading towards the point where the U.S. is no longer going to be able to pay its debtors.

我們正再次走向美國再也無力償還債務的地步。

And so what this bill would do is it would raise the debt ceiling.

所以這個法案的作用就是提高債務上限。

We don't know exactly the final number at this point, but they're looking in the range of four to five trillion dollars, which would give lawmakers a couple of years of leeway before they'd have to worry about raising the debt limit again.

目前我們還不知道最終的確切數字，但他們正在尋找四到五萬億美元的範圍，這將給立法者幾年的迴旋餘地，然後他們將不得不擔心再次提高債務限額。

Again, this is that interplay between if you want to reduce the debt, you are going to have to find additional sources of revenue and giving tax breaks to companies reduce revenue.

同樣，如果你想減少債務，你就必須找到額外的收入來源，而給公司減稅又會減少收入，這就是兩者之間的相互作用。

So it's even within Musk, you can kind of see this this interesting push and pull.

是以，即使在馬斯克內部，你也能看到這種有趣的推拉作用。

He wants these tax credits to benefit himself and his companies and electric vehicles.

他希望這些稅收減免能讓他自己和他的公司以及電動汽車受益。

However, if he actually wants to reduce the debt, what he would want to do is eliminate those tax credits because that is going to allow more money to come into the U.S. and for the debt to get smaller.

然而，如果他真的想減少債務，他想做的就是取消這些稅收抵免，因為這樣可以讓更多的錢進入美國，讓債務變得更少。

Elon Musk's arc in American society, he is as influential an industrialist as we have maybe ever seen in this country, overseeing cutting edge technology companies in all these different fields, the richest man in the world.

埃隆-馬斯克（Elon Musk）在美國社會的弧度，他是我們這個國家有史以來最有影響力的實業家，監管著所有這些不同領域的尖端技術公司，是世界上最富有的人。

And you look at, you know, so what's the predicate for that role in American society?

你看，你知道，在美國社會中，這種角色的前提是什麼？

This is a man who is incredibly wealthy, who spent millions helping Republicans get elected and boosting them across the country, not just Trump, but many at the congressional level in the 2024 elections.

這個人富可敵國，他花費數百萬美元幫助共和黨人當選，並在全國範圍內助推共和黨人，不僅是特朗普，還有許多人在 2024 年的國會選舉中當選。

And while he said that he wants to step away from politics, he also recently tweeted that he would be working to oust Republicans who supported the Trump mega bill.

雖然他說他想遠離政治，但最近他也在推特上表示，他將努力把支持特朗普巨型法案的共和黨人趕下臺。

And if you're a Republican and you are worried that you might get a primary challenger funded by Musk and with the Musk dollars and the Musk support and the support of a giant megaphone on X behind you, that's something to be concerned about.

如果你是共和黨人，你擔心你可能會遇到一個由馬斯克資助的初選挑戰者，有馬斯克的資金和馬斯克的支持，還有你身後 X 上巨大擴音器的支持，這就值得關注了。

And I think it's something right now that you're seeing Speaker Mike Johnson really try and get in touch with Elon Musk, you know, make sure that he's walking a fine line, he's not criticizing him, he's leaving the door open for conversations.

我認為，現在議長邁克-約翰遜（Mike Johnson）正試圖與埃隆-馬斯克（Elon Musk）取得聯繫，你知道，他要確保自己走在一條正確的道路上，他不是在責備馬斯克，而是在為對話敞開大門。

But this is something I think that congressional leadership recognizes is a big threat, not just to passing this Trump mega bill, but then to their elections in November of 2026.

但我認為，國會領導層認識到這是一個巨大的威脅，這不僅關係到特朗普大型法案的通過，還關係到他們 2026 年 11 月的選舉。

The latest developments in these bills are fundamentally inflationary.

這些法案的最新進展從根本上說是通貨膨脹。

We have a series of senators who have come on this program to talk about their concerns with the bill, including Ron Johnson and Rand Paul, who both have said they will not support the bill in its current status because they think it adds trillions of dollars to the deficit.

羅恩-約翰遜（Ron Johnson）和蘭德-保羅（Rand Paul）等一系列參議員來到本節目，談論他們對該法案的擔憂，他們都表示不會支持該法案的現狀，因為他們認為該法案會增加數萬億美元的赤字。

What I'm urging my Senate colleagues is, OK, let's take what the House said is a starting point, but let's be more aggressive.

我敦促參議院的同事們，好吧，讓我們把眾議院所說的作為一個起點，但讓我們更加積極。

讓我們通過一項真正好的法案。

We're not there yet, but I've got some real hope and optimism that that's what we're going to do.

我們還沒到那一步，但我對我們的未來充滿希望和樂觀。

There's no way to please everyone within the Republican Party.

共和黨內部不可能讓所有人都滿意。

There's no way to give your moderates everything they want and the fiscal hawks everything they want and your blue state Republicans everything they want either.

要想讓溫和派如願以償，讓財政鷹派如願以償，讓藍州共和黨如願以償，也是不可能的。

Everyone's going to have to take some sort of loss here.

在這裡，每個人都要承擔一定的損失。

And I think everyone's goal is that if they can walk away with something, they can at least pitch their constituencies as a win.

我認為，每個人的目標都是，如果他們能有所收穫，至少能讓他們的選民覺得是一場勝利。

The markets know that if you're not bringing in enough revenue to cover your expenses, that's going to be a real problem.

市場知道，如果你的收入不足以支付支出，那將是一個真正的問題。

And the bond market is starting to show that.

債券市場也開始顯示出這一點。

So I'm very concerned about where the Republicans are driving this.

是以，我非常關注共和黨人的推動力。

They can't get where they want to be because they need magic math to be able to fix it.

他們無法達到自己想要的目標，因為他們需要神奇的數學才能解決這個問題。

And you may be able to sell magic math on the floor of the United States Senate to the Republicans, but you can't sell magic math to the American people and particularly to Wall Street and bond markets.

你或許可以在美國參議院向共和黨人兜售神奇的數學，但你無法向美國人民，尤其是華爾街和債券市場兜售神奇的數學。

When you look at Trump's big, beautiful tax bill, you're going to take on that much debt and you combine that with consumer price increases and tariffs, it really makes it hard for the Fed to cut rates and a combination of the instability and higher rates is not great for the IPO bond.

當你看到特朗普大手筆、漂亮的稅收法案時，你將承擔那麼多的債務，再加上消費價格上漲和關稅，這確實讓美聯儲很難降息，而不穩定性和更高利率的結合對 IPO 債券來說並不是好事。

If you're a business or a company in the United States, you need to be able to plan several years down the line.

在美國，如果您是一家企業或公司，您需要有能力制定幾年後的計劃。

And if you're not sure whether or not these taxes are going to be around or how long they're going to be around for, what they're going to look like, that kind of stability can lead to companies stopping certain investments, reeling back on what they're spending, reeling back on their research and development, maybe not even looking to necessarily come to the U.S. but invest in other places.

如果你不確定這些稅收是否會繼續存在，或者它們會存在多久，看起來會是什麼樣子，那麼這種穩定性可能會導致公司停止某些投資，縮減開支，減少研發，甚至可能不一定要來美國，而是去其他地方投資。

But I think to a certain extent, what lawmakers are really endeavoring to do here, at least with the tax portion of the bill, is to provide more of that stability, certainty and clarity.

但我認為，在某種程度上，立法者在這裡真正要做的，至少在法案的稅收部分，是提供更多的穩定性、確定性和清晰度。