Name: 中國房地產崩盤內幕（恆大災難） (Inside China’s Property Collapse (Evergrande Disaster))
Uploaded: 2025-05-26T23:19:05.000Z
Duration: 21 min 39 s

Hi, welcome to another episode of ColdFusion.

大家好，歡迎收看新一期的 ColdFusion。

轉承詞

How did a 1979 panel with David Attenborough result in this?

1979 年與大衛-愛登堡（David Attenborough）的小組討論怎麼會產生這樣的結果？

It's a strange question, but hear me out.

這是個奇怪的問題，但請聽我說完。

In the late 1970s, David Attenborough was having trouble entering China to film his documentaries.

20 世紀 70 年代末，大衛-愛登堡在進入中國拍攝紀錄片時遇到了麻煩。

He decided to join a committee panel in China in order to change this.

為了改變這種狀況，他決定加入中國的一個委員會小組。

Attenborough just happened to ask a Chinese high-up official, Deng Xiaoping, what China was going to do about their rapidly growing population.

阿滕伯勒恰好問中國的一位高級官員鄧小平，中國將如何應對快速增長的人口。

In answering David's question, it was here, on this panel, that China's one-child policy would be revealed to the world.

在回答戴維的問題時，中國的獨生子女政策正是在這個小組向全世界公佈的。

This policy decision would cascade into a myriad of problems, both demographic and economic.

這一政策決定將引發人口和經濟方面的無數問題。

I've covered China's broader economic woes in a previous video, so check the link below if you haven't caught it yet.

我在之前的一段視頻中介紹了中國更廣泛的經濟困境，如果您還沒有看過，請點擊下面的鏈接。

But as for our story, in China, there was now too few young people.

但就我們的故事而言，在中國，現在的年輕人太少了。

The world's most populous country has hit an historic turning point.

這個世界上人口最多的國家迎來了歷史性的轉捩點。

Today, China announced its first population decline in six decades.

今天，中國宣佈了六十年來的首次人口下降。

Government data shows the birth rate at a record low, the fewest babies born last year since the founding of Communist China in 1949.

政府數據顯示，出生率創歷史新低，是自 1949 年中國共產黨成立以來出生人數最少的一年。

But things would only get worse in July of 2022, when a data leak showed that Chinese authorities have over-counted the population by over 100 million young people.

但到了 2022 年 7 月，情況只會變得更糟，因為數據洩露顯示，中國政府多計算了 1 億多年輕人。

China now has too many residential buildings and not enough buyers.

中國現在的住宅樓太多，而購房者不足。

With the real estate market about 30% of China's GDP, and 70% of Chinese wealth tied up in the sector, I don't have to tell you that this is a big deal.

房地產市場約佔中國 GDP 的 30%，中國 70% 的財富都捆綁在這一領域，不用我多說，大家也知道這是一件大事。

At the centre of the crisis is Evergrande, which was once one of China's largest property developers by sales.

恆大曾是中國銷售額最大的房地產開發商之一，是這場危機的核心。

It had 1,300 real estate projects in over 280 cities in China, housing 12 million people.

它在中國 280 多個城市擁有 1 300 個房地產項目，可容納 1200 萬人。

Yet the company is over $320 billion in debt, making it the world's most indebted real estate company.

然而，該公司負債超過 3200 億美元，是世界上負債最多的房地產公司。

With the company filing for bankruptcy and some high-up officials being arrested, analysts fear that this could be China's Lehman Brothers moment.

隨著該公司申請破產和一些高級官員被捕，分析人士擔心，這可能是中國的雷曼時刻。

Since the Chinese economy is the second largest on the planet, it's not hard to see why a total real estate collapse would send shockwaves throughout the world.

由於中國是全球第二大經濟體，是以不難理解為什麼房地產的全面崩潰會給全世界帶來震動。

Now that we have all of this context, how bad will it get?

現在我們有了這些背景，情況會變得有多糟？

To find out, let's take a deeper look into Evergrande itself.

要想知道答案，讓我們深入瞭解一下恆大本身。

Before we continue, I just want to introduce today's sponsor, Brilliant.

在我們繼續之前，我想介紹一下今天的提案人，Brilliant。

A lot of the topics I cover on this channel may seem complicated to some, but now there's an easy and fun way to learn more about them.

對某些人來說，我在本頻道中涉及的許多主題可能看起來很複雜，但現在有了一種簡單有趣的方法來了解更多相關資訊。

Brilliant's interactive courses on anything from computer science to physics make learning fun and easy.

Brilliant 的互動課程涉及從計算機科學到物理學的方方面面，讓學習變得輕鬆有趣。

As I've mentioned before, I really like their Artificial Neural Networks course.

正如我之前提到的，我非常喜歡他們的人工神經網絡課程。

I think that first principles understanding is important.

我認為對第一原則的理解非常重要。

It was a great way to brush up on the fundamentals of modern AI systems.

這是學習現代人工智能系統基礎知識的好方法。

If you want to brush up on your learning, either for leisure or in your professional career, you can get started for free for 30 days, and the first 200 people to sign up get 20% off an annual plan.

如果你想提高學習能力，無論是休閒還是職業生涯，你都可以免費試用 30 天，前 200 名註冊者可享受年度計劃八折優惠。

Visit the URL brilliant.org slash coldfusion to get started.

請訪問 URL brilliant.org slash coldfusion 開始使用。

Evergrande was more than a property developer.

恆大不僅僅是一家房地產開發商。

You might be surprised to know that they dipped their toes into far-reaching fields as far as EVs and theme parks.

你可能會驚訝地發現，他們已經涉足電動汽車和主題公園等意義深遠的領域。

For example, Evergrande New Energy had ambitious goals to compete with Tesla in China and dominate the EV industry by 2025.

例如，恆大新能源雄心勃勃，要在中國與特斯拉競爭，並在 2025 年之前主導電動汽車行業。

They were planning 14 different car models and 5 million cars per year.

他們計劃推出 14 種不同的車型，每年生產 500 萬輛汽車。

Evergrande Spring produces bottled water and claimed to be China's largest water source.

恆大冰泉生產瓶裝水，號稱中國最大的水源地。

Evergrande also owned not one but four soccer teams, and they participated in China's professional league.

恆大還擁有四支足球隊，它們參加了中國的職業聯賽。

Evergrande operated 15 theme parks under the name Fairyland, which aimed to beat Disneyland in both size and service.

恆大以 "童話世界 "為名營運了 15 個主題公園，目標是在規模和服務上超越迪斯尼樂園。

However, beneath the surface, these lofty adventures were funded by a pile of growing debt, but more on that later.

然而，在表面之下，這些崇高冒險的資金來源於一堆不斷增加的債務，但這一點稍後再談。

Evergrande began as a small company in Guangzhou in 1996.

1996 年，恆大從廣州的一家小公司起步。

They grew into a giant due to a lucky break that happened in the 1990s.

由於 20 世紀 90 年代的一次幸運，他們成長為一個巨人。

Economic progress in China had lifted millions from poverty and into the middle class.

中國的經濟進步使數百萬人擺脫了貧困，步入中產階級行列。

In 1998, China allowed households to buy and sell apartments.

1998 年，中國允許家庭買賣公寓。

With countless millions gaining prosperity over the following years, there was a huge surge in housing demand.

在隨後的幾年裡，無數人富裕起來，住房需求也隨之激增。

The government incentivized home ownership, they relaxed mortgage rules, gave tax benefits, and allowed easy bank lending.

政府鼓勵購房，放寬了抵押貸款規定，給予稅收優惠，並允許銀行輕鬆放貸。

Meanwhile, Evergrande's founder, Hui Kaiyan, saw his chance.

與此同時，恆大創始人許家印看到了機會。

To get started, he strategically acquired land at favorable prices from local governments, often providing upfront payments and ambitious sales targets for his employees.

為了起步，他戰略性地以優惠的價格從當地政府購得土地，並經常為員工提供預付款和雄心勃勃的銷售目標。

This approach led to the company's successful IPO in Hong Kong in 2009, and it transformed its founder into a billionaire.

在這種方法的推動下，公司於 2009 年在香港成功上市，其創始人也是以成為億萬富翁。

From 2010 to 2020, Evergrande's revenue increased year on year.

從 2010 年到 2020 年，恆大的收入逐年增長。

At its peak, Evergrande had a market value of $47 billion, and assets worth $353 billion.

巔峰時期，恆大市值達 470 億美元，資產總值達 3530 億美元。

Its portfolio expanded from residential to include commercial real estate, hotels, resorts, schools, hospitals, sports stadiums, and cultural centers.

其投資組合從住宅擴展到商業地產、酒店、度假村、學校、醫院、體育場館和文化中心。

But all would not remain well for the property giant.

但是，這家房地產巨頭的日子並不好過。

A series of events would threaten Evergrande and the stability of the Chinese economy as a whole.

一系列事件將威脅恆大乃至整個中國經濟的穩定。

Evergrande's growth strategy was straightforward.

First, they would borrow money for land acquisition, and then sell these homes to buyers before the homes were even built.

首先，他們會借錢購置土地，然後在房屋尚未建成之前就把這些房屋賣給買家。

They would then use the proceeds to repay lenders and fund the next project.

然後，他們將用所得資金償還貸款人，併為下一個項目提供資金。

This approach, while lucrative, bore the resemblance of a classic Ponzi scheme, the consequences of which would come back to haunt Evergrande.

這種做法雖然有利可圖，但卻類似於典型的龐氏騙局，其後果會讓恆大寢食難安。

It was an aggressive, unsustainable expansion strategy.

這是一種激進的、不可持續的擴張戰略。

In order to work, it relied heavily on perpetual borrowing, and it worked well for two decades, but came at a steep cost.

為了行之有效，它在很大程度上依賴於永久性借貸，並且在二十年內運作良好，但代價高昂。

But Evergrande's massive debt wasn't its only problem.

但恆大的鉅額債務並不是唯一的問題。

Betting on property and national pastime in China was causing further economic problems to brew beneath the surface.

中國的博彩業和國民消遣正在表面之下醞釀著更多的經濟問題。

Property ownership is very important in Chinese culture.

財產所有權在中國文化中非常重要。

Some men even deem it necessary to find a life partner.

有些男人甚至認為有必要找到一個生活伴侶。

During China's one-child policy, parents sadly preferred to keep only male children.

在中國實行獨生子女政策期間，父母們寧願只生男孩子，這讓人感到悲哀。

As a result, today, men outnumber women for those in their mid-40s and below.

是以，如今在 40 歲及以下的中年人中，男性人數超過了女性。

And usually, if a man couldn't afford his own property, their parents would help chip in.

通常情況下，如果一個男人買不起自己的房產，他們的父母會幫忙湊錢。

Over the past few decades, property demand has been driven, in a small part, due to romantic reasons.

在過去的幾十年裡，房地產需求在一定程度上是由浪漫因素驅動的。

As demand for property caused the market to overheat, even more fuel was added to the fire.

隨著房地產需求導致市場過熱，火上澆油的情況更加嚴重。

And this included a lack of other stable investment options in China.

這包括中國缺乏其他穩定的投資選擇。

Investing in real estate is preferred to stocks or bonds.

與股票或債券相比，投資房地產是首選。

這被視為更安全、更有利可圖。

Two, easy access to credit through online platforms and relaxed lending standards.

其二，通過在線平臺和寬鬆的貸款標準輕鬆獲得信貸。

This helped China's household debt-to-GDP ratio surge from 18% in 2009 to a staggering 63.3% by March 2023, a three-fold increase in just 15 years.

這使得中國的家庭債務佔 GDP 的比例從 2009 年的 18% 猛增至 2023 年 3 月的 63.3%，在短短 15 年間增長了三倍。

Number three, an increasing trend in property speculation.

第三，房地產投機活動呈上升趨勢。

Many investors bought properties in developing areas, intending to sell them later at a higher price.

許多投資者購買了發展中地區的房產，打算以後以更高的價格出售。

Before long, tiny apartments in Shanghai were fetching Sydney, London or New York-type prices, despite the wages in Chinese cities being much lower.

不久之後，儘管中國城市的工資水平要低得多，但上海的小公寓卻賣出了雪梨、倫敦或紐約式的價格。

Currently, about 70% of household wealth is invested in real estate.

目前，約 70% 的家庭財富投資於房地產。

So, thinking that there was more demand than there actually was, Evergrande overbuilt in some areas.

是以，恆大認為需求大於實際需求，在一些地區過度擴張。

But why would they think that there was more people left to buy houses than there actually were?

但為什麼他們會認為剩下的買房人比實際人數要多？

The one-child policy was enacted on faulty data.

獨生子女政策是在錯誤的數據基礎上制定的。

The literal rocket scientist who calculated the projected population of China, Song Jian, forgot to factor in decline in China's GDP. birth rates due to women getting educated and contraceptive proliferation.

計算中國人口預測的火箭專家宋健忘記了中國 GDP 的下降因素。

His predictions ended up being completely wrong, the consequences of which would be very serious.

他的預測最終完全錯了，其後果將非常嚴重。

Last year, births in China dropped sharply to 9.56 million.

去年，中國的出生人數急劇下降至 956 萬。

That sounds like a lot, but it's the fewest since 1790.

這聽起來很多，但卻是自 1790 年以來最少的。

A 2022 data leak from the records of Shanghai police showed the details of 1 billion Chinese people.

2022 年上海警方記錄的數據洩露顯示了 10 億中國人的詳細信息。

The leak is believed to be authentic and it paints a staggering picture.

洩漏的資訊據信是真實的，它描繪了一幅令人震驚的畫面。

The population has been over-counted by over 100 million people.

To give you an idea of the scale of the problem, the Chinese government 2020 census showed that there were 18.4 million people who were born in 2017, 30% more that were born in 2002.

中國政府 2020 年人口普查顯示，2017 年出生的人口為 1840 萬，比 2002 年出生的人口多出 30%，由此可見問題的嚴重性。

But the 2022 leaked data says that there weren't 30% more people born in this year, but 70% fewer born than in 2002.

但 2022 年洩露的數據顯示，這一年出生的人數並沒有增加 30%，而是比 2002 年減少了 70%。

This isn't just a miscalculation, but a complete demographic disaster in the making.

這不僅僅是一個誤判，更是一場正在醞釀中的徹底的人口災難。

Soon there's just not going to be enough young people to support the aging generation.

很快，就會沒有足夠的年輕人來支持老齡化的一代。

Demographer Yi Fuxian has looked closely into China for over a decade.

人口學家 Yi Fuxian 十多年來一直在密切關注中國。

His findings line up squarely with the data leaks, giving them more credibility.

他的發現與數據洩露事件完全吻合，是以可信度更高。

In short, Chinese property developers built for a projected population boom, which never happened.

簡而言之，中國的房地產開發商是在預測人口激增的情況下進行建設的，而這種情況從未發生過。